Post-whaling recovery of Southern Hemisphere

August 21, 2017, CSIRO
A humpback whale in the Southern Ocean. Credit: Diego Cotterle

By 2100 some Southern Hemisphere whale species will not have reached half their pre-whaling numbers, while other species are expected to recover by 2050.The findings are part of new CSIRO and UQ research, which looks at the interaction of historical whaling, food availability and future climate changes to predict whale numbers to 2100.

University of Queensland and CSIRO PhD student Viv Tulloch, affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, said this was the first time researchers had used this approach to predict future Southern Hemisphere whale numbers."We predict that Antarctic Blue, Southern Right and Fin will be at less than half their pre-exploitation numbers by 2100 because of slow growth rates and heavy historical whaling," Ms Tulloch said.

"Although humpbacks are currently at 33 per cent of their pre-whaling numbers, we predict they will make a full recovery by 2050."

Southern Right whales, which were reported to have declined to 300 before anti-whaling laws were established, raise one calf every two to three years, compared to humpback whales which generally raise a calf per year.

CSIRO senior scientist and co-author of the paper Dr Eva Plaganyi said the research was enabled through a complex ecosystem model nicknamed 'MICE', an acronym for Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments.

"Our MICE model uses whale numbers dating back from 1890 to now and then couples this with and ocean physics to understand the changes to ocean conditions that whales are likely to experience," Dr Plaganyi said.

"Projections of Southern Hemisphere whale numbers are crucial for management and conservation and this research helps answer some of the uncertainties regarding their recovery."

Explore further: Slow path to recovery for southern right whales

Related Stories

Slow path to recovery for southern right whales

March 15, 2016

The first population assessment since the end of the whaling era reveals that New Zealand southern right whales have some way to go before numbers return to pre-industrial levels. Reporting this week in Royal Society Open ...

Japan kicks off Pacific whaling campaign

June 14, 2017

Japan on Wednesday kicked off a whaling campaign in the northwestern Pacific, in a move sure to anger animal rights activists and others calling for an end to the hunts.

Recommended for you

Space-inspired speed breeding for crop improvement

November 16, 2018

Technology first used by NASA to grow plants extra-terrestrially is fast tracking improvements in a range of crops. Scientists at John Innes Centre and the University of Queensland have improved the technique, known as speed ...

0 comments

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.