Global warming will expose millions more to floods

January 11, 2018
Flood damage from Hurricane Irma is seen September 14, 2017 in Naples, Florida

Global warming is expected to unleash more rain, exposing millions more people to river flooding particularly in the United States and parts of Asia, Africa and central Europe, researchers said Wednesday.

The study in the journal Science Advances calculates how much more will be needed to keep the risks of high-end floods constant in the next 25 years.

Unless actions are taken—such as enhancing dykes, boosting building standards, relocating settlements and managing rivers—the number of affected by devastating floods could skyrocket, warns the report, based on models that are 10 times more precise than commonly used climate computer simulations.

Asia—the continent with the largest historical high-end risk—would get hit the hardest, with the number of people affected by river flooding projected to go from 70 to 156 million by 2040, it said.

For instance, Pakistan, already prone to flooding, "will observe almost a doubling in high-end flood risk," with 11 million people at risk of floods unless protective measures are taken by 2040.

"In South America the number of people affected by flooding risks will likely increase from six to 12 million, in Africa from 25 to 34 million," it added.

In Germany the number of people affected is projected to rise sevenfold, from 100,000 to 700,000.

In North America, it could rise from 100,000 to one million.

"More than half of the United States must at least double their protection level within the next two decades if they want to avoid a dramatic increase in river flood risks," said lead author Sven Willner from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The increase in river flood risks over the next few decades is being driven by the amount of greenhouse gases already emitted into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels.

When more heat-trapping pollutants surround the Earth, more moisture is held in the air, leading to more rainfall.

Cutting these emissions is crucial to reducing flood risks for future generations.

"It is clear that without limiting human-caused warming to well below two degrees Celsius (36 Fahrenheit), river flood risks in our century will increase in many regions to a level that we cannot adapt to," said Anders Levermann, a researcher at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York.

"The findings should be a warning to decision-makers," added Levermann.

"Doing nothing will be dangerous."

Explore further: Climate change impacts already locked in—but the worst can still be avoided

More information: Sven N. Willner et al. Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels, Science Advances (2018). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao1914

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BackBurner
1 / 5 (9) Jan 11, 2018
So this would be yet another "turtles all the way down" study?

When will someone explain that bad models with a demonstrated inability to predict, aren't any good and have no place in forming public policy?
antialias_physorg
5 / 5 (12) Jan 11, 2018
So this would be yet another "turtles all the way down" study?

In what way?

Those 'bad models' fit remarkably well. Where are they 'bad'

And you should be the first to listen to them - because it's going to be your (additional) tax dollars that will be taken to mitigate the damages if no action is taken.
greenonions1
4.7 / 5 (15) Jan 11, 2018
This is in response to backburner. Not wanting a dialogue - as I think I have finally learned the futility of that - but just putting a response out there.
Here is a graph of sea level rise - https://www.clima...Rise.png

Not to hard to see where it is going - and to have a pretty high confidence in the trend.
Climate models do work - https://www.thegu...-warming

As we are already seeing the results of past predictions - https://phys.org/...bal.html

It makes sense to pay attention to the science - and not the denier blogs.
HeloMenelo
5 / 5 (11) Jan 12, 2018
Likely the blogs the monkey trolls here help put in place, luckily more and more people everyday come here to see how they get exposed on a daily basis.
leetennant
3.9 / 5 (8) Jan 12, 2018
"It is clear that without limiting human-caused warming to well below two degrees Celsius..."

Yeah, so far below that it would be pretty well where we're at now. Let's all ponder the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees while looking at the real-world impacts of 1.1.

We are fucked.
Guy_Underbridge
1 / 5 (7) Jan 12, 2018
"With current sea-level increase trends, this property will be prime beach-front in just a few years! Think of the investment opportunities! Call now!"
leetennant
5 / 5 (5) Jan 12, 2018
"With current sea-level increase trends, this property will be prime beach-front in just a few years! Think of the investment opportunities! Call now!"


That's exactly how sea level rise works. They just pick up the shoreline and move it.
grandpa
1.4 / 5 (9) Jan 12, 2018
Could we also produce studies on the benefits of global climate change? The prevention of ice ages, russia, greenland, iceland, canada, mongolia being habitable. The receding of deserts, the greening of the earth. More rapid plant growth. Etc. Does every study have to be framed as if this is all bad? I have seen too many armageddon movies already.
Maggnus
5 / 5 (3) Jan 12, 2018
Could we also produce studies on the benefits of global climate change? The prevention of ice ages, russia, greenland, iceland, canada, mongolia being habitable. The receding of deserts, the greening of the earth. More rapid plant growth. Etc. Does every study have to be framed as if this is all bad? I have seen too many armageddon movies already.
That being the case, maybe you will recognize this exchange:

Vice President Becker: I don't accept that abandoning half of the country is necessary.

Gomez: Maybe if you would've listened to him sooner, it wouldn't be.
leetennant
5 / 5 (7) Jan 12, 2018
Could we also produce studies on the benefits of global climate change? The prevention of ice ages, russia, greenland, iceland, canada, mongolia being habitable. The receding of deserts, the greening of the earth. More rapid plant growth. Etc. Does every study have to be framed as if this is all bad? I have seen too many armageddon movies already.


There are no benefits to global rapid onset climatic changes.
greenonions1
5 / 5 (6) Jan 13, 2018
Could we also produce studies on the benefits of global climate change?
Today's article was about sea level rise. The benefits of rising oceans - there is more water water to swim in.... bigger oceans means more fish.....
It is understandable that you are tired of bad news - and want to feel better. That does not change reality. We can ignore the problems we face - like species extinction, poverty, disease, food shortages, energy needs, etc. Or we can study them - and see what we can do to combat them. I am up for the latter. Here is a look at how some of us see the critical nature of what is hapenning - http://www.resili...ollapse/
Zzzzzzzz
5 / 5 (6) Jan 13, 2018
Could we also produce studies on the benefits of global climate change? The prevention of ice ages, russia, greenland, iceland, canada, mongolia being habitable. The receding of deserts, the greening of the earth. More rapid plant growth. Etc. Does every study have to be framed as if this is all bad? I have seen too many armageddon movies already.


If you are searching for delusion, its not hard to find.....
TrollBane
5 / 5 (1) Jan 13, 2018
"The prevention of ice ages, russia, greenland, iceland, canada, mongolia being habitable."

Well, grandpa, I've been living in one of those countries for decades, and my ancestors have also found it very habitable for hundreds and indeed thousands of years. I'm sure it would be news to millions of Russians that the land their ancestors lived in since prehistory is presently uninhabitable.
SamB
1 / 5 (5) Jan 13, 2018


If you are searching for delusion, its not hard to find.....


I agree. This article is a good example of that!
HeloMenelo
5 / 5 (6) Jan 14, 2018


If you are searching for delusion, its not hard to find.....


I agree. This article is a good example of that!


Said by bonobo himself ;)
MR166
1 / 5 (3) Jan 14, 2018
Let's see in 18,000 years the sea level rose 300 feet!!!!

Something tells me that mankind can cope with 2 millimeters per year. Meanwhile we in the US, an almost bankrupt country, are spending billions each year for worthless fictitious studies. Talk about fiddling while Rome burned. Then they write whole articles and papers wondering why people don't believe them. When you predict that everything is caused by CO2 you predict nothing. It is like betting on every horse in the race and claiming that you can predict the winner. Yea but you are different because you have a computer program that makes colorful graphs from "adjusted" data.
MR166
1 / 5 (3) Jan 14, 2018
The picture BTW is of Naples Florida. Naples is ONLY THREE FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL on a good day. We used to laugh at Chicken Little and now we are funding him to the tune of 100 a of billion a year.

grandpa
1 / 5 (4) Jan 14, 2018
"The prevention of ice ages, russia, greenland, iceland, canada, mongolia being habitable."

Well, grandpa, I've been living in one of those countries for decades, and my ancestors have also found it very habitable for hundreds and indeed thousands of years. I'm sure it would be news to millions of Russians that the land their ancestors lived in since prehistory is presently uninhabitable.

Obviously you didn't get my point that these countries are mostly so cold that the population density is very much less than the rest of the world.
grandpa
1.7 / 5 (6) Jan 14, 2018
The following chart shows carbon dioxide levels over the last 600 million years. To me it looks like the earth was entering the last years of existence as a planet with life due the continually diminishing levels of carbon dioxide. Sure too much is bad, but so is too little. Thank God for humans who are restoring the carbon dioxide levels so that life can continue on earth instead of earth turning into a giant ice ball.

http://www.johnen...Ward.jpg
TrollBane
5 / 5 (2) Jan 14, 2018
Gramps, I would have gotten your point if you had made it. You didn't.
grandpa
1 / 5 (4) Jan 14, 2018
The population density of Russia is 40 times less than India. Don't people just know this. Russia and Canada make up about 25 percent of earths land mass, but only 2.4 percent of the earths population. I think that disparity is relatively common knowledge. Global warming would make much more land more habitable than less habitable. Once can see from the chart I supplied that carbon dioxide levels were frequently over 3000 ppm. The current levels are nearing 400 ppm. It is becoming clearer that solar energy and wind will practically replace fossil fuels within 20 years. We will be lucky to ever get to 500 ppm carbon dioxide based off how fast the energy situation is changing world wide. The United States carbon emission are at a 25 year low in 2017. https://www.reute...1N1J311B Way ahead of plan, and that is way ahead of plan. Why is everyone scare mongering about this.
greenonions1
5 / 5 (1) Jan 14, 2018
grandpa
Why is everyone scare mongering about this.
Because millions die every year from the effects of breathing polluted air - http://www.who.in...tion/en/

So there is more than one reason to stop burning fossil fuels.

Now - all of the data regarding previous C02 levels was brought to you courtesy of science (i assume you did not take the readings yourself.) That same community of scientists is sounding the alarm regarding the potential crisis we are staring at. Yes grandpa we know C02 levels and temperatures have been much higher in the past. We also know a lot about the previous extinction events. Just because you choose not to listen to science - does not make it a smart policy.
leetennant
5 / 5 (2) Jan 15, 2018
grandpa
Why is everyone scare mongering about this.
Because millions die every year from the effects of breathing polluted air - http://www.who.in...tion/en/

So there is more than one reason to stop burning fossil fuels.

Now - all of the data regarding previous C02 levels was brought to you courtesy of science (i assume you did not take the readings yourself.) That same community of scientists is sounding the alarm regarding the potential crisis we are staring at. Yes grandpa we know C02 levels and temperatures have been much higher in the past. We also know a lot about the previous extinction events. Just because you choose not to listen to science - does not make it a smart policy.


"I just don't understand why people are worried about us returning to Miocene conditions"

Yeah, Grandpa, it's a stumper.
Captain Stumpy
not rated yet Jan 30, 2018
I think that disparity is relatively common knowledge. Global warming would make much more land more habitable than less habitable. Once can see from the chart I supplied that carbon dioxide levels were frequently over 3000 ppm. The current levels are nearing 400 ppm
@grandpa
problems
1- you forgot that the problem isn't just one thing
2- the system is complex - tweaking it in heat doesn't mean you will be able to plant grain in Antarctica
3- the creatures that lived in higher CO2 conditions evolved to live that way over a long period of time
4- rapid change is the key-word to the problem

there is so much more to be aware of - so a suggestion for you: ignore the political sites & blogs

instead of getting your info from reuters and johnenglander, get your info from the source like - https://scholar.google.com/

if that is too difficult to understand, either do something about it here - https://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm

or directly query the authors of studies

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