Recent warmer winters may be cooling climate change concern

Earth
A composite image of the Western hemisphere of the Earth. Credit: NASA

The vast majority of Americans have experienced more favorable weather conditions over the past 40 years, researchers from New York University and Duke University have found. The trend is projected to reverse over the course of the coming century, but that shift may come too late to spur demands for policy responses to address climate change.

The analysis, published in the journal Nature, found that 80 percent of Americans live in counties where the weather is more pleasant than four decades ago. Winter temperatures have risen substantially throughout the United States since the 1970s, but summers have not become markedly more uncomfortable. The result is that weather has shifted toward a temperate year-round climate that Americans have been demonstrated to prefer.

"Rising temperatures are ominous symptoms of global , but Americans are experiencing them at times of the year when warmer days are welcomed," explains Patrick J. Egan, an associate professor in NYU's Wilf Family Department of Politics who authored the study with Duke's Megan Mullin.

However, he and Mullin, an associate professor at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment, discovered a looming shift in these patterns when they used long-term projections of temperature changes to evaluate future weather Americans are likely to experience. According to these estimates, nearly 90 percent of the U.S. public may experience weather at the end of the 21st century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past.

"Weather patterns in recent decades have been a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand policies to combat the climate change problem," observes Mullin. "But without serious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, year-round climates ultimately will become much less pleasant."

In a 2012 study, the duo found that local weather temporarily influences people's beliefs about evidence for global warming. That research, which appeared in the Journal of Politics, found that those living in places experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures at the time they were surveyed were significantly more likely than others to say there is evidence for global warming.

In the Nature study, Egan and Mullin took a broader approach to understanding weather patterns—and how Americans experience them. The researchers analyzed 40 years of daily weather data (from 1974 through 2013) on a county-by-county basis to evaluate how the population's experience with weather changed during this period, which is when climate change first emerged as a public issue.

They found that Americans on average have experienced a steep rise in January maximum temperatures—an increase of 1.04 °F per decade (0.58 °C). By contrast, daily maximum temperatures in July rose by only 0.13 °F per decade (0.07 °C). Moreover, humidity in the summer has declined somewhat since the mid-1990s. In other words, have become warmer for virtually all Americans while summer conditions have remained relatively constant.

To quantify how Americans are evaluating these changes, Egan and Mullin drew upon research by economists examining weather's role in growth of the Sun Belt and population declines in the Northeast and Midwest. Using these findings, they developed a metric of the average American's preferences about weather. This "weather preference index" (WPI) reflects the U.S. public's preferences for places with warmer temperatures in winter and cooler temperatures and lower humidity in summer. The index also takes into account preferences about precipitation. Egan and Mullin found that WPI scores have risen in counties accounting for 80 percent of the U.S. population since the 1970s.

But projections of future temperatures—and future WPI scores—offer a markedly different picture. Climate change models predict that under all potential levels of future warming, average summer temperatures will ultimately rise at a faster rate than winter temperatures. Using these projections, the researchers calculated that under a severe warming scenario, WPI scores will decline such that an estimated 88 percent of the U.S. public will experience less pleasant at the end of this century than it has in the past 40 years.


Explore further

Local weather patterns affect beliefs about global warming, researchers find

More information: Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature17441
Journal information: Nature

Citation: Recent warmer winters may be cooling climate change concern (2016, April 20) retrieved 19 July 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2016-04-warmer-winters-cooling-climate.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
34 shares

Feedback to editors

User comments

Apr 20, 2016
"But projections of future temperatures"

there projections, not facts or certainties. I can remember a time when they said we would have nothing but increased hurricane activity, Now there is actually less hurricane activity. Let's try not to use Fear, Uncertainty or Denial and use common sense science!

Apr 20, 2016
LOL. Another nail in the coffin of AGW Cult's lies.

Apr 20, 2016
The mindset of the AGW Cult's doomsayers, worried that people are becoming too comfortable and happy.

Apr 20, 2016
anti..... no one is ever going to worry about you being happy......

Apr 20, 2016
Another meta climate 'study' without any facts from the social 'sciences'.
Time to get rid of this balderdash and strip pseudo sciences (including C'S') from universities.

Apr 20, 2016
Did unicorns ever exist or did they simply go extinct?

OR

Did AGW ever exist or did it simply go the way of unicorns?

Apr 20, 2016
It's quite obvious that this study couldn't reach the AGW Chicken Littles, hiding in their dark, damp basements, hoping for an end to their misery.

Apr 20, 2016
I'll be dead long before the turn of the century so I'll never get to experience the down side of global warming, just the beautiful 80 degree days from April through October here in the Pacific Northwest. Dang, that's depressing. Maybe I'll go run my 40ft boat up and down the river a couple times and burn up a couple hundred gallons of gas, that ought to cheer me up!

Apr 20, 2016
"But projections of future temperatures"

there projections, not facts or certainties. I can remember a time when they said we would have nothing but increased hurricane activity, Now there is actually less hurricane activity.


I find it amazing that deniers constantly remember things that never happened. Like "I remember when all the scientists were worried about an ice age!" and "I remember when they said the Arctic would be ice free all year round by 2015!" and "I remember when they said winter would not exist anymore and look, snow!"

I humbly suggest the problem is your memory. Because if you actually look at the history of climate science, none of those things are true. The predictions for hurricanes and cyclones were for LESS of larger MAGNITUDE. So the fact that there are less of higher magnitude is a validation of the science.

It's like y'all are trying to be textbook studies into confirmation bias.

Apr 20, 2016
Yes..but they were rhinoceroses. and yes, they went extinct.

Most likely due to human caused global warming. ;)

Did unicorns ever exist or did they simply go extinct?

OR

Did AGW ever exist or did it simply go the way of unicorns?


Apr 20, 2016
Did unicorns ever exist or did they simply go extinct?

OR

Did AGW ever exist or did it simply go the way of unicorns?


*sigh*

Apr 20, 2016
I find it amazing that deniers constantly remember things that never happened...blah..blah..

I find it UNamazing that Chicken Littles constantly believe things that never will happen.

Apr 20, 2016
The predictions for hurricanes and cyclones were for LESS of larger MAGNITUDE. So the fact that there are less of higher magnitude is a validation of the science.

Uh huh. And, my predictions for stupidity from the Chicken Littles were for MORE of larger MAGNITUDE. So the fact.... [as demonstrated above]
Find a single peer reviewed study that substantiates your ignoRANT above.

Apr 20, 2016
Too small to noticed over 40 years particularly as homes increasingly buffer against weather thanks to improved central heating and air cooling/conditioning. What matters is not temperature nor humidity "weather preference index" but extreme weather events (ones that break, bake, flood or incapacitate) that cannot be buffered against. I bet if you looked at where such events are more common or uncontrollable, you will also find where people panic most about climate change.

Apr 21, 2016
I don't know where the authors got their data. In the central and eastern U. S., for several years, winters have been colder with more snow/ice and summers have been milder with more rain with the exception of January this year which was unusually warm.

They are spot on, however, in noting that predictions, as always, are for gloom and doom.

The Chicken Littles of the world are constantly upset that that the sky is not really falling and will continue to squawk that the chunks of falling sky are getting bigger.


Apr 21, 2016
What matters is not temperature nor humidity

Temepratures do matter.

Warmer winters mean more insects in the spring (which in turn means more issues with insect caused crop failures)
Warmer winters also mean that some plants start to sprout when there is still significant chance of frost (which can lead to losses of an entire crop)

Having a few warmer days may be nice for humans who can elect to go outside or inside depoending on the weather. Plants do not have that luxury. And when our food production takes a hit we will notice (with rising prives and increase of people fleeing drought stricken areas)

Apr 21, 2016
"I find it amazing that deniers constantly remember things that never happened."

Oh Lee that is rich. Meanwhile the AGWs forget all the failed predictions and climate models!

Apr 21, 2016
"Warmer winters mean more insects in the spring (which in turn means more issues with insect caused crop failures)
Warmer winters also mean that some plants start to sprout when there is still significant chance of frost (which can lead to losses of an entire crop)

Having a few warmer days may be nice for humans who can elect to go outside or inside depoending on the weather. Plants do not have that luxury. And when our food production takes a hit we will notice (with rising prives and increase of people fleeing drought stricken areas).

Again another prediction that has not been backed up by facts. If anything increased CO2 levels have helped food production.

Apr 21, 2016
Again another prediction that has not been backed up by facts.

Did you notice that olive oil has become quite a bit more expensive recently?
Spain and Greece (the two main exporters of olive oil) have had exactly these problems due to unsually warm winters.

Apr 21, 2016
The same old PO Denial Band... singing the only tune they know.
"It is impossible for someone to lie unless he thinks he knows the truth. Producing bullshit requires no such conviction." - Harry Frankfurt

Apr 21, 2016

I find it amazing that deniers constantly remember things that never happened...blah..blah...

I humbly suggest the problem is your memory. Because if you actually look at the history of climate science, none of those things are true. The predictions for hurricanes and cyclones were for LESS of larger MAGNITUDE. So the fact that there are less of higher magnitude is a validation of the science.

It's like y'all are trying to be textbook studies into confirmation bias.

I find it unamazing that Chicken Littles constantly remember things that never happened...

I humbly suggest the problem is your stupidity. Because if you actually look at the history of climate science, nothing is true. If your predictions don't come true, then just make shit up and spew it out of where the sun don't shine and let the rest of the ignorant Chicken Littles give you 5s for it.
https://www.googl...fe_rd=cr

Apr 21, 2016
Again another prediction that has not been backed up by facts.

Did you notice that olive oil has become quite a bit more expensive recently?
Spain and Greece (the two main exporters of olive oil) have had exactly these problems due to unsually warm winters.

Did you notice that making shit up has become quite a bit more cheap recently?

Apr 21, 2016

I find it amazing that deniers constantly remember things that never happened...blah..blah...

It's like y'all are trying to be textbook studies into confirmation bias.

I find it unamazing that Chicken Littles constantly remember things that never happened...

I humbly suggest the problem is your stupidity. Because if you actually look at the history of climate science, nothing is true. If your predictions don't come true, then just make shit up and spew it out of where the sun don't shine and let the rest of the ignorant Chicken Littles give you 5s for it.
https://www.googl...fe_rd=cr


Bonobo, we don't care what you find unamazing, you the monkey remember ? no need to throw all your toys out the kot, we know you are too dumb to understand the science, and never get any good ratings from respectable scientists, now go be happy and swing those trees, we like handing you the bannanas.... ;)

Apr 21, 2016
but first, bring us another sockpuppet of yours to ridicule... its so much fun, don't ya think... :D

Apr 21, 2016
mmm interesting helo.. i'm beginning to see the trend too, this antigoracle guy, gblaze41,freeaim,benni,dogbert,bongstar all looks like sockpuppets of the same guy, and he always post the same kind of dribble, man this must be a boring tiring job for him, and clearly having useless contributions and record breaking low ratings... thanks for pointing it out i love reading your comments helo and can see why you are having so much fun, i now can see the trend as so many others does.


Apr 22, 2016
Don't forget me! We're a very special kind of sock puppet. Actually, it's more proper to say we're scumbags with puppet heads. Literally, not the insulting use of the word. There *is* such a thing you know. Anywho, Sugar Daddy gets his kicks that way. Fine with us. It's the only ass we ever get.

Apr 22, 2016
It's hard to separate trolls with sock puppets like antifashionable and nutters like bongtar because they all bleat the exact same chorus, same stupid lines, same stupid quotes, same stupid links...

The *essence* of that bunch is never coming up with anything original. They only connect the dots when it's random, working backward from a conclusion, as with niburu and such nonsense. You can write a 'bot that perfectly emulates anti. How do you tell if it is one person so stupid that they can't vary anything or come up even with an original insult, a troll with a bunch of simple puppets, or a 'bot?

They're all too far below the threshold of sentience to apply concepts that apply to sentience to between distinguish them. You can predict the insults anti will use with 90% confidence. On the face of it, that's a 'bot. You can't predict a real person's response that accurately. And I showed last week you can perfectly predict *when* he'll post as well.

Apr 22, 2016
The denier cult goon squad will always claim that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW or man made global warming) is something made up and ignore all the crap that is going on around them. They ignore the seriousness of the problem when everyone else knows that it's as bad as an asteroid heading for a direct strike on Earth, Instead of dealing with the issue, the denier goon squad cult, would rather enlist people like @antigoracle to do their evil bidding and dump crap on use like he does here. The denier cult. What a bunch of goons.


Apr 23, 2016
Oh yes, the modern soothsayer and his statistical crystal ball. All in the name of the AGWite GIGO collectors.

Apr 23, 2016
Aaaah so here

Oh yes, the modern soothsayer and his statistical crystal ball. All in the name of the AGWite GIGO collectors.

Aaah antigoracle sockpuppet still can't drive, where have you been hiding this sockpuppet antigoricle, nice to be able to poke fun with him again...Here's your bannana you earned it.... :D

Apr 23, 2016
Aaaah so here

Oh yes, the modern soothsayer and his statistical crystal ball. All in the name of the AGWite GIGO collectors.

Aaah antigoracle sockpuppet still can't drive, where have you been hiding this sockpuppet antigoricle, nice to be able to poke fun with him again...Here's your bannana you earned it.... :D


hilarious lol... !

Apr 23, 2016
What matters is not temperature nor humidity

Temepratures do matter.

Warmer winters mean more insects in the spring (which in turn means more issues with insect caused crop failures)
Warmer winters also mean that some plants start to sprout when there is still significant chance of frost (which can lead to losses of an entire crop)

Having a few warmer days may be nice for humans who can elect to go outside or inside depoending on the weather. Plants do not have that luxury. And when our food production takes a hit we will notice (with rising prives and increase of people fleeing drought stricken areas)

- aa_p
Bible has many stories about droughts, floods, hailstorm, crop losses and famine. And that's all BEFORE humans began the use of fossil fuels. The climate is always changing and severe global warming is a myth.
I suggest sending emails & writing news articles about how the Elites such as Al Gore are not cutting back on THEIR fossil fuel usage & why.

Apr 23, 2016


Warmer winters mean more insects in the spring (which in turn means more issues with insect caused crop failures)


To combat all those insects it is best to help preserve the birds and bats populations by feeding them through the winter so that they will be available to eat the insects when they emerge. Also, proper production and application of insecticides that don't kill birds and beneficial insects should be dealt with asap.

when our food production takes a hit we will notice (with rising prives and increase of people fleeing drought stricken areas)
- aa_p

But the prevention and annihilation of excessive human populations is the supreme goal of the EUGENICS Liberal/Progressives. This is why and what Socialist Europeans (and Americans) exist for...to promote and defend the murder of the newborn humans. Are you only concerned for existing populations but not for future generations?

Apr 23, 2016
@Benni
with an average score of 1 out of 14 you are heading straight for the Nobel prize for differential equations.
- Piss1 ( says Otto's sock puppet)
And ALL of YOUR comments are headed for the crapper, Otto/Pissypants

Apr 23, 2016
Too small to noticed over 40 years particularly as homes increasingly buffer against weather thanks to improved central heating and air cooling/conditioning. What matters is not temperature nor humidity "weather preference index" but extreme weather events (ones that break, bake, flood or incapacitate) that cannot be buffered against. I bet if you looked at where such events are more common or uncontrollable, you will also find where people panic most about climate change.
- Squirrel
I agree. Technology is great, isn't it. Break, bake, flood or incapacitating weather has been happening for billions of years, long before mammals ever existed. Humans cannot control weather or climate change...ONLY pollution and the methods of polluting the Earth.
Have you noticed that the CC maniacs NEVER implore the public to STOP POLLUTING? When was the last time anyone saw full page ads in newspapers and mage that APPEAL TO PEOPLE to not pollute? Any appeals on radio, tv, or the internet?

Apr 23, 2016
Don't forget me! We're a very special kind of sock puppet. Actually, it's more proper to say we're scumbags with puppet heads. Literally, not the insulting use of the word. There *is* such a thing you know. Anywho, Sugar Daddy gets his kicks that way. Fine with us. It's the only ass we ever get.
- antigoresockpuppet
Hey Otto/Stumpy
How you doing, cher. I am fine, me. You spell "anywho" wrong. It's ANYHOO. Now don't forget, cher. I will catch you later after I go to check on my missus.

Apr 23, 2016
Is he just? Since we know that cantthink actually is a pervert, does that suggest that obummersucker is cant's puppet?

Apr 23, 2016
Oh yes, and then there is this looser @obama_socks. What a complete wang lick. It's like he can't say the obvious, his back yard is warmer than it used to be and mowing the grass in the even more hot summer is not fun. Admit your wang licking of the right wing balls and state your dislike of anthropogenic global warming on your home life.

So ANYHOO, I guess you enjoy watching mankind fall to his eco-ignorance and implode from his environmental negligence. .

Apr 24, 2016
Oh yes, and then there is this looser @obama_socks. What a complete wang lick. It's like he can't say the obvious, his back yard is warmer than it used to be and mowing the grass in the even more hot summer is not fun. Admit your wang licking of the right wing balls and state your dislike of anthropogenic global warming on your home life.

So ANYHOO, I guess you enjoy watching mankind fall to his eco-ignorance and implode from his environmental. . .
- howhot2
LOL...did you like my imitation of Uncle Ira, cher? I thought it was pretty good.
Hmmm...what is a "wang lick", howhot? Is that something that you do on a regular basis? hooyii, as Uncle Ira would say.
Another hmmm...howhot, were you aware that summer is supposed to be hot? Or not?
:o>
howhot...IF I thought that AGW was the cause of ANY global warming, I would be one of the first to condemn it. As long as your god, Al Gore is still flying around in his LearJet and Obama on Air Force One, there ain't no AGW

Apr 24, 2016

- aa_p
Bible has many stories about droughts, floods, hailstorm, crop losses and famine. And that's all BEFORE humans began the use of fossil fuels. The climate is always changing and severe global warming is a myth.
I suggest sending emails & writing news articles about how the Elites such as Al Gore are not cutting back on THEIR fossil fuel usage & why.

Obama socks aka antigoracle has many baboon sockpuppets, all swinging through the tree branches today for our entertainment, pitty though monkeys can't understand the science eh... ;)

Apr 24, 2016
Too small to noticed over 40 years particularly as homes increasingly buffer against weather thanks to improved central heating and air cooling/conditioning. What matters is not temperature nor humidity "weather preference index" but extreme weather events (ones that break, bake, flood or incapacitate) that cannot be buffered against. I bet if you looked at where such events are more common or uncontrollable, you will also finacitating weather has been happening for billions of years, long before mammals ever existed. Humans cannot control weather or climate change...ONLY pollution and the methods of polluting the Earth.


obama and his socks really working hard for his bannanas today, first he pretends he doesn't have socks:

http://phys.org/n...ate.html
:D

Apr 24, 2016
Then he got caught red handed in his lie:

http://phys.org/n...ory.html

Apr 24, 2016
What's that Verkle?
Mr. Gore, it is not gloom and doom as you claim to get yourself rich off of others.
You were tring to tell a joke but you forgot the punch line? Well that is anoying isn't it? ;-)

Apr 24, 2016
Too small to noticed over 40 years particularly as homes increasingly buffer against weather thanks to improved central heating and air cooling/conditioning. What matters is not temperature nor humidity "weather preference index" but extreme weather events (ones that break, bake, flood or incapacitate) that cannot be buffered against. I bet if you looked at where such events are more common or uncontrollable, you will also finacitating weather has been happening for billions of years, long before mammals ever existed. Humans cannot control weather or climate change...ONLY pollution and the methods of polluting the Earth.


obama and his socks really working hard for his bannanas today, first he pretends he doesn't have socks:

http://phys.org/n...ate.html
:D
- helo manuelo
Nice volcano. Yup...bananamamas are good.
You wanna buy some socks? I can sell you some of Otto's socks really cheap.

Apr 25, 2016
naaa i'd rather stick to my own avatar, glad you like them bannanas ;) got plenty more i promise... ;)

Apr 25, 2016
bananananananananananas

Apr 26, 2016
From the spawn of satan, @obama_socks says;
howhot...IF I thought that AGW was the cause of ANY global warming, I would be one of the first to condemn it. As long as your god, Al Gore is still flying around in his LearJet and Obama on Air Force One, there ain't no AGW

Yeah, I expected your response to be something like that. Typical rightwing creeper.

Apr 26, 2016
I'll be dead long before the turn of the century so I'll never get to experience the down side of global warming, just the beautiful 80 degree days from April through October here in the Pacific Northwest. Dang, that's depressing. Maybe I'll go run my 40ft boat up and down the river a couple times and burn up a couple hundred gallons of gas, that ought to cheer me up!

you haven't noticed the benefits because it hasn't warmed in 20 years ...

Apr 26, 2016
o_pervert's position: the bible does not mention AGW so it is not happening.
It must be comforting to be so deeply deluded.
Religion is opium to the people.


actually AGW is the opiate for you ... it hasn't warmed in 20 years but you still keep praying to the sky hoping for disaster ...

Apr 26, 2016
o_pervert's position: the bible does not mention AGW so it is not happening.
It must be comforting to be so deeply deluded.
Religion is opium to the people.


actually AGW is the opiate for you ... it hasn't warmed in 20 years but you still keep praying to the sky hoping for disaster ...


That should I been a "1" instead not a "5".

Apr 26, 2016
What's that Verkle?
Mr. Gore, it is not gloom and doom as you claim to get yourself rich off of others.
You were tring to tell a joke but you forgot the punch line? Well that is anoying isn't it? ;-)

The fact that you fail to realize that you are the punchline would be even funnier if it weren't so sad.

Apr 26, 2016
more on antisciencgorilla monkey's lies, and then he tries to cover it up by telling another lie LOL:

http://phys.org/n...ate.html

monkey wants bananas :D

Apr 26, 2016
What's that Verkle?
Mr. Gore, it is not gloom and doom as you claim to get yourself rich off of others.
You were tring to tell a joke but you forgot the punch line? Well that is anoying isn't it? ;-)

The fact that you fail to realize that you are the punchline would be even funnier if it weren't so sad.


But what is really funny is the fact that antigoracle ala obama socks aka benni has been used as punching bags for more than a decade now, it doesn't get any funnier than this :D :D

Apr 26, 2016
... because it hasn't warmed in 20 years ...
@kaiserderden
except that it has... you can see it here
http://www.woodfo...60/trend


Apr 26, 2016
here's the full link, i'll send the bannanas LOL:

http://phys.org/n...ate.html

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more