Scientists push back against Harvard 'alien spacecraft' theory

November 7, 2018 by Kerry Sheridan
This image released by the European Southern Observatory on November 20, 2017 shows an artist's impression of the first interstellar object known to enter our solar system: Oumuamua

A scientific paper led by two researchers at Harvard University made a splash this week by claiming that a cigar-shaped rock zooming through our solar system may have been sent by aliens.

The researchers noted in a pre-print of the article that it was an "exotic scenario," but that "Oumuamua may be a fully operational probe sent intentionally to Earth vicinity by an alien civilization."

Oumuamua, the first interstellar object known to enter our solar system, accelerated faster away from the Sun than expected, hence the notion that some kind of artificial sail that runs on sunlight—known as a light sail—may have helped push it through space.

"Currently there is an unexplained phenomena, namely, the excess acceleration of Oumuamua, which we show may be explained by the force of radiation pressure from the sun," co-author and Harvard astrophysicist Shmuel Bialy told AFP via email Tuesday.

"However this requires the body to have a very large surface and be very thin, which is not encountered in nature."

Their suggestion of an alien force at work went viral.

But other astronomy experts aren't buying it.

"Like most scientists, I would love there to be convincing evidence of alien life, but this isn't it," said Alan Fitzsimmons, an astrophysicist at Queens University, Belfast.

"It has already been shown that its observed characteristics are consistent with a comet-like body ejected from another star system," he told AFP.

"And some of the arguments in this study are based on numbers with large uncertainties."

An image released by the European Space Agency on June 27, 2018 shows an artist's impression of Oumuamua
'Impossible to guess'

Katie Mack, a well-known astrophysicist at North Carolina State, also took issue with the alien hype.

"The thing you have to understand is: scientists are perfectly happy to publish an outlandish idea if it has even the tiniest sliver of a chance of not being wrong," she wrote on Twitter.

"But until every other possibility has been exhausted dozen times over, even the authors probably don't believe it."

Asked if he believed the hypothesis he put forward, Bialy told AFP:

"I wouldn't say I 'believe' it is sent by aliens, as I am a scientist, and not a believer, I rely on evidence to put forward possible physical explanation for observed phenomena."

The other co-author, Avi Loeb, chairman of Harvard's astronomy department, told NBC News humanity may never know more about the mysterious object, since it has traveled far away and isn't heading back.

"It is impossible to guess the purpose behind Oumuamua without more data," Loeb was quoted as saying.

Their paper was accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, and will appear on November 12.

Oumuamua, Hawaiian for "messenger" or "scout," was first viewed by telescopes in October 2017.

The alien rock is about 1,300 feet long (400 meters) long, and only about 130 feet wide.

Explore further: Could 'Oumuamua be an extraterrestrial solar sail?

Related Stories

Could 'Oumuamua be an extraterrestrial solar sail?

November 1, 2018

On October 19th, 2017, the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System-1 (Pan-STARRS-1) in Hawaii announced the first-ever detection of an interstellar asteroid, named 1I/2017 U1 (aka, "Oumuamua). In the months that ...

No alien 'signals' from cigar-shaped asteroid: researchers

December 14, 2017

No alien signals have been detected from an interstellar, cigar-shaped space rock discovered travelling through our Solar System in October, researchers listening for evidence of extraterrestrial technology said Thursday.

'Oumuamua one year later

October 22, 2018

One year ago this week astronomers discovered an unusual object moving through space not too far from the Earth's orbit. In just a few days they realized it could not be a normal asteroid or comet – its path showed that ...

The origins of the cigar-shaped alien 'asteroid' 'Oumuamua

January 5, 2018

One of the highlights of 2017 was the discovery of the first object in our solar system that definitely came from somewhere else. At first we thought it was a comet, then an asteroid, and now the International Astronomical ...

Recommended for you

How to drive a robot on Mars

November 12, 2018

Some 78 million miles (126 million kilometers) from Earth, alone on the immense and frigid Red Planet, a robot the size of a small 4x4 wakes up just after sunrise. And just as it has every day for the past six years, it awaits ...

Aging a flock of stars in the Wild Duck Cluster

November 8, 2018

Do star clusters harbor many generations of stars or just one? Scientists have long searched for an answer and, thanks to the University of Arizona's MMT telescope, found one in the Wild Duck Cluster, where stars spin at ...

104 comments

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

Thorium Boy
1.6 / 5 (13) Nov 07, 2018
Years ago, this would have forever tainted someone's career. How low the science and liberal academia have sunk.
Da Schneib
4.2 / 5 (14) Nov 07, 2018
The emperor isn't wearing any clothes. This probably shouldn't have made any journal of record. Nor should it have been hyped by physorg.
nrauhauser
3.4 / 5 (11) Nov 07, 2018
This story is not being hyped by physorg, the media made a total shitshow out of this belated paper, and this is the first quality debunk I have seen.
JaxPavan
3.6 / 5 (7) Nov 07, 2018
Read "Gravity Assist Engine for Propulsion" by Arne Bergstrom if you want a better theory of propulsion than a solar sail, particularly for an oblong spinning body. Basically, uses a three body tidal force to alter speed and direction, without chemical propellant or off-gassing.
JaxPavan
3.2 / 5 (10) Nov 07, 2018
The odd thing about oumuamua is that it did a "NASA style" gravity-assist (nearly optimal 60 degrees angle of approach in relation to the sun's relative direction of motion which optimizes the velocity boost of the gravity-assist "slingshot").

A deliberate "NASA style" gravity-assist would also approach as close as it could to the sun to maximize the amount of gravitational potential energy, which it arguably did.

But, it also popped back up through the planetary orbital planes right at the orbital distance of an interesting blue planet covered in water, and timed it just as it was orbiting by.

That is one smart, curious asteroid.
fezline
2.8 / 5 (9) Nov 07, 2018
Ok so everyone is going along with what this girl is saying but she provides no data or explanation to back up her claim. All I see is mocking due to the fact that this is such a controversial claim and people just can't possibly believe that something like this might have actually happened. I am reasonably certain the paper indicated the following: "Oumuamua deviates from a trajectory that is solely dictated by the Sun's gravity. This could have been the result of cometary outgassing, but there is no evidence for a cometary tail around it. Moreover, comets change the period of their spin and no such change was detected for Oumuamua" So yeah I see nothing but opinion and arrogance countering that statement and zero evidence or calculated rebuttal... This lady is a hypocrite... she speaks of being a scientist but she religiously holds on to convention which is not the marker of a scientist. She is a dogmatist, not a scientist.
Old_C_Code
3.4 / 5 (5) Nov 07, 2018
"NASA style" gravity-assist (nearly optimal 60 degrees angle of approach in relation to the sun's relative direction of motion which optimizes the velocity boost of the gravity-assist "slingshot").


This is not odd, it's totally random and reasonable.
fezline
2.8 / 5 (11) Nov 07, 2018
Years ago, this would have forever tainted someone's career. How low the science and liberal academia have sunk.

So you think it's bad that people aren't blacklisted and shamed for making a daring claim about something? Hmm... well I hope you never discover anything that flies in the face of conventional wisdom because you will probably decide that your career should be forever tainted and take up a job bagging groceries.
fezline
2 / 5 (8) Nov 07, 2018
"NASA style" gravity-assist (nearly optimal 60 degrees angle of approach in relation to the sun's relative direction of motion which optimizes the velocity boost of the gravity-assist "slingshot").


This is not odd, it's totally random and reasonable.


It's also totally random and reasonable (theoretically based on the quantum wave function of a person) to see a person quantum tunnel through a wall... But what do you think the probability of that happening is?
jonesdave
3.3 / 5 (12) Nov 07, 2018
Ok so everyone is going along with what this girl is saying................She is a dogmatist, not a scientist.


No, this girl is Assistant Professor of Physics at North Carolina State University. What are your qualifications, bozo?
cantdrive85
2.5 / 5 (11) Nov 07, 2018
Years ago, this would have forever tainted someone's career. How low the science and liberal academia have sunk.

When the maths guesswork fails, blame it on something "dark". Or aliens. LOL!
jonesdave
2.5 / 5 (8) Nov 07, 2018
Years ago, this would have forever tainted someone's career. How low the science and liberal academia have sunk.

When the maths guesswork fails, blame it on something "dark". Or aliens. LOL!


Apart from being crap at maths, what is your problem with it? Chip on shoulder about your academic failures, I suspect.
Bryan_Kelly
3 / 5 (4) Nov 07, 2018
It seems to behave like a light pump using radiation pressure propulsion, as opposed to a light sail. Instead of outgassing, it may be gaining and losing mass-equivalent energy in the form of absorbed and emitted light, possibly flowing through hydrogen or helium trapped within.

This might happen naturally, but the seemingly intelligent gravity-assist behavior described in the comments above diminishes the "outlandish" remark, in my opinion.

In any case, it's good to see some imagination happening in at least some of these staid institutions.
fourinfinities
3.4 / 5 (9) Nov 07, 2018
"Oumuamu...accelerated faster away from the Sun than expected."

No it didn't. It decelerated away from the Sun slower than expected. I may be mincing words, but such phrasing smells of hype.

Doug_Nightmare
3.9 / 5 (7) Nov 07, 2018
Extraordinary assertions require extraordinary evidence.
wailuku1943
4.4 / 5 (7) Nov 07, 2018
Finding the paper and reading it is trivially easy. I suggest that several of the posters do just that.

And only then talk about it.
rrwillsj
3 / 5 (6) Nov 07, 2018
Thank you Four and Doug for contributing some commonsense to this cargocult hysteria.
MrBojangles
4.3 / 5 (6) Nov 07, 2018
It's also totally random and reasonable (theoretically based on the quantum wave function of a person) to see a person quantum tunnel through a wall... But what do you think the probability of that happening is?


Not unless you totally warp the meaning of reasonable. It will never happen.

On paper it's possible a single human being will be struck by lighting 10,000 times in the same spot on Earth, in reality it's a physical impossibility, we only have to entertain the idea because it's "statistically possible."
JaxPavan
2.1 / 5 (7) Nov 07, 2018
One big piece of evidence is: where is it headed? In particular, is it headed for any relatively nearby star at close to a 60 degree angle relative to that star's direction of motion, thus lining up another NASA style gravity assist?
JaxPavan
2 / 5 (4) Nov 07, 2018
I got one star here for posting a reference to a peer reviewed paper.

Gravity-Assist Engine for Space Propulsion

www.scribd.com/book/306456911

Check it out.
JaxPavan
1.7 / 5 (6) Nov 07, 2018
At the end of the day, or the century or maybe the next million years, the overarching failure here is that future generations will look back on this first thing from outside the solar system that passed nearby and no civilization on earth scrambled to build a chemical rocket to go check it out. Because, whether or not it is a spaceship or an asteroid, the geological opportunity alone is almost priceless considering the cost of building our own probe(s) to go out into the galactic medium to find something like that in the future.
Ultron
1.6 / 5 (7) Nov 07, 2018
scientists are perfectly happy to publish an outlandish idea if it has even the tiniest sliver of a chance of not being wrong," she wrote on Twitter.

Actually thats not true. Majority of professional scientists are morons who would never do that, because there fear the decrease of their professional "scientific" reputation like plague.
24volts
1 / 5 (1) Nov 07, 2018
They could barely even see the thing. If it was artificial and had some sort of drive how would we even be able to tell if it didn't show up in a telescope? It's gone now anyway. People can speculate forever about it and won't ever make any difference other than waste time.
jonesdave
3.2 / 5 (9) Nov 07, 2018
Majority of professional scientists are morons....


Nope. I think you'll find that you are the moron.
T_ Gutierrez
1 / 5 (4) Nov 07, 2018
The object was reported to have a very weak thermal emission spectrum. In September and October 2017, upper-limit X-class solar flares generated extremely fast coronal mass ejections.

Coronal mass ejections may possibly induce the coalescence of a massive solid object or rupture a larger asteroid. A composition similar to carbonaceous chondrites or ureilites can be inferred from thermal emission/reflectivity, and ureilites are known to have fragmentation aspect ratios similar to that inferred for Oumuamua, being highly shocked and dominated by compression melt and granular mosaicism.

Collisions between multiple asteroid bodies within the <0.25 AU domain from which Oumuamua was observed may also be perturbed by CME shocks due to solar flare nonequilibrium emission and CME shock interaction with interplanetary dust and small asteroids during the months Oumuamua was observed.

T_ Gutierrez
1 / 5 (4) Nov 07, 2018
Error toward high confidence from singlet observations without accounting for the nonstationarity of initial data upon the implementation of a hitherto impossible observational resolution would also ignore dynamic, multi-parameter space weather conditions at each observation. Average photon and plasma pressure in unknown magnetic fields with omitted solar wind speed given all possible scenarios for changes in velocity, acceleration of rotation rate, and path statistics may yield multiple sets of mutually-exclusive evidence.
Solar wind speed generally exceeds 400 km/s, and with adequate pressure and density ramping, can accelerate inertial, passive objects well above the velocity observed for Oumuamua. Coronal mass ejections from major X- and M-class solar flare activity were peaking from middle August to late October 2017, well-constraining assumptions for the origin of Oumuamua. https://www.nasa....om-space
T_ Gutierrez
1 / 5 (5) Nov 07, 2018
One big piece of evidence is: where is it headed? In particular, is it headed for any relatively nearby star at close to a 60 degree angle relative to that star's direction of motion, thus lining up another NASA style gravity assist?

What would happen to an ordinary shocked asteroid perturbed during a recent collision with another similar body, given passive coincidence for this very common trajectory in emergent systems of all scales?
Oumuamua is not an interstellar object.
JaxPavan
3.9 / 5 (7) Nov 07, 2018
Why are there trolls on a science comment section? Go back to politics.
T_ Gutierrez
1 / 5 (4) Nov 07, 2018
One big piece of evidence is: where is it headed? In particular, is it headed for any relatively nearby star at close to a 60 degree angle relative to that star's direction of motion, thus lining up another NASA style gravity assist?

2/3 is hardly evidence of aliens or intelligence; this limited angular range in many self-organizing systems is expected to emerge upon collisions with subsequent random small perturbations. Why wouldn't nature be lazy?
JaxPavan
3.3 / 5 (6) Nov 07, 2018
That is nonsense. Given your decent vocabulary, I conclude you are a troll.
torbjorn_b_g_larsson
3.7 / 5 (3) Nov 07, 2018
Much as I like Abraham Loeb papers, he follows the old physicist tradition of spelling out every possible hypothesis not rejected by data. The troll claims are of course wrong, this is common in some areas of science, in others not. To be fair, the hypothesis had other support in the paper since it could explain a - likely just going away - tension between estimates and observations of how dense this population of objects are.

More eye opening is that the earlier paper that discussed possible tensions - Oumuamu rotates faster than other comets, should be shredded - also was solved by the unstated implication of a metal object and went unnoticed by the click bait media. However again, this is just another observationally weak tension.
torbjorn_b_g_larsson
4.4 / 5 (7) Nov 07, 2018
Some As to Qs:

it did a "NASA style" gravity-assist


A hyperbolic comet will always do a gravity assist whether accelerating or decelerating; exogenous such are most likely to come in at 60 deg from the MW disk since our system is (randomly) tilted that way. So just expected outcome of random visitor.

build a chemical rocket to go check it out


Not possible given the short time; not necessary given that astronomers with better coverage expect to eventually be able to see them passing our system every year (IIRC the expected frequency).
guptm
1 / 5 (4) Nov 07, 2018
Why didn't the editor-in-chief return the manuscript at the outset even before the starting peer-review process? I now suspect the credibility of arXiv, which seems to be full of pseudoscience papers.

Editors of reputed journals allow to publish anything for money for fame or in the name of open access. What a pity!

Please rename the journal from "Astrophysical Journal Letters" to "Astrological Journal Letters".
guptm
1 / 5 (5) Nov 07, 2018
This is what happens when you appoint fake professors. There is a need for a rigorous testing system of all applicants for professor positions for scientific understanding, temperament regardless of the knowledge they possess to weed out pseudo-scientists.

At the moment, just provide 3 famous referees and a few papers in AJL/ApJ, and one can become a professor. They have diluted the system completely!
rgw
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 07, 2018
As always many scientists (plus pundit commentators), like politicians, have a very limited sense of humor. If nothing else this flight of space alien imagination is a clever tribute to Arthur C Clarke.
somefingguy
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 07, 2018
For all you muppets who didn't actually read the paper aside from the clickbait, out of context sentence used by clickbait media:
"Known Solar System objects, like asteroids and comets have mass-to-area ratios orders of magnitude larger than our
estimate for 'Oumuamua. If radiation pressure is the accelerating force, then 'Oumuamua represents a new class of thin interstellar material, either produced naturally,through a yet unknown process in the ISM or in proto-planetary disks, or of an artificial origin. Considering an artificial origin, one possibility is that 'Oumuamua is a lightsail, floating in interstellar space as a debris from an advanced technological equipment (Loeb 2018). Lightsails with similar dimensions have been designed and constructed by our own civilization, including the IKAROS project and the Starshot Initiative. The lightsail technology might be abundantly used for transportation of cargos between planets (Guillochon & Loeb 2015) or between stars.
somefingguy
3 / 5 (6) Nov 07, 2018
cont'd
In the former case, dynamical ejection from a planetary System could result in space debris of equipment that is not operational any more 3 (Loeb 2018), and is floating at the characteristic speed of stars relative to each other in the Solar neighborhood. This would account for the various anomalies of 'Oumuamua, such as the unusual geometry inferred from its lightcurve (Meech et al. 2017; Fraser et al. 2018; Drahus et al. 2018; Belton et al. 2018), its low thermal emission, suggesting high reflectivity (Trilling et al. 2018), and its deviation from a Keplerian orbit (Micheli et al. 2018) without any sign of a cometary tail (Meech et al. 2017; Knight et al. 2017; Jewitt et al. 2017; Ye et al. 2017; Fitzsimmons et al. 2017) or spin-up torques (Rafikov 2018).
HTK
1 / 5 (1) Nov 07, 2018
They didn't calculate the rotational effect on the pull of the gravity as the modelling just bases on a single point mass...
somefingguy
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 07, 2018
cont'd
Although 'Oumuamua has a red surface color,similar to organic-rich surfaces of Solar-System comets and D-type asteroids (Meech et al. 2017), this does not contradict the artificial scenario, since irrespective of the object's composition, as it travels through the ISM its surface will be covered by a layer of interstellar dust, which is itself composed of organic-rich materials (Draine 2003). Alternatively, a more exotic scenario is that 'Oumuamua may be a fully operational probe sent intentionally to Earth vicinity by an alien civilization. BasedonthePAN-STARRS1 survey characteristics, and assuming natural origins following random trajectories, Do et al. (2018) derived that the interstellar number density of 'Oumuamua-like objects should be extremely high,∼2×1015 pc−3,equivalentto∼1015 ejected planetisimals per star, and a factor of 100 to 108 larger than predicted by theoretical models (Moro-Martin et al. 2009).
somefingguy
2 / 5 (4) Nov 07, 2018
cont'd

This discrepancy is readily solved if 'Oumuamua does not follow a random trajectory but is rather a targeted probe. Interestingly, 'Oumuamua's entry velocity is found to be extremely close to the velocity of the Local Standard of Rest, in a kinematic region that is occupied by less than 1 to 500 stars (Mamajek 2017)."

No one said that this is definitively a probe; it is even specified TWICE in the paper that it is highly unlikely. It was just an addition to a technical paper; an interpretation of the 'why' accompanying the well described 'how'.

Why didn't the editor-in-chief return the manuscript at the outset even before the starting peer-review process? I now suspect the credibility of arXiv, which seems to be full of pseudoscience papers.


You're so fucking stupid, it's making my head spin. You clearly didn't read the paper itself, just the headline and now think your strong opinion matters.
T_ Gutierrez
1 / 5 (3) Nov 07, 2018
There were 27 M-class and 4 X-class flares with CMEs in September 2017 alone, with activity extending into Oct. CMEs must be excluded from any correlation to rotational curve and acceleration of object. First observation of Oumuamua occurred Oct.14-17, ~0.16 AU to Earth. Oumuamua reached perihelion at 0.26 AU September 9, 2017. Solar wins speed was at rare critical levels: https://www.space...9/aurora

"We have checked how the peak-to-peak amplitude of the light curve depends on the axial ratio for
different orientations of the spin pole. [... .] Even an enormous amplitude of the light curve does not necessarily mean a huge axial ratio. We found that to generate a 2.5-mag amplitude, an axial ratio can be as low as 4.63, inconsistent with the recently published values. Large axial ratios were reported with the assumption that the brightness variation comes purely from cross-section changes." https://arxiv.org...0437.pdf
T_ Gutierrez
1 / 5 (3) Nov 07, 2018
Some As to Qs:

it did a "NASA style" gravity-assist


A hyperbolic comet will always do a gravity assist whether accelerating or decelerating; exogenous such are most likely to come in at 60 deg from the MW disk since our system is (randomly) tilted that way. So just expected outcome of random visitor.

build a chemical rocket to go check it out


Not possible given the short time; not necessary given that astronomers with better coverage expect to eventually be able to see them passing our system every year (IIRC the expected frequency).


"Moreover, for aspect angles smaller than 60° it is virtually impossible to obtain a peak-to-peak
amplitude consistent with 1I/'Oumuamua in spite of blowing up the axial ratio to abnormal values.
Thus we conclude that aspect angle must be larger than 60°" https://arxiv.org...0437.pdf
T_ Gutierrez
1 / 5 (3) Nov 07, 2018
I can't believe Oumuamua ISN'T a Solar System C-type asteroid observed with naive attention to controls and possible local dynamics explaining its light curve. Look here: https://www.space.../09/xray
...and here: https://www.space...9/aurora
Mark Thomas
2.3 / 5 (3) Nov 08, 2018
3 quick reasons against Oumuamua being a probe.

1. Light sails are designed to maximize thrust by maximizing area, not aspect ratio. Show me one light sail 10 times as long as wide. Sounds like a poor design, plus the amount of total area is very low for an interstellar mission.

2. It also doesn't make much sense that aliens would be smart enough to redirect a probe around the sun without passing by at least one of the more interesting planets, like Earth. Their probe could have passed a lot closer than 15 million miles and taken some some nice pictures and other measurements for the home audience.

3. Wikipedia's source say its incoming and outgoing velocity is 26.33 km/s or less than 60,000 mph. Pathetic for an interstellar probe. Even a well planned probe to Alpha Centauri would take more than 20,000 years at that velocity and we don't see any star nearly that close in the direction it came from.

https://en.wikipe...Oumuamua
JaxPavan
3 / 5 (4) Nov 08, 2018
@Torbjorn B G Larsson

Thank you for your thoughts:

"A hyperbolic comet will always do a gravity assist whether accelerating or decelerating; exogenous such are most likely to come in at 60 deg from the MW disk since our system is (randomly) tilted that way."

One of us is misreading the gravity assist angle? My understanding is that a solar gravity assist reaches maximum gain in momentum at 60 degrees relative to the velocity vector of the sun, not the tilt of the planets. . . The way I read oumuamua kinemetrics was that it was sixty something degrees relative to the sun's velocity vector, not the planetary orbital plane(s). That makes either you or I exactly wrong depending on those kinemetrics.

As for the expected probability of future interstellar visitors, I hope you are right, and, if it is a rock perhaps there is a decent statistical argument to make from one data point, however uncertain. If it is an alien probe, not so much.
Mark Thomas
3.9 / 5 (7) Nov 08, 2018
Don't worry about this little mystery. In about 250 years it will still only be roughly 1,400 AU away. By then maybe a Constitution-class starship will drag it back with a tractor beam (or strong rope) for closer examination. :-)
JaxPavan
3 / 5 (4) Nov 08, 2018
@Mark Thomas

Nice. Yes. If it's a rock, sure. If it's an alien spacecraft then that informs us about what future interstellar travel probably looks like, from speeds that are only multiples of voyager's speed, to time frames that are hundreds of thousands of years, as the spacecraft does a voyager type billiard walk of gravity assists between stars, using angular momentum and tidal forces to make course adjustments rather than chemical fuel. That's a bleak and tedious galactic survey unless one is biologically immortal or AI.

Incidentally, the best place to meet all the space farers in the Milky Way is Sagittarius A*. Everyone who is anyone will want to check out the super massive place hole at the center.

JaxPavan
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
"Supermassive black hole" —-Darn spell checker.

Everyone who is anyone will want to check out the supermassive black hole at the center.
Mark Thomas
3.4 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
JaxPavan, I believe we have to see beyond our current limitations. A good working fusion engine might get us up to at least a few percent of the speed of light. A decent antimatter induced micro-fission/fusion engine might get a good bit more. As a wild guess, we should be thinking of roughly 10% the speed of light before launching something, otherwise, it will just get passed up by something faster. Roughly 11,000 times faster than Oumuamua.

So to be clear, I think it is just too darn slow to be an alien probe. We will be able to do better than this in the relatively near future.

JaxPavan
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
@Mark Thomas

True. But, what do we know of maintaining a functioning fission-plant and working electronics and engines and propellant storage for at least decades in an environment of enhanced cosmic rays, etc beyond the protective heliosphere? For example, what is all that red dust on the outer asteroids? Spallation of iron atoms that the heliosphere keeps out? What happens at 0.1C?

It's also possible that a designated galactic survey probe might need to be slow(er) in order to make a billiard walk of voyager-style gravity-assists between stars. (The gravity assists won't work effectively if its speed is orders of magnitude greater than the relative speeds of the stellar gravity wells.) Maybe transhumans and AI wouldn't care?

Basically I am suggesting the possibility that the mechanics of making a galactic survey probe, that keeps on ticking with galaxy spanning longevity and range, might have to be slower than a single shot to a nearby star.
JaxPavan
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
The tortoise might be faster than a hare that needs to build new legs at each destination.
JaxPavan
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
Is it so fast we couldn't possibly catch up to it with a two year head start, or is it so slow that it couldn't be a real probe from any intelligent life anywhere? I suppose there's a grey area of neither in between where both are false. But, as conclusions, the two are mutually exclusive.
rrwillsj
3 / 5 (4) Nov 08, 2018
Jax, I cannot agree with your comment that we should expect to find aliens any where near the Sagittarius A nucleus of our galaxy. The level of technology it would take to even approach within a thousand parsecs would be several magnitudes beyond anything we could even dream of achieving.

How would our observation ability even decipher alien vessels from all the chaotic energies raging in there?

No, if there are any alien spacefarers out there? And you all know I dismiss the premise of any aliens, especially space travelers as wishful cargocult fabulism.

Look much closer to home. Specifically the Hyades, Pleiades and Coma Clusters. All within a few hundred parsecs of our Solar System.

Mostly young stars, still clumping together their debris disks into planets.

We lack the sophisticated tools to detect inhabited worlds at any distance. Especially if they have developed energy-efficient shielded forms of communication.
- cont'd -
rrwillsj
1 / 5 (2) Nov 08, 2018
- cont'd -

However, if tech-savvy aliens are in the market for resources such as metals? Those three clusters are an "attractive nuisance".

Before the planets get sorted out & organized. All those rocks & icebergs stampeding about would be a lot easier & cheaper to access then attempting to mine at the bottom of planetary gravity-wells.

It is those stellar-scale industrial processes & high-powered communications needed to be received through all the milling crap of gravel. sleet & fumes that we should be concentrating on.

Monitoring & observing those star groups would be our best opportunity to actually detecting interstellar societies.

However, it is a sobering realization, that over five billion years? Only one rocky world our of a dozen in the Solar System has proven to sustain life.

Out of dozens of proto-intelligent species that have shared this Earth? Only Hominadae have taken the step forward to tool-making & using fire.
Mark Thomas
3.9 / 5 (7) Nov 08, 2018
you all know I dismiss the premise of any aliens


In your mind's eye, look at the Milky Way as an outsider might. You will notice an emerging species of aliens on the third planet of solar system about half way between the galactic center and outermost spiral arm. So there is at least one group of somewhat intelligent aliens in the Milky Way. Might there be more? Logically, if you find a single fish in a vast ocean that you are just beginning to explore, the odds strongly favor there being more fish over there being no more. Our universe is so incredibly vast that the smart money is on there being plenty of aliens, it is just a question as to how far away they are.

It would be bizarre in the extreme that only one planet in the entire cosmos would have life given there are probably countless more with similar or even superior conditions for life.
JaxPavan
2 / 5 (4) Nov 08, 2018
@rrwillsj

I wrote everyone would want to observe it, not dive into it, and do so from whatever distance is feasible given the technology and the conditions, both are unknown right now. I'm not exactly sure about your distance estimate. Heck, we don't even know if we can survive cosmic rays outside the heliosphere! So, yeah, anything is possible! Just back it off to the best spot to send probes, etc, etc.

As the single most interesting place the galaxy that most assuredly has no galactic duplicate, it becomes the logical diplomatic center as well. Thus intelligent life will go there with the intent to observe it as well as to signal, find and meet other spacefaring life.
JaxPavan
2 / 5 (4) Nov 08, 2018
Two things I have learned since the 70's when scientists, the media and politicians all told me to wait for fusion power to solve the energy crisis and flying cars for me to have fun.

1) I'm still waiting for both and they're still plugging both every couple years.

2) Computers and modern pharmaceutical were invented instead.

So, while the establishment was effectively feeding us a de facto "don't worry the future is assured" propaganda meme that helped remove the public from future research and development decision making, the policymakers had not much clue what technology would really bring. . .
JaxPavan
2 / 5 (4) Nov 08, 2018
@Mark Thomas

Thus, my biggest problem with your way of thinking about the problem is that it is more of the same: wait for fusion power or antimatter or whatever to solve our problems because everything else is a waste. It keeps the people out of policy, sure, but mostly it's unwise historically.

Here is how I would liken it: imagine if the Romans had sat around and miraculously correctly speculated that in 2000 years they would have internal combustion engines and concrete for roads and the then just said why bother riding horses or building a labor intensive road network?

Most likely they would even get it wrong, imagining flying horses or something, instead.
JaxPavan
2.2 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
@Mark Thomas

Folks have been conditioned to expect space travel to look like something in particular: fractional light speed travel or maybe wormholes or warp drives. And it's not just the social programming and publicity that keeps people nodding their heads in unison over fusion power for 50 straight years of failure.

The last part of it has to do with scope of human endeavor:
JaxPavan
2.2 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
Mankind has never planned and completed any project that took much more time than a human lifespan to achieve any benefit whatsoever.

Pyramids were right around that time limit.

Interstate highway system had immediate benefits from each section as it was opened. The Great Wall of China has immediate benefits from each section, both for local protection and troop quarters, etc.

To put it another way, no civilization in history has ever said, "hey, we can build s bridge across that body of water, but it is so far it will take 200 years with our current technology to complete, at which point our society will become an even wealthier trade hub. . .Let's get to it." Never happened.
JaxPavan
2.2 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
Nothing today makes the drawing board without somewhat wishful technological advances that bring trip times down to say, less than a hundred years to nearby stars. Going further out, folks have an almost visceral reaction to the proposition that speeds that are multiples of voyager may be the only way to efficiently visit multiple star systems with one craft.

Mankind either needs to extend its planning cycle or its lifespan.
Cusco
3.9 / 5 (7) Nov 08, 2018
@JaxPavan

Mankind has never planned and completed any project that took much more time than a human lifespan to achieve any benefit whatsoever.


I can walk you around many cathedrals and other temples that took centuries to build.
Da Schneib
3.4 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
Just so everybody knows, @Jax is a YEC. https://phys.org/...big.html

See the post on the changing speed of light. First post on that thread by that user. This is standard YEC doctrine.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.3 / 5 (6) Nov 08, 2018
3 quick reasons against Oumuamua being a probe.

2. It also doesn't make much sense that aliens would be smart enough to redirect a probe around the sun without passing by at least one of the more interesting planets, like Earth. Their probe could have passed a lot closer than 15 million miles and taken some some nice pictures and other measurements for the home audience.

3. Wikipedia's source say its incoming and outgoing velocity is 26.33 km/s or less than 60,000 mph. Pathetic for an interstellar probe. Even a well planned probe to Alpha Centauri would take more than 20,000 years at that velocity(**)

https://en.wikipe...Oumuamua
says MarkT

IF it is a "probe"/"alien spacecraft" - it is a good disguise that would enable its operators to get in and get out without being noticed much and the possibility of capture is practically nil - as evidenced by no government on Earth scrambling to send a probe to look it over.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
-contd-
There is also a possibility that, iF it were an alien spacecraft disguised as an asteroid, it might have been programmed to keep its velocity under or within the velocity range of the average asteroid so as to prevent its true nature being discovered. Discovered by whom - you ask?
Discovered by a possible hostile force who would likely destroy such alien operators.
There is also a possibility that all on board are either dead - or in a "cryogenic" state of "sleep" - or some other process of preservation. If they were that far advanced that they could travel the cosmos, then they would have no need to acquire information by coming close to planets - and they would have programmed their instruments prior to coming into the Solar System,

All conjecture, of course. But they are now gone and have taken whatever information they needed with them. Let us hope that they are doing it all for science and have no wish to send an armada to invade our world.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
-contd-
One of the things that I/we have learned about humans - is that they are easily frightened by the unknown and/or unknowable. The vast majority are scared at the prospect that extraterrestrial intelligent and advanced lifeforms could possibly be living on exosolar planets somewhere in the Milky Way or in another close-by galaxy. It is a result of being taught from childhood that the human is the only possible sentient being in the Universe - and any other kinds of Life extends to microorganisms not much larger than a bacterium.
And, as the title of the article above strongly proves my point: "Scientists push back against Harvard alien spacecraft theory", the truth is that even scientists who have no knowledge of the facts, due to not having made it possible to explore the object soon after it was discovered. And, without considering ALL possibilities, they prefer to deny any that is quite offensive that reminds them of their failure to have it checked out while in the SS
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 08, 2018
@JaxPavan

"Da Schneib3 / 5 (2) 4 hours ago
Just so everybody knows, @Jax is a YEC. https://phys.org/...big.html

See the post on the changing speed of light. First post on that thread by that user. This is standard YEC doctrine."

==============

Jax, you have been accused by the person named above of being a Young Earth Creationist (YEC), or is it Young Earth Christian? What say you, Jax? Are you guilty as charged, or is Da Jerk only passing wind as usual with regards to your feelings on the subject?
Your defence will be expected at your convenience.
Da Schneib
4 / 5 (4) Nov 09, 2018
That was weird. Clicked once, got two posts. You're not supposed to be able to make 2 posts in 3 minutes.
Da Schneib
4 / 5 (4) Nov 09, 2018
I never said he was a Christian. There are these other religions, you know, @SEU. Maybe you've never heard of them.
FredJose
2.6 / 5 (5) Nov 09, 2018
@Da Schneib
See the post on the changing speed of light. First post on that thread by that user. This is standard YEC doctrine.

Sorry to burst your bubble, Das, but Biblical Creationsts do NOT subscribe to the theory of light changing speed [on its way to earth]. That is simply not within the scientifically observable data.
Please try a little harder to paint biblical creationists as scientific idiots. Or better still, do yourself a favor go and visit the two well known websites www.creation.com and www.answersingenesis.org to get a better idea of what they actually believe and proclaim regarding the origin of the universe and the starlight and time issue. Do a search on speed of light and see what comes up.
DarkHorse66
5 / 5 (4) Nov 09, 2018
That was weird. Clicked once, got two posts. You're not supposed to be able to make 2 posts in 3 minutes.

You do not appear to be the only one with that issue. I have noticed that there seem to be quite a few posters having to delete double-posts lately (or to apologise for one). Not to mention that it is happening across many different articles.

Best Regards, DH66
rrwillsj
5 / 5 (3) Nov 09, 2018
I'm just asking for verifiable,repeatable evidence...
And what I'm getting back us "We don't need no stinking evidence. We got faith!"

And that's not just from the stuporstitious but fro, a variety of commentators. It doesn't matter what you want to believe or wish to be true. Reality is indifferent to our fabulous speculations.

What little data we were able to collect from Oumuamua's passage is going to require patience. Until we can collect more examples and if we are prepared, samples.

It will be maddenly frustrating for the OCD crowd,since there is a very real possibility the next few interstellar objects sighted? Could turn out to be very different from Oumuamua and each other!

Captain Stumpy
3.9 / 5 (7) Nov 09, 2018
@DH66
You do not appear to be the only one with that issue. I have noticed that there seem to be quite a few posters having to delete double-posts lately (or to apologise for one). Not to mention that it is happening across many different articles.

Best Regards, DH66
Long time no see: Glad you're back
not just multiple articles, but multiple operating systems and equipment as well

.

.

do yourself a favor go and visit the two well known websites www.creation.com and www.answersingenesis.org to get a better idea of what they actually believe and proclaim
@fred
promoting pseudoscience on a science site and linking your sites to clarify what type of pseudoscience you're promoting?

wow...

PS - it doesn't matter what pseudoscience you've prescribed to; it is *not* science
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
1.8 / 5 (5) Nov 09, 2018
I never said he was a Christian. There are these other religions, you know, @SEU. Maybe you've never heard of them.
says Da Jerk

Well Da, in that case, you might want to choose from this list below that names all KNOWN religions to illustrate which religion that you surmise most closely fits that religion of which Jax Pavan is an alleged member/believer. You seem to have established already that Jax Pavan is a "young Earther", but not a Christian or, as SpookyOtto would put it, an Xtian.

https://en.wikipe...aditions

I suppose Jax Pavan's alleged religion might begin with a "C", as you have placed a C at the end of YE. True Creationists don't believe in that 6000 - 7000 year age of the Earth nonsense, but many who belong to one religion or another do believe that the Earth is that young - in spite of all the evidence against it. But that is their choice, just as it is YOUR choice to believe or unbelieve as you do.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2.2 / 5 (5) Nov 09, 2018
I'm just asking for verifiable,repeatable evidence...
And what I'm getting back us "We don't need no stinking evidence. We got faith!"


There's nothing wrong with asking. Some people stick to their guns, just like the Dark Matter believers stick to theirs. Tremendous amount of faith in the unseen Dark Matter there is. And if you ask for evidence, you get gang-rated all "1's".

And that's not just from the stuporstitious but fro, a variety of commentators. It doesn't matter what you want to believe or wish to be true. Reality is indifferent to our fabulous speculations.


Do you mean stuporstitions such as the belief and faith in "Wakinyan Tanka"?

What little data we were able to collect from Oumuamua's passage is going to require patience. Until we can collect more examples and if we are prepared, samples.
says rrwilliejoe

The object is gone. Much too late to do anything about it, williejoe. But maybe another just like it will come soon.

Mark Thomas
4 / 5 (6) Nov 09, 2018
IF it is a "probe"/"alien spacecraft" - it is a good disguise that would enable its operators to get in and get out without being noticed much


I disagree, it is a lousy disguise. If it looked any other lumpy space rock, that would be a much better disguise. This object is very elongated with a roughly 10 to 1 aspect ratio just calling attention to itself because we have seen nothing like it before. Because we are too primitive to have even a rudimentary sensor grid around the solar system, a simple coating of very dark material could have reduced the amount of reflected light so low as to render the object undetectable.

Just spray paint your alien spacecraft with this:

https://wonderful...y-paint/

Mark Thomas
3.8 / 5 (5) Nov 09, 2018
and the possibility of capture is practically nil


I disagree here too. 60,000 mph is just not that fast if it stays on the same trajectory. As I wrote above, in 250 years we may very well have spacecraft more than up to the task.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
3 / 5 (4) Nov 09, 2018
IF it is a "probe"/"alien spacecraft" - it is a good disguise that would enable its operators to get in and get out without being noticed much


I disagree, it is a lousy disguise. If it looked any other lumpy space rock, that would be a much better disguise. This object is very elongated with a roughly 10 to 1 aspect ratio just calling attention to itself because we have seen nothing like it before. Because we are too primitive to have even a rudimentary sensor grid around the solar system, a simple coating of very dark material could have reduced the amount of reflected light so low as to render the object undetectable.

Just spray paint your alien spacecraft with this:

https://wonderful...y-paint/

says MarkT

You are too anthropocentric to determine why "they" chose a cigar-shaped space vehicle, IF it is that. Perhaps in their world, cigar-shapes are common and more available.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
3 / 5 (4) Nov 09, 2018
-contd-
A potato-shaped spacecraft may be a more cleverer disguise TO US, but would certainly not be built for speed. The artist's impression seems to be much more fluid and could pierce through pockets/clumps of particulates in the interstellar medium. Similar to an old Model T Ford trying to outrace a modern sleek and long race car built for speed. A potato shaped spacecraft would have less of a chance to escape from a hostile operator.
But its trajectory while it was within the Solar System did seem to have been planned by some intelligence. But suppose it was similar to a Drone with nobody inside - except for instruments to receive information only.
I will always be intrigued by this object.
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
3 / 5 (4) Nov 09, 2018
and the possibility of capture is practically nil


I disagree here too. 60,000 mph is just not that fast if it stays on the same trajectory. As I wrote above, in 250 years we may very well have spacecraft more than up to the task.
says MT

WE??? LOL Now THAT is quite ambitious. Have you considered cryogenics to preserve you so that you might be woken in 250 Earth years?

IF it is a probe/alien spacecraft that is only gathering information, then the velocity is just about right for that purpose. But once it leaves our SS then it might 'shift gears' and go into a hyperspace velocity mode or, in the words of Captain James Tiberius Kirk - Warp Drive.
That cigar-shape should have no problem shaking off particles of Matter/Energy as it punches a hole in whatever is in its way.
I do wish that NASA had done so much more to find out its true nature and purpose, if any. They were caught with their pants down - as the saying goes.
rrwillsj
4 / 5 (4) Nov 09, 2018
This is a problem I have commented upon before. That so many commentators have never actually worked with tools more complicated than a videogame controller.

I used the word "knapped" precisely. Anyone who has worked stone or stone sculpture or experienced hands-on paleoarcheology? Would immediately recognized the estimated shape of Oumuamua as an asteroidal core struck out with a blow by another rock.

A cosmic version of a Hominidae smacking loose a flint core from a mass of aggregate.

Considering, that at perihelion Oumuamua achieved a momentum/velocity of 87+ km/s from gravitational drag.

Though passing closely to the Sun. It held together!

Leaves me confident that the Big O consists of a solid chunk of core nickel-iron.
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (3) Nov 09, 2018
No I am not a YEC. That's hogwash in my opinion.

There is strong empirical evidence to support a decreasing speed of light, which, if you hold the energy of any given putative photon constant and consistent with what we see now, at the time it was emitted, then that accounts for the red shift and the universe needs no Big Bang.

As for the age of the universe, it depends on whether it is steady state, or perhaps even collapsing, for example, if it was a nested black hole in another universe? I'll go out on a limb and say that according to a mathematicians view, there appears to be a potential one to one correspondence between a black hole and a holographic universe. But, That's far afield and all metaphysics; I'm open to the possibilities.
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (3) Nov 09, 2018
@Cusco

Ah the cathedrals, yes, but they were started and abandoned repetitively, due to funding,war,etc. None were intended or necessarily needed more than a hundred years to build to the point that no one could hold mass in any part of it.

Thus, I stand by my assertion.
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (3) Nov 09, 2018
If oumuamua is alien and it is rotating, then it seems to me it is a dead probe, or it is simulating a very weak gravitation field, or it is using a "gravity assist engine," probably better named a tidal engine:

Gravity-Assist Engine for Space Propulsion

www.scribd.com/book/306456911
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (2) Nov 09, 2018
@egg

Sorry for the delay answering the YEC. I just got back to the thread.
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (2) Nov 09, 2018
@egg

Supposing it is alien... stretching the speculation. . .
Another possibility worth considering is that given its speed and thus the timescales involved in its travels, not to mention it's apparently minimalist needs (no stop for repairs, materials, or resupply), then it would be probably "robotic" or synthetic AI. And, might not be interested in communicating with pre-AI evolutionary life.
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (3) Nov 09, 2018
C appears to be decreasing by 2 cm/s per year.

Empirical evidence for a decreasing speed of light.
Yves-Henri Sanejouand

https://arxiv.org...908.0249

Take Virgo
16.5 MPC
54 million ly
z=0.0036
1+z=1.0036 = lambda observed (or emitted)/lambda expected (or now)

Photon E = hc/lambda

Set E constant

E = h*(c observed or emitted)/(lambda observed or emitted) = h*(c now)/(lambda now)

Simplify

(c observed or emitted) / (c now) = (lambda observed or emitted) / (lambda now or expected) = 1 + z = 1.0036

Check:
54 million light years x 0.02 m/s/yr = 1,080,000 m/s = delta c

c emitted/ c now = 301,080,000 / 300,000,000 = 1.0036 = 1+z
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (3) Nov 09, 2018
Take ESO 540-030
z+1=1.000747
11.35 million light years

c emitted/c now = 1.000756

Difference is 0.000009

Take HolnbergII
z+1= 1.000474
11million light years

c emitted/c now = 1.000733

Difference is 0.000159

Note: just as in the expanding model, the red shift varies with the relative velocity vectors of the galaxies relative to our own.
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (3) Nov 09, 2018
Many promoting YEC backhandedly want to discredit any alternative theory to the Big Bang, which has a creation event.

It's similar to occupying the discoursive space with a false conspiracy theory in order to cover up a real on. Controlled dialectic.

So, for example, suppose you're getting beat by the Soviets in the space race, all the way until Apollo, and you want to get the most public relations and propaganda value out of that penultimate victory. But, most of the video is grainy? So, you go to Hollywood and hire a director like Kubrick because he just finished a groundbreaking and visually stunning space movie like 2001. Unfortunately lots of the stuff he made starts to look photoshopped as the years roll on and photoshopping becomes more common knowledge.

So, you keep your secret, by inventing a false theory that the landings were a hoax. Now, folks either believe everything is legit, or they fall down the ridiculous rabbit hole of faked moon landings.
Osiris1
2 / 5 (4) Nov 10, 2018
Seen this one on other sites too. Prevailing thought is that it is a ship. No real image exists but 'artist concepts' Of course the 'artists' paint what they are told to paint and paid likewise.

My take is that it very well could be a scout. Speed through our system is irrelevant. At least one writer got it...the idea that it would turn on its warp drive once clear of our system. A true warp drive may be quite dangerous to be around when it is in use. Would YOU want to be compressed and expanded at multiples of 'C'? That and the energy transfers. Especially dangerous to nearby planets or other bodies according to what was told to one kidnappee of ship borne aliens. He was told that 'engaging star drive' near a planet would wreck the nearest continent. Take it for whatever you like, knowing there are many closed minds out there.

Be warned, if a scout, a report was sent. We HAVE to assume for self preservation: THEY ARE COMING!!
All the world must unite and prepare!
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (2) Nov 10, 2018
I would say that warp drives are simply a thematic artifice used by science fiction writers and screenwriters to further a the plot with temporal continuity from place to place. For some good alternatives, try "The Forever War" by Joe Haldeman, or "The World at The End Of Time" by Frederick Pohl.

If Oumuamua was waiting to do anything for years until it cleared the sun's heliosphere, it would be waiting to transmit data with less interference.
Anonym623690
1 / 5 (3) Nov 10, 2018
Hello, My name is is Daniella Macleod, i have a little story to share, i was happily married with my husband for years and we had 3 beautiful kids, a time came when my husband started to act strange in the house and never cared for me and the kids, unknowing to me that he has had an affair with another woman elsewhere that made him not to care anymore, it got to a point where i had to take the kids to my mother because of what was happening in the house, i never wanted to divorced with him because i loved him and i knew things was not alright, so i had to discuss this with a friend and told me i should find a spell caster that can help me, that's how i met Doctor Joseph Ugo, at first i never believed in spell casting so i had to give it a try, after i contacted this man, he gave me a period of 14 days and behold,what he said to me really came to pass,my husband came back to me on the 14th day and apologized, everything went fine and the children are back home, we are living happily ag
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
1 / 5 (2) Nov 10, 2018
Katie Mack, a well-known astrophysicist at North Carolina State, also took issue with the alien hype.
"The thing you have to understand is: scientists are perfectly happy to publish an outlandish idea if it has even the tiniest sliver of a chance of not being wrong," she wrote on Twitter.
"But until every other possibility has been exhausted dozen times over, even the authors probably don't believe it."


The lady has inadvertently made scientists out to be liars 'just in case' their original hypotheses don't pan out - and on the outside chance that the alternative is correct. So much for the "scientific method". LOL

Asked if he believed the hypothesis he put forward, Bialy told AFP:
"I wouldn't say I 'believe' it is sent by aliens, as I am a scientist, and not a believer, I rely on evidence to put forward possible physical explanation for observed phenomena."


THERE is the classic 'escape clause'; put out a possibility - and then withdraw it just a tad.
LOL
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
1 / 5 (2) Nov 10, 2018
Seen this one on other sites too. Prevailing thought is that it is a ship. No real image exists but 'artist concepts' Of course the 'artists' paint what they are told to paint and paid likewise.

My take is that it very well could be a scout. Speed through our system is irrelevant. At least one writer got it...the idea that it would turn on its warp drive once clear of our system. A true warp drive may be quite dangerous to be around when it is in use. Would YOU want to be compressed and expanded at multiples of 'C'?

Be warned, if a scout, a report was sent. We HAVE to assume for self preservation: THEY ARE COMING!!
All the world must unite and prepare!
say Osiris

If even scientists don't put any belief into Oumuamua possibly being an actual probe/alien spacecraft sans evidence that it isn't, how would you expect the world's politicians to entice whole populations to become unified enough to throw off a possible forthcoming invasion from outer space?
Surveillance_Egg_Unit
2 / 5 (3) Nov 10, 2018
I would say that warp drives are simply a thematic artifice used by science fiction writers and screenwriters to further a the plot with temporal continuity from place to place.....


The human 'space age' is still in its infancy, Jax. Much of the ideas for future human space travel, such as "warp drives" comes from the imaginations of sci-fi authors. They have given humanity the ability to ASPIRE to go far beyond their earthly limitations - to boldly go where no man has gone before (borrowing a phrase from Captain James T. Kirk.)

If Oumuamua was waiting to do anything for years until it cleared the sun's heliosphere, it would be waiting to transmit data with less interference.
says JaxPavan

It escaped early detection due to scientists' disbelief in the impossible. Anthropocentricity at its finest.
Earth is prime Real Estate, you see. It is the Porterhouse Steak amongst the ground beef. IF aliens wanted to claim Earth for themselves, they would have no problem
JaxPavan
1 / 5 (1) Nov 11, 2018
@Egg

Kirk could have "boldly gone" in cryogenic suspension or without aging due to time dilation at sub-light speed. They problem is millions of years would have passed for the federation while he was traveling. That reality is both unsettling to the average viewer and thematically complicated. For example, he would have met better model enterprises whenever he turned towards federation space, etc. Warp drives had no basis in science, they solved a thematic problem. Wormholes at least have a tenuous scientific basis, but they lack freedom of navigation, and hence don't parallel an old sailing ship, etc.

If we assume oumuamua is alien, then it informs us that nothing is coming for us. . . That effective galactic travel and exploration is so tediously slow, perhaps dumbed down by design constraints for interstellar dangers such as cosmic rays, that nothing is likely coming again, not for a long time. . .

That's the tragedy of not checking it out.
JaxPavan
3 / 5 (2) Nov 11, 2018
On the other hand, If we assume Oumuamua is simply an asteroid. . . An asteroid that is changing speed and direction without any comet-like off-gassing, then it seems likely that NASA's survey of "Near Earth Objects" just got a lot less reliable and predictive.
rrwillsj
5 / 5 (4) Nov 11, 2018
Wow, watching Jax and segue go at each other with their blithering nonsense... Wow...

And then throw in osirislost incoherent rant into the soupçon.
Awesome!

Even the annoyingmousie sockpuppetry contributed .

All we're missing now is the usual tedious babbling nonsense from FredJose and ottogimli.
Oh joy!
savvys84
1 / 5 (1) 12 hours ago
yay, go aliens
TheGhostofOtto1923
not rated yet 9 hours ago
On the other hand, If we assume Oumuamua is simply an asteroid. . . An asteroid that is changing speed and direction without any comet-like off-gassing, then it seems likely that NASA's survey of "Near Earth Objects" just got a lot less reliable and predictive
Maybe it's an asteroid with aliens inside of it.
TheGhostofOtto1923
not rated yet 8 hours ago
usual tedious babbling
ahaaahaaaa willis the bellybutton poet makes another joke.
Mark Thomas
not rated yet 3 hours ago
As usual, Caveman Otto believes he is adding brilliant insight to the dialog, but isn't. Why are you trolling folks here? Is that inferiority complex bothering you again?
SURFIN85
not rated yet 2 hours ago
Obviously if they came and left they saw absolutely no reason to stay....
JaxPavan
not rated yet 1 hour ago
@rrwillsj

Besides slinging insults why not do something useful and check my math.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.