Record jump in 2014-2016 global temperatures largest since 1900

Record jump in 2014-2016 global temperatures largest since 1900
2016 is officially the new warmest year on record, edging out previous record holder 2015 by 0.07°F, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2016 was the third year in a row that global average surface temperature set a new record. Credit: NASA

Global surface temperatures surged by a record amount from 2014 to 2016, boosting the total amount of warming since the start of the last century by more than 25 percent in just three years, according to new University of Arizona-led research.

"Our paper is the first one to quantify this jump and identify the fundamental reason for this jump," said lead author Jianjun Yin, a UA associate professor of geosciences.

The Earth's average surface climbed about 1.6 degrees F (0.9 C) from 1900 to 2013.

By analyzing global temperature records, Yin and his colleagues found that by the end of 2016, the had climbed an additional 0.43 degrees F (0.24 C).

Co-author Jonathan Overpeck said, "As a climate scientist, it was just remarkable to think that the atmosphere of the planet could warm that much that fast."

The spike in warming from 2014 to 2016 coincided with extreme weather events worldwide, including heat waves, droughts, floods, extensive melting of polar ice and global coral bleaching.

The new research shows that natural variability in the climate system is not sufficient to explain the 2014-2016 temperature increase, said co-author Cheryl Peyser, a UA doctoral candidate in geosciences.

In the current paper, the researchers also projected how frequent such big temperature spikes would be under four different greenhouse emission scenarios. Record-breaking temperature jumps and the accompanying will become more frequent unless greenhouse gas emissions decline, the team found.

Figuring out the mechanism for the temperature spike built on previous work by Peyser, Yin and others.

The earlier work showed that although the Earth's surface warming had slowed from 1998 to 2013, heat from additional atmospheric was being sequestered in the Pacific Ocean. The strong 2015-2016 El Niño roiled the ocean and released all the stored heat, causing a big jump in the Earth's .

"Our research shows global warming is accelerating," Yin said.

The research paper, "Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases," by Yin, Overpeck, Peyser and Ronald Stouffer, a UA adjunct instructor in geosciences, is online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Overpeck is dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

This animation shows annual temperatures each year since 1880, ending with record-warm 2016. Blue indicates temperatures cooler than the 20th-century average and red indicates temperatures warmer than the 20th century. Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The Visiting Scientist Program of Princeton University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation funded the research.

In early 2017, Yin and Overpeck were having lunch at Wilko, a restaurant near the University of Arizona campus, and Yin mentioned how fast the globe was warming.

Overpeck said, "I knew it was warming a lot, but I was surprised at how much it warmed and surprised at his insight into the probable mechanism."

The two scientists began brainstorming about expanding on Peyser and Yin's previous work.

The researchers analyzed observations of global mean surface temperatures from 1850 to 2016, ocean heat content from 1955 to 2016, sea level records from 1948 to 2016 and records of the El Niño climate cycle and a longer climate cycle called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—15 different datasets in all.

The analysis showed the 0.43 F (0.24 C) global temperature increase from 2014 to 2016 was unprecedented in the 20th and 21st centuries.

Although some release of heat from the Pacific Ocean is normal during an El Niño, the researchers found much of the heat released in 2014-2015 was due to additional warming from increases in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Yin said, "The result indicates the fundamental cause of the large record-breaking events of global temperature was greenhouse-gas forcing rather than internal climate variability alone."

The researchers also projected how often a 0.43 F (0.24 C) global temperature increase might occur in the 21st century depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted worldwide between now and 2100. The team used four representative concentration pathway, or RCP, models that project future climate change between 2006 and 2100.

For the low-emission RCP scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2020 and decline thereafter, temperature jumps of at least 0.43 F (0.24 C) might occur from zero to one time in the 21st century, the team found.

For the highest-emission RCP scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions rise unabated throughout the 21st century, spikes of record warm temperatures would occur three to nine times by 2100. Under this scenario, such events would likely be warmer and longer than the 2014-2016 spike and have more severe impacts.The world is on track for one of the higher emission scenarios, Peyser said. Adapting to the increases in the frequency, magnitude and duration of rapid warming events projected by the higher emission scenario will be difficult, the scientists write.

Yin said, "If we can reduce , we can reduce the number of large record-breaking events in the 21st century—and also we can reduce the risk."


Explore further

2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean

More information: Jianjun Yin et al, Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases, Geophysical Research Letters (2018). DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076500
Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters

Citation: Record jump in 2014-2016 global temperatures largest since 1900 (2018, January 24) retrieved 18 September 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2018-01-global-temperatures-largest.html
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Jan 24, 2018
It feels so hot.

Jan 24, 2018
The researchers analyzed observations of global mean surface temperatures from 1850 ?
What weather stations where there in 1850?
What weather stations where there in Africa in 1850
What weather stations where there in South America and Russia?

Jan 24, 2018
The researchers analyzed observations of global mean surface temperatures from 1850 ?
What weather stations where there in 1850?
What weather stations where there in Africa in 1850
What weather stations where there in South America and Russia?


Really clutching at straws there @unrealone. Keep floundering. The world will continue apace.

Jan 24, 2018
The researchers analyzed observations of global mean surface temperatures from 1850 ?
What weather stations where there in 1850?
What weather stations where there in Africa in 1850
What weather stations where there in South America and Russia?

Its inferred.

Jan 24, 2018
The researchers analyzed observations of global mean surface temperatures from 1850 ?
What weather stations where there in 1850?
What weather stations where there in Africa in 1850
What weather stations where there in South America and Russia?

Its inferred.


I love the fact the biggest argument these people can muster is that statisticians are doing statistics. It's like "but NASA produced those statistics using statistical methods!"
I guess now the University of Arizona is committing the great crime of producing data by using data methods.

Jan 24, 2018
Yes however it has a 95% confidence interval of 2 orders of magnitude, so it is good!

Jan 24, 2018
Would you like a frog or tangerine?

Jan 25, 2018
Where were the weather stations in 1850.
In Africa, Atlantic ocean, Pacific ocean Russia, India?
The animation clearly show temperature data going back to 1850?
But there are no weather stations at these locations?
India data only goes back about 60 years, not the 1850's?

Jan 25, 2018
@unrealone1 - it is quite easy to look up how scientists get this information. Google is your friend dude.

Jan 25, 2018
Where were the weather stations in 1850.
In Africa, Atlantic ocean, Pacific ocean Russia, India?
The animation clearly show temperature data going back to 1850?
But there are no weather stations at these locations?
India data only goes back about 60 years, not the 1850's?

So you really think that Victorian gentlemen amateur scientists around the world were not interested in weather and climate when the Royal Meteorological Society was founded in 1850. The thermometer was invented by Galileo in 1597 and the barometer was invented by Torricelli in 1643. You think the Victorians didn't use them for recording local weather conditions when they emigrated to the Raj and other places in the Empire? It's as simple as a few Google queries: do your own background research in future, you f*ing idiot.

Jan 25, 2018
There is no data going back to 1850 in New Zealand, New Guinea , Africa or Alice Springs?
"Faith" based data.

Jan 25, 2018
It's "were" not "where"...!

Jan 25, 2018
On 31st December 2017 (midnight CET) the Earth's global population was 8,844,128,002.
As of the year 1900, the Earth's global population was 1,660,990,034.
If that happens again in the next hundred years, we are all dead.
https://billymeie...ollapse/

Jan 25, 2018
Data from around the world not occupied by Western culture did not record temps. The 1850 forward temperatures have been determined (Wild Ass Guess) by proxies, i.e. tree rings, coral growth, coal soot in arctic snow cover, etc. The record setting highs of the 1930s Dust Bowl don't fit the larger body of proxy and inferred temps therefore they do not show up in the IPCC data sets. In developing their climate predictions any one of a number of different data sets of the IPCC are used. There are a bunch of them and you can choose whichever best fits your hypothesis.

Its magic.


Jan 25, 2018
meanwhile in Davos ;
I've never seen a warmunist complain about air travel ,even though '''report shows that there are 37.4 million flights scheduled in 2014! That is up 2.7% from 2013. And it means an average of 102,465 flights per day. ''' , thats co2 directly into the tropopause. You just have to live the jetset lifestyle if you are an apparatchik.

http://www.breitb...m=social

Jan 26, 2018
It is not warm enough for me yet. I believe in global warming, but pretty sure this is cooking the books.

Jan 27, 2018
@unrealone1

There is no data going back to 1850 in New Zealand, New Guinea , Africa or Alice Springs?
"Faith" based data.


This is the global mean surface temperature data used by in this study

HadCRUT4 UK Met Office 1850-2016 https://doi.org/1...JD017187
GISTEMP NASA GISS 1880-2016 https://doi.org/1...RG000345
NOAAGlobalTemp NOAA NCEI 1880-2016 https://doi.org/1...-00241.1
JMA Japanese Meteorol. Agency 1891-2016 https://doi.org/1...9-0027-7
Berkeley Berkeley Earth 1850-2016 https://doi.org/1...mate3213
Cowtan&Way University of York 1850-2016 https://doi.org/1.../qj.2297

You ask these questions but never actually explain what your issue is. Do you think all these data sets are falsified, do you really think it's all one massive conspiracy? If not how do you explain the above?

Jan 27, 2018

From the abstract of :

https://journals....-00241.1
From the abstract of "NOAA's Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis

"In general, the new release exhibits only modest differences with its predecessor, the most obvious being very slightly more warming at the global scale (0.004°C decade−1 since 1901) and slightly different trend patterns over the terrestrial surface." MLOST version 3.5

When such precision of .004 C or 4/1000 degree is achieved one has to ask whether it was tweaked, selective, or what method was used to data fit, i.e. linear, exponential, logarithmic, 1/x^2, etc. Being version 3.5 it would appear they have been reanalyzing the data a very many times. After a while Prince Charming will pop. This is not to contradict the point. One reason the 1930 Dustbowl temps are excluded is because many are considered heat traps (urban centers). It's like the drought and temps weren't a joint event.

Jan 28, 2018
Hockey-stick, hockey-stick, hockey-stick... ummm hockey-stick. Obviously the global temperatures are following a hockey-stick type rise following scientific consensus about global temperature rise. It's tracking very nearly one to one with CO2 levels that are also hockey-stick like growth Since it's all following a worst case scenario thanks to a bunch of climate denying Trump lovers, If you want your future family to survive, you will need to find a location to live that the climate provide the best conditions to grow food and has plenty fresh water available. You will also need immediately a good air conditioning system, something designed to work well in heat past 100F (in USA). If your a red stater still burning coal, you should invest in a good water purification system (to remove fly-ash pond water) and a good air-purifier too for soot.
Of course you need to protect yourself from liberalism and the Obama FEMA re-education camps for re-training the deplorables.

Jan 28, 2018
'' If not how do you explain the above? ''

its a private club

Jan 29, 2018
Nope it's called science, something that goes into your one ear and out of the other. Signing in to your barrage of uneducated sockpuppets above does not change the facts.

Jan 29, 2018
Meanwhile in Japan ,,

https://www.armst...8-years/

nope its called reality


Jan 29, 2018
"Tokyo has been hit by the Global Cooling as well." Global Cooling!!! Head for the tropics before its to late.

Jan 29, 2018
"Tokyo has been hit by the Global Cooling as well." Global Cooling!!! Head for the tropics before its to late.

Jan 29, 2018
Like usual, the #climatedeniers have another whole raft of excuses.

Excuses are like azzholes. Everybody's got one and they all stink.

Jan 29, 2018
Like usual, the #climatedeniers have another whole raft of excuses.

Excuses are like azzholes. Everybody's got one and they all stink.


Is it the premise that is being challenged or how the premise is being supported?

These are two different things.

Should Algore be used to support the premise? I don't think so.

Jan 29, 2018
Meanwhile in Japan ,,

https://www.armst...8-years/

nope its called reality
idiot snoosebum et al

learn to read: see also - Francis, Vavrus et al.

.

if ya can't comprehend the science, perhaps you should re-read some of the explanations you ignored over the years


Jan 29, 2018
Our paper is the first one to quantify this jump and identify the fundamental reason for this jump

If the "fundamental reason" is anything other than El Niño then no, they didn't identify it.

natural variability in the climate system is not sufficient to explain the 2014-2016 temperature increase

Ummm...yes it is. The same thing happened in 1998 due to an exceptional El Niño. In fact, eyeballing the graph, it looks like the temperature jump in 1998 was more than the one between 2014 and 2016. But if you flog the data enough I guess you can make it say anything you want. See here:

https://www.nsstc..._bar.png

Here's a summary of El Niño and La Niña events, showing excellent correlation to temperature spikes.

http://ggweather..../oni.htm


Jan 29, 2018
The instrumental temperature data in 1850 was extremely sparse. Sure, HadCRUT and others go back that far, but there were only a handful of stations. Extrapolating "global" temperature from a few stations is an exercise in statistical prestidigitation.

Speaking of magic, the modern terrestrial temperature record, which now includes thousands of stations, extrapolates temperature data in the Arctic circle and Antarctica from a relatively small number of stations to represent tens of thousands of square miles where there are no actual stations ("gridded data"). The coverage over the oceans, which represent two-thirds of Earth's surface is even more sparse. Manufacturing temperatures where there are no measurements throws suspicion over the accuracy of HadCRUT, GISTEMP and others.

Satellite telemetry that covers about 98% of the globe represents a global average temperature much more reliably. See the UAH and RSS temperature series and how they differ from the others.

Jan 29, 2018
One thing to consider is the need for multiple data sets. If the science of backing into past temps is good, then the data sets should converge to one. Being that they are proliferating doesn't add to credibility.

Jan 29, 2018
I keep thinking about Dubai
http://www.sofite...de.shtml

-Most of this real estate was developed in the last few decades. Who will be living here when the outside temps become unbearable? How will they earn a living? Will the city become flooded if the seas rise?

Its also a mystery to me how the Venetians support themselves but maybe this iwll also be moot in a few decades.

Jan 29, 2018
I keep thinking about Dubai
http://www.sofite...de.shtml

-Most of this real estate was developed in the last few decades. Who will be living here when the outside temps become unbearable? How will they earn a living? Will the city become flooded if the seas rise?


This is why the Dubians are 1000% pro renewables. That place is half a degree from disappearing back into the desert as it is.

I think Venetians are resigned as they were going to lose Venice anyway. It's only the timeframe that's changed.

Jan 30, 2018
I think Venetians are resigned as they were going to lose Venice anyway. It's only the timeframe that's changed
What makes you think that?

"The MOSE barrier, which is scheduled to be operational in 2018, was designed to protect Venice from a storm surge and save the sinking city from oblivion."

"A ban on groundwater pumping halted the city's subsidence (or at least slowed it to its current rate, 1 millimeter or so a year)"

-??

Feb 01, 2018
Satellite telemetry that covers about 98% of the globe represents a global average temperature much more reliably. See the UAH and RSS temperature series and how they differ from the others.


Comparing satellite and surface temperatures is comparing apples to oranges.

http://images.rem...ies.html

Look at the graph on the left and see how the lowest level temperature data (TLT) is influenced by temperatures at altitudes of up to 10km. Now select the TTS data that is centered at 10km and you will note that there is a much lower anomaly at higher altitudes. In short the global surface temperature data cannot be directly compared to the satellite lower troposphere data due to the different rates of warming at different altitudes.

Now look at the lower stratosphere data (TLS), something appears to be slowing the rate of heat transfer from the troposphere causing the lower stratosphere to cool. What do you think that is?

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