World Bank fears devastating 4.0 degree warming

Nov 19, 2012 by Shaun Tandon
The smoke stacks at American Electric Power's Mountaineer coal power plant in New Haven, West Virginia. The World Bank has warned that global temperatures could rise by four degrees this century without immediate action, with potentially devastating consequences for coastal cities and the poor.

The World Bank warned that global temperatures could rise by four degrees this century without immediate action, with potentially devastating consequences for coastal cities and the poor.

Issuing a call for action, the World Bank tied the future wealth of the planet—and especially developing regions—to immediate efforts to cut from sources such as .

"The time is very, very short. The world has to tackle the problem of more aggressively," World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said on a conference call as he launched a report conducted for the global lender.

"We will never end poverty if we don't tackle climate change. It is one of the single biggest challenges to social justice today."

The study said the planet could warm 4.0 degrees Celsius (7.2 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels as early as the 2060s if governments' promises to fight climate change are not met.

Even if nations fulfill current , the study gave a 20 percent likelihood of a four-degree rise by 2100 and said that a three-degree rise appeared likely. UN-led have vowed to limit the rise of temperatures to no more than two degrees.

"A four-degree warmer world can and must be avoided. We need to hold warming below two degrees," Kim said. "Lack of ambitious action on climate change threatens to put prosperity out of reach of millions and roll back decades of development."

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that the study showed the need to hold nations to their commitment, made last year in Durban, South Africa, to put in place a legally binding new by 2015.

Graphic showing extreme weather events around the world in 2011 linked to global warming. T

The more than 190 nations in the start their latest annual talks on November 26 in Qatar.

have already risen about 0.8 degrees Celsius. The planet has charted a slew of record-breaking temperatures over the past decade and experienced frequent disasters some experts blame on climate change, most recently superstorm Sandy, which ravaged Haiti and the US East Coast.

The report said that, if temperatures rise by four degrees, regions will feel different effects—recent heatwaves in Russia could become an annual norm and July in the Mediterranean could be nine degrees higher than the area's warmest level now.

Under that scenario, the acidity of the oceans could rise at a rate unprecedented in world history, threatening coral reefs that protect shorelines and provide a habitat for fish species.

Rising sea levels could inundate coastal areas with the most vulnerable cities found in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Venezuela and Vietnam, the study said.

"Many small islands may not be able to sustain the communities at all. There would be irreversible loss of biodiversity," Kim said.

Bangladeshi farmers harvest rice in a field on the outskirts of Dhaka in May 2012. According to a study issued by the World Bank, rising sea levels could inundate coastal areas with the most vulnerable cities found in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Venezuela and Vietnam.

The study found that the most alarming impact may be on food production, with the world already expected to struggle to meet demand for a growing and increasingly wealthy population that is eating more meat.

Low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam and parts of Africa's coast could see major blows to food production, with drought severely hindering agriculture elsewhere, the study said.

Flooding can also contaminate drinking water, increasing illnesses such as diarrhea.

The dire warnings were designed to encourage bolder action, but the report did not focus on potential steps.

Identifying one area, Kim called for less reliance on coal, which is the dirtiest major form of energy but is politically sensitive in the United States and China due to industry jobs.

Kim said that the World Bank was determined to support renewable energy in its lending, saying: "We do everything we can not to invest in coal—everything we possibly can."

The fight against climate change has faced political obstacles in a number of nations including the United States, where many conservative lawmakers have called action too costly and cast doubt on the science.

Kim, a physician and former president of Dartmouth College who was tapped for the World Bank by US President Barack Obama, said that 97 percent of scientists agreed that human activity was causing climate change.

"As someone who has lived in the world of science for a long time, 97 percent is unheard-of consensus," he said.

The report was carried out by German-based Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The said it did not consider the study a substitute for next UN-backed scientific assessment on climate change expected in 2014.

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More information: phys.org/wire-news/114777826/4… f-a-future-with.html

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User comments : 26

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Birger
3 / 5 (10) Nov 19, 2012
And the internet trolls will arrive in 3...2...1...
RazorsEdge
2.1 / 5 (19) Nov 19, 2012
..0. The smoke in the picture is condensation. The 97 percent of scientists is really 75 out of 77 who responded to a survey. You can guess the beliefs of those who didn't respond. The leader of the World Bank was appointed by Obama - his only qualification is political.
PPihkala
2.5 / 5 (16) Nov 19, 2012
For simplicitys sake let's forget human induced warming for a while. If one wants to have a reason to stop CO2 pollution, the acidification of oceans is reason enough by itself. We all know that big amount of atmospheric CO2 is by human pollution. And like ocean acidification, it has many bad influences. Therefore such a pollution should be stopped and reversed. The longer it is done, the harder and more expensive it will be in the future.
Omnishambles
1.7 / 5 (22) Nov 19, 2012
Remember as a kid the boogeyman would get you if you didn't do what you were told? That's what Climate Change is to the UN.
gregor1
1.2 / 5 (20) Nov 19, 2012
Interesting the World Bank is willing to go out on a limb like this when anyone with an internet connection can see that most of their catastrophic claims are totally false. Strange too they didn't mention in the press release who authored their report though perhaps they were too embarrassed. I understand it was the Potsdam Institute who are well known to be off with the Pixies.
Howhot
3.8 / 5 (11) Nov 19, 2012
I was hoping to see all of the AGW trolls show up, but I guessed wrong. Anyway, here is my prediction. I think it will be worst, perhaps 5-6 Degree C with an ultimate change in the 10-15C range. Pretty much a planet killer. That is based on the amount of money invested in oil future reserves that need to be extracted compared to man-kinds capabilities to remove CO2 from the pipeline by conservation and green energy.

Kiss your kids good night, because their kids won't have one.

gregor1
1.6 / 5 (20) Nov 19, 2012
You should go for a job at the UN. They'd love you.
david_king
1.3 / 5 (16) Nov 20, 2012
I keep saying this, the sooner humans die out completely the better.
rubberman
2.3 / 5 (15) Nov 20, 2012
Interesting the World Bank is willing to go out on a limb like this when anyone with an internet connection can see that most of their catastrophic claims are totally false.


The article made predictions, not claims. This is the only claim made in the article:

"The planet has charted a slew of record-breaking temperatures over the past decade and experienced frequent disasters some experts blame on climate change, most recently superstorm Sandy, which ravaged Haiti and the US East Coast."

Pretty accurate....and I checked on the internet.
PeterD
1.7 / 5 (20) Nov 20, 2012
Horse S**t
gregor1
1.6 / 5 (20) Nov 20, 2012
Extreme weather is at an all time low especially hurricanes on the US east coast. Google Howhot. I'm not going to spoon feed you. The evidence in the real world says this article is pure propaganda
VendicarD
3.6 / 5 (8) Nov 20, 2012
PeterD still thinks Ronmey wasn't a Congenital, and perpetual liar.

The majority of U.S. voters know different.

"Horse S**t" - PeterD
VendicarD
4.5 / 5 (8) Nov 20, 2012
Get used to 'extreme' weather, it's the new normal

http://www.guardi...e-change

"Extreme weather is at an all time low" - GregorTard

Extreme weather: Get ready to see more of it, scientists say

http://www.cnn.co...dex.html

Global Warming Spurs Extreme Weather, Most in US Believe

http://www.livesc...her.html

US Extreme Weather Consistent With Climate Change

http://www.voanew...563.html

US Infrastructure in Disarray Due to Extreme Weather, Climate Change

https://www.commo.../07/26-4
Howhot
4.1 / 5 (9) Nov 20, 2012
Well gregor, the proof is in the pudding. What is happening in the environment, everyone can see. Satellites tell us, computer models tell us, physics tells us, science tells us that the world is getting hotter. It's global warming my friend.
The evidence in the real world says this article is pure propaganda


As PeterD says:
Horse S**t


The articles says a 3-4C change by 2100 (just a small, 88 years from now). Based on what I've read and calculated, I think that is very understated. We need to panic people like you much more. I've seen projections as high as 10C global average by 2100. It's freaking earth killer.

That's not propaganda, that is just what I see. That is based on current oil/gas and coal futures and estimated reserves, and the CO2/barrel of oil value. If eventually deniers like you *GET-IT* and recognize the earth-kill potential track we are marching on, we might save ourselves and life as we know it on planet earth.

gregor1
1.5 / 5 (17) Nov 21, 2012
Here's what the data shows.
http://wattsupwit...-update/
gregor1
1.3 / 5 (16) Nov 21, 2012
hurricane frequency
http://notrickszo...rd-lows/
gregor1
1.6 / 5 (19) Nov 21, 2012
Quoting the mainstream media isn't science
"So why do some believe that extreme weather events are occurring more often than ever and that more people are dying and suffering? This is because the media stories have increased dramatically over the years, as they report on every Tiny Tim storm out there as if it were a Cat 5. It's overhyped."
http://notrickszo...rd-lows/
Lurker2358
2.5 / 5 (13) Nov 24, 2012
Extreme weather is at an all time low especially hurricanes on the US east coast. Google Howhot. I'm not going to spoon feed you. The evidence in the real world says this article is pure propaganda


Wrong idjit.

Based on the NWS, extreme weather in the U.S. is at an all time high.

Now perhaps if you look only at one particular brand of extreme weather, you might find that tornados were very low this year...but we had two of the biggest, most destructive "category 1" hurricanes ever, with enormous storm surge damage and inland flooding. We had droughts which destroyed huge sections of farmland and livestock.

Oh yes, this year, 2012, has at least 2 and possible 3 of the top 10 most costly U.S. disasters on record.

We haven't mentioned drought induced wildfires which burned down entire residential districts.

So we had fewer tornados this year, but the total amount of "extreme weather" was actually higher this year than it's ever been, and the damage higher too, except 2005.
Lurker2358
2.3 / 5 (16) Nov 24, 2012
hurricane frequency
http://notrickszo...rd-lows/


Mmmmhmmm.

2010 was a slow year for the U.S., but you're a liar and so was your source.

2010 ended up being above average for:

total named storms.
total hurricanes
total majors

in fact the year broke or approached several records, including:

Most active september.
Earliest storm so low in pressure (Alex)
ACE 166, Annual mean is 93. This is the HIGHEST since 2005.

Next what happened?

Oh yeah, last year Lee and Irene both caused catastrophic flooding, including the WORST ON RECORD for the affected areas.

Then this year, Isaac hit with cat1 wind speed, but cat4 storm surge, and so did Sandy.

Sandy is now the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history, AND one of the deadliest, above Wilma, Rita, and Andrew combined, I think, for U.S. death toll.

So basically even though VD over does it sometimes, he's right.

You're just a damned liar.
ScooterG
1 / 5 (13) Nov 24, 2012
"We will never end poverty if we don't tackle climate change. "

Oh man...now I REALLY feel guilty!
gregor1
1 / 5 (12) Nov 24, 2012
gregor1
1 / 5 (12) Nov 24, 2012
Perhaps this will help
http://hockeyscht...ave.html you're may be right though I just realized this graph cuts out in 2005 post me some links
http://notrickszo...8501.gif
gregor1
1 / 5 (11) Nov 24, 2012
here's an up to date graph of the global trendhttp://wattsupwit...0-years/
knowledgeispower19
3 / 5 (4) Nov 26, 2012
As a 17 year old that is among the many in my generation that is going to be affected by such catastrophic global warming, i cannot help but feel utterly disgusted by all of the AGW denialists on this site. And yet people wonder why i have given up and have no hope for the future...
gregor1
1 / 5 (12) Nov 26, 2012
Personally I don't deny AGW. My position is that there has been lots of really cool research done in the last 20 years showing it's not likely to be catastrophic. To me that's good news. Go to google and take a look. You may be surprised
gregor1
1 / 5 (12) Nov 26, 2012
knowledgeispower19 I do know how you must feel though. I was your age during the great imminent ice age scare of the 70's. In one of my first lectures a uni where I was studying science we were told that the human race would be extinct by the year 2000 if we didn't cut emissions within 5 years. Haha! Scared the cr@p outa me...