Could climate change make Siberia habitable for humans?

Siberia
Credit: CC0 Public Domain

Large parts of Asian Russia could become habitable by the late 21st century due to climate change, new research has found.

A study team from the Krasnoyarsk Federal Research Center, Russia, and the National Institute of Aerospace, USA, used current and predicted to examine the climate comfort of Asian Russia and work out the potential for throughout the 21st century.

They published their results today in Environmental Research Letters.

At 13 million square kilometres Asian Russia—east of the Urals towards the Pacific—accounts for 77 per cent of Russia's . Its population, however, accounts for just 27 per cent of the country's people and is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and fertile soil.

"Previous human migrations have been associated with . As civilisations developed technology that enabled them to adapt, humans became less reliant on the environment, particularly in terms of climate," said the study's lead author Dr. Elena Parfenova, from the Krasnoyarsk Federal Research Center.

"We wanted to learn if future changes in climate may lead to the less-hospitable parts of Asian Russia becoming more habitable for humans."

For their analysis, the team used a combination of 20 general circulation models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and two CO2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios—RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes.

They applied the collective means of January and July temperatures and annual precipitation of the two scenarios to Asian Russia to find their respective effects on three climate indices that are important for human livelihood and well-being: Ecological Landscape Potential (ELP), winter severity, and permafrost coverage.

Dr. Parfenova said: "We found increases in temperature of 3.4°C (RCP 2.6) to 9.1°C (RCP 8.5) in mid-winter; increases of 1.9°C (RCP 2.6) to 5.7°C (RCP 8.5) in mid-summer; and increases in precipitation of 60 mm (RCP 2.6) to 140 mm (RCP 8.5).

"Our simulations showed that under RCP8.5, by the 2080s Asian Russia would have a milder climate, with less permafrost coverage, decreasing from the contemporary 65 per cent to 40 per cent of the area by the 2080s."

The researchers also found that even under the RCP 2.6 scenario, the ELP for human sustainability would improve in more than 15 per cent of the area, which could allow for a five-fold increase in the in the capacity of the territory to sustain and become attractive to human populations.

Dr. Parfenova concluded: "Asian Russia is currently extremely cold. In a future warmer , in terms of crop distribution and production capability is likely to become more favourable for people to support settlements.

"However, suitable land development depends on the authorities' social, political and economic policies. Lands with developed infrastructure and high agricultural potential would obviously be populated first.

"Vast tracts of Siberia and the Far East have poorly developed infrastructure. The speed these developments happen depends on investments in infrastructure and agriculture, which in turn depends on the decisions that should be made soon."


Explore further

Colombia could lose 60% of land suitable for irrigated rice due to climate change

More information: 'Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century' Environmental Research Letters (2019). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab10a8
Journal information: Environmental Research Letters

Citation: Could climate change make Siberia habitable for humans? (2019, June 6) retrieved 21 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2019-06-climate-siberia-habitable-humans.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
806 shares

Feedback to editors

User comments

Jun 06, 2019
Finally someone being honest about the fact that "climate change" (whatever that means) can have many benefits to civilization. It is not always a doomsday scenario as it typified 99% of the time.

Jun 06, 2019
Still waiting for dairy farms to return to Greenland and commercial wine production to Northern Europe.

Jun 06, 2019
Well, it's gonna have benefits to Russian civilization, anyway. The Canadians aren't going to get the dirt that was scoured off in the last ice age back. Once the US is too hot and dry to grow food, there's gonna be hell to pay for us. Lesson: learn to speak Russian and like oligarchs and corruption.

Jun 06, 2019
Still waiting for dairy farms to return to Greenland and commercial wine production to Northern Europe.

If you count the UK as part of Northern Europe, there have been commercial vineyards there for many years.

Jun 06, 2019
Still waiting for dairy farms to return to Greenland and commercial wine production to Northern Europe.

If you count the UK as part of Northern Europe, there have been commercial vineyards there for many years.
Gee ! There is even vineyards in Finland. But don't tell that to Shootist, it might upset him.

Jun 07, 2019
Well, it's gonna have benefits to Russian civilization, anyway. The Canadians aren't going to get the dirt that was scoured off in the last ice age back. Once the US is too hot and dry to grow food, there's gonna be hell to pay for us. Lesson: learn to speak Russian and like oligarchs and corruption.


call me when we hit Holocene Climate Optimum. +6C compared to today and within the past 10,000 years as well. Hint: North America won't be too hot to grow food. There's a reason it's called a Climate Optimum.

Jun 07, 2019
Finally someone being honest about the fact that "climate change" (whatever that means) can have many benefits to civilization.
Bart_A

Nobody denies that there could be some benefits as well as harm via global warming so you are using straw man here.
However, science clearly tells us that in this case the harm will be overall massively greater than any benefits and one would have to be complete moron to choose to be oblivious to that fact.
The problem with ignoring and/or dismissing inconvenient or hard reality, like you are doing, is that eventually reality will bite us back.

Jun 07, 2019
Meanwhile, on Earth, the HTM was only about 2C more than today. https://en.wikipe..._effects

Jun 07, 2019
Once the US is too hot and dry to grow food, there's gonna be hell to pay for us.


It was 15 degrees Celcius warmer though most Earth's history from the Cretaeous to Jurassic eras. And there was plenty of life at the equator then.

You're basically a fool alarmist.

Jun 07, 2019
Your mixing up your story @old_b_code... that was only 600yrs ago. Right?

Jun 07, 2019
Your mixing up your story @old_b_code... that was only 600yrs ago. Right?


Lol, see how ignorant you are?

100's of millions of years with temperatures 15 C above today and plenty of life.

Jun 07, 2019
Your mixing up your story @old_b_code... that was only 600yrs ago. Right?

Lol, see how ignorant you are?

100's of millions of years with temperatures 15 C above today and plenty of life.


So you make a joke about a fundemental fact about Earth's temeperature history. Because you have no answer to counter the basic fact that Earth was warmer than today for most it's history with plenty of life.

You're truly an ignoramus, not stupid, just ignorant.

Jun 07, 2019
But how do you know that AGW doesn't spiral out of control and cause a mass extinction of animals we cherish and rely on, and perhaps mankind? We cannot even accurately predict what the weather will be like in 3 weeks. Any assumptions made could result in false conclusions. And the world as we know it is at stake. Perhaps being conservative and cautious is justified in this situation?

Jun 07, 2019
But how do you know that AGW doesn't spiral out of control and cause a mass extinction of animals we cherish and rely on


So let's spend TRILLIONS on things just in case? LOL.

Foolish political BS. Climate alarmists can't stand a simple debate of the facts.

Jun 07, 2019

So let's spend TRILLIONS on things just in case? LOL.


I think trillions is a reasonable price tag for saving the planet which gave you life, which we have no substitute for. But apparently you do not value this as much. Perhaps you grew up in an endless cornfield and you cannot imagine anything worth saving in this world. I recommend that you take some time off for soul searching and go abroad to witness the natural wonders of the earth for yourself.

Jun 07, 2019
Trillions a reasonable price to pay to solve problems you don't even understand and may not make a difference anyway?

Fool.

Jun 07, 2019
Lots more land up north than down south. But it would be very swampy and muddy and smelly. And the skeeters!

But just think of all that good land under the Greenland ice sheet, waiting for development...

Jun 07, 2019
I think trillions is a reasonable price tag for saving the planet which gave you life
The only people who could spend trillions in 12 years are militant despots like el presidente-for-life, commander ocasius cortez-alexander the great. And chairman mao, who will forever be praised for his 5 year plans which killed millions.

But that was of course their purpose. AOC is just abominably stupid. But her plans would have exactly the same outcome.

Jun 07, 2019
Old code
Foolish political BS. Climate alarmists can't stand a simple debate of the facts
Pot meet kettle. You are the one who can't stand a simple debate - and just run around the internet spouting the same garbage. For 800,000 years - the earth has been in a state of equilibrium - oscillating back and forth between glacials and interglacials. The primary driver of those oscillations is Milankovich cycles - then assisted by various feed back loops. We have just pushed C02 levels higher they have been any time in that 800,000 year period. This is what scientists are concerned about. What if we set off run away warming. So hey - if we can figure out how to stop burning fossil fuels, transition to better/cheaper renewable energy - employ the precautionary principle - and create a better world for all - that would be a win win win. It just needs a little creativity - vs stubborn/arrogant/ignorant/stupid intransigence.

Jun 07, 2019
''Siberia habitable for humans ''

no, just Russians but we know they are not human, so nobody lives there now

Jun 07, 2019
Milankovich cycles


They are 100,000 years long you dope. Since 500,000,000 BC, the average temperature on Earth for 100 million years 25 C, 10 C for 20 million, on and off for half a billion years.

You pretend you're smart, but you're just an alarmist fool.

Jun 07, 2019
stubborn/arrogant/ignorant/stupid intransigence.


Fool. I have over 107 products in the field.

Jun 07, 2019
They are 100,000 years long you dope
See how stupid you are. Who cares how many products you have in some field somewhere? Actually there are 3 cycles. One is 100,000 years, the second is 40,000 years, and the third is 23,000 years. Eccentricity, tilt, and precession. http://www.indian...tch.htm\

Today - C02 levels are higher than they have been for that entire 800,000 years. Caused by the loading of the atmosphere with green house gasses. This is causing the very smart scientists who have developed all of this data - to be concerned. They know all about the 4.6 billion years of climate history. They know lots more than you do. See how stupid you are?

Jun 07, 2019
See how stupid you are. Who cares how many products you have in some field somewhere? Actually there are 3 cycles. One is 100,000 years, the second is 40,000 years, and the third is 23,000 years.


Wow, you are a true fool. It was15 degrees C warmer for 100 million years at a time.
100 million dumbazz, not 100 thousand.

Ignorant unaccompished fool.

Jun 07, 2019
Today - C02 levels are higher than they have been for that entire 800,000 years.


So what? Plants aren't starving at 450 ppm CO2 (current quantity). They starve at under 250 ppm.
You are simply a follower of left wing BS politics, you guys are so obvious now, no science, no logic.

Jun 07, 2019
No response. Okay, 11:40pm EDT, a reasonable bed time on the east coast. But you're most likely an arrogant buffoon from the west coast who has no logical answer to your repeated foolishness.

Jun 07, 2019
The longer this goes on the clearer it becomes that climate change has become a strategic weapon that Putin intends to use to open up Siberia at the expense of the populations of countries further South than Russia. The Chinese either think they can take some of it or that it won't affect them because they seem to be helping.

The Great Game redux. Only now it's the US and Russia, not Great Britain and Russia.

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

Jun 07, 2019
climate change has become a strategic weapon that Putin intends to use to open up Siberia at the expense of the populations of countries further South than Russia.


Wow, dude. I actually had respect for your opinion (to a certain degree), until now.
You are sadly mentally ill. Mildly, but ill for sure. Putin, Siberia, I get it. [eye roll].

Jun 08, 2019
old code
It was15 degrees C warmer for 100 million years at a time. 100 million dumbazz, not 100 thousand.
And how do we know that? Did you study it? NO. So again I ask - so what? The point today - is that for the last 800,000 years - the system has clearly shown an interesting state of balance. We are clearly disturbing that balance. That balance has allowed the conditions for life to flourish. We are now witnessing real time - a great die off of species - https://www.cbsne...ulation/ at an anomalous rate.

Your postion - "I don't care that we may currently be creating the conditions for a mass extinction of life on the planet - that may put the survival of the human race at risk - cuz it has been warmer than this in the past." Yes - I think you are an ignorant fool.

Jun 08, 2019
And how do we know that? Did you study it?


It's 2019 genius.

Jun 08, 2019
Washington Post Headline; "White House blocked intelligence agency's written testimony saying climate change could be 'possibly catastrophic'. It's not Al-Gore politicizing climate change, is it? All indications are that in a short 15 to 20 years, we will be seeing the beginnings of some very large population migrations from climate change and the consequences of AGW on agriculture and living conditions.

Old-C-code; It doesn't take much of a temperature change to make humans uncomfortable. Similarly with livestock and agriculture. If you think the world won't change, you're sadly mistaken. A 15C change from normal is a very large swing for any living thing. But since you seem to be fixated on the fallacy of extreme CO2 levels in the age of dinosaurs, here is a nice simple discussion of the facts on that;
https://skeptical...past.htm

Jun 08, 2019
don't care... that may put the survival of the human race at risk - cuz it has been warmer than this in the past.


The threat is that it will get warmer you clown. Showing that it's been much warmer in the past with plenty of life EVERYWHERE, proves you Alarmists are fools. Sad kids might have to listen to your BS. CO2 is good for life, except in the room you sit.

Jun 08, 2019
for the last 800,000 years - the system has clearly shown an interesting state of balance
No it hasnt.
We are clearly disturbing that balance
No we're not.
the earth has been in a state of equilibrium - oscillating back and forth between glacials and interglacials
This is not equlibrium.

See? I can argue just like you.

Jun 08, 2019
Humans are not some kind of heat-loving extremophile bacteria that can live in the acidic hot waters of a Yellowstone geyser. You don't go out an mow your grass if it's past 90F in all likely hood. It doesn't take much of a temperature rise to make outdoor work dangerous. Yet, you seem to argue that we can all learn to live with GW. That is where you are wrong Old-C-code. There will be many areas where people just can't live anymore and to survive they will migrate to cooler and more hospitable locations.

Jun 08, 2019
''Siberia habitable for humans ''

no, just Russians but we know they are not human, so nobody lives there now

Jun 08, 2019
Humans are not some kind of heat-loving extremophile bacteria that can live in the acidic hot waters of a Yellowstone geyser. You don't go out an mow your grass if it's past 90F in all likely hood. It doesn't take much of a temperature rise to make outdoor work dangerous
Consider that most of the worlds pops live and work in the tropics with no a/c, where its typically above 90F.

Youre just not acclimatized, thats all.
There will be many areas where people just can't live anymore
But there will be many more places where they CAN live.
and to survive they will migrate to cooler and more hospitable locations
No, most will grow old and die. But I dont think you realize just how mobile the worlds pops are. People on the move all the time, especially in the west, going off to school, moving from job to job, commuting, vacationing, retiring. Same with businesses relocating to better markets, better tax environments, etc.

Taxes will force gradual migration north.

Jun 08, 2019
otto
See? I can argue just like you
I provided a line of reasoning - and a source. Look at the pretty picture Otto - https://www.ncdc....e-change - 800,000 years of records - and the earth stayed neatly within a tight band of temperatures. Yes that is equilibrium
conditions in which all significant factors remain more or less constant over a period, and there is little or no inherent tendency for change


But you want to split hairs Otto - cuz all you know how to do is to spout stupid shit. If you could think critically - you would know exactly what I was saying. That the earth's temperature has stayed withing a pretty narrow band of temps, and C02 levels over the past 800,000 years. Shame you have nothing better to do than be a jerk on the internet.

Jun 08, 2019
Humans are not some kind of heat-loving extremophile bacteria...HAWW..HAWW..HEE

LMAO.
howShat Da Turd, brays.
Hey Shite for brains, can you explain why, millions from temperate climate, spend billions flocking to the hot tropics for their vacations?

Jun 08, 2019
@O_C_C.

As I already pointed out for you in another thread: 'domesticated' crops/cattle and other flora/fauna that helped build and support our complex civilisation and modern human diet was NOT in existence until relatively recently, mate. Most of the plants were woody/weedy types inedible/indigestible by human; and most of the animals that existed back then all went extinct or 'downsized'. If you want to continue existing as a modern human with the modern cultivated foods/diet/environment that sustains our vast numbers today, you can't just pretend it's ok to have a return to such extremes of temperature and instability of climate patterns as applied back when dinosaurs/plesiosaurs etc reigned supreme. Please think more carefully about what you wish for, @O_C_C, because you just might get it if we don't avert AGW 'tipping point'.

And you keep missing the point: renewables will be cheaper, safer, cleaner, sustainable for the longer term; saving us even MORE Trillions. :)

Jun 08, 2019
@antigoracle.
...millions from temperate climate, spend billions flocking to the hot tropics for their vacations?
...because they can duck into the nearest air-conditioned hotel to escape the oppressive heat when they get too much of it. And more air-conditioning powered by fossil fuelled generators will make the global warming problems ever worse. Think before you 'bias', mate. :)

Jun 08, 2019
ps @Old_C_Code.

Warming Siberia etc will only exacerbate transitional INSTABILITIES of weather/climate patterns which will destroy attempts at mass agriculture because of that instability. The only reason some agriculture is possible NOW 'in season' is the fact that there ARE such 'seasons'...and hence reasonably tolerable reliable conditions for a period of time during the year which can be predicted/depended-on sufficiently to allow the sowing and expected reaping of crops etc. But all that goes out the window if the instabilities during transition create frost/unseasonal storms etc at any time and so compromise any predictable 'sowing/growing/reaping' windows. Then there is the humongous transport/other infrastructure damage/costs as permafrost dissolves and buildings/roads/rail etc 'sink' into the mire. Not to mention the horrendous insect/disease/fungus etc that Siberian plants/animals are not adapted to. Human disease transmission/deaths will skyrocket. Rethinkitall.

Jun 08, 2019
Finally a place to move California, it's a win win, Russia gets all of our democrats and free thinkers, we get back America.

Jun 08, 2019
@Gimp.
Finally a place to move California, it's a win win, Russia gets all of our democrats and free thinkers, we get back America.
And who, exactly, is/are this "we'' you refer to, mate? :)

Jun 08, 2019
And who, exactly, is/are this "we'' you refer to, mate? :)
Old fundie nutjobs and those home "schooled" by them. The ones who help keep the average IQ down to 100.

Jun 08, 2019
Hey, @Old_Gimp, whatcha gonna eat?

Heat and drought. How you gonna grow anything? Double whammy.

Jun 08, 2019
Oh and then there's the floods. Maybe you forgot.

Jun 08, 2019
So basically you're gonna flee from the floods and heat and drought and tornadoes to the East and West coasts, and suddenly find out there are more people there and they have more guns than you do.

You're also gonna find sewage rope gangs ready to take revenge for their yards being flooded by their septic tanks. Recommended procedure: hang the liar deniers by their heels over a septic tank while the tide comes in.

Good luck with that.

Jun 08, 2019
Oh, and then there's the part about deporting the liar deniers to Siberia. We got more votes, and I'm waiting for national initiatives to override the gerrymandered Congress. Gonna happen. Wait for the Deportation of Threats to National Security initiative.

Jun 09, 2019
Yet, you seem to argue that we can all learn to live with GW. That is where you are wrong Old-C-code. There will be many areas where people just can't live anymore


And zombies will be running around attacking the people fleeing Godzilla who was released by a climate change crack in the Earth.

What an awful future. :/ For the delusional ignoramouses.

Things are better than ever before in human history. That's a fact.


Jun 09, 2019
When it's over 120F for days on end, people will go looking for somewhere cooler to live. When it's flooding, people will go looking for somewhere drier to live. All those places are farther north. Whatcha gonna do, have fantasies about shooting them all?

@Old_C_Coot, I ask again, whatcha gonna do? Fuck your talk. Whatcha gonna DO?

Jun 09, 2019
old c
Things are better than ever before in human history. That's a fact
Agreed - and again - I have to ask - So what? It seems that conservatives are driven to keep repeating talking points - without really thinking below the surface. Let me illustrate. Here is an example of a problem scientists are currently alerting us to. https://www.scien...direct=1

So do you think we should not pay attention to the issue of the crashing insect populations across the world - cuz "things have never been better?" Do you see how the point you blurt - really has no bearing on the issue of the science of climate change?

Jun 09, 2019
When it's over 120F for days on end ''

U mean like in the '10 's 20 's and thirties ?

https://www.youtu...mp;t=20s

Jun 09, 2019
Hey, @Old_Gimp, whatcha gonna eat?

Heat and drought. How you gonna grow anything? Double whammy.

Yeah, and and where are they gonna get their Mobile Homes? An who gonna make them their
coal duster tail pipes for theirs diesel pickup trucks?

Jun 09, 2019
I mean like the article we're commenting on, @snooze.

Jun 09, 2019
@snoosebaum.
When it's over 120F for days on end ''

U mean like in the '10 's 20 's and thirties ?

https://www.youtu...mp;t=20s
And they have been getting more frequent, hotter and more widespread across the globe and longer-lasting since then; along with more extreme storms/unseasonal weather events that are making farming/agriculture more precarious and costly. The diseases/pests are also spreading north and south affecting humans and livestock and crops and fisheries (both freshwater/saltwater) as never before.

In short, your 'source' has failed you again, @snoose. Time you went to competent sources for your info, mate. Don't be a willing "weaponised stupid" internet stooge for criminal mafias and greedy crazies who don't give a damn about you or your family, now or in the future.

Wise up, @snoosebaum, for your own and your family's/descendants' sake.

Good luck to us all. :)

Jun 09, 2019
@Old_C_Code.
Things are better than ever before in human history. That's a fact.
That is a silly triviality, mate. In every "better" era things are always "better than ever before"...UNTIL the next big disaster strikes!

I bet every species we drove to extinction would have agreed with you before we came along and slowly/rapidly wiped them out by direct means, by indirect means habitat destruction; creating conditions for pests/diseases to be more virulent/widespread.

@O_C_C, one would have thought a person of your age and (hopefully) intelligent/pragmatic approach to life/reality would by now have learnt all the most important lessons that living a long life should have taught you.

Please take time out to reconsider all the things you have been 'programmed' with and re-check their validity in reality past, present and projected future if we don't wise up to what humanity is doing to itself and the global ecosystem/climate system by 'fouling our own nest' like this.

Jun 09, 2019
and the earth stayed neatly within a tight band of temperatures. Yes that is equilibrium
I wouldn't consider 8 or 9 glacial/interglacial periods in the last million years any sort of equlibrium.
https://serc.carl.../4a.html

Jun 09, 2019
Otto
I wouldn't consider 8 or 9 glacial/interglacial periods in the last million years any sort of equlibrium
Because - as usual - you want to pick a fight over the definition of a word - rather than understand the point being made. So here is the POINT. For the past 800,000 years - temperature and C02 levels - have oscillated between warming and cooling - about 9 times. Here is my evidence for that assertion - https://images.th...fit=clip

I referred to that as a state of equilibrium (oscillating back and forth within a fairly tight range of values). The current warming trend is anomalous to that pattern. That's the point being made. As usual - you want to jump into a thread - and pick a fight - and be a dick.

Jun 09, 2019
Hey Otto - why don't you read your own link? The correct answer to the question on the first quiz is -
temperature fluctuates between warm and cold in fairly regular cycles
Now I called that equilibrium. I understand that if you wanted to pick a fight - you might say that you would not consider that 'equilibrium.' Pure semantics. It is a regular 'pattern' - (word from your own article) - that we are clearly now disturbing.

Jun 10, 2019
Now I called that equilibrium... oscillating back and forth within a fairly tight range of values
So equilibrium in your mind would also be the repeated melting and resolidifying of the crust, right? Im sure it happens on some exoplanet somewhere. How would you if humans could have any affect on that sort of thing either?

You haven't defined 'tight' let alone 'fairly tight'. Glaciation and coastal flooding seem fairly loose to me, and AGW hasn't come even close.

Jun 10, 2019
Close, that is, as in melting the Greenland icecap or exposing beringia. Or even covering venice or new orleans.

Jun 10, 2019
So equilibrium in your mind would also be the repeated melting and resolidifying of the crust, right?
Right. But you still of course miss the POINT. As I have showed with links - over the past 800,000 years or so - Earth's temps have oscillated back and forth - as a result of Milakovich Cycles - withing a fairly narrow band of temps (around 12 to 14 degrees C top to bottom.) I referred to that as 'equilibrium' - I am happy with that term - but fine if you want to start an argument over semantics - rather than understand the point being made. I will re-state it for your tiny brain. For the past 800,000 years - earth's climate has oscillated on pretty regular basis - within a fairly tight band of temps. We have clearly disrupted that pattern. That is the point Otto. You just can't help yourself being a dick - and wanting to pick fights over semantics. Replace the word equilibrium with 'regular pattern of oscillations' if you want. Oh - then you can't be a dick can you?

Jun 11, 2019
Otto - let me take a crack at explaining how I see things - and why I push back against the idiot class (you included). We are in a war. On one side - there are insanely smart people (scientists) - who are trying to poke and prod our universe - to develop our understanding. We have come a long way - but have barely scratched the surface. On the other side - are a group of dumb asses (the majority) - who believe the scientists are in a conspiracy - to take over the world. So when the scientists tell us the world is warming - they (the dumb asses) scream - 'liars liars - don't believe them - they are trying to steal your money - and take over the world.' In reality - we have barely scratched the surface - and (just for example) our understanding of the human body - is still VERY crude. Just look at our fight with cancer. Every day there are new articles about the process of cancer - and metastasis - and showing that we have so much left to learn. cont.

Jun 11, 2019
In many ways - the docs are still fumbling in the dark - with oven mits on - trying to evolve our understanding of the insanely complex bag of cells called our body. The pace of progress - is very tied to our political/economic priorities. There is of course so much at stake - including how long we all live - and our quality of life. We just lost Hawking - cuz we don't yet understand ALS. So I read sites like physorg - cuz I am excited to see what the brilliant community of scientists are up to. I also try to follow politics closely - but shit there is only so many hours in a day - and I am supposed to exercise, and eat right, and all kinds of other shit too. So you dumb asses - are really hurting our progress. And you don't give a shit - as long as you can feel better about yourselves - by using your ignorant political bullshit - to kill progress. So I hate you - and I push back. There - that feels better - for a few seconds anyway...

Jun 11, 2019
within a fairly tight band of temps. We have clearly disrupted that pattern
How? By making worse glaciation or inter glaciation? We haven't exceeded either of those extremes. We haven't affected their onset or timing.

As people here and in other threads have showed you, no extremes have been changed by AGW. You haven't cited examples that haven't been exceeded in recorded history.

If you are going to use instantiation to try to win your point you are going to lose because there are contrary instances for every one you cite.

Instantiation is for loser politicians like AOC. "That was a really bad hurricane! See we only have 12 years to live!!"

And then someone will remind her of this:

Jun 11, 2019
"The most recent years of 1991 through 1994 have experienced the quietest tropical cyclone activity on record in terms of frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes. This was followed by the 1995 hurricane season, one of the busiest in the past 50 years. Despite 1995's activity, a long-term (five decade) downward trend continues to be evident primarily in the frequency of intense hurricanes. In addition, the mean maximum intensity (i.e., averaged over all cyclones in a season) has decreased, while the maximum intensity attained by the strongest hurricane each year has not shown a significant change."

-And she will counter with "But no no you don't understand! That last one was really bad! I mean really really bad!!"

-just like you. You suck up everything those liberal arts academies say because it feels good, not because it makes any sense. And your politicians are counting on your gullibility. Not AOC however, she's as dumb as you.

Jun 11, 2019
Hey I looked at your charts and I noticed the CO2 spike... the corresponding temp actually went down.

Somebody screwed up eh?

Did you fail to see that revealing anomaly or did you just ignore it?

No we don't trust your academie political graphs and statistics. Of course they're fudged.
I also try to follow politics closely
Only your side of the fence. If you were serious and objective you'd be watching fox, Limbaugh, Levin, and hannity.

I recommend Google news. You can get a list of many different news sources, and compare substance and content. After awhile it becomes glaringly clear where the news is and where the lying bullshit is.

Jun 11, 2019
no extremes have been changed by AGW.
Yes they have - https://www.wefor...00-years

Look carefully at the C02 levels. Now look at the 2 temperature reconstructions here - https://grist.org...y-stick/
So while it would be true to say - that over the past million years - temperatures have at times been higher than they are today. How do we know that Otto? Did you do the research? NO you did not. The scientists did the research. And they are the ones who are warning us about the current problem. Which is - that C02 levels HAVE exceeded any level in the past 800,000 years (see you are a liar) - and temperatures have reversed a 7,000 year cooling trend - and are now spiking up.
temperatures are shooting through the roof faster than we've ever seen
Instantiation is for loser politicians like AOC
Keep being a dick Otto...

Jun 12, 2019
How do we know that Otto? Did you do the research?
uh I looked at your graph. But I suppose it could be bullshit. Except it does show a downturn in temps which you still have failed to address. Why the downturn on the graph you refed?
C02 levels HAVE exceeded any level in the past 800,000 years (see you are a liar)
I didn't say anything about CO2 not spiking up.
and temperatures have reversed a 7,000 year cooling trend - and are now spiking up
So what? Your graph shows them spiking up far higher many times in the past. Without your megaspike. Perhaps there are other influences in play? Major influences heretofore unknown to your scientists like the 10x more CO2 being produced by industry that they didn't even know about? (see other thread)

Sorry neither they nor you appear to know enough to be drawing these sorts of conclusions. Unless your greenie degenerate politics demands it.

Jun 12, 2019
I suspect this whole leftist AGW thing is typical misdirection. Pollution is the problem, not warming. Dirty filthy plastic is EVERYWHERE. Chemicals, effluent, garbage mounds... these are things we CAN do something about. But just like ABORTION, which targets your precious minorities just like Margaret sanger wanted it to, AGW is being promoted by hordes of frothing shills like yourself who love it because it makes the people you already hate, responsible for it. You're working FOR industry, not against it.

So easy to ignore all the contrary evidence.

Re ABORTIONS
"Total estimated abortions by race/ethnicity for 1965-2018 (and compared to current population) are:
white, non-Hispanic: 28,900,000 (14% of current population)
black, non-Hispanic: 18,700,000 (42% of current population)
Hispanic: 9,200,000 (15% of current population)"

This is why most planned parenthood clinics are in minority neighborhoods.
http://www.johnst...isc.html

Jun 12, 2019
It's like this
Things are better than ever before in human history. That's a fact
Agreed - and again - I have to ask - So what?
This proves you don't know history nor are you aware of the current state of the world. Countries resort to prenatal infanticide of 20-50% of all pregnancies just to keep ahead of collapse. And these countries are being flooded with the excess people from the countries that dont.
https://www.migra...-country

-Just because they have cell phones doesn't mean they aren't desperate, starving, and lucky. The Arab countries that were able to avoid the Arab spring did so only by expelling sufficient numbers of overage. Bin laden gathered them up in Pakistan and sent them west and into coalition guns.

Current wars are wars of attrition meant to reduce pop pressure.

Jun 12, 2019
Otto
Except it does show a downturn in temps which you still have failed to address
Because it is a distraction. The point under discussion is your false assertion that
no extremes have been changed by AGW
So the pattern. You make a false assertion. When challenged on that assertion with evidence - you bullshit and obfuscate.

Jun 12, 2019
So evidence you dont like is a distraction? Of course it is.

Jun 13, 2019
So evidence you dont like is a distraction? Of course it is
Not the point Otto. When you make a false assertion - and it can be proven to be a false assertion - then changing the subject is a distraction.

You said
no extremes have been changed by AGW
Which is a lie. C02 levels are higher than they have been in 800,000 years (and that is the time period I have been discussing with Old C). So of course - it begs the question 'why is Otto interested in lying.' And of course - the answer is that Otto is not interested in truth - just in having a childish ego battle with what ever thread he can hijack - cuz Otto as always - is being a dick.

Jun 13, 2019
Which is a lie. C02 levels are higher than they have been in 800,000 years
Let's go back to your original blather. You said
We are clearly disturbing that balance. That balance has allowed the conditions for life to flourish. We are now witnessing real time - a great die off of species
-and then you cited a CBS article in which scientists say it is our misuse if the land and oceans that are causing the extinctions, not CO2.

That's a lie.

Of course they have to mention 'climate change' because they're paid to spin that shit. But that's not what the article is about. It's about physical disruption of habitats.

Co2 levels may or may not be higher. Radio waves from broadcast transmissions are higher than ever. Thats certainly an artificial extreme. Neither can be shown to be causing extinctions. And per the graph you yourself refed, temps are going down despite your alleged imbalance.

Jun 13, 2019
Otto - a direct quote from the CBS article
There's no doubt we are in an unprecedented period of global stress in terms of climate impacts. And basically the natural world is being hit by what I call the big three. Certainly climate change is up there. Habitat destruction by humans is absolutely key. And we're also adding pollution to the ecosystem. It sounds pretty grim, and it is grim
The fact that you don't like the facts - does not make them not facts - big fat liar.

So again - you just deflect from the POINT - which is that you told a lie - and were challenged on that lie. Now all you can do is bullshit and obfuscate.

Jun 13, 2019
the big three
you dont like the facts
-I dont like it when political speculation is lumped in with facts. Two of the 'big three' are backed by evidence. Climate change leading to extinctions is not.

Which was my earlier point - pollution is a fixable problem. So is habitat destruction. But climate change is pure politics like gun control, right to choose, or any of the other darling causes you libs love to embrace, simply because it IS unscientific, impossible to quantify, prove or disprove. Hyper emotion, endless argument, never getting anywhere.

This is a little trick you guys borrowed from religion and philosophy... the soul/consciousness. AGW is metaphysics. It is MISDIRECTION funded by the corporations who do not want to stop polluting and exploiting the environment.

Wake up. Concentrate on the first 2, the real ones, like most of the scientists in your article. And accept OVERPOPULATION as humanity's #1 problem, which will eventually solve both of them.

Jun 13, 2019
BTW, your CBS ref says nothing about CO2, even though you used it as such. And like I said your earlier chart showed a temp decline in conjunction with your spike.

Why won't you acknowledge that hmmm?

Jun 13, 2019
@TheGhostofOtto1923
@greenonions1.

@Ghost, if you keep this up the forum will soon be in no doubt that @greenonions1's observation about you/your agenda here is spot on. The point was that Climate Change is NOW become ONE of the BIG THREE factors mentioned in the article as responsible for accelerating changes in global climate/environment previously relatively stable within tolerable cyclic variations. And the evidence for increasing man-made CO2 emissions being a major factor in global warming is now become irrefutable even to blind Freddy. Hence why the global warming problem has been tagged 'Anthropogenic Global Warming' to reflect the connection to increasing MAN-made CO2 emissions. Please try to get yourself out of this latest bout of silly 'contrariness' on your part with as much grace/credibility as you can manage; and try sooner rather than later, else you will have missed the window of opportunity which is fast closing on you if you keep this up with @greenonions1. :)

Jun 13, 2019
Otto
BTW, your CBS ref says nothing about CO2, even though you used it as such
I did not use it as "such." You are such a bullshitter. I was simply pointing out that scientists are telling us that everything is not fine in our world. That there are things we need to be very concerned about. That declaring that "it has been warmer than this in the past - so we don't need to worry about anything" - is just stupid denialism. Keep missing the point Otto....

Jun 13, 2019
Otto
Two of the 'big three' are backed by evidence. Climate change leading to extinctions is not.
Are you sure about that Otto? I mean really really sure? What qualifies you contradict the opinion of 300 international experts in the field? How is it that you could be so cock sure - that you are willing to take such a huge risk?
Habitat destruction and overfishing are, for now, the main causes of biodiversity declines, according to the I.P.B.E.S., but climate change is emerging as a "direct driver" and is "increasingly exacerbating the impact of other drivers."


https://www.newyo...tinction

Jun 14, 2019
that everything is not fine in our world
Dont I know it - the rf flux is giving me headaches. I think my S8 is destroying my left eye.
How is it that you could be so cock sure - that you are willing to take such a huge risk?
You're right - RF should be illegal. I think we should spend a few trillion to get rid of it like you want to do with - what was it again? Steel plants? Diesel engines? Cow farts? Hey I know - how about a few billion people? That would certainly work.

But it would be wrong.

Besides done is done - ONE BILLION ABORTIONS since roe v wade, did you know it? Plus their descendants to the 3rd and 4th gen, plus all those never conceived thanks to Rockefeller-supplied contraception worldwide... plus everything else that has gone to reduce the birthrate.

THATS the real solution, happening right before your eyes. But you're too distracted by shiny baubles like AGW and women's lib.

Dupe.

Jun 14, 2019
"but climate change is emerging as a "direct driver" and is "increasingly exacerbating the impact of other drivers."... Of course we dont know for sure, but we have a pretty good idea, and it seems right, and besides all the lib politicians love it and are just itching to throw truckloads (battery-powered) at it, because they just LOVE to pass more laws because it makes them look like they're doing their jobs. And cory Booker's corporate sponsors are getting their money's worth.

Hey did you hear about the new NY law banning muskian flamethrowers? It's called preemptive legislation. Somebody is bound to get burnt sooner or later you know?

Exactly like AGW.

How foul. How sick. How criminal.

Jun 14, 2019
Truckloads - of tax money. Big govt wouldn't be big without a large portion of your hard-earned cash to fuel it. Burning all that cash - now THATS AGW.

Here's an interesting optic
https://www.usdeb...ock.html

-But it must not be as bad as it looks because

"Using the state Medi-Cal program, which offers free or low-cost health coverage for those with limited incomes, the state estimates this will provide free health care to what they believe is 100,000 illegal immigrants between the ages of 19 and 25 years old."

-which is probably very low because

"More than one million immigrants in the country illegally have obtained special California driver's licenses"

-and we do know the vast majority of illegals are young males.

Hey how about this???

"Joe Biden says that he' ll cure cancer if he's elected president" hmmm I guess his cancer moonshot fell short.

But its akin to jesus promising eternal life for your vote, yes?

Jun 14, 2019
Wow Otto - way to go on a psychotic rant - that has nothing to do with the fact that you lied - and were challenged on that lie. So then what do you do? Go on a crazed rant about abortions, muskian flame throweres (what ever they are), illegal immigrants with drivers licenses, Joe Biden curing cancer, and who knows what else.


Jun 17, 2019
So what I see from your psychotic rant Otto - is that you view every problem as a screaming match - between your boogey man the 'liberal' - and some mythical construct the 'conservative.' 'Conservative' is a mythical construct. The contradictions between conservative ideology, and real behavior are glaring. Let's take one example - fiscal responsibility. Oh right - until Trump - the great 'conservative' gets in power - and we blow national debt through the ceiling. In reality - 'conservatism' is all racism. You guys hate brown people - and thus turn a discussion of climate change - into a rant about immigrants. Once poked - you cannot help but squeal. Where the world goes is an unknown. We may go extinct, or we may find solutions. We may learn to live together - sustainably. Or we may let hate win - and tear ourselves to shreds. I do agree with you - we are in a war.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more