New hope for limiting warming to 1.5 C

September 18, 2017, University of Oxford
A composite image of the Western hemisphere of the Earth. Credit: NASA

Significant emission reductions are required if we are to achieve one of the key goals of the Paris Agreement, and limit the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C; a new Oxford University partnership warns.

In a collaboration involving the University of Exeter, University College London and several other national and international partners, researchers from the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute (ECI) and Oxford Martin School have investigated the geophysical likelihood of limiting global warming to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C."

Published today in the journal Nature Geoscience, the paper concludes that limiting the increase in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels to 1.5°C, the goal of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, is not yet geophysically impossible, but likely requires more ambitious than those pledged so far.

Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding 'carbon budget' (the total amount of CO2 emissions compatible with a given global average warming) for 1.5°C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System Models, new experiments with an intermediate-complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple model. In all cases the level of emissions and warming to date were taken into account.

Dr Richard Millar, lead author and post-doctoral research fellow at the Oxford Martin Net Zero Carbon Investment Initiative at Oxford University, said: "Limiting total CO2 emissions from the start of 2015 to beneath 240 billion tonnes of carbon (880 billion tonnes of CO2), or about 20 years' of current emissions, would likely achieve the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels."

"Previous estimates of the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget based on the IPCC 5th Assessment were around four times lower, so this is very good news for the achievability of the Paris targets," notes Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, a co-author on this study and a key expert on carbon budgets for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "The 5th Assessment did not specifically address the implications of the very ambitious 1.5°C using multiple lines of evidence as we do here. The ambition of Paris caught much of the science community by surprise."

Co-author Professor Michael Grubb of University College London, concludes: "This paper shows that the Paris goals are within reach, but clarifies what the commitment to 'pursue efforts to limit the to 1.5°C' really implies.

"Starting with the global review due next year, countries have to get out of coal and strengthen their existing targets so as to keep open the window to the Paris goals. The sooner global emissions start to fall, the lower the risk not only of major climatic disruption, but also of the economic disruption that could otherwise arise from the need for subsequent reductions at historically unprecedented rates, should near-term action remain inadequate."

Explore further: Allowable 'carbon budget' most likely overestimated

More information: Halfway to doubling of CO2 radiative forcing, Nature Geoscience (2017). DOI: 10.1038/ngeo3036

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, Nature Geoscience (2017). nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/ngeo3031

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23 comments

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neiorah
not rated yet Sep 18, 2017
Clean diesel is an oxymoron like honest politicians. I have never felt that "clean diesel" has any merit like the issue with Volkswagen. The term is used to fix a sector of the economy that is tanking with all the talk about global warming. Capitalism at its best....NOT
Shootist
1 / 5 (9) Sep 18, 2017
New hope for limiting warming to 1.5 C


Bla bla bla

Massive Arctic ice GAIN over past 5 years.

https://realclima...e-years/

The climate changes, that's what chaotic systems do.
leetennant
5 / 5 (4) Sep 19, 2017
New hope for limiting warming to 1.5 C


Bla bla bla

Massive Arctic ice GAIN over past 5 years.

https://realclima...e-years/

The climate changes, that's what chaotic systems do.


Arctic sea ice summer extent down 70% in the last 30 years. This is for September, which represents the minimum extent. The latest data from August 2017 is 10.5 per cent per decade decline with August 2017 the third lowest on satellite record for that month

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/
leetennant
5 / 5 (4) Sep 19, 2017
New hope for limiting warming to 1.5 C


Bla bla bla

Massive Arctic ice GAIN over past 5 years.

https://realclima...e-years/

The climate changes, that's what chaotic systems do.


Arctic sea ice summer extent down 70% in the last 30 years. This is for September, which represents the minimum extent. The latest data from August 2017 is 10.5 per cent per decade decline with August 2017 the third lowest on satellite record for that month

http://nsidc.org/...icenews/
Zzzzzzzz
5 / 5 (8) Sep 19, 2017
Leetennant, I did not read the delusional's comments, but....

1. Why is Russia setting up to control shipping lanes where there was once an ice cap, and claiming sovereignty in that area, where no interest existed previously?
2. Why were my colleagues and I asked to perform a study to design an SMR (Small Modular Reactor) Power Generation Facility on a huge barge complete with a small town, to deploy in the previously frozen Arctic for the purpose of oil and gas exploration in areas in the past inaccessible due to thick ice?

Those questions posed in the face of the claim that the Arctic ice is gaining, not retreating..... zero effort required beyond simply being aware of the world around me
SamB
1.5 / 5 (8) Sep 19, 2017
[Arctic sea ice summer extent down 70% in the last 30 years. This is for September, which represents the minimum extent. The latest data from August 2017 is 10.5 per cent per decade decline with August 2017 the third lowest on satellite record for that month


Bla bla bla

Massive Arctic ice GAIN over past 5 years.

https://realclima...e-years/

The climate changes, that's what chaotic systems do.

Read more at: https://phys.org/...imiting.
gkam
3.7 / 5 (10) Sep 19, 2017
I want to know where the deniers get their stuff.

Breitbart?

Exxon?

Koch Brothers?

Putin?
barakn
4.6 / 5 (10) Sep 19, 2017
Why did two UBC researchers tell the pilot of the plane they chartered to observe Canadian glaciers that their observations were "useless" because all of the glaciers had gained mass and advanced?

Source? I ask because this sounds suspiciously like made-up crap.
gkam
4 / 5 (8) Sep 19, 2017
"Nah, just keep your religion."

It is Education. Apparently you may be unaware of it.
gkam
3.9 / 5 (7) Sep 19, 2017
"Call it what you want, choosing to disregard observations or information that conflict with your beliefs only displays an education in ignorance."

I "choose" to follow the real studies with the real actual numbers and trend lines. Having earned a degree in this topic, I suggest you read up on it, as well. Go to www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1
dnatwork
5 / 5 (8) Sep 19, 2017
One guy points to the IPCC as a source.

The other points to Tucker Carlson.

"Never trust a man who wears a bow tie." State and Main, Coen Brothers
greenonions1
5 / 5 (12) Sep 19, 2017
Massive Arctic ice GAIN over past 5 years.
But that directly contradicts the facts. From another article today on physorg -
The sea ice cap changes with the season, growing in the autumn and winter and shrinking in the spring and summer. Its minimum summertime extent, which typically occurs in September, has been decreasing, overall, at a rapid pace since the late 1970s due to warming temperatures.
From - https://phys.org/...ent.html
HeloMenelo
4.6 / 5 (11) Sep 20, 2017
aaah antigoracle and his trolling socks are ready for another round of circle jerk... lets's play... :D
HeloMenelo
4.6 / 5 (11) Sep 20, 2017
aaah antigoracle and his trolling socks are ready for another round of circle jerk... lets's play... :D

Figures you'd be the first in when someone mentions a circle jerk....

Thats ok i understand your frustration seeming you can't ever back up anything you say, you and your socks have been on the inside for decades and will stay on the inside indefinately, might as well make the best of it eh ;)
HeloMenelo
4.6 / 5 (11) Sep 21, 2017
Now now, keep your nasty urges in the jungle in those trees you swinging from ;) this is a science site.
leetennant
5 / 5 (11) Sep 21, 2017
I "choose" to follow the real studies with the real actual numbers and trend lines

http://dailycalle...numbers/

Blah blah something about tidal gauges WTF plus denial of basic physics or something. Quoting it would take too much space.


But none of those links are to the people who actually monitor ice extent?? NSIDC are the scientists actually in the Arctic monitoring ice. NASA is another source because they have satellites monitoring ice as well.

https://climate.n...sea-ice/
HeloMenelo
4.6 / 5 (11) Sep 21, 2017
Now now, keep your nasty urges in the jungle in those trees you swinging from ;) this is a science site.

Really? Based on your first post in the thread it looks like you thought it was your bedroom...and those are your nasty urges monkey boy...remember?
aaah antigoracle and his trolling socks are ready for another round of circle jerk... lets's play... :D

That is you eager for a circle jerk right? Hold on let me double check....yes, definitely monkey monelo saying let's play.
Ugggh...creepy.

Silly monkey, we know your inability to understand the circle jerk you find yourself in is very limited(as is the word science), but you being slapped around time and again by all the good science here makes for one cracker of a show, now... can you reach out for that next banana (we know you can do it ;) :D
damsill12
4.6 / 5 (10) Sep 21, 2017
Looks like biscuit got the wrong impression (by the looks of it looking at his lack of understanding of science, there are 2 meanings of circle jerk, naturally you've taken the one it seems only you understand.

"Circle Jerk" is a pejorative slang term referring to a positive feedback loop which occurs when an idea, belief or meme that is already customary within an online community becomes re-iterated and rewarded in a perpetual cycle, giving rise to redundancy, clichés and karma whoring. This phenomenon is typically observed in communities consisting of self-contained forums devoted to specific interests, beliefs or subcultures.
HeloMenelo
4.6 / 5 (9) Sep 21, 2017
Looks like biscuit got the wrong impression (by the looks of it looking at his lack of understanding of science, there are 2 meanings of circle jerk, naturally you've taken the one it seems only you understand.

"Circle Jerk" is a pejorative slang term referring to a positive feedback loop which occurs when an idea, belief or meme that is already customary within an online community becomes re-iterated and rewarded in a perpetual cycle, giving rise to redundancy, clichés and karma whoring. This phenomenon is typically observed in communities consisting of self-contained forums devoted to specific interests, beliefs or subcultures.


Gotta spell out everything to this loon, and then he still does not understand it :D

Good on you for writing it down.

I don't need any votes though, on the other hand you've got 2 decades worth of 1 out of 5s to work on ;)

HeloMenelo
4.6 / 5 (10) Sep 21, 2017
It sure is, glad you're enjoying it, we sure always do, we'll be exposing your stupidity some more in the coming months, perhaps we'll laugh over it together again :D
HeloMenelo
5 / 5 (6) Sep 21, 2017
atta monkey ;)
TheGhostofOtto1923
not rated yet Sep 26, 2017
Georgie kamburoff speaks
"Nah, just keep your religion."

It is Education. Apparently you may be unaware of it
Was this the education you got from crapping out of 3 colleges and never getting an undergrad degree?
Having earned a degree in this topic
Well close. You bought an honoraary degree in an unrelated topic.

Anybody have a horseshoe or a hand grenade?
howhot3
not rated yet Sep 27, 2017
From the article;
the paper concludes that limiting the increase in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels to 1.5°C, the goal of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, is not yet geophysically impossible, but likely requires more ambitious emission reductions than those pledged so far.

So emissions of CO2 must be reduced significantly or else Boom goes the weasel! Sounds like we are at a stage 5 emergency!

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