What rising seas mean for local economies

February 15, 2019, Stanford University
Storm surge floods Dock Street in downtown Annapolis, Maryland. Credit: Matt Rath/Chesapeake Bay Program

Impacts from climate change are not always easy to see. But for many local businesses in coastal communities across the United States, the evidence is right outside their doors—or in their parking lots.

That evidence isn't just present in the form of more frequent flooding. According to a new study published Feb. 15 in the journal Science Advances, it is also revealed as a financial price for business. Stanford graduate student Miyuki Hino and her colleagues found that downtown Annapolis, Maryland's state capital, suffered a loss of 3,000 visits in 2017 due to high-tide flooding, which equates to a loss of somewhere between $86,000 and $172,000 in revenue.

"Small businesses in downtown Annapolis rely on visitors. By measuring the extent of the impact of flooding, we can understand the business case—how is already impacting businesses' experiences and profits," said Samanthe Belanger, a co-author and Stanford MBA student at the time of the study.

More frequent flooding

High-tide flooding, sometimes called nuisance or sunny-day flooding, happens when ocean waters rise above the levels that coastal infrastructure was designed for. Water sweeps in, filling streets and and preventing normal pedestrian and vehicle traffic.

Once relatively rare, high-tide flooding days have increased about 60 percent from 20 years ago, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In 27 locations across the U.S., the number of high-tide flooding days went from an average of 2.1 days per year in the late 1950s to 11.8 during 2006-10. By 2035, about 170 are projected to experience 26 high-tide flooding days a year.

"As and sea levels rise, high-tide flooding becomes more frequent," said Hino, who is in the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources. "For coastal businesses, that means more days when customers might not be able to get to their store. Even though most floods only last for a few hours, their impacts can add up."

Researchers explain how increased high-tide flooding is affecting local businesses in Annapolis, MD. Credit: Rob Jordan/Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment

Annapolis, home to the U.S. Naval Academy, tops the list of cities experiencing increases in high-tide flooding. In the early 1960s, Annapolis had about four high-tide flooding days a year. In 2017, the small city on Chesapeake Bay experienced 63 high-tide flooding days.

"In Annapolis, as in many places, high-tide flooding is happening right in the heart of things. The historic district is a favorite among locals and tourists alike. It is now frequently flooding," said Katharine Mach, a senior research scientist at Stanford's School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences and a co-author on the study.

Turned away by water

Researchers used parking meters, satellite imagery, interviews and other data to determine how would-be customers were dissuaded from visiting during flood hours at a popular business region near the water known as City Dock. They found no evidence that customers were returning after the floods had subsided or parked somewhere nearby and braved the water to make it to businesses.

"So often we think of and sea level rise as these huge ideas happening at a global scale, but high-tide flooding is one way to experience these changes in your daily life just trying to get to your restaurant reservation," Hino said.

In 2017, the loss to City Dock businesses due to flooding was less than 2 percent of annual visitors, but the researchers warn that could get a lot worse as sea levels continue to rise. The study projects that if sea level increases by 3 more inches, visits to City Dock would be reduced by about 4 percent. With 12 inches of sea level rise, visits would be reduced by about 24 percent, a figure that could mean hundreds of thousands in lost revenue. The U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report has sea level rise projections relative to the year 2000 ranging between 0.5 and 1.2 feet by 2050.

"What we're finding is something many local leaders in coastal cities already know: the waters are rising up and surging into daily life. So are the costs," Mach said. "Understanding the impacts for people today—at large and small scale—is an essential starting point for making smart adjustments to the risks."

Explore further: Report: US high-tide flooding twice what it was 30 years ago

More information: M. Hino el al., "High-tide flooding disrupts local economic activity," Science Advances (2019). advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/2/eaau2736

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aksdad
2.7 / 5 (12) Feb 15, 2019
The U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report has sea level rise projections relative to the year 2000 ranging between 0.5 and 1.2 feet by 2050.

In Annapolis, it looks like it will be about 0.57 feet of sea level rise, based on the current linear trend of 3.57 ±0.20 mm/yr.

https://tidesandc...=8575512

Interestingly, when you look at the station data for Annapolis, sea level rise was faster from 1929 to 1949 than it was for any 20 year period between 1978 and 2018. In other words, sea level rise in Annapolis is slower now than it was between 1929 and 1949.

Sea level rise is a serious concern for some low-lying coastal communities. It's been happening for thousands of years and will continue to happen until the earth begins another glacial period, if it follows the same pattern of the last 800,000 years.

https://www.clima...arge.png
howhot3
4 / 5 (12) Feb 16, 2019
And what part of sea level rise is not getting to your head? So you're estimating a small level of sea level rise for a coastal urban area will be the norm. People will get it, and fix the problem. You're wrong. It's amazing how clueless you climate deniers are.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.7 / 5 (12) Feb 16, 2019
@howhot3
It so happens that aksdad is correct whether you like it or not. It's got nothing to do with denying climate change/global warming or whatever you want to call it. The facts are still valid from the past, whether 10 years ago or 100,000 years ago. The Earth is so dynamic and changeable which is why there were times of plenty and then times of famine. Even arid deserts where it's so dry that only cactus grows on the land can have sudden rainstorms and flash floods where hikers have been killed if they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.
It is winter now. Surely you must have read about all the snowstorms in the midwest and northeastern parts of the US where people were left without electricity to heat their homes and cook.food.. That is also climate change because the climate is ALWAYS CHANGING. Long before fossil fuels were being used there was climate change. Would you rather have humans freezing to death in order to keep fossil fuels in the ground?
Da Schneib
2.3 / 5 (7) Feb 16, 2019
@Soviet_Rape_Unit better run quick. Here come the cesspool rope gangs.
greenonions1
3.9 / 5 (11) Feb 16, 2019
SEU
Would you rather have humans freezing to death in order to keep fossil fuels in the ground?
Interesting question - right? But it is of course a false -and childishly simple dichotomy. If we study the universe - we can develop our understanding. Pretty amazing right - how astronomers can tell us the age and composition of stars - billions of light years away. What happened 14 billion years ago (hint - it starts with a b). Etc. etc. etc. So - that community of scientists - who are bringing us all this amazing understanding - are telling us that pumping green house gasses into our atmosphere - is very worrisome. There are other issue of concern also - https://www.scien...and-why/ So when you - and other deniers - present yourself as smarter than all these scientists - and tell us that we have to listen to your opinion - over the science - we call you deniers.
MR166
2.2 / 5 (10) Feb 16, 2019
No real Co2 induced acceleration here

https://tidesandc...=8575512

2.8mm/year here
http://sealevel.c...ea-level

Part of the apparent rise is due to the land sinking.

https://www.cfact...sidence/

Of course the inference in most of these propaganda pieces is that Co2 if the cause of these problems because THAT is where the money is to be made.
greenonions1
3.9 / 5 (11) Feb 16, 2019
MR
No real Co2 induced acceleration here
And you then produce a graph from NOAA that shows that even over the past 120 years - there has been sea level rise of 3.5 mm per year, and also shows that trend is accelerating. So what is causing the warming that is responsible for that trend MR? Also - what are your credentials for telling us that your opinion is more important than the body of science?
MR166
2.6 / 5 (10) Feb 16, 2019
Onions any acceleration in the NOAA graph is minuscule.
greenonions1
4 / 5 (12) Feb 16, 2019
Onions any acceleration in the NOAA graph is minuscule
But it is significant - as we are talking a very short time period geologically speaking. So - in response to being called out as a fat liar - for saying that there is 'No real Co2 induced acceleration here.' You move the goal posts - and start down a whole new rabbit hole - arguing that it is just a tiny acceleration. You deniers are just stupid. You have no science on your side - and no credibility on the topic - but you keep insisting that we should all be in awe or YOUR opinion - but you can't give us one reason why we should do that - cuz you don't know shit. Guess what? I don't know shit either - but I am not the one claiming that thousands and thousands of highly trained scientists are lying - to make themselves rich. What a jerk you are.
zz5555
3.9 / 5 (11) Feb 16, 2019
In Annapolis, it looks like it will be about 0.57 feet of sea level rise, based on the current linear trend of 3.57 ±0.20 mm/yr.

Yes, taking a linear trend over a long term is a good way to hide any acceleration. Interestingly, from your link: https://tidesandc...ion=USNA , we see that Ocean City, MD has a trend of 5.59 mm/yr - much more than Annapolis about 111 miles away. From that page:
The graphs give an indication of the differing rates of vertical land motion, given that the absolute global sea level rise is believed to be 1.7 +/- 0.3 millimeters/year.during the 20th century.

So they acknowledge that this isn't really just sea level rise - it's sea level rise + land movement - so you can't really look at these plots alone and get sea level rise.
zz5555
3.8 / 5 (10) Feb 16, 2019
How do you remove the land movement? There are a number of ways. Here's one: https://tamino.wo...-record/ . As you can see, when land movement is removed, it's clear that sea level rise is accelerating. And that acceleration is exponential. This data agrees well with a number of other independent studies, so the results appear robust. How much will it rise? Also from your link: https://tidesandc...=8575512 . When we look at how models have done compared with actual data, the data's always on the high side of the models, so > 2m is a pretty safe bet by 2100. And from other studies, it's understood why the sea levels are rising: expansion from warming oceans and melting glaciers (https://www.natur...mate2991 ). So increased levels of CO2 are responsible for the acceleration.
zz5555
4.1 / 5 (13) Feb 16, 2019
It's been happening for thousands of years and will continue to happen until the earth begins another glacial period, if it follows the same pattern of the last 800,000 years.

Yes, but we all know that we're no longer following the same pattern as the last 800000 years. The additional warming and forcings due to manmade climate change have seen to that.
Old_C_Code
2.2 / 5 (10) Feb 16, 2019
Impacts from climate change are not always easy to see.


So we'll display storm surge images to pretend the flooding is catastrophic.
Old_C_Code
2.3 / 5 (9) Feb 16, 2019
You deniers are just stupid. You have no science on your side


But your science is showing storm surge images.

Fraud.
greenonions1
4.2 / 5 (11) Feb 16, 2019
old-code
But your science is showing storm surge images Fraud
Here is the science article http://advances.s...eaau2736

You have nothing to say about the actual science. So you nit pick the picture chosen by the popular web site Physorg - that uses pictures as a way of bringing our attention to science articles - and of course looking for clicks. So you don't understand the difference between the actual science, and a web site - that is making money off clicks. Pretty stupid aren't you?

Of course - storm surges are a part of the science - and a responsible society will pay attention to that science - and to the implications for low lying regions of the world - as sea levels continue to rise - and areas become threatened by storm surges. No - it is not a fraud - to want to be awake to the facts as they come available. - https://www.clima...g-waters
Old_C_Code
2.3 / 5 (9) Feb 16, 2019
Here is the science


You are a climate alarmist. We've been listening to your political horse chit for 30 years.

Things are better then ever before in human history. Yet you insist on alarmist BS, and we're all about to die.

Loser.
greenonions1
3.9 / 5 (11) Feb 16, 2019
You are a climate alarmist
Because I want us to listen to the science?
Things are better then ever before in human history
What does that have to do with the science of climate change? You are an idiot - and you can't keep your information straight. What does 'better' actually mean? What are you talking about - when you use that term? Are you talking economics, or what? I would agree that the human race has made progress in some areas - such as medicine, energy generation, computers etc. etc. So what? That has nothing to do with the climate. That does not change the reality - that there are now nearly 8 billion of us on the planet - and we face some very serious challenges. I have a very good quality of life. So what? That has nothing to do with the warming of our planet. Why don't you learn to think more carefully - instead of wanting to drown us in your five year old opinions?
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.2 / 5 (10) Feb 16, 2019
SEU
Would you rather have humans freezing to death in order to keep fossil fuels in the ground?
Interesting question - right? But it is of course a false -and childishly simple dichotomy.
says greenonions

It may be a "false and childishly simple dichotomy to YOU and other climate fear-mongers - but those who are freezing in their homes due to lack of electrical power - and possibly dying of hypothermia - not to mention burst water pipes - would take exception to your inability to empathise with their desperate plight that cannot be alleviated, unless and until warmer weather returns.
They freeze, but you don't seem to care - at least as long as YOU are comfortable. Your obvious lack of caring about others in their times of need tells me that you are a very unfeeling person, thinking only of your OWN NEEDS.
At this time - the US has an enormous amount of petrol under the land and water surfaces. I don't like oil wells in bodies of water, though.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.2 / 5 (10) Feb 16, 2019
-contd-
says green onions
If we study the universe - we can develop our understanding. Pretty amazing right - how astronomers can tell us the age and composition of stars - billions of light years away. What happened 14 billion years ago (hint - it starts with a b). Etc. etc. etc.


So do tell us what has the Big Bang theory and the composition of Stars have to do with the fact that severe winter storms and ice on roofs and broken water pipes and hot water heaters not working when the electric grid is out of commission due to those severe winter storms in the midwest and northeast? Is that evidence of anthropogenic globalwarming/climatechange at work? And where such severe weather conditions are life-threatening to good humans who put their faith and trust in utility companies to get them through a hard winter.
Do you, perhaps, live in South Florida, Arizona, Cuba or Venezuela where shirt sleeves and shorts are the clothing of choice in the winter months?
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.2 / 5 (10) Feb 16, 2019
says greenonions
So - that community of scientists - who are bringing us all this amazing understanding - are telling us that pumping green house gasses into our atmosphere - is very worrisome. There are other issue of concern also - https://www.scien...and-why/ So when you - and other deniers - present yourself as smarter than all these scientists - and tell us that we have to listen to your opinion - over the science - we call you deniers.


Insect populations are not dying off due to cars, trucks, airplanes, buses and trains running on fossil fuels. Take the blame to where it belongs - Monsanto. Monsanto scientists have been poisoning the insects to prevent destruction of food crops, and gardeners and farmers are most likely still spraying RoundUp to kill the gnawing, sucking, chewing bugs.
Whenever you go out to the woods - be sure to NOT use insect repellent for mosquito bites.
RealityCheck
3.4 / 5 (5) Feb 16, 2019
@Surveillance_Egg_Unit.
severe winter storms and ice on roofs and broken water pipes and hot water heaters not working when the electric grid is out of commission due to those severe winter storms in the midwest and northeast? Is that evidence of anthropogenic globalwarming/climatechange at work?
Yes, that is exactly what climate scientists predicted would happen as more energy retained in Earth system, causing destabilisation/extremes of previously tolerable/predictable cold/hot/drought/flood/confluence etc events. I myself long warned disasters becoming 'back-to-back', and so UNRECOVERABLE from before next one hits. This is happening NOW all over the globe, especially in OZ.
Insect populations are not dying off due to cars, trucks, airplanes, buses and trains running on fossil fuels. Take the blame to where it belongs - Monsanto.
True enough. But everything is exacerbated even more by changing climate/patterns increasing diseases/destroying habitats etc. Complex.
greenonions1
4.6 / 5 (9) Feb 16, 2019
SEU
So do tell us what has the Big Bang theory and the composition of Stars have to do with the fact that severe winter storms
I am sorry - I was making a complex point - obviously way over your head. The point is that science is an amazing way of learning about our universe. It is a complex - and collaborative process. You obviously don't understand that. Scientists are constantly building on the knowledge. Standing on the shoulders of giants so to speak. Those scientists - highly trained/educated/experienced in specific field folks - have brought us incredible volumes of knowledge/understanding. They are the ones warning us of the risks of global warming. What are your qualifications for questioning this body of understanding? cont.
greenonions1
4.6 / 5 (9) Feb 16, 2019
cont. On the subject of compassion. I think it the denier community that lacks empathy and compassion. Arrogant assholes - who are so full of their own importance, and ego, that they think they know better than the science community. I am the one promoting the idea of actually listening to the scientists - and wondering if we can become more intelligent in terms of our organization on this planet. See if we can bring a high quality of life to every person on the planet - at the same time as not destroying our environment. It is a tough challenge. I think that renewable energy is at the heart of that challenge - and despite the cost factor - I personally support the use of nuclear. I hope we can develop next gen nukes - and use them to desalinate water - revolutionize our farming - and turn huge swaths of the planet back to wild land. But I want SCIENCE to lead the process. I think it is deniers who are the arrogant/cruel assholes - who don't care about their actions,
greenonions1
4.4 / 5 (7) Feb 16, 2019
Insect populations are not dying off due to cars, trucks, airplanes, buses and trains running on fossil fuels
there are plenty of reasons to expect declines. Widespread use of insecticides is one obvious one. Others include habitat loss and degradation; declines in or disappearance of plants or animals that specific insects depend on for food and shelter; displacement by nonnative species; air, water and light pollution; the global spread of insect diseases; climate change; and even, says Wagner, nitrification due to fossil-fuel burning
Yes SEU - I have read a number of articles on the subject. Above is what the SCIENTISTS have so far concluded. Do you know better than the scientists? Side note - I am a back yard farmer - use no chemicals - and hope to see my intensive urban growing system adopted world wide. What are you doing?
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.1 / 5 (7) Feb 16, 2019
SEU
So do tell us what has the Big Bang theory and the composition of Stars have to do with the fact that severe winter storms
I am sorry - I was making a complex point - obviously way over your head. The point is that science is an amazing way of learning about our universe. It is a complex - and collaborative process. You obviously don't understand that. Scientists are constantly building on the knowledge. Standing on the shoulders of giants so to speak. Those scientists - highly trained/educated/experienced in specific field folks - have brought us incredible volumes of knowledge/understanding. They are the ones warning us of the risks of global warming. What are your qualifications for questioning this body of understanding? cont.


You presume way too much regarding my understanding of complex issues. And what are YOUR qualifications for disagreeing with the opposition and the validity of their misgivings on AGW? You have none, but your tears.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2 / 5 (8) Feb 16, 2019
cont. On the subject of compassion. I think it the denier community that lacks empathy and compassion. Arrogant assholes - who are so full of their own importance, and ego, that they think they know better than the science community. I am the one promoting the idea of actually listening to the scientists - and wondering if we can become more intelligent in terms of our organization on this planet. See if we can bring a high quality of life to every person on the planet - at the same time as not destroying our environment. But I want SCIENCE to lead the process. I think it is deniers who are the arrogant/cruel assholes - who don't care about their actions,

says green o

Many things of Earth and space are self-evident. AGW is not one of them.
Again you are presuming too much about the disbelievers in AGW. They have at least as much, if not more empathy and caring about their fellow humans as you do. If they didn't, they would not be arguing with your kind over it.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
1.9 / 5 (9) Feb 17, 2019
-contd-
@green o
You place too much faith in climate scientists and their delusions of grandeur as the "bringers of the light of truth" to save mankind from the horrors of changes in climate/weather that already have been occurring throughout millions of years - if not billions.
In truth, you and they are Globalists - where those who are working toward and for complete Globalisation of every nation on Earth will eventually learn to accept and comply with the Socialist/Marxist philosophy/ideology that the Elites within such governments and corporations will demand of all humans to OBEY. Anthropogenic global warming/climate change is but the beginning that will eventually FORCE every human to comply and obey - or suffer the judicial consequences.
For such a world organisation, it isn't enough to induce populations to recycle and use less fossil fuels - they will insist on NO fossil fuel usage - except for theirselves, of course. Travel to Hawaii means airplanes.
Da Schneib
3.3 / 5 (7) Feb 17, 2019
So what's using outmoded technology for light bulbs gain?

Just askin'.

See, you just make sweeping statements that aren't supported by either the science or the economics. And you never mention who's making the money from the outmoded tech.
greenonions1
4.5 / 5 (8) Feb 17, 2019
And what are YOUR qualifications for disagreeing with the opposition
None. I defer to the community of scientists. I am good with that. When I got cancer - I went to the oncologist - and did what he told me. I have been cancer free for 10 years - but still go back to be checked every year. I think that if I want to make the assertion that Dr's are liars - and don't know how to cure cancer - it THEN becomes my responsibility to show my qualifications and data.
In truth, you and they are Globalists
Now the mask comes off. I keep hearing this term from a certain group. They are usually wearing MAGA hats. I had not heard the term until started hearing Steve Bannon using it. I think I understand what you mean by it. Politically I have no views that could be called 'globalist' - other than perhaps my belief that all men (people) are created equal. Someone else said that - right?cont.
greenonions1
4.5 / 5 (8) Feb 17, 2019
They have at least as much, if not more empathy and caring about their fellow humans as you do
Bullshit. You have a political agenda - and don't give a shit about people who are suffering. You make that clear by calling me a 'globalist.' You toss around political terms - when they really have no relevance - showing me that your interest is in pushing a political agenda. When I advocate for using science as the process of unfolding our understanding of the universe (as opposed to say reading a holy text, or listening to a messiah), that has nothing to do with politics. It is about critical thinking. When you start tossing in your political word salad - you take off the mask.
greenonions1
4.5 / 5 (8) Feb 17, 2019
You presume way too much regarding my understanding of complex issues
Not at all. I made a complex point - and used our amazing understanding of the composition of stars, and events that happened 14 billion years ago - as examples of that point. The point was lost on you. Your response was that of a child. I had to break the point down for you. Perhaps you could try reading some books - taking some science classes - doing some other things to develop your critical thinking faculties.
howhot3
4.3 / 5 (6) Feb 17, 2019
"We are living today in a world that has warmed by just one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s, when records began on a global scale. We are adding planet-warming carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at a rate faster than at any point in human history since the beginning of industrialization." It's a problem we have created, we know about it, we understand the complex physics and atmospherics to model it, project out to the future and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is stifled by a few trolls and flakoes that have agendas that work against the worlds best interests.

I think the "Green new deal" is certainly a needed entry point to beat back the lunacy of climate change denial.
snoosebaum
1 / 5 (4) Feb 17, 2019
howhot3
4.2 / 5 (5) Feb 17, 2019
@snoosebaum, you do realize that you're part of the problem and not part of the solution? Don't you? Even Bill Gates one of the richest men in the world recognizes the situation that mankind is put it self in with greenhouse gas emissions. The situation mankind faces is immediate very grave. It's on you to recognize how stupid climate denial is. If you can't then good luck to you bro.
Da Schneib
4 / 5 (4) Feb 17, 2019
I think the "Green new deal" is certainly a needed entry point to beat back the lunacy of climate change denial.
It's a starting point. And it puts pressure on the deniers; now the Republicans are pushing their own agenda to combat AGCC, which of course won't do much, but they gotta have something. I think this was a good strategic move particularly since it pushes the nutjobs more toward having to admit there's a problem. The nutjobs are being dragged, kicking and screaming, by the short and curly hairs, toward admitting someone has to do something. Next they'll start admitting everyone has to do something.
Da Schneib
2.3 / 5 (3) Feb 17, 2019
And don't forget to fear the cesspool rope gangs. Find a liar denier, hang them up by the heels over your cesspool as the tide comes in to try to keep lying and denying about sea level rise. Blub blub blub choke choke. Suck the sewage into your lungs. I'll be happy to identify them for you.
snoosebaum
2.3 / 5 (3) Feb 18, 2019
We will burn Alarmists for fuel to stay warm.
snoosebaum
1 / 5 (1) Feb 18, 2019
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
3 / 5 (2) Feb 19, 2019
And don't forget to fear the cesspool rope gangs. Find a liar denier, hang them up by the heels over your cesspool as the tide comes in to try to keep lying and denying about sea level rise. Blub blub blub choke choke. Suck the sewage into your lungs. I'll be happy to identify them for you.


Da Scheide proves itself time after time to be a very mentally ill creature who aspires to murdering humans (as spelt out above) only because of their opinions against what could be a hoax. He is obviously insane in spite of his knowledge of how to copy and paste science information from various websites/science journals, etc to impress physorg commenters and get plenty of attention.
howhot3
5 / 5 (1) Feb 19, 2019
We will burn Alarmists for fuel to stay warm.

Yeah... and how is that different from cannibalism? So nice that you believe in the Soylent Green model for humanity in the age of mankind's great decline under Trump. Yeah you dick,
howhot3
5 / 5 (1) Feb 19, 2019
@SmellyEggs is having a good time trying to explain how climate change is a hoax. Good luck with that. You're full of BS there @SausagenEggs old buddy. If you agree with the climate change deniers, then your dumber that you come off to be.

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