Tenfold increase in hurricane frequency this century, research predicts

Mar 18, 2013
Floodwaters surged into the Manhattan entrance to the Hugh L. Carey Tunnel during Hurricane Sandy. Credit: Jay Fine.

By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer.

The results are published in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS).

arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional and the in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.

New model for predicting cyclones

"Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model," explains Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known , for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.

Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute

The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many 'Katrinas' will there be per decade?

Since 1923, there has been a 'Katrina' magnitude storm surge every 20 years.

10 times as many 'Katrinas'

"We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following . With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all 'Katrinas' are due to global warming," explains Aslak Grinsted.

"If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a 'Katrina' magnitude storm surge every other year," says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.

Explore further: Improving forecasts for rain-on-snow flooding

More information: "Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures," by Aslak Grinsted, John C. Moore, and Svetlana Jevrejeva

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Sean_W
1.9 / 5 (18) Mar 18, 2013
Lift your skirt Lady Liberty! Oh nose!
antigoracle
2.1 / 5 (38) Mar 18, 2013
Are these the same statistical models that gave us the now DEBUNKED Mann's hockey stick?
Soylent_Grin
3.4 / 5 (28) Mar 18, 2013
So we can just claim things we don't like are debunked now?
I guess that saves all the pesky trouble of actually debunking.
antigoracle
2 / 5 (28) Mar 18, 2013
So we can just claim things we don't like are debunked now?
I guess that saves all the pesky trouble of actually debunking.


Here, educate yourself - http://www.uoguel...tick.pdf
GuruShabu
1.7 / 5 (29) Mar 18, 2013
antigoracle, Soyient Grin cannot be and does not want to be "EDUCATED".
He is already "converted".
He "believes" as many billions like him.
This is not science any more.
This is faith, religious, fanaticism, fear...
You wait to see how many "1s" I will get.
gregor1
1.9 / 5 (30) Mar 18, 2013
This is hilarious! Once again alarmist climateers resort to faked photographs to spread unwarranted hysteria. Reminds me of my favorite quote from one of the founding fathers of climate flim flam Prof. Schnieder.
"we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest."
My guess is this entire piece is spin. Bring back the scientific community's BS detector , PLEASE.
Tom_Andersen
1.7 / 5 (22) Mar 19, 2013
Ok the picture is a fake.

So lets look at the paper. Is it a joke? What was it like when the earth was 10C warmer than now - a constant Katrina? Do the dinosaurs look streamlined, because they would need to be sleek to walk around in the 160 km/hr winds that were a daily occurrence.

The latest IPCC SREX report - and the upcoming one - both say that there has been no measured increase in hurricanes over the past century, and that's with a 0.7 C rise in temp.
gregor1
1.9 / 5 (27) Mar 19, 2013
Physorg publishes press releases created by spin doctors who are yet to learn the lesson of the boy who cried wolf. A more honest article would mention the fact that after 20 or more years of creating such models nothing has been predicted with any degree of accuracy yet . The climate is just way more complex than we ever expected and we have way too little reliable data. Such articles are about obfuscation of these simple facts for the purpose of ensuring continued funding.
Spin is the enemy of science. Real science articles on the web have clickable links to substantiate claims.
GuruShabu
1.8 / 5 (21) Mar 19, 2013
This is hilarious! Once again alarmist climateers resort to faked photographs to spread unwarranted hysteria. Reminds me of my favorite quote from one of the founding fathers of climate flim flam Prof. Schnieder.
"we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest."
My guess is this entire piece is spin. Bring back the scientific community's BS detector , PLEASE.


You are right Tom.
I've seen the origin of that fake polar bear photo/ In fact, it was taken by an Australian tourist and has absolutely nothing bad on that.
gregor1
1.7 / 5 (27) Mar 19, 2013
Here's a perfect example
"With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all 'Katrinas' are due to global warming," explains Aslak Grinsted."

Really? There is no global trend.http://wattsupwit...ndfalls/
GuruShabu
1.6 / 5 (25) Mar 19, 2013
Continuing, Tom.
After a little bit of more research you can find that amongst 14 polar bear communities 9 are thriving and 5 are declining, which couldn'r be more "standard".
However, GREENS want you to feel guilty, like religion...guit, fear to control.
Unfortunately, we find all this on 21st century...
The very same Goebbels' nazi scam: no matter how wrong something can be. If you repeat it enough (global warming that now has switched to Global Change) people will believe on it.
And that's is the real truth. Greens have made billions of people to believe that humans are changing the weather! OMG!....:)
GuruShabu
1.7 / 5 (24) Mar 19, 2013
Here's a perfect example
"With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all 'Katrinas' are due to global warming," explains Aslak Grinsted."

Really? There is no global trend.http://wattsupwit...ndfalls/

Katrina wasn't even a "big one" In a small window time say 100,000 years.
Gime a break and go to wikipedia and you can have some insight on what you are trying to say
gregor1
1.8 / 5 (26) Mar 19, 2013
When it comes to climate information Wikipedia is not a reliable source. This is thanks to a member of the UK Greens using it to spread propaganda on a massive scale
http://wattsupwit...rmation/
NikFromNYC
2 / 5 (25) Mar 19, 2013
Proper headline: satellite era boost in storm surge detection allows amateur hour "scientists" to afford much bigger mortgages by helping politicians scare people.
NikFromNYC
1.9 / 5 (27) Mar 19, 2013
A record may soon be broken for the longest number not just of months but of years between major high category hurricane strikes on the US coast. Not since the Civil War has it been so long since another Katrina, and Katrina itself wasn't that big, it just had good aim.

Speaking of "broken records...."
Birger
4.1 / 5 (18) Mar 19, 2013
Um, there is a thing called "perspective". It means things near the camera look bigger than things furter from the camera. Dramatic images.
And you are absolutely right. Every single one of those hundred thousand temperature data sets must be faked, and every single one of the climate scientists on five continents have been bought off by the conspiracy (sarcasm).
Maggnus
3.9 / 5 (18) Mar 19, 2013
Look at the gaggle of loonies gathered on this thread! What happened, computer day at the asylum?
arq
3.8 / 5 (14) Mar 19, 2013
@birger, you hit the nail on the head.
antigoracle
1.5 / 5 (24) Mar 19, 2013
Look at the gaggle of loonies gathered on this thread! What happened, computer day at the asylum?
-- MagganusTurd

Another "brilliant" one from a Turd.
ScooterG
1.5 / 5 (23) Mar 19, 2013
Ok the picture is a fake.

So lets look at the paper. Is it a joke?


No, it's no joke. But when they lead off with a faked photograph, it tells me that honesty is not their first priority. Everything they say/write beyond that photograph cannot be trusted for accuracy and is not even worth the time it takes to read it.

Zero credibility in the church of AGW - it's what defines AGW.
Maggnus
3.9 / 5 (14) Mar 19, 2013
Look at the gaggle of loonies gathered on this thread! What happened, computer day at the asylum?
-- MagganusTurd

Another "brilliant" one from a Turd.


Aww c'mon, that was funny! Too busy adjusting your tinfoil hat to appreciate a chuckle?
Lurker2358
3.2 / 5 (18) Mar 19, 2013
and Katrina itself wasn't that big, it just had good aim.


You're an idiot.

Katrina was one of the highest integrated kinetic energy landfalls on record.

Katrina broke the previous official storm surge record by 4 feet, an unofficially may have broken it by 10 or more feet in some locations.

You're an idiot.

STFU moron, you know nothing.
deepsand
2.3 / 5 (18) Mar 20, 2013
Look at the gaggle of loonies gathered on this thread! What happened, computer day at the asylum?
-- MagganusTurd

Another "brilliant" one from a Turd.

Another steaming heap from AnalOrifice.
deepsand
2.4 / 5 (20) Mar 20, 2013
When it comes to climate information Wikipedia is not a reliable source. This is thanks to a member of the UK Greens using it to spread propaganda on a massive scale
http://wattsupwit...rmation/

And we're to take the word of a former TV weatherman who has no degree and lies about being credentialed?
gregor1
1.8 / 5 (19) Mar 20, 2013
This paper is effectively demolished here
http://rogerpielk...all.html
gregor1
1.4 / 5 (18) Mar 20, 2013

"And we're to take the word of a former TV weatherman who has no degree and lies about being credentialed?"

Deepsand. Science is science, Einstein was a patents clerk. Ad Hominem attacks are an admission of defeat I'm afraid.
Maggnus
3.8 / 5 (13) Mar 20, 2013
Deepsand. Science is science, Einstein was a patents clerk. Ad Hominem attacks are an admission of defeat I'm afraid.


Couple of things I want to note here. First, you characterize the blog you linked to as having "effectively demolished" this article. It does no such thing, as even the author of the blog acknowledges. I don't know why, gregor, you consistantly insist on overblowing and misrepresenting what you link to.

2nd, you use the characterization of "demolished" as if you are keeping some kind of score. Uba and others do the same thing, and it only speaks to your insistance that there is some conspiracy in play. There isn't gregor, and referring to it like that only lessons any impact you are hoping to attain.

Finally Einstien was a physicist working as a patent clerk, Watts is a weatherman pretending to be a climatologist. That's a big difference.
Maggnus
3.3 / 5 (14) Mar 20, 2013
After a little bit of more research you can find that amongst 14 polar bear communities 9 are thriving and 5 are declining, which couldn'r be more "standard".


Well, sort of. A "little bit of research" will suggest a sudden surge in reporting around April 2012 regarding the aerial survey of the Hudson's Bay bear population. Despite attempts to portray this as some refutation of global warming, it actually speaks far more to the lack of knowledge we have about polar bears.

Chack out this from Canadian Geographic : http://www.canadi...ears.asp

A little balance in reporting is nice.
deepsand
2.5 / 5 (19) Mar 20, 2013
"And we're to take the word of a former TV weatherman who has no degree and lies about being credentialed?"

Deepsand. Science is science, Einstein was a patents clerk. Ad Hominem attacks are an admission of defeat I'm afraid.

Avoids the fact that Watts has no academic background in either any of the Sciences or Meteorology, and that his claims to the contrary are lies. Pointing out this crucial fact is not argumentum ad hominem.

And, Einstein was not just a patents clerk; see http://en.wikiped...c_career .
Sean_W
1.5 / 5 (12) Mar 23, 2013
Lift your skirt Lady Liberty! Oh nose!


Awww! They took down the original picture of the Statue of Liberty being menaced by computer generated waves. I liked that one.
Steven_Anderson
1.3 / 5 (11) Mar 25, 2013
This might actually be something good in disguise. As the temperature increases, we will get more and more storms. It's going to be rather hard on the denialists' case if the effects are very apparent in the news every day. On the other hand if there is nothing to global warming then that will become more apparent too. A blessing in disguise! I for one want to institute a plan for air carbon capture using the money generated from the one year investment of recycling all plastics into fuel oil. The investment would be pay in 1 year and we would get the billions necessary to pay for air carbon sequester in 10 years time! Win Win situation for all parties no matter how dumb! http://rawcell.co...-income/ . Worldwide we waste 6 Trillion over a 10 year period by dumping our plastics in dumps and in the oceans.

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