New study maps impact of interprovincial trade on pollution-related mortality in China

In a new study published in the journal Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, researchers from Beijing Normal University bring together five state-of-the-art models from the fields of physics, economics, and epidemiology, tracing the intricate web of supply chains tied to fine particle pollution (PM_2.5) and their linked premature mortality across the nation.

This arrives against a backdrop of China's rapid economic expansion and urbanization, leading to high energy consumption and severe atmospheric pollution. Although these factors contribute to over a million premature deaths annually, significant mitigation efforts from the Chinese government have seen a gradual decline in PM_2.5 concentration. However, the journey to further pollution reduction presents notable technical and economic challenges, underscoring the importance of novel approaches.

Unpacking the complex dynamics of pollution redistribution, the study reveals that product trade plays a pivotal role in shifting pollution and its associated health burdens across sectors and regions. Particularly, consumption-based effects from sectors, such as food, light industry, equipment, construction, and services, caused significantly higher deaths than those from a production perspective, making up 63% of the national total.

Furthermore, interprovincial trade is a key player in this issue, with 25.7% of China's PM_2.5-related deaths attributable to such exchanges. Remarkably, the greatest transfer of air pollution occurs from the central and northern regions to the economically robust east coast provinces, where capital investment extensively involves equipment and construction products.

Highlights

• Anthropogenic PM_2.5 pollution deaths driven by trade within China were evaluated in great detail.
• Food, light industry, equipment, construction, and services caused 2–22 times more deaths from a supply chain perspective.
• Capital investment contributed 56% of the pollution deaths relocation among provinces.
• 66% of the pollution deaths transferred among regions originated from agricultural, nonmetal, metal, and energy sectors.

The insights from this study significantly broaden our understanding of pollution transfer through trade chains and provide an encompassing quantification of PM_2.5-related health burdens across regions and sectors. To secure future gains, the study advocates for increased focus on the sustainable development of high-quality industries, promoting a green consumption pattern, especially during the urbanization process, and implementing joint control actions across regions.

Future research should aim to hone the cost-effectiveness analysis of technology transfer and cooperation among regions and sectors to ensure better-coordinated pollution mitigation efforts.