Massive study provides first detailed look at how Greenland's ice is vanishing

December 15, 2014
The surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet. A new study uses NASA data to provide the first detailed reconstruction of how the ice sheet and its many glaciers are changing. The research was led by University at Buffalo geologist Beata Csatho. Credit: Beata Csatho

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest body of ice on Earth. It covers an area about five times the size of New York State and Kansas combined, and if it melts completely, oceans could rise by 20 feet. Coastal communities from Florida to Bangladesh would suffer extensive damage.

Now, a new study is revealing just how little we understand this northern behemoth.

Led by geophysicist Beata Csatho, PhD, an associate professor of geology at the University at Buffalo, the research provides what the authors think is the first comprehensive picture of how Greenland's ice is vanishing. It suggests that current modeling studies are too simplistic to accurately predict future , and that Greenland may lose ice more rapidly in the near future than previously thought.

"The great importance of our data is that for the first time, we have a comprehensive picture of how all of Greenland's glaciers have changed over the past decade," Csatho says.

"This information is crucial for developing and validating numerical models that predict how the ice sheet may change and contribute to global sea level over the next few hundred years," says Cornelis J. van der Veen, PhD, professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Kansas, who played a key role in interpreting glaciological changes.

The project was a massive undertaking, using satellite and aerial data from NASA's ICESat spacecraft and Operation IceBridge field campaign to reconstruct how the height of the Greenland Ice Sheet changed at nearly 100,000 locations from 1993 to 2012.

Ice loss takes place in a complex manner, with the ice sheet both melting and calving ice into the ocean. The study had two major findings:

  • First, the scientists were able to provide new estimates of annual ice loss at high spatial resolution (see below).
  • Second, the research revealed that current models fail to accurately capture how Greenland's glaciers are changing and contributing to rising oceans.

The second point is crucial to climate change modelers.

Today's simulations use the activity of four well-studied glaciers—Jakobshavn, Helheim, Kangerlussuaq and Petermann—to forecast how the entire ice sheet will dump ice into the oceans.

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This animation (from March 2014) portrays the changes occurring in the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet since 2003 in three drainage areas: the southeast, the northeast and the Jakobshavn regions. In each region, the time advances to show the accumulated change in elevation, 2003-2012. Credit: NASA SVS NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

But the new research shows that activity at these four locations may not be representative of what is happening with glaciers across the ice sheet. In fact, glaciers undergo patterns of thinning and thickening that current climate change simulations fail to address, Csatho says.

"There are 242 wider than 1.5 km on the Greenland Ice Sheet, and what we see is that their behavior is complex in space and time," Csatho says. "The local climate and geological conditions, the local hydrology—all of these factors have an effect. The current models do not address this complexity."

Icebergs at Jakobshavn, one of four glaciers that scientists typically use to model the activity of all Greenland glaciers. The new study finds that this method of modeling is too simplistic to accurately capture how Greenland's ice is truly changing. Credit: Beata Csatho

The team identified areas of rapid shrinkage in southeast Greenland that today's models don't acknowledge. This leads Csatho to believe that the ice sheet could lose ice faster in the future than today's simulations would suggest.

The results will be published on Dec. 15 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

How much ice is the Greenland Ice Sheet losing?

To analyze how the height of the ice sheet was changing, Csatho and UB research professor and photogrammetrist Anton Schenk, PhD, developed a computational technique called Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection to fuse together data from NASA satellite and aerial missions.

Scientists using NASA data released new insights into the hidden plumbing of melt water flowing through the Greenland Ice Sheet as well as the most detailed picture ever of how the ice sheet moves toward the sea. Credit: NASA/Michael Studinger

The analysis found that the Greenland Ice Sheet lost about 243 gigatons of ice annually—equivalent to about 277 cubic kilometers of ice per year—from 2003-09, the period for which the team had the most comprehensive data. This loss is estimated to have added about 0.68 millimeters of water to the oceans annually.

The figures are averages, and varied from year to year, and from region to region.

Why are today's climate models flawed, and how can we fix them?

Glaciers don't just gradually lose mass when the temperature rises. That's one reason it's difficult to predict their response to global warming.

Glaciers in Western Greenland. Credit: Beata Csatho

In the study, scientists found that some of Greenland's glaciers thickened even when the temperature rose. Others exhibited accelerated thinning. Some displayed both thinning and thickening, with sudden reversals.

As a step toward building better models of sea level rise, the research team divided Greenland's 242 glaciers into 7 major groups based on their behavior from 2003-09.

"Understanding the groupings will help us pick out examples of glaciers that are representative of the whole," Csatho says. "We can then use data from these representative glaciers in models to provide a more complete picture of what is happening."

In a new project, she and colleagues are investigating why different respond differently to warming. Factors could include the temperature of the surrounding ocean; the level of friction between a glacier and the bedrock below; the amount of water under a glacier; and the geometry of the fjord.

"The physics of these processes are not well understood," Csatho says.

The NASA missions: A colossal undertaking

The study combined data from various NASA missions, including:

  • NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), which measured the ice sheet's elevation multiple times a year at each of the nearly 100,000 locations from 2003-09.
  • NASA's, massive aerial survey that employs highly specialized research aircrafts to collect data at less frequent intervals than ICESat. These missions began measuring the Greenland Ice Sheet's elevation in 1993. Operation IceBridge was started in 2009 to bridge the time between ICESat-1 and ICESat-2, and will continue until at least 2017, when NASA's next generation ICESat-2 satellite is expected to come online.

Csatho says the new study shows why careful monitoring is critical: Given the complex nature of glacier behavior, good data is crucial to building better models.

Explore further: Significant contribution of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to sea-level rise

More information: Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics, PNAS, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1411680112

More on ICESat: icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov/ More on IceBridge: www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icebridge/index.html

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12 comments

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Shootist
2.3 / 5 (6) Dec 15, 2014
nuggets the size of plover's eggs . . .

♫I've packed in my job and made up my mind to spend my life looking for gold♫
dustywells
2.3 / 5 (6) Dec 15, 2014
Curious omission... Glaciers are always in a state of melting but maintain or grow through replenishing precipitation. Is there no snowfall over Greenland if not, why not? A warmer climate and warmer oceans should initiate more evaporation and more precipitation at higher Latitudes, shouldn't they?
Nik_2213
4.4 / 5 (13) Dec 15, 2014
Dusty, the big problem is not how much snow falls onto the glaciers, but the balance between more arriving due more storms due the warming Arctic and more ice melting and/or sliding off due the warming Arctic...

Then again, a lot of folk will not believe Greenland is, on balance, losing a lot of ice until there is catastrophic glacial sloughing, with mega-slides.
Captain Stumpy
4.2 / 5 (10) Dec 16, 2014
Curious omission... Glaciers are always in a state of melting but maintain or grow through replenishing precipitation. Is there no snowfall over Greenland if not, why not? A warmer climate and warmer oceans should initiate more evaporation and more precipitation at higher Latitudes, shouldn't they?
@dustywells
here is a study you should read... it directly discusses why we are seeing cold snaps with AGW and warming
http://marine.rut..._pub.pdf

this specifically addresses your claims above, and explains why warming doesn't always mean higher temps in weather or higher precipitation...

dan42day
5 / 5 (8) Dec 16, 2014
It covers an area about five times the size of New York State and Kansas combined


That is the most useless example I have ever seen. By the time you've looked at a map of New York State and Kansas, and tried to picture them together, then multiplied that image by five in your mind, you could have spent a significant amount of time studying a map of Greenland!
JIm Steele Landscapes and Cycles
1 / 5 (7) Dec 17, 2014
Vanishing ice most likely all natural https://www.youtu...b0r4G_Gc

Much of lost Greenland ice due to the flow of intruding Atlantic Water into the Irminger Current good graphics begins at 11:39 describing the relationship
gkam
3.7 / 5 (12) Dec 17, 2014
Yeah, it's natural: The environment heats up, and the ice melts.

http://thinkprogr...-glacer/
JIm Steele Landscapes and Cycles
1 / 5 (7) Dec 17, 2014
gkam if you read the papers that Joe Romm links too such as Straneo and Heimbach 2013, you would realize that paper supports everything I have stated in the video. There was a cycle of warm intruding waters in the 3os and again after the mid 90s. If the controlling factor is the sun and ocean oscillations, the waning of intruding Atlantic waters suggests the retreat of Greenland's glaciers is ebbing.
Vietvet
5 / 5 (8) Dec 17, 2014
gkam if you read the papers that Joe Romm links too such as Straneo and Heimbach 2013, you would realize that paper supports everything I have stated in the video. There was a cycle of warm intruding waters in the 3os and again after the mid 90s. If the controlling factor is the sun and ocean oscillations, the waning of intruding Atlantic waters suggests the retreat of Greenland's glaciers is ebbing.


What's your answer for this?
http://phys.org/n...tml#nRlv
gkam
3.7 / 5 (12) Dec 17, 2014
He didn't read my reference, either.
JIm Steele Landscapes and Cycles
1 / 5 (6) Dec 17, 2014
@Vietvet,

Below is a graph from MIT/Harvard oceanographers showing a decrease in Arctic ocean heat content this past decade. So even if the authors of the paper you link to argue changes in albedo has allowed more heat to be absorbed in the summer, overall, there is still a net loss of heat. In other words, the loss of insulating ice allows the Arctic Ocean to cool.

http://landscapes...8319.png

Read Wunsch, C., and P. Heimbach, (2014) Bidecadal Thermal Changes in the Abyssal Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., http://dx.doi.org...13-096.1

@gkam I suggest you did not read your link very thoroughly
Lex Talonis
1 / 5 (1) Dec 22, 2014
Oh fuck no!

The oceans have risen 0.68mm in the last 20 years.

We are doomed! We are doomed!

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