High heat but no record: 2018 was 4th warmest year on Earth

January 24, 2019 by Seth Borenstein
High heat but no record: 2018 was 4th warmest year on Earth
In this Saturday, Aug. 4, 2018 file photo, people cool off in a fountain during a hot summer day in the Basque city of Vitoria, northern Spain. In 2018, 29 countries and Antarctica had record hot years, says Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos)

While Earth was a tad cooler last year than the last couple of years, it still was the fourth warmest on record, a new analysis shows.

With the partial U.S. government shutdown, federal agency calculations for last year's temperatures are delayed. But independent scientists at Berkeley Earth calculate that last year's average temperature was 58.93 degrees (14.96 degrees Celsius).

That's 1.39 degrees (0.77 degrees Celsius) warmer than the average from 1951 to 1980 and about 2.09 degrees (1.16 degrees Celsius) warmer than pre-industrial times.

It's likely other temperature measuring groups will agree on 2018's ranking since they had it at fourth hottest through November, said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. The Japanese Meteorological Agency has already calculated it at fourth. Record-keeping started in 1850.

Only 2016, 2017 and 2015 were warmer than last year, with only small differences among them. That was mostly because of natural yearly weather variations like El Nino and La Nina, Hausfather said. He said it would be foolish to call last year's slight dip a cooling trend.

"The long term is stunningly clear," he said.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist, who wasn't part of the Berkeley Earth team, said the fact that nearly every year recently is in the top five or top 10 hottest years is "clear evidence of human-caused warming on this planet."

Last year, 29 countries, including much of Central Europe, and Antarctica had record hot years, Hausfather said.

Explore further: Globe had fourth hottest March; US cooler than normal

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aksdad
1 / 5 (2) Jan 24, 2019
Hmmm... I wonder who the mystery, unnamed Penn State climate scientist was? Why was his name left out?

the fact that nearly every year recently is in the top five or top 10 hottest years is "clear evidence of human-caused warming on this planet."

Or it's clear evidence of a natural warming spike spawned by a large El Niño coupled with rather modest warming (1° C) over the last century; neither of which is evidence of anything "human-caused". It's just as likely that much of the warming of the last hundred years is a rebound from the cooler temperatures of the Little Ice Age.

Global temperature (last 40 years):
https://www.nsstc..._bar.png

El Niños (which correspond with temperature spikes):
https://ggweather.../oni.htm

1850-present
http://berkeleyea...arge.png

Little Ice Age
http://jonova.s3....ig-4.gif
greenonions1
not rated yet Jan 24, 2019
aksdad says
Global temperature
But then presents a graph of the lower troposphere. When the cherry picking is that blatant - it is easy to see straight through it.

Regarding this graphic given by aksdad - http://jonova.s3....ig-4.gif

Looking at the 1000 years of falling temps - perhaps aksdad could explain the reason for the sudden turn around - shortly after 1800!!!!
guptm
1 / 5 (2) Jan 24, 2019
Instead of telling 4th warmest on record, can this be re-written as nth coolest on record? n = ...
Just curious to know.
V4Vendicar
5 / 5 (1) Feb 07, 2019
Pennsylvania State University climate scientist, who wasn't part of the Berkeley Earth team, said the fact that nearly every year recently is in the top five or top 10 hottest years is "clear evidence of human-caused warming on this planet."

Republicans find that truth sooooooo inconvenient.
V4Vendicar
5 / 5 (1) Feb 07, 2019
--- aksdad writes ---

Little Ice Age
http://jonova.s3....ig-4.gif

---

Odd isn't it how aksdad and jonova don't indicate that the time line for the graphic above ends in the year 1950.

The Berkeley Earth data on the other hand is plotted with the y axis zero equal to the average over the time period shown and not the historical average which is 0.4'C lower.

So add 0.4'C to the Berkeley Earth y axis and you get a pretty nice replication of the NOAA data set.

What the Berkeley Earth data set shows is that there has been an additional warming of 0.6'C since 1950, which the jonova "little ice age" graphic doesn't show.

In other words jonova and aksdad are lying in plain site.

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