UN: World population expected to rise to 9.7 billion in 2050

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The world's population is getting older and growing at a slower pace but is still expected to increase from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050, the United Nations said Monday.

The U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs' Population Division said in a new report that could reach its peak of nearly 11 billion around the end of the century.

But Population Division Director John Wilmoth cautioned that because 2100 is many decades away this outcome "is not certain, and in the end the peak could come earlier or later, at a lower or higher level of total ."

The new population projections indicate that nine countries will be responsible for more than half the projected population growth between now and 2050. In descending order of the expected increase, they are: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States.

In sub-Saharan Africa, population is projected to nearly double by 2050, the report said.

Undersecretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Lu Zhenmin said in a statement: "Many of the fastest growing populations are in the , where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty," promote gender equality and improve health care and education.

The report confirmed that the world's population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels.

The global fertility rate fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 births in 2019 and is projected to decline further to 2.2 births by 2050.

A fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman is need to ensure population replacement and avoid declines, according to the report.

In 2019, the fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa was the highest at 4.6 births per woman, with Pacific islands, northern Africa, and western, central and southern Asia above the replacement level, the report said.

But since 2010, it said 27 countries or areas have lost one percent or more of their population.

"Between 2019 and 2050 populations are projected to decrease by one percent or more in 55 countries or areas, of which 26 may see a reduction of at least 10 percent," the U.N. said. "In China, for example, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 percent, between 2019 and 2050."

Wilmoth, the head of the Population Division, told a news conference launching the report that the population growth rate is slowing down as the fertility level gradually decreases. That decrease usually follows a reduction in the mortality level that initially instigated growth, he said.

Wilmoth stressed that multiple factors lead to lower fertility including increasing education and employment, especially for women, and more jobs in urban than , which motivate people away from costly large families to smaller families.

But to achieve this, he said, people also need access to modern methods of contraception.

According to the "World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights" report, migration is also a major component of or loss in some countries.

Between 2010 and 2020, it said 14 countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants while 10 countries will experience a similar loss.

For example, some of the largest outflows of people—including from Bangladesh, Mepal and the Philippines—are driven by the demand for , the said. But some migrants are driven from their home countries by violence, insecurity and conflict, including from Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela.

The U.N. said countries experiencing a net inflow of migrants over the decade include Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine.


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UN says world population will reach 9.8 billion in 2050

More information: World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights at population.un.org/wpp/

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Jun 17, 2019
neg-entropic energy production . a unit is purchased the size of a fridge for example . using Viktor schaughberger and other scientist work on energy production (not consumption ie fission , oil e.m. field theory at present ) these can keep a home powered , and surplus electricity sold onto the grid . there was never any "over population" or "shortage of resources" it was basically the story of entropy , manifest at possibly it's peak during the 20 th to 21 st centuries. all of this data flying around the www is an example . it's not logic code but the overwhelming spread of chaos .

Jun 17, 2019
Entropic Creation: Religious Contexts of Thermodynamics and Cosmology
1st Edition
Helge S. Kragh

Paperback
£41.99

Jun 18, 2019
"expected increase, they are: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States."

-IOW where theocracies and religion-dominated cultures dictate the growth rate.

"In sub-Saharan Africa, population is projected to nearly double by 2050"

-Again, religionists with the mandate to outgrow and overwhelm the competition who are trying to do the same thing to them.

"Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty"

-As usual this is backwards... poverty is CAUSED by overgrowth. And religion is the root cause. Until these religions are eradicated the problem will only get worse.

Secular societies have achieved zero growth. They are being overwhelmed by refugees from cultures which have thrived on reproductive aggression. These cultures seek out prosperous, tolerant countries like the US to colonize and destroy from within.

Jun 18, 2019
Gods prime directive to the chosen

"9 Then God blessed Noah and his sons, saying to them, "Be fruitful and increase in number and fill the earth..."

-with more of yourselves and fewer of everybody else.

Every holy book includes this mandate. Religions that were less prolific have been extincted by those who are more. A particularly insidious form of group selection.

With all due respect, the forecasts are horribly off. The solid black line shows the historical reality (minus unregistered births). Does everyone notice how straight that line is? Somebody claiming that this trend would change, while religionists and politicians refuse impactful action against the overpopulation should be called fool not statistician. And by the way, has anybody asked the voodoo forecasters how large their margin of error is for the current figures? I tell you the answer they won't provide: beyond 15%. Them meanwhile naively picking the year 2013 as representing the peak and trend reversal of annual growth in absolute numbers is thus just another fallacy. In reality 2016, 2017 and 2018 had each been years with increased headcount addition numbers.

Jun 22, 2019
I read somewhere they expect the population to level off. I might try to find a reference if anyone's interested enough to ask.

Jun 22, 2019
Ha! Wasn't very hard, the article is right on here: https://phys.org/...ons.html


Jun 22, 2019
I kind of agree with this guy

"In a tweet on Friday, Elon Musk doubled down on his theory that the global population will be in decline by 2050.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO first backed the theory in 2017 in response to a New Scientist article about a "population bomb.""

-Collapse makes it sound like a calamity whereas in reality it's just the opposite. We will be cleaning up the mess we've made these last 2 centuries, for centuries to come.

Jun 24, 2019
With all due respect, the forecasts are horribly off. The solid black line shows the historical reality (minus unregistered births). Does everyone notice how straight that line is?


Not a credible criticism, since that is the result of simple (so more likely) statistical models. Notably you did not provide an alternative, so the 'voodoo' practitioner here is you.

Jun 26, 2019
So no problem we(THE USA) can take them all as immigrants.

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