Climate change has worsened global economic inequality

Climate change has worsened global economic inequality
The economic impact of global warming during the 1961-2010 and 1991-2010 periods. The value for each country is the estimated impact of global warming on country-level per capita GDP. Differences in the presence/absence of countries between the 1961-2010 and 1991-2010 periods reflect differences in the availability of country-level economic data. Differences in the magnitude of country-level values between the 1961-2010 and 1991-2010 periods reflect the influence of accumulation time on the net accumulated economic impact. Credit: Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke.

A new Stanford University study shows global warming has increased economic inequality since the 1960s. Temperature changes caused by growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere have enriched cool countries like Norway and Sweden, while dragging down economic growth in warm countries such as India and Nigeria.

"Our results show that most of the poorest countries on Earth are considerably poorer than they would have been without ," said climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, lead author of the study published April 22 in the peer-reviewed Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "At the same time, the majority of rich countries are richer than they would have been."

The study, co-authored with Marshall Burke, a Stanford assistant professor of Earth system science, finds that, from 1961 to 2010, global warming decreased the wealth per person in the world's by 17 to 30 percent. Meanwhile, the gap between the group of nations with the highest and lowest economic output per person is now approximately 25 percent larger than it would have been without climate change.

Although between countries has decreased in recent decades, the research suggests the gap would have narrowed faster without global warming.

Ideal temperature for economic output

The study builds on previous research in which Burke and co-authors analyzed 50 years of annual temperature and GDP measurements for 165 countries to estimate the effects of temperature fluctuations on . They demonstrated that growth during warmer than average years has accelerated in cool nations and slowed in warm nations.

"The historical data clearly show that crops are more productive, people are healthier and we are more productive at work when temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold," Burke explained. "This means that in cold countries, a little bit of warming can help. The opposite is true in places that are already hot."

In the current study, Diffenbaugh and Burke combined Burke's previously published estimates with data from more than 20 climate models developed by research centers around the world. Using the climate models to isolate how much each country has already warmed due to human-caused , the researchers were able to determine what each country's economic output might have been had temperatures not warmed.

To account for uncertainty, the researchers calculated more than 20,000 versions of what each country's annual economic growth rate could have been without global warming. The estimates in the paper capture the range of outcomes delivered by those thousands of different routes.

Climate change has worsened global economic inequality
The change in annual surface air temperature resulting from historical anthropogenic climate forcing. The change in temperature is calculated using 21 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and is the ensemble-mean difference between the CMIP5 Historical and Natural forcing experiments during the IPCC's historical baseline period (1986-2005). Credit: Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke.

"For most countries, whether global warming has helped or hurt economic growth is pretty certain," said Burke. Tropical countries, in particular, tend to have temperatures far outside the ideal for economic growth. "There's essentially no uncertainty that they've been harmed."

It's less clear how warming has influenced growth in countries in the middle latitudes, including the United States, China and Japan. For these and other temperate-climate nations, the analysis reveals economic impacts of less than 10 percent.

"A few of the largest economies are near the perfect temperature for economic output. Global warming hasn't pushed them off the top of the hill, and in many cases, it has pushed them toward it," Burke said. "But a large amount of warming in the future will push them further and further from the temperature optimum."

Dragged down by warming

While the impacts of may seem small from year to year, they can yield dramatic gains or losses over time. "This is like a savings account, where small differences in the interest rate will generate large differences in the account balance over 30 or 50 years," said Diffenbaugh, the Kara J. Foundation professor in Stanford's School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). For example, after accumulating decades of small effects from warming, India's economy is now 31 percent smaller than it would have been in the absence of global warming.

At a time when climate policy negotiations often stall over questions of how to equitably divide responsibility for curbing future warming, Diffenbaugh and Burke's analysis offers a new measure of the price many countries have already paid. "Our study makes the first accounting of exactly how much each country has been impacted economically by global warming, relative to its historical greenhouse gas contributions," said Diffenbaugh, who is also Kimmelman Family senior fellow in the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

While the biggest emitters enjoy on average about 10 percent higher per capita GDP today than they would have in a world without warming, the lowest emitters have been dragged down by about 25 percent. "This is on par with the decline in economic output seen in the U.S. during the Great Depression," Burke said. "It's a huge loss compared to where these countries would have been otherwise."

The researchers emphasize the importance of increasing sustainable energy access for economic development in poorer countries. "The more these countries warm up, the more drag there's going to be on their development," Diffenbaugh said. "Historically, rapid economic development has been powered by fossil fuels. Our finding that global warming has exacerbated economic inequality suggests that there is an added economic benefit of energy sources that don't contribute to further ."

Diffenbaugh is also an affiliate of the Precourt Institute for Energy. Burke is a center fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and, by courtesy, at the Woods Institute for the Environment.


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More information: Noah S. Diffenbaugh el al., "Global warming has increased global economic inequality," PNAS (2019). www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1816020116
Citation: Climate change has worsened global economic inequality (2019, April 22) retrieved 15 October 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2019-04-climate-worsened-global-economic-inequality.html
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Apr 22, 2019
A new Stanford University study shows global warming has increased economic inequality since the 1960s.

Notice that "economic inequality" has grown between poor countries and wealthy countries. It just so happens most of those poor countries are also located in warm places. Notice also that poor countries are poor mostly because they have lousy government, oppression, restricted access to markets, etc. Rich countries have good government, freedom, relatively unfettered access to markets. But gotta be that ol' global warmin' what done it. Because correlation must be causation to dimwit "scientists".

most of the poorest countries on Earth are considerably poorer than they would have been without global warming

It's hard to know what to say to this species of nonsense. They have no valid metric for even measuring this but they pull this bizarre statement out of the hat like it's a fact. Wow. Just wow.

Apr 22, 2019
Well if the One World Government types would stop creating civil unrest and wars among the impoverished countries perhaps things would get better for them. The OWG crowd wants this unrest in order foster mass migration and collapse Western governments.

Apr 22, 2019
As has been said, global warming is not coming. It's here now, and has already had bad effects. It's only going to get worse unless we do something about it. And the longer the liar deniers worm and squirm and FUD, the worse it's gonna get.

Apr 22, 2019
Well if the One World Government types would stop creating civil unrest...

One World Government types??? You must be one of the conspiracy type idiots that loves to chime in on science discussion boards and contribute bullshit to provoke your right-wing base supports. (You get that good-old-boy *attaboy* slap on the back from you perverted AGW denier goon squad flakes.)

Apr 22, 2019
This is a totally fabricated report designed to support the notion that wealthy nations should/must transfer a substantial portion of their wealth to third world nations. Global warming has not impoverished the third world nations (they were already impoverished) nor has it make the wealthy nations wealthy (they were already wealthy).

This is just a continuation of the socialist demand that we transfer wealth from the well-to-do to the never-did-well.

As always, the global warming dialogue is being used to promote the socialist agenda.

Apr 22, 2019
Double post removed.

Apr 23, 2019
The resident far-right - MR166, with explicit racism and insane counterfactual conspiracy theorizing, and dogbert, with typical rightist American red-baiting - is losing its shit once again.

Whenever reality has a liberal bias, reality must be put in its place, because conservatism is always right...

Apr 23, 2019
Life expectancy has gone up dramatically over the last 150 years. This can be the only true measure of wealth distribution. Every other data point can be manipulated by those who have an agenda.

Apr 23, 2019
Something is not write with the map on top. It shows that the USA has a DECLINE of GDP per capita in those 20 years. According to Google the USA has had about 70% INCREASE in GDP per capita on the last 20 years. Haven't checked for the other countries, but can't believe that China also has had a decline. I suspect that this is Fake News.

Apr 23, 2019
The US has been destabalizing the ME ever since Bush 1. This was purposeful!

"April Glaspie, the US Ambassador to Iraq, told Saddam Hussein that "the US government has no opinion on the coming military activities."

A few months later he invaded Iraq and when finished he stated that this was the start of a New World Order. I did not realize at the time exactly what he meant. Then Bush 2 came along and we all know what he did. Here is the clincher, not only did Obama continue Bush's ME wars he doubled down and widened the efforts to more countries and actively supported the creation of ISIS and other terrorist groups. That is when I realized that there are no longer two parties in the US and only one entity controls our government. That entity is using mass immigration into western countries as a means of destroying western governments.

Impoverished countries may not have enough money for food and clean water but they have no problem obtaining AK-47s.

Apr 23, 2019
Gonna love watching the sewage and flood rope gangs coming for you assholes with more guns than you have.

Apr 23, 2019
"sewage and flood rope gangs"

Da are you referring to the rich who built their homes on filled coastal wet lands?

Apr 23, 2019
No, I'm referring to the people who believed you dumbshits when you said there'd be no coastal flooding from the melting ice you claimed wasn't happening, and there'd be no extreme flooding because of the warming you said wasn't happening. Those people will be coming for you. You should probably hide in your basement and hope your mommy can stop them.

Apr 23, 2019
Noted that the mainstream media isn't reporting on the ongoing flooding. Billions of dollars of commerce are floating away. And no one is reporting on it.

So much for the ginormous globul waruming cunspirasy.

Apr 23, 2019
What complete nonsense. Things are better than ever before in human history.


Apr 23, 2019
Better productivity in Sweden, perhaps, we see droughts and new parasites as well.

A new Stanford University study shows global warming has increased economic inequality since the 1960s.


Notice that "economic inequality" has grown between poor countries and wealthy countries. It just so happens most of those poor countries are also located in warm places.


That is not relevant I think, the article claim they modeled only the difference from global warming. Neither of us has read the paper, but I note that you don't reference your claim that those factors matters while the article description say it does not.

Makes me think the only reason you commented is because you don't like the subject of climate science and its results! (But we cannot dodge facts.)

Apr 23, 2019
This is a totally fabricated report
.

Claims made without evidence can be rejected without evidence.

Makes me think the only reason you commented is because you don't like the subject of climate science and its results! (But we cannot dodge facts.)

I blocked you for inane trolling, so don't bother respond.

Apr 23, 2019
here is a list of things caused by global warming , meanwhile everthing looks pretty normal 'cept for the insanity of the left

http://www.whatre...ng2.html

Apr 23, 2019
Yup today's green progressives are too smart to believe in rattles and chicken bones. That is why the the computer climate models had to be developed. Those High Priests are no dummies.

Apr 23, 2019
LMAO.
Oh NOSE!
All those suffering poor people in the deserts of the Middle East. No wait...it's too hot there, for AGW.

While the biggest emitters enjoy on average about 10 percent higher per capita GDP today than they would have in a world without warming, the lowest emitters have been dragged down by about 25 percent.

The only thing more amusing than the AGW Cult's proclivity for seeing grey in silver lining is the Chicken Littles' hunger for their lies. The fact that access to cheap, reliable energy, makes for better socio-economic conditions, is well beyond their grasp.

Gobble up Chicken Littles.

Apr 23, 2019
" The fact that access to cheap, reliable energy, makes for better socio-economic conditions, is well beyond their grasp."

That is why they are so against coal. Cheap and available energy creates wealth which makes people free and independent. Their need for government is reduced killing the Socialists dream of total control of society.

Apr 24, 2019
Coal can't even compete in a free market anymore, which is why retarded Trumpkins like the civilization-hating freaks above conveniently leave out that their Fuehrer wants to subsidize coal to keep it in business.

Also, how stupid do you have to be to consider air pollution a good thing? At least as stupid as MR166, who is a conspiracy theorist, and antigoracle, who is so stupid that he posted a link saying "14%" to back up his retarded claim of "6%" when trying to argue that there is no growth of renewable energy in The Netherlands, a country he couldn't even point out on the map without help.

He's also such a spineless coward that he's refused to even respond after being called out, repeatedly, on his bizarre stupidity in re those numbers. He's not man enough to stand up for his own words, the pathetic little shit.

You people are beyond contemptible. It would be poetic justice if you died of respiratory failure through the pollution you so love.

Apr 24, 2019
People like TQ are just useful idiots in the war against Western values. TQ equates the need for secure borders with racism. In Europe immigrants are creating "No Go Zones" where the host countries laws do not apply. Here in the US the same is happening while our welfare system and health system supports them. The fact that these immigrants do not carry arms when crossing the border does not make them any less of an army.

Apr 24, 2019
@MR166:

Your kind has been lying about Europe for ages. Your current ambassador to my country, Pete Hoekstra, was the liar who had to apologize for his claims of such no go-zones when he was installed.

Seriously, the deranged views entertained by the American right about Europe would be laughable if they weren't so dangerous. They are simply not grounded in reality at all, it's just layers of right wing talk-radio rhetoric all the way down.

Regarding your views on immigration: if they are *not* founded on racist considerations, then why aren't you decrying the huge number of western European immigrants who flooded your country between the Civil War and the late 20th century?

Both your healthcare system and your welfare system are a horribly patchy mess (an seemingly unavoidable result of the political system, mostly) but also of outrageously low quality compared to most other western countries, while your GDP per capita is near the top of the list.

Apr 24, 2019
"Regarding your views on immigration: if they are *not* founded on racist considerations, then why aren't you decrying the huge number of western European immigrants who flooded your country between the Civil War and the late 20th century?"

Only a Progressive like TQ would unable to understand the difference between legal immigration and illegal immigration.

Apr 24, 2019
Only an utterly clueless far-right ignoramus like MR166 could know so little about his country's history yet speak with such authority.

There was no immigration law at all before 1875, unless you count the Naturalization Act of 1790, which states that only free whites can become naturalized citizens. Until 1917 practically no immigration laws applied to Europeans. All that is entirely beside the point, too.

The point is that exactly the same hysterical fears that MR166 utters were, frequently, expressed with regards to European immigration in the 19th and 20th centuries. Which led to a far higher per capita influx of foreigners with far more associated problems than today.

But hey, MR166 and his buddies like to hide behind an utterly anachronistic distinction between legal and illegal immigration that fails to understand the nature of immigration laws of earlier generations. As usual, the views of the far right are based on lack of comprehension and counterfactual prejudice.

Apr 24, 2019
TQ if you have to go all the way back to 1790 to make a point about modern immigration you are not really that credible.

Apr 24, 2019
Coincidently (or not) these are the countries and regions experiencing the greatest population growth, courtesy of religion. This is the more inconvenient truth.

Luckily, one problem will solve the other. Global warming should make these regions uninhabitable in the open, unless of course global warming isnt real. Then we would be faced with the possibility that overpop was shamelessly used as false evidence for AGW, thereby leaving people to suffer and die rather than addressing the REAL problem.

Or we might even suspect that AGW was in fact the only way to clear these regions of the obsolete cultures causing overpop and all related problems such as 'global economic inequality'.

Apr 24, 2019
Until 1917 practically no immigration laws applied to Europeans
"In 1624 Virginia was made a crown colony. Because of the establishment of the English Church, hostility was shown to adherents of other beliefs and to Catholics in particular... Stringent legislation was enacted against Catholics. In 1641 a decree declared that adherents of the pope were to be fined 1000 pounds of tobacco if they attempted to hold office.[4] The following year all priests were given five days within which to leave the colony...

-But wait theres more...

"The governor issued orders to magistrates, sheriffs, constables, and people to be diligent in the apprehension and bringing to justice of all Catholic priests... In 1699 Catholics were deprived of their right of voting, and later a fine of 500 pounds of tobacco was imposed upon violators of the law. They were declared incompetent as witnesses in 1705..."

-Thats just virginia.

As usual you fall for bullshit leftist propaganda.

Apr 24, 2019
If we are going to judge a country's actions let's at least talk about modern times. Post WW2 seems like a reasonable starting point. A lot of views have changed since then and we also face a whole new set of problems.

Apr 24, 2019
Oh NOSE!
I've stepped into the MisanthroVerse, or it could just be that I've slipped into a sorry state of loneliness. Anyway, I find myself agreeing (not really) with the "dark" one, aka our resident misanthropist.
unless of course global warming isnt real. Then we would be faced with the possibility that overpop was shamelessly used as false evidence for AGW, thereby leaving people to suffer and die rather than addressing the REAL problem.

Ain't that the truth.

Apr 24, 2019
distinction between legal and illegal immigration that fails to understand the nature of immigration laws of earlier generations
-And tq seems to be hung up on words like 'immigration'. People have been discouraged from here, and expelled, and persecuted once they got here, since the colonies were established. Under the law.

Apr 24, 2019
Something is not write with the map on top. It shows that the USA has a DECLINE of GDP per capita in those 20 years. ... I suspect that this is Fake News. -Bart_A
Actually RTFA would have revealed that this wasn't the total change in GDP, only the change in GDP attributable to GW. I suspect Bart_A is a fake intellectual.

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