Toward a better prediction of solar eruptions

February 8, 2018, CNRS
Towards a better prediction of solar eruptions
The result shows the presence of a reinforced multilayer magnetic cage (orange and pink) in which the magnetic rope (blue) develops during the last hours before the eruption. Credit: © Tahar Amari et al. / Centre de physique théorique (CNRS/École Polytechnique).

A single phenomenon may underlie all solar eruptions, according to researchers from the CNRS, École Polytechnique, CEA and INRIA in an article featured on the cover of the February 8 issue of Nature. They have identified the presence of a confining 'cage' in which an entangled magnetic 'rope' forms, causing solar eruptions. It is the resistance of this cage to the attack of the rope that determines the power and type of the upcoming flare. This work has enabled the scientists to develop a model capable of predicting the maximum energy that can be released during a solar flare, which could have potentially devastating consequences for the Earth.

Just as on Earth, storms and hurricanes sweep through the atmosphere of the sun. These phenomena are caused by a sudden, violent reconfiguration of the , and are characterized by an intense release of energy in the form of light and particle emissions, and sometimes by the ejection of a bubble of plasma. Studying these phenomena, which take place in the corona (the outermost region of the sun), will enable scientists to develop forecasting models, just as they do for the Earth's weather. This should limit our technological vulnerability to , which can impact a number of sectors such as electricity distribution, GPS and communications systems.

In 2014, researchers showed that a characteristic structure, an entanglement of magnetic force lines twisted together like a rope, gradually appears in the days preceding a . However, until recently, they had only observed this rope in eruptions that ejected bubbles of plasma. In this new study, the researchers studied other types of flare, the models of which are still being debated, by undertaking a more thorough analysis of the solar corona, a region where the sun's atmosphere is so thin and hot that it is difficult to measure the solar magnetic field there. They did this by measuring the stronger magnetic field at the surface of the sun, and then using these data to reconstruct what was happening in the .

Modeling of the evolution of the magnetic rope breaking though the cage when it is weaker than the rope. Credit: © Tahar Amari et al. / Centre de physique théorique (CNRS/École Polytechnique).

They applied this method to a major flare that developed over a few hours on October 24, 2014. They showed that, in the hours before the , the evolving rope was confined within a multilayer magnetic 'cage.' Running evolutionary models on a supercomputer, they showed that the rope had insufficient energy to break through all the layers of the cage, making the ejection of a magnetic bubble impossible. Despite this, the high twist of the rope triggered an instability and the partial destruction of the cage, causing a powerful emission of radiation that led to disruptions on Earth.

Thanks to their method, which makes it possible to monitor the processes taking place in the last few hours leading up to a flare, the researchers have developed a model to predict the maximum energy that can be released from the observed region of the sun. The showed that for the 2014 eruption, a huge ejection of plasma would have occurred if the cage had been less resistant. This work demonstrates the crucial role played by the magnetic 'cage-rope' duo in controlling solar eruptions, as well as being a new step towards early prediction of such eruptions, which will have potentially significant societal impacts.

Explore further: Description of mechanism that halts solar eruptions

More information: Tahar Amari et al, Magnetic cage and rope as the key for solar eruptions, Nature (2018). DOI: 10.1038/nature24671

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cantdrive85
1 / 5 (5) Feb 08, 2018
This work demonstrates the crucial role played by the magnetic 'cage-rope' duo in controlling solar eruptions,

Magnetic cage? Magnetic rope? Obviously the plasma ignoramuses are unaware of plasma structures such as the plasmoid(cage) and plasma pinch which creates the electric Birkeland currents (ropes) which naturally create said plasmoids.

A single phenomenon may underlie all solar eruptions,

Yep, an exploding double layer which are also part and parcel with Birkeland currents and plasmoids.
Running evolutionary models on a supercomputer, they showed that the rope had insufficient energy to break through all the layers of the cage, making the ejection of a magnetic bubble impossible.

And they don't consider the circuit;
"Every circuit which contains an inductance L is intrinsically explosive (cf. II.D). The inductive energy Wj = 1/2 LI^ can be tapped at any point of the circuit." Alfven
The energy for the explosion is non-local, delivered by the circuit.
691Boat
5 / 5 (4) Feb 08, 2018
The energy for the explosion is non-local, delivered by the circuit


What are the voltage sources and sinks for your circuit?
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (2) Feb 09, 2018
What are the voltage sources and sinks for your circuit?


https://inis.iaea...18060222
691Boat
5 / 5 (4) Feb 09, 2018
What are the voltage sources and sinks for your circuit?


https://inis.iaea...18060222


Sorry, man. All those circuits, scenarios, and cases he went through are assuming a voltage differential. What is the source and sink in the circuit?
jonesdave
5 / 5 (4) Feb 09, 2018
What are the voltage sources and sinks for your circuit?


https://inis.iaea...18060222


Sorry, man. All those circuits, scenarios, and cases he went through are assuming a voltage differential. What is the source and sink in the circuit?


I can pretty much guarantee that nobody takes Alfven's scenario seriously in this day and age. I'm sure I've read of possible scenarios where DLs may form within solar flares, but not being the cause of them. More recent observations have pretty much nailed down the mechanism causing solar flares, as I'm sure you know.
https://www.natur...phys2675

I'm not aware of anybody still publishing who thinks DLs are the cause of flares, CMEs.
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (3) Feb 09, 2018
I'm not aware of anybody still publishing who thinks DLs are the cause of flares, CMEs.

Because they're plasma ignoramuses and their MHD models they use are incapable of replicating said phenomena. It's not in their rudimentary models so they believe they can't exist.
More recent observations have pretty much nailed down the mechanism causing solar flares, as I'm sure you know.

Not by using that pseudoscientific claptrap frozen-in fields they use to model the solar plasma. The solar plasma is not a perfect conductor, therefore (as even Falthammar acknowledges) the frozen-in condition is invalid. As such, that whole paper is bupkis.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (3) Feb 09, 2018
Not by using that pseudoscientific claptrap frozen-in fields they use to model the solar plasma. The solar plasma is not a perfect conductor, therefore (as even Falthammar acknowledges) the frozen-in condition is invalid. As such, that whole paper is bupkis.


You really don't have a clue, do you? Please tell us when anybody last suggested exploding frigging DLs were the cause of solar flares? It is ancient history. It doesn't match observation. Nobody believes it. Nobody.
And what about the frozen-in condition? How many times do we need to tell you idiots this? MRx CANNOT happen where the frozen-in condition is valid. That's the bloody point. It needs to be violated for it to happen. That's what Alfven was saying. Falthammar knows this, which is why he is perfectly happy to accept MRx in both the magnetosphere and in solar flares:

Magnetic Substorms and Solar Flares
http://adsabs.har...89..731M
Falthammar is a co-author.

jonesdave
5 / 5 (3) Feb 09, 2018
OK, maybe this will clarify things for the terminally confused:

The nonexistence of parallel electric fields was later challenged by Alfven, who sug­gested that auroral primary electrons may gain their energy from falling through a paral­lel potential drop above the ionosphere and described how parallel electric fields can 'cut' magnetic field lines........
Since then, an overwhelming amount of empirical data have proven that magnetic field aligned electric fields exist and are of key importance in the physics of auroras [Falthammar, 2004], in magnetic field reconnection [Mozer, 2005].......


http://onlinelibr...0002/pdf
jonesdave
5 / 5 (3) Feb 09, 2018
A little more from Falthammar:

Reconnection is considered to be one of the most important phenomena in cosmic plasma, as a means of topology change and energy release..........The reconnection events in the geomagnetic tail that are associated with magnetospheric substorms have many similarities to the fast energy release that takes place in solar flares.............The value of this for understanding solar flares and other kinds of energy release in cosmic plasmas can hardly be exaggerated.


http://www.diva-p...XT01.pdf
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (4) Feb 10, 2018
I don't think you know what a DL is per Alfven.
The most important line from Alfvén's paper to which I linked;

"This means that DL stands for any electric field parallel to the magnetic field."

Given the obvious electric currents of the prominences those parallel fields are an unavoidable result, it is the known geometry of these currents.
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (4) Feb 10, 2018
From the paper you linked, an example of the pseudoscience in use by the plasma ignoramuses;
"However, in the corona6 the magnetic field pressure dominates the plasma pressure (low plasma beta) and the magnetic flux is frozen into the highly conductive plasma. As a result, the emitting plasma trapped in coronal loops outlines the geometry of the magnetic field and their structural changes reflect the changes of the field connectivity."
Hmmm, frozen-in magnetic flux, i.e. pseudoscience. Regardless of whether Falthammar uses the terminology makes little difference as he himself has agreed with Alfvén's POV regarding MRx.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (2) Feb 10, 2018
Hmmm, frozen-in magnetic flux, i.e. pseudoscience. Regardless of whether Falthammar uses the terminology makes little difference as he himself has agreed with Alfvén's POV regarding MRx.


Wrong, oh ignorant one. How can he agree, when he is advocating MRx in solar flares, and Alfven didn't? When he advocates it in the magnetosphere, and Alfven didn't? You are the ignoramus, and are living in the past. Alfven was wrong, live with it. Falthammar has lived long enough to see lab results and in-situ measurements of MRx. If he was such a great supporter of Alfven (which he is) why isn't he advocating this exploding DL nonsense? Why is nobody else? Not only do you not understand the science of what you are criticising, but you are ignorant of what you are proposing. There is only one ignoramus around here.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (2) Feb 10, 2018
"This means that DL stands for any electric field parallel to the magnetic field."


Which is obviously wrong. See the Falthammar papers I linked. He never once calls these parallel fields double layers, even though he mentions DLs in a different context elsewhere. This would be the prime opportunity to equate them with DLs - he doesn't.
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (4) Feb 10, 2018
The not pseudoscientific explanation of the explosive event the plasma ignoramuses prefer to reinvent and call magnetic reconnection while relying on pseudoscientific concepts such as moving and breaking/reconnecting (requiring monopoles) field lines and such ,is a Langmuir burst.
http://spp.astro....muir.pdf
jonesdave
5 / 5 (2) Feb 10, 2018
The not pseudoscientific explanation of the explosive event the plasma ignoramuses prefer to reinvent and call magnetic reconnection while relying on pseudoscientific concepts such as moving and breaking/reconnecting (requiring monopoles) field lines and such ,is a Langmuir burst.
http://spp.astro....muir.pdf


Ha, calling Falthammar an ignoramus now! The arrogance of someone who is clearly clueless in the area of plasma physics! And no, that paper is nothing to do with the cause of solar flares, you numpty. It is what happens afterwards in some types of flares at some distance from the Sun. Which is where Ulysses was. Go on Google Scholar. Have a look. Do some reading.
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (3) Feb 10, 2018
So now, for some inexplicable reason, the signal transforms to look exactly like a Langmuir burst at some arbitrary distance from the source. No, the simpler answer is the source is a Langmuir burst.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (2) Feb 10, 2018
So now, for some inexplicable reason, the signal transforms to look exactly like a Langmuir burst at some arbitrary distance from the source. No, the simpler answer is the source is a Langmuir burst.


Really? I thought it was an exploding double layer. Lol. Basically, you haven't got a clue what a Langmuir burst is, nor how it could possibly initiate a solar flare. Read any paper you like, and you will see that the burst is due to electrons FROM the solar flare. That would be why nobody (other than you) has been stupid enough to suggest it is the other way round.
When Alfven's great friend, colleague and co-author is still praising him to the heavens, and yet is not accepting his DL hypothesis, but instead invoking MRx, then you know that you have lost the argument.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (3) Feb 10, 2018
So now, for some inexplicable reason.......


Not inexplicable at all. Read the papers. It is only inexplicable because you haven't got a clue what they're talking about.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (2) Feb 10, 2018
The solar flare of interest occurred on December 10, 1990, while the spacecraft was at a radial distance of ***0.98 AU from the Sun***. This flare emitted a stream of energetic electrons and an associated type III radio event, both of which were detected by Galileo. Starting about ***1 hour after the onset of the flare, a large number of intense Langmuir wave bursts were detected*** near the local electron plasma frequency, which was about 25 kHz. The Langmuir wave bursts, which lasted about 1.5 hours, coincided with the arrival of the solar electrons.


Fine structure of Langmuir waves produced by a solar electron event
http://onlinelibr...abstract
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (3) Feb 11, 2018
***1 hour after the onset of the flare, a large number of intense Langmuir wave bursts were detected***...

By the spacecraft ***where it was located about 1 AU from the Sun***....
The Langmuir wave bursts, which lasted about 1.5 hours, coincided with the arrival of the solar electrons.

Because they were ejected due to those same Langmuir bursts the spacecraft detected. Claiming the Langmuir bursts were created by the presence of the electrons is putting the cart in front of the horse.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (2) Feb 11, 2018
Because they were ejected due to those same Langmuir bursts the spacecraft detected. Claiming the Langmuir bursts were created by the presence of the electrons is putting the cart in front of the horse.


What on Earth are you smoking? Langmuir bursts are caused by the electrons ejected BY THE FLARE!!!!! It is not rocket science. Please show me otherwise. A link to anybody suggesting the impossibility of Langmuir bursts causing solar flares would be a start! Stop making crap up. You are making yourself look more ignorant and desperate than we already know that you are.
It is like saying that a ballooon bursts,, and the released air makes a toy windmill rotate Therefore the windmill caused the balloon to burst! Jesus.
I've said for some time that EU acolytes, by definition, need a minimum level of scientific illiteracy to believe such nonsense. You are proving the point beautifully!
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (1) Feb 11, 2018
Langmuir bursts are caused by the electrons ejected BY THE FLARE!!!!!

Read the relevant EE literature (not plasma ignoramus) on the matter. It is quite clear the tail does not wag the dog as you claim.
jonesdave
5 / 5 (2) Feb 11, 2018
Langmuir bursts are caused by the electrons ejected BY THE FLARE!!!!!

Read the relevant EE literature (not plasma ignoramus) on the matter. It is quite clear the tail does not wag the dog as you claim.


I have read the literature, dummy. This is nothing to do with EE. Christ, it's not as if these waves are produced in every flare. They seem to be restricted to the type III radio bursts. Nobody, and I mean nobody, thinks the waves have anything to do with the cause of the flare - merely its magnitude and the location where it erupts - i.e. high in the corona.
If you believe otherwise, then show me where somebody has suggested how this might occur.
yep
1 / 5 (1) Feb 14, 2018
cantdrive85
1 / 5 (1) Feb 21, 2018
Toward a better prediction of solar eruptions


One thing for sure, it doesn't involve the pseudoscientific magnetic reconnection.
My favorite line in the following paper;
"There is no need for magnetic reconnection."
LOL!
https://www.ann-g...65/2017/

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