Predictability of the EAP teleconnection pattern can improve climate services over East Asia

September 12, 2018, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Credit: CC0 Public Domain

A group of scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the UK Met Office Hadley Center, investigated the absence of the East Asia-Pacific pattern in the extratropics using state-of-the-art coupled seasonal forecast systems. Their results indicate that the extratropical circulation is much less predictable, compared to the tropical component, owing to the large atmospheric internal variability.

The East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern is the dominant mode of variability during boreal summer over the western North Pacific and East Asia, extending from the tropics to . However, much of this pattern is absent in multi-model ensemble mean forecasts, characterized by very weak circulation anomalies in the mid and high latitudes. This situation also appears in the for the summer of 1998 (see figure), in which the Yangtze River basin experienced catastrophic floods, associated with an evident EAP pattern.

A group of scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the UK Met Office Hadley Center, investigated the absence of the EAP pattern in the extratropics using state-of-the-art coupled seasonal forecast systems. Their results indicate that the extratropical circulation is much less predictable, compared to the tropical component, owing to the large atmospheric internal variability.

"Not only the circulation, but also the surface temperature in eastern Russia, show low predictability", says Dr. Li Chaofan, lead author of the study. "We found the extratropical EAP pattern varies closely with the anomalous surface temperatures in eastern Russia."

This unpredictable circulation-surface temperature connection associated with the EAP pattern can also modulate the East Asian rainband, knowledge of which is beneficial for a better understanding of current seasonal forecasts and climate services over East Asia.

Explore further: Positive feedback between East Asian mid-latitude circulation and land surface temperature

More information: Xiaozhen Lin et al, Predictable and Unpredictable Components of the Summer East Asia–Pacific Teleconnection Pattern, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2018). DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7305-5

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