Earthquake probabilities methods encompass quantitative frameworks used to estimate the likelihood of seismic events occurring in specified space-time-magnitude windows. These approaches include time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which treats earthquakes as a Poisson process using long-term occurrence rates, and time-dependent models, such as renewal and stress-transfer-based formulations, which incorporate recurrence intervals, Coulomb stress changes, and fault loading rates. Methods integrate earthquake catalogs, fault slip rates, ground-motion prediction equations, and epistemic/aleatory uncertainty through logic trees or Bayesian inference, producing probabilistic forecasts used for hazard maps, risk assessment, and performance-based seismic design.
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