Study finds Southern Hemisphere becoming drier

October 3, 2012

A decline in April-May rainfall over south-east Australia is associated with a southward expansion of the subtropical dry-zone according to research published today in Scientific Reports, a primary research journal from the publishers of Nature.

CSIRO scientists Wenju Cai, Tim Cowan and Marcus Thatcher explored why autumn has been in decline across south-eastern Australia since the 1970s, a period that included the devastating Millennium from 1997-2009.

Previous research into what has been driving the decline in autumn rainfall across regions like has pointed the finger at a southward shift in the storm tracks and during the late 20th century. However, the extent to which these regional rainfall reductions are attributable to the poleward expansion of the subtropical dry-zone has not been clarified before now.

Mr Cowan said in the are known to be influenced by the Hadley cell, the large-scale that transports heat from the tropics to the sub-tropics.

"There has been a southward expansion of the edge of the Hadley cell – also called subtropical dry-zone – over the past 30 years, with the strongest expansion occurring in mid-late autumn, or April to May, ranging from 200 to 400 kilometres," Mr Cowan said. The CSIRO researchers found that the autumn southward expansion of the subtropical dry-zone is greatest over south-eastern Australia, and to a lesser extent, over the to the south of Africa.

"The Hadley cell is comprised of a number of individual branches, so the impact of a southward shift of the subtropical dry-zone on rainfall is not the same across the different semi-arid regions of the ," says CSIRO's Dr Wenju Cai.

The researchers tested the hypothesis that the dry-zone expansion would give rise to a southward shift in the average rainfall during April and May, and questioned how rainfall across semi-arid regions, including southern-coastal Chile and southern Africa, would be affected.

"During April and May, when the dry-zone expansion is strong, rainfall over south-eastern Africa, south-eastern Australia and southern-coastal Chile is higher than over regions immediately to their north," Dr Cai said.

Using high-quality observations and an atmospheric model the CSIRO team found that for south-eastern Australia, up to 85% of recent rainfall reduction can be accounted for by replacing south-eastern Australia rainfall with rainfall 400km to the north. Such a southward shift of rainfall can explain only a small portion of the southern Africa rainfall trend, but none of the autumn drying observed over southern Chile.

"For south-east Australia, autumn is an important wetting season," Dr Cai explained. "Good autumn rainfall wets the soil and effectively allows for vital runoff from follow-on winter and spring rain to flow into catchments."

According to the study an important issue remains as to why the poleward expansion is largest in autumn, and there is still uncertainty about the role of external forcings – such as greenhouse gases – as climate models underestimate the southward expansion of the Hadley cell edge.

This research was conducted through CSIRO's Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, and was funded by the Goyder Institute for Water Research and the Australian Climate Change Science Programme. Wenju Cai, Tim Cowan and Marcus Thatcher are from CSIRO's Marine and Atmospheric Research division.

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1.8 / 5 (5) Oct 04, 2012
What's that? Your Model doesn't fit reality? Oh reallly now....
not rated yet Oct 13, 2012
The tree,s are cut all the way around earth axis Brazil to other side .And the earth is dehydration . It is going into space .And the ocean is causing co2 to from ,when cold water mixes with lava on ocean floor .Cure replant all the trees ,bring ice from Ortbelt park in l8 zone parcute said in ocean .Cost a lot but men and women can stop waring . Oh cut ice to house . have a good day !
1 / 5 (2) Oct 13, 2012
"Study finds Southern Hemisphere becoming drier"

...and colder:


And "drier?" Hardly. Just before the described Aril-May period, SE Australia experienced heavy flooding:


...and again, just after:


3 / 5 (2) Oct 13, 2012
Odd how all we have to do is alter UbVontard's starting date by 0.7 years and his cooling plot becomes a strongly warming one.


He has publicly stated that he will continue to lie about the issue until he is dead.
1 / 5 (1) Oct 14, 2012
Odd how all we have to do is alter Uba's starting date by 0.7 years and his cooling plot becomes a strongly warming one.


He has publicly stated that he will continue to lie about the issue until he is dead.
Odd how Vendibot falsely attributes substituted data to me, and accuses me of lying.

And just for fun, here's my dataset with the starting date similarly altered by .7 years:


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