Computer simulation shows climate mitigation schemes could result in increased water stress

August 4, 2015 by Bob Yirka report
Average total annual water deficit as a fraction of demand (county scale) for the historical period and the deficit difference from historical under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Credit: Mohamad I. Hejazi, PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421675112

(Phys.org)—A combined team of researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland has created a computer simulation meant to show the degree of water stress in the U.S. going forward into the future—it shows that under some conditions, water stress may actually increase due to mitigation efforts designed to slow global warming. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the team describes their simulation and why they believe it shows the dangers of not clearly thinking through strategies meant to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Scientists understand that increasing will mean an increase in evaporation, which in turn will likely mean more droughts, and perhaps permanent reductions in rainfall in some places. The thinking has been that if measures are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, slowing heating, that should slow increases in evaporation and easing water stress. But, that thinking may not always work, the researchers suggest. Their simulation shows that under some scenarios, reducing greenhouse gas emissions might actually make the water problem worse in some places.

The problem, is that one of the main scenarios for reducing involves growing bioenergy crops (such as corn or switchgrass) to replace coal fired power plants—a move that would certainly reduce the amount of carbon sent into the atmosphere. But, it would also mean diverting water to those crops, instead of using it for the immediate needs of an ever expanding human population. The result, the team says, would be increased water stress. One simulation showed water consumption increasing by 42 percent across the U.S. by the year 2100, a lot of which would go to growing . This would be an example, they claim, of green policies causing more than climate change itself.

The simulation was able to actually show water deficits across the country by county, which tended to show problem areas in the Plains and Midwest as we move into the middle and latter parts of this century. It, the team suggests, may offer critics of using bioenergy sources as a means for slowing , a strong argument.

Explore further: Coal renaissance is bad news for greenhouse gas mitigation efforts

More information: 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating, Mohamad I. Hejazi, PNAS, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1421675112

Abstract
There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

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18 comments

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AGreatWhopper
1.7 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2015
"But, it would also mean diverting water to those crops, instead of using it for the immediate needs of an ever expanding human population."

Once again the AGW hypocrites do nothing to address the elephant in the room- human vermin. Anyone that is serious about AGW- and they clearly are not- must address population. It's a classic example of how we have to change everything, they carry on as usual.
gkam
2.6 / 5 (10) Aug 04, 2015
I am waiting for AGreatWhopper to do away with himself, and do his part ridding us of those "human vermin".
TheGhostofOtto1923
3 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2015
I am waiting for AGreatWhopper to do away with himself, and do his part ridding us of those "human vermin".
Psychopaths are human vermin because they prey on others. They lie and cheat because they feel they are entitled to do so.

The best thing for the world would be for them to do away with themselves. They rarely do this however, believing that others are the cause of their failure.

So they will tend to do away with others, again because they feel they are entitled to do so.
gkam
2 / 5 (8) Aug 04, 2015
"Psychopaths are human vermin because they prey on others. They lie and cheat because they feel they are entitled to do so."
--------------------------------------

I'll tell AGreatWhopper what you think of him.

Meanwhile, look up "projection" in your psychology textbook.
TheGhostofOtto1923
3 / 5 (8) Aug 04, 2015
"When asked if he had ever committed a violent offense, a man serving time for theft answered, "No, but I once had to kill someone."

"A man serving a term for armed robbery replied to the testimony of an eyewitness, "He's lying. I wasn't there. I should have blown his fucking head off."

"From an interview with serial killer Elmer Wayne Henley:

Interviewer: "You make it out that you're the victim of a serial killer, but if you look at the record you're a serial killer."
Henley: "I'm not."
I: "You're not a serial killer?"
H: "I'm not a serial killer."
I: You're saying you're not a serial killer now, but you've serially killed."
H: "Well, yeah, that's semantics."

-This is how the psychopathic brain works.
They lie and cheat because they feel they are entitled to do so.
Gkam lied about his MS as he himself provided proof that he is a dropout. And evidence says he is a serial cheater because of the many jobs he has lost, as well as distain for HR depts.
denglish
2.2 / 5 (10) Aug 04, 2015
Reading the article, I am again not surprised to see the emphasis on anthropocentrism.

We think we are the cause of, and the solution to, something that the Earth is doing; been doing since it first assembled into a mighty big rock, billions of years before we appeared.

Luckily, the people described in this article seem to think a certain degree of caution is needed when charging in to save Mother Nature. There is still hope that we may be able to cure our anthropocentric urges before they kill ourselves and our planet.

On the subject of attacking the earth's population via AGW, check this out. The true hockey stick that AGWers want to remove; Global progress in total population, personal wealth and life expectancy:
http://patriotpos...on/36771
gkam
2 / 5 (8) Aug 04, 2015
"Gkam lied about his MS as he himself provided proof that he is a dropout. And evidence says he is a serial cheater because of the many jobs he has lost, as well as distain for HR depts."
-------------------------------

No,otto, you are the liar. Remember, you bragged about being a lurker, a sniper, one who uses phony names to play your "games"?

Your pathetic adolescent fixation on the person who made you reveal your own character makes it clear why you do not reveal your identity.
TheGhostofOtto1923
2.7 / 5 (7) Aug 04, 2015
"Gkam lied about his MS as he himself provided proof that he is a dropout. And evidence says he is a serial cheater because of the many jobs he has lost, as well as distain for HR depts."
-------------------------------

No,otto, you are the liar. Remember, you bragged about being a lurker, a sniper, one who uses phony names to play your "games"?

Your pathetic adolescent fixation on the person who made you reveal your own character makes it clear why you do not reveal your identity.
So send ira a cc of your degree. You already sent him proof that you are a dropout.

If not then its obvious you LIED about having an MS.

Didnt you?
why you do not reveal your identity
You have identified yourself as someone with an MS. Many times.

But then you provided proof that you are a dropout.

So you have further identified yourself as a LIAR.

Havent you?
denglish
2.3 / 5 (9) Aug 04, 2015
In the immortal words of Dr. McCoy, "He's dead, Otto"

You should stop replying to this person. For some reason, they can't keep up with the topics, so obfuscate with anarchistic thread derailments.

We all know that the person is an idiot. Time to get on with intelligent conversation.
jeffensley
2 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2015
Scientists understand that increasing global temperatures will mean an increase in evaporation, which in turn will likely mean more droughts


Someone please explain this logic. 71% of the Earth is covered by oceans. That percentage will only increase if melting continues. How is it that we seem to only fixate on the loss of water from land and not the increase in available moisture in the atmosphere\... which means more precipitation?
antigoracle
2.5 / 5 (8) Aug 04, 2015
The AGW Cult, we are "saving" the world, one stupid idea after another.
Trust us.
howhot2
3.6 / 5 (7) Aug 04, 2015
The AGW Cult, we are "saving" the world, one stupid idea after another.
Trust us.

I would trust your so called *AGW CULT* over *YOUR* fruity cake ideas anyday! And I would trust your so called *AGW CULT* over *YOUR* climate change denialism and ignorance any day of the week. Freakin Bush lover!

antigoracle
2.3 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2015
The AGW Cult, we are "saving" the world, one stupid idea after another.
Trust us.

I would trust your so called *AGW CULT* over *YOUR* fruity cake ideas anyday! And I would trust your so called *AGW CULT* over *YOUR* climate change denialism and ignorance any day of the week. Freakin Bush lover!


You got me... I do love the bush.
But, you are still dumber than the rock you crawled out from under.
EWH
1.5 / 5 (4) Aug 09, 2015
Water is important. So important that it's not an exaggeration to say that it is not only the basis for civilization but of life. There is plenty of freshwater in N. America, it is just badly distributed. With advanced experimental technology known as "pipes" it is possible to move water from one place to another, and with "pumps" it can even be made to flow uphill.
Maybe someone should do a Kickstarter or something.
Maggnus
4.3 / 5 (6) Aug 09, 2015
Scientists understand that increasing global temperatures will mean an increase in evaporation, which in turn will likely mean more droughts


Someone please explain this logic. 71% of the Earth is covered by oceans. That percentage will only increase if melting continues. How is it that we seem to only fixate on the loss of water from land and not the increase in available moisture in the atmosphere\... which means more precipitation?
Because moisture (not "water" per se) being lost from the land due to higher evaporation is not being replenished by higher precipitation rates. The problem is that the precipitation comes in a deluge, flooding the land but not soaking into the soil over a long enough period to replenish the moisture previously lost. The deluge then runs off, leaving higher temperatures to remove whatever moisture did get absorbed.

It's another feedback loop.
DavidW
3 / 5 (2) Aug 09, 2015
http://california.../la-zone

Letting it Sink In
Make rain beads fall over two different landscapes. By tracing the course of the beads, you'll see how urban areas can be designed to absorb more water and limit runoff.
Mike_Massen
2.6 / 5 (5) Aug 23, 2015
jeffensley asked
Someone please explain this logic. 71% of the Earth is covered by oceans. That percentage will only increase if melting continues. How is it that we seem to only fixate on the loss of water from land and not the increase in available moisture in the atmosphere\... which means more precipitation?
Strange question from someone who claims to be an "Environment Scientist" (ES) ofVirginia Tech - don't they teach precipitation is dependent on climate/weather shifts etc ?

The answer is obvious, the settled Physics of heat, its flow, transfer, radiative etc in conjunction with integration allows the chaotic local phenomena to be summed via statistical mechanics which confirm
https://en.wikipe..._forcing

but, it cannot predict reliably (yet) local regional shifts responding to global thermal change, Eg variables concerning sea/air currents etc.

Of course from Psychrometry which an ES studies you should be able to fill in the rest
howhot2
5 / 5 (3) Sep 04, 2015
The AGW Cult, we are "saving" the world, one stupid idea after another.
Trust us.

I would trust your so called *AGW CULT* over *YOUR* fruity cake ideas anyday! And I would trust your so called *AGW CULT* over *YOUR* climate change denialism and ignorance any day of the week. Freakin Bush lover!


You got me... I do love the bush.
But, you are still dumber than the rock you crawled out from under.


There is no greater sorrow then to recall our times of joy in wretchedness, and our binge on CO2.

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