1,000 years of climate data confirms Australia's warming

May 17, 2012 By Alvin Stone
1,000 years of climate data confirms Australia?s warming

In the first study of its kind in Australasia, scientists used 27 natural climate records to create the first large-scale temperature reconstruction for the region over the past 1,000 years.


Update: The research paper is withdrawn from publication following the identification of errors. American Meteorological Society is currently reviewing the data and results. For more details, please visit wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/08… w-finds-fatal-flaws/

The study led by researchers at the University of Melbourne, used a range of natural indicators including tree rings, corals and ice cores to study Australasian temperatures over the past millennium. They then compared these with climate model simulations.

Dr. Stephen Phipps, a researcher with UNSW’s Research Centre and the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science led the climate model simulation research. He said the results showed there were no other warm periods in the past 1,000 years that match the warming experienced in Australasia since 1950.

“Our study revealed that recent warming in a 1,000-year context is highly unusual and cannot be explained by natural factors alone, suggesting a strong influence of human-caused climate change in the Australasian region,” Dr. Phipps said.

The study published in the Journal of Climate will form the Australasian region’s contribution to the 5th IPCC climate change assessment report chapter on past climate.

Lead researcher, Dr. Joelle Gergis from the University of Melbourne said using  ‘palaeoclimate’ or natural records, such as tree rings, corals and ice cores, are fundamental in evaluating regional and global climate variability over centuries before direct temperature records started in 1910.

Dr. Gergis collated these natural records provided by decades of work by more than 30 researchers from Australia, New Zealand and around the world.

The reconstruction was developed using 27 natural climate records calculated in 3,000 different ways to ensure that the results were robust.

She said reconstructions of regional temperature not only provide a climate picture of the past but also a significant platform to reduce uncertainties associated with future climate variability.

The study is part of a global collaboration, PAGES, Past Global Changes Regional 2K initiative, which is working to reconstruct the past 2,000 years of climate across every region in the world in order to reduce uncertainties associated with future climate change projections.

Collaborators include the Climate Change Research Centre and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales where the climate modelling was conducted.

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Vendicar_Decarian
3.9 / 5 (11) May 17, 2012
No evidence of a little ice age in the Australia data, and little evidence of a medieval warming period either.

Those temperature variances were largely regional and mostly confined to the European region.

NotParker
2 / 5 (12) May 17, 2012
"The average reconstructed temperature anomaly in Australasia during A.D. 1238-1267, the warmest 30-year pre-instrumental period, is 0.09C (0.19C) below 1961-1990 levels."

Same temperature during the MWP. Or the MWP could have been warmer.

"In 94.5% of the 3000-member reconstruction ensemble, there are no other warm periods in the past 1,000 years that match or exceed post-1950 warming observed in Australasia. "

5.5% of reconstructions are definitely warmer during the MWP.

NotParker
1.7 / 5 (11) May 17, 2012
VD's favorite temperature standard is CRUTEM4.

The paper we are discussing says the MWP was somewhere between .1C warmer and .28C colder than the 1961 to 1990 average.

Take a look at the dark blue on CRUTEM4.

http://www.metoff...crutem4/

All of the dark blue is 5C to 10C COLDER than the 1961 to 1990 average.
All of the medium blue is 3C to 5C COLDER than the 1961 to 1990 average.

Most of Russia, a good chunk of the USA, the west coast of SA etc is close to being 5C COLDER than the MWP.

Even a large portion of Australia is blue.

Brrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MandoZink
5 / 5 (13) May 17, 2012
I get so damn mad when people keep presenting facts as data to support global warming. Every time I open my freezer there is more ice! Graphs of my freezer data continually show the AGW conspiracy alarmists are just wrong. They purposely look in the wrong place for their data. The day I bought my fridge there was little to no ice. It's been getting colder ever since.
gmurphy
4 / 5 (6) May 18, 2012
A lot of effort went into making sure the temperature data was calculated correctly: 'The reconstruction was developed using 27 natural climate records calculated in 3,000 different ways to ensure that the results were robust', it's a pity other branches of science don't invest the same effort in ensuring reliable results, I've read that clinical trials for medicines are notoriously difficult to reproduce and the additional commercial pressure makes the clinical results even more suspect, of course there's a noticeable lack of 'scepticism' about those results :|
kaasinees
3.3 / 5 (7) May 18, 2012
NotParker
1.8 / 5 (10) May 18, 2012
A lot of effort went into making sure the temperature data was calculated correctly: |


They even left out the data that contradicted their goal!

"Only records that were significantly (p<0.05) correlated with the
226 detrended instrumental target over the 19211990 period were selected for analysis."

Plus the really sad news: None of the data was from the Australian Continent.

http://i46.tinypi...pvn7.jpg
Vendicar_Decarian
4 / 5 (8) May 18, 2012
No evidence of a little ice age in the Australia data, and little evidence of a medieval warming period either.

Those temperature variances were largely regional and mostly confined to the European region.
Vendicar_Decarian
3.9 / 5 (7) May 19, 2012
What do December temperatures from 2010 showing cold weather in the North American winter have do do with April 2012 temperatures that were the warmest ever recorded for that month?

"Take a look at the dark blue on CRUTEM4." - Parker Tard

Poor ParkerTard. His mental Disease is terminal.
Vendicar_Decarian
3.9 / 5 (7) May 19, 2012
Certainly not the same temperature for the region since the MWP doesn't appear in their data.

Why? Because the MWP was largely regional.

"Same temperature during the MWP. Or the MWP could have been warmer." - ParkerTard

Poor ParkerTard. He gets all foncused when reality smacks him in the face.
ryggesogn2
1 / 5 (5) May 19, 2012
But people have been living there for over 50000 years.
So there is a partial data record for 2% of that time.
Extrapolation of emergent systems is difficult.
Vendicar_Decarian
3.7 / 5 (6) May 19, 2012
But 94.5% of the region was cooler during the MWP.

"5.5% of reconstructions are definitely warmer during the MWP." - ParketTard

Poor ParkerTard. He lives in a land of make believe that only admits 5.5% or reality. Possibly less.

His mental disease is terminal.

Vendicar_Decarian
3.7 / 5 (6) May 19, 2012
And over that 5,000 years, temperatures have changed by about 1'C

"But people have been living there for over 50000 years." - RyggTard

Over the next 90 they are anticipated to change by 2.5'C and if CO2 emissions are not halted, by 5'C or more. And those temps are for median CO2 sensitivity. High sensitivity produces temperature rises about twice as high.

That is the immediate effect. However, due to thermal inertia the long term warming will be twice that stated above.

History shows that 5'C * 2 would mean the extinction of most life on the planet, with the exception of tropical regions near the poles.
Vendicar_Decarian
3.7 / 5 (6) May 19, 2012
"Extrapolation of emergent systems is difficult." - RyggTard

Poor RyggTard. You don't even know what an "emergent system" is, or where the term is properly applied.

Are you here strictly to post non-science nonsense along with Libertarian ClapTrap propaganda?

I have never seen you post anything remotely related to science.
NotParker
1.8 / 5 (10) May 19, 2012
What do December temperatures from 2010


That map shows the difference between the 1961-1990 average temperatures for December and 2010's global December average.

It was up to 10C colder than it was was for 1961-1990.

It is getting colder. A lot colder.

And certainly much, much colder than during the global MWP.

NotParker
1.8 / 5 (10) May 19, 2012
But 94.5% of the region was cooler during the MWP.



You don't understand temperature reconstructions.

Reconstructions have error bars.

This reconstruction said the global MWP was -.09C plus/minus .19C than 1961-1990.

1) Therefore it could have been .1C warmer or -.28C colder or in between.

2) The MWP was global

3) Their data stopped around 1999 or 2000. Since that time the world has cooled off as HADCRUT4 shows.

4) Clearly as of today it is much, much cooler than the MWP.

5) And quite clearly, a temperature proxy is not as accurate as an actual thermometer.
Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (6) May 19, 2012
Yes, the comparison is for some random year compared to an average of 29 years.

What do December temperatures anomolies from 2010 showing cold weather in the North American winter have do do with April 2012 temperatures that were the warmest ever recorded for that month?

"That map shows the difference between the 1961-1990 average temperatures for December and 2010's global December average." - ParkerTard

Poor Parker Tard. His mental disease is terminal.
Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (6) May 19, 2012
And yet it doesn't show up in this study.

"The MWP was global" - ParkerTard

"Clearly as of today it is much, much cooler than the MWP." - Parkertard

Clearly the temperature records show otherwise.

https://docs.goog...it?pli=1

Poor ParkerTard. His mental disease is terminal.
Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (6) May 19, 2012
Now you are jabbering nonsense about weather, not climate.

But even so, you are still lying.

http://www.woodfo...99/trend

"Their data stopped around 1999 or 2000. Since that time the world has cooled off as HADCRUT4 shows. " - ParkerTard

Poor mentally ill ParkerTard. He is not complete unless he spends his days lying with every post.
NotParker
2 / 5 (8) May 20, 2012
The MWP was global


It certainly shows up in this paper.

Clearly visible in the graph at the top of the page.

For Australasia. Which isn't in the Northern Hemisphere.

NotParker
2 / 5 (8) May 20, 2012
What do December temperatures anomolies from 2010 showing cold weather in the North American winter


The anomalies are from the average December in 1961-1990.

They compare December to December.

10C colder in North America, Alaska, Russia.
Lurker2358
3.4 / 5 (5) May 21, 2012
ParkerTard:

If it's getting colder why is almost every year hotter than the previous?

http://www.wunder...num=2095
antialias_physorg
5 / 5 (3) May 21, 2012
it's a pity other branches of science don't invest the same effort in ensuring reliable results, I've read that clinical trials for medicines are notoriously difficult

Medical trials have a set standard they need to conform to. In the last phase you have thousands of people testing this stuff (a full test run of one drug through all four phases can cost up to 100 million dollars...and it takes usually 100 drugs to be tested for one to get to market. Though most tests are aborted by the first 2 phases. That a drug makes it to the last phase and gets aborted is rare. That's the whole point of doing this in phases.)

The usual standard of rigor is that you can show that with 95% probability your research is valid (that still means that 1 in 20
research results could be false, but usually the correlation is much higher than 95%, so the ratio of false positives is lower).

The 95% hurdle is historical, BTW.
NotParker
2 / 5 (4) May 21, 2012
Lurker2358: ParkerTard:


Have you ever thought about acting like an adult?

If it's getting colder why is almost every year hotter than the previous?


It isn't. Many states still have 1921 or 1934 as the hottest year ever.

https://sunshineh...ybar.gif

The US is cooling.

http://sunshineho...hink-so/

And Hansen is manipulating the data.

http://stevengodd...s-cheat/

Howhot
3 / 5 (4) May 21, 2012
ParkTard comments on article titled, "1,000 years of climate data confirms Australia's warming". Admit it Parknards, you have been duped into being stupid.
NotParker
2 / 5 (4) May 21, 2012
ParkTard comments on article titled, "1,000 years of climate data confirms Australia's warming". Admit it Parknards, you have been duped into being stupid.


If you weren't so childish you might look all the way to the top of thise article and note the proxies picked confirm there was a MWP.

The trouble is, they claim the proxies represent Australia. There were none on the actual continent of Australia. There were a couple in Tasmania and a couple of coral reefs off the coast, but there rest were thousands of miles away.

http://i46.tinypi...pvn7.jpg

I read through the actual paper. Did you?