Researchers can predict hurricane-related power outages (w/ Video)

Oct 20, 2009
This is Seth Guikema, assistant professor of geography and environmental engineering at the Johns Hopkins University. Credit: Will Kirk/Johns Hopkins University

(PhysOrg.com) -- Using data from Hurricane Katrina and four other destructive storms, researchers from Johns Hopkins and Texas A&M universities say they have found a way to accurately predict power outages in advance of a hurricane. Their approach provides estimates of how many outages will occur across a region as a hurricane is approaching.

The information provided by their computer models has the potential to save utilities substantial amounts of money, savings that can then be passed on to customers, the researchers say. In addition, appropriate crew levels and placements can help facilitate rapid restoration of power after the storm.

The study was a collaborative effort involving Seth Guikema, an assistant professor of geography and environmental engineering at Johns Hopkins and formerly of Texas A&M; Steven Quiring, an assistant professor of geography at Texas A&M; and Seung-Ryong Han, who was Guikema's doctoral student at Texas A&M and is now based at Korea University. Their work, which was funded by a Gulf Coast utility company that wishes to remain anonymous, is published in the current issue of the journal Risk Analysis.

This video is not supported by your browser at this time.

The research focused on two common challenges. When a hurricane is approaching, an electric power provider must decide how many repair crews to request from other utilities, a decision that may cost the provider millions of dollars. The utility also must decide where to locate these crews within its service areas to enable fast and efficient restoration of service after the hurricane ends. Having accurate estimates, prior to the storm's arrival, of how many outages will exist and where they will occur will allow utilities to better plan their crew requests and crew locations, the researchers say.

What makes the research team's computational approach unique and increases its accuracy, Guikema and Quiring say, is the combination of more detailed information about the storm, the area it is impacting and the of the area, together with more appropriate statistical models.

"If the power company overestimates, it has spent a lot of unnecessary money," Quiring said. "If it underestimates, the time needed to restore power can take several extra days or longer, which is unacceptable to them and the people they serve. So these companies need the best estimates possible, and we think this study can help them make the best possible informed decision."

In addition, more accurate models "provide a much better basis for preparing for restoring power after the storm," Guikema said, adding that "the goal is to restore power faster and save customers money."

In developing their computer model, the researchers looked at damage data from five hurricanes: Dennis (1995), Danny (1997), Georges (1998), Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005). In the areas studied, Ivan created 13,500 power outages; Katrina, more than 10,000; Dennis, about 4,800; Georges, 1,075; and Danny, 620.

For the worst of these storms, some customers were without power for up to 11 days. The research team collected information about the locations of outages in these past hurricanes, with an outage defined as permanent loss of power to a set of customers due to activation of a protective device in the power system.

The researchers also included information about the power system in each area (poles, transformers, etc.), hurricane wind speeds, wetness of the soil, long-term average precipitation, the land use, local topography and other related factors. This data was then used to train and validate a statistical regression model called a Generalized Additive Model, a particular form of model that can account for nonlinear relationships between the variables.

More information: The team's Risk Analysis study: www3.interscience.wiley.com/cg… /122542675/HTMLSTART

Source: Johns Hopkins University

Explore further: Fully automated: Thousands of blood samples every hour

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Dell Talking About 80-Core Chip Processor

Nov 20, 2008

(PhysOrg.com) -- This week Michael Dell (CEO of Dell) gave a slide presentation that included Intel´s recently developed 80-core processor. This isn't the first time that the 80-core chip was mentioned in ...

Taser unveils multi-shot stun gun

Jul 28, 2009

Manufacturers of the Taser stun gun on Monday unveiled a new handheld weapon on Monday which is capable of shocking three people without having to reload.

Recommended for you

First drone in Nevada test program crashes in demo

4 hours ago

A drone testing program in Nevada is off to a bumpy start after the first unmanned aircraft authorized to fly without Federal Aviation Administration supervision crashed during a ceremony in Boulder City.

Fully automated: Thousands of blood samples every hour

11 hours ago

Siemens is supplying automation technology for the longest and one of the most cutting-edge sample processing lines in any clinical laboratory. The line, or automation track, 200 meters long, in Marlborough, ...

Explainer: What is 4-D printing?

12 hours ago

Additive manufacturing – or 3D printing – is 30 years old this year. Today, it's found not just in industry but in households, as the price of 3D printers has fallen below US$1,000. Knowing you can p ...

First series production vehicle with software control

12 hours ago

Siemens has unveiled the first electric series production vehicle with the central electronics and software architecture RACE. This technology, developed in the research project of the same name, replaces ...

Amputee puts limb system through its paces

14 hours ago

"Amputee Makes History with APL's Modular Prosthetic Limb" is the headline from Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, where a team working on prosthetics observed a milestone when a double amputee showed ...

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.