Citizen scientists collected rare ice data, confirm warming since industrial revolution

Citizen scientists collected rare ice data, confirm warming since industrial revolution
Torne River, spring 2003 in Tornio. Credit: Terhi Korhonen

In 1442, Shinto priests in Japan began keeping records of the freeze dates of a nearby lake, while in 1693 Finnish merchants started recording breakup dates on a local river. Together they create the oldest inland water ice records in human history and mark the first inklings of climate change, says a new report published today out of York University and the University of Wisconsin.

The researchers say the meticulous recordkeeping of these historical "citizen scientists" reveals increasing trends towards later formation and earlier spring thaw since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

Sapna Sharma, a York University biologist, and John J. Magnuson, a University of Wisconsin limnologist, co-led an international team of scientists from Canada, United States, Finland, and Japan looking at this early data. Their findings are published in Nature Scientific Reports.

"These data are unique," says Sharma. "They were collected by humans viewing and recording the ice event year after year for centuries, well before was even a topic of discussion."

The records from Lake Suwa in the Japanese Alps, says Sharma, were collected by Shinto priests observing a legend about a male god who crossed the frozen lake to visit a female god at her shrine. A local Finnish merchant initiated data collection on Finland's Torne River because the river, and its frozen-or-thawed status, was important to trade, transportation, and food acquisition.

Citizen scientists collected rare ice data, confirm warming since industrial revolution
Lake Suwi's Omiwatari when the ice heaves in a line across the lake. Credit: York University

Ice seasonality, or when a lake or river freezes over in winter or thaws again in spring, are a variable strongly related to climate, says Magnuson. And while such a long-term, human-collected dataset is remarkable in and of itself, the climate trends they reveal are equally notable. "Even though the two waters are half a world apart and differ greatly from one another," he says, "the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems."

For example, the study found that, from 1443 to 1683, Lake Suwa's annual freeze date was moving almost imperceptibly to later in the year - at a rate of 0.19 days per decade. From the start of the Industrial Revolution, however, that trend in a later freeze date grew 24 times faster, pushing the lake's "ice on" date back 4.6 days per decade. On the Torne River, there was a corresponding trend for earlier ice break-up in the spring, as the speed with which the river moved toward earlier thaw dates doubled. These findings strongly indicate more rapid climate change during the last two centuries, the researchers report.

In recent years, says Magnuson, both waters have also exhibited more extreme ice dates corresponding with increased warming. For Lake Suwa, that means more years without full ice cover even occurring. Before the Industrial Revolution, Lake Suwa froze over 99 per cent of the time. More recently, it does so only half the time. A similar trend is seen with extremely early ice breakup on Torne River. Extreme cases once occurred in early May or later 95 per cent of the time, but they are now primarily in late April and early May.

Citizen scientists collected rare ice data, confirm warming since industrial revolution
Postcard from 1906 taken in Happaranda
"Our findings not only bolster what scientists have been saying for decades, but they also bring to the forefront the implications of reduced ice cover," says Sharma. The consequences of less ice span ecology, culture and economy. "Decreasing ice cover erodes the 'sense of place' that winter provides to many cultures, with potential loss of winter activities such as ice fishing, skiing, and transportation." Less and warmer waters also lead to more algal blooms and impaired water quality, she says.

The team of researchers say they are planning follow-up studies to better understand the ecological consequences of the big changes in these two water bodies.


Explore further

Winter Ice on Lakes, Rivers, Ponds: A Thing of the Past?

More information: Sapna Sharma et al, Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years, Scientific Reports (2016). DOI: 10.1038/srep25061
Journal information: Nature , Scientific Reports

Provided by York University
Citation: Citizen scientists collected rare ice data, confirm warming since industrial revolution (2016, April 26) retrieved 23 April 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2016-04-citizen-scientists-rare-ice-industrial.html
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Apr 26, 2016
local records are great but they have no bearing on global temperatures when they are single points of reference without multiple global measurements ...

Apr 26, 2016
local records are great but they have no bearing on global temperatures when they are single points of reference without multiple global measurements ...


Well, this single point of reference is just one of many that all agree.

Apr 26, 2016
It doesn't take studies to know that the climate has changed over the past 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000 et. al. years

The Hudson River froze solid at Haarlem Heights, Christmas 1776.
The Thames River froze solid every winter for centuries, solid enough to have "Winter Faires" on the ice
The Zuider Zee would freeze solid enough to allow ice skating.
In CE 1300 Iceland became surrounded by sea ice (froze over) all year, for at least the following 50 years. It was verra cold then.

There were vineyards for over 1000 years in Caledonia until around CE 1250, then it got too cold
There were dairy and wheat farms in Greenland for 400 years until around CE 1250, then it got too cold.

The fact is -- The Climate Changes. And, short of orbiting solar shields, there is zilch you can do about it. Well, maybe, you could paint your roof and roadways white.

Apr 26, 2016
How convenient they omit the fact that the ice cover was later in the 1800s than the 1900s and fluctuated in obvious cycles. Take a gander at how much warmer it was during the MWP.
http://onlinelibr...81d9e1a1

Apr 26, 2016
"The Climate Changes. ... there is zilch you can do about it"

The two data points, generated over centuries and on different continents, point to the Industrial Revolution and additional human activities having done more than "zilch" to the global climate.

The data go up and down rather than a straight line? We call that "weather." Does the general trend of the data go up rather than down? We call that "climate." If the general trend of the data were horizontal, we would say "no climate change."

Apr 26, 2016
You will recall there was an Ice age 12000 years ago, or glacial period. The last glaciation centered on the , Laurentide Ice Sheet , was a massive sheet of ice that covered millions of square miles, including most of Canada and a large portion of the Northern United States . It went away without any help from man.

In spite of the enormous transfer of The Sun's energy infused into the Earth atmosphere each 24 hours, the Earth maintains a constant temperature because, as a whole, there is no net gain or loss. The Earth receives 164 Watts per square meter over a 24 hour day , So the entire planet receives 84(84000000000000)Terrawatts of Power each 24 hours.

Apr 26, 2016
"local records are great but they have no bearing on global temperatures when they are single points of reference without multiple global measurements ..."

You are wrong about that. The records are over a long period of time at points remote from each other on the Earth, and yet they are in strong agreement in detail.

This is a significant finding.

Apr 26, 2016
confirm warming since industrial revolution


It was [much] warmer in Viking times (Medieval warm period) and probably in Roman times (Roman climate optimum) as well..

Ipso facto, the climate changes.

Apr 27, 2016
It was [much] warmer in Viking times (Medieval warm period) and probably in Roman times (Roman climate optimum) as well..

Ipso facto, the climate changes.


OK...following up a 'probably' with an 'ipso facto' is beyond stupid. Even for you.

Apr 27, 2016
It doesn't take studies to know that the climate has changed over the past 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000 et. al. years

The Hudson River froze solid at Haarlem Heights, Christmas 1776.
The Thames River froze solid every winter for centuries, solid enough to have "Winter Faires" on the ice
The Zuider Zee would freeze solid enough to allow ice skating.
In CE 1300 Iceland became surrounded by sea ice (froze over) all year, for at least the following 50 years. It was verra cold then.

There were vineyards for over 1000 years in Caledonia until around CE 1250, then it got too cold
There w
The fact is -- The Climate Changes. And, short of orbiting solar shields, there is zilch you can do about it. Well, maybe, you could paint your roof and roadways white.


shootist shot the potty miss and one right into his sockpuppet antigoracles face, there is zilch he can do about increasing his braincapacity though

Apr 27, 2016
guyjohn123,kaiserderden new antigoracle monkey sockpuppets to play with ! :D

Apr 27, 2016
And now the warming gets unnaturaly accelerated humanly induced , big oil and coal fired powerplants to name a few, as for the rest of your comment, sounds like something out of hillbilly ranch obviously that is the case monkey goracle, human induced warming accelerates it.
btw jyro is another antigoracle puppet... :D

Apr 27, 2016
he's clealy a sock

Apr 27, 2016
The Earth has been warming for thousands of years, since the last Ice age it has warmed. At one time before records were kept, the entire land there was frozen for thousands of years and rivers and lakes never thawed. The Earth is dynamic and has changed continually for 4.5 billion years.

And? So? The mantra of a denier: the earth has been warm and cold so man can't affect it.

Apr 27, 2016
[q
And? So? The mantra of a denier: the earth has been warm and cold so man can't affect it.
And? So? What's the mantra of the AGW Cultist?
It's warm, it must be man.
It's cold, it must be man.
It's dry, it must be man.
It's wet, it must be man.

Tell us Chicken Little. When CO2 emissions are reduced to zero how would you tell it's working?

Apr 30, 2016
A marina on Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire kept written records of when the lake became ice free ("ice-Out"). From the 1880s to 2016, the Ice-Out day moved from early May to mid-March. I remember looking at those handwritten records in the 1980s and getting that uncomfortable feeling that something was wrong. http://www.winnip...d=iceout

Apr 30, 2016
The actual data tells a different story, with cycles of warming and cooling that debunks AGW. What's most telling, is that in AGW alarmist interpretation, they conveniently omit the famine that occurred during the cold periods.
https://www.googl...+library

Apr 30, 2016
A marina on Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire kept written records of when the lake became ice free ("ice-Out"). From the 1880s to 2016, the Ice-Out day moved from early May to mid-March. I remember looking at those handwritten records in the 1980s and getting that uncomfortable feeling that something was wrong. http://www.winnip...d=iceout

http://blog.jim.c...rming-2/

Apr 30, 2016
Leave him be. He could look at a graph showing a clear upward trend and read associated commentary about the clear upward trend and still link to it as a "proof" that global warming isn't happening because the clear upward trend isn't linear. He's revealed himself as an illiterate weirdo enough for one lifetime. We should all put him on ignore and let him be.

Apr 30, 2016
Congratulations you retard, you can't even do simple sums.

Apr 30, 2016
And? So? The mantra of a denier: the earth has been warm and cold so man can't affect it.


The mantra of a Marxist, anti-capitalist warmist:

"We, your betters, are in consensus that the Earth is warming and will turn into Venus unless you surrender all your liberties and treasure to us NOW."

Apr 30, 2016
Why do some folk have the need to be contrary, just for the sake of it? We have sufficient information to make the Deniers slink away, . . if they were capable of being embarrassed.

But most of them use pseudonyms to avoid facing the consequences of their words.

May 01, 2016
Congratulations you retard, you can't even do simple sums.
Ooops - you're right - I must have pushed a button wrong on the calculator - no worries - it is 1728 - compared with 1598 - same point - it shows a warming trend - not a cooling trend. Any response to your denialist blog needing to leave out the first two data points? Oh no - that would mean admitting that you get your information from a moron.

Congratulations, you are winner of Dumbest Chicken Little Retard. Seriously, you don't know how to sum a series of numbers in Excel? Then, how can I possibly expect you to comprehend that the plot is generated by Excel and is the Moving Average with period 7. Now you can either educate yourself as to what that is, or remain the retard you are. Thanks for playing.

May 01, 2016
anti, your offensiveness is very old now. Please grow up, and end this childish and abusive nonsense.

May 01, 2016
Can any AGW denier inform us please of this very simple issue I've raised before but, has always been ignored:-

"Why do AGW deniers do their very best to sidestep & totally ignore Radiative Transfer ?"

Maths/physics expression of which arrives at (greenhouse gas) Radiative Forcing:-
https://en.wikipe..._forcing

Its Why Mars can reach >20C in summer even in the shade Despite its atmosphere being 1/100th of Earths Because its mostly CO2 ie >98% !!!

Why can't any AGW denier understand the significance of gases molecular vibrations in relation to Infra Red light ?

Is it just too hard or they love the uneducated chip on their shoulders & can't see Physics ?

All about Rate of Change (RoC), geological & Milankovich cinfluences all the time but, with far less RoC than observed with our short recent past whilst CO2 levels climb rapidly.

Why can't AGW deniers also not understand the inertia offered by Ocean Specific Heat ?

Education Puh-lease !

May 02, 2016
BartV says
Of course it is warming around lakes that have seen a huge city build up around it, like lake Suwa. And treated sewage flows into it etc. Why wouldn't the freeze dates change?...
Sure, you able to work out temperature & specific heat of the sewerage re amount of heat transferred ?

Then you can be confident AGW false ?

Mass of sewerage compared to mass of water, because I trust you have learned if you don't know sewerage temp but, do know comparative mass you use simple algebra, you know that middle school stuff & factor in specific heat of both remember, yes/no ?

I've often asked why bulk AGW deniers & others who bark minor issues have nil idea how to factor in radiative forcing & nil capacity to do simple arithmetic ie algebra re moving terms to even start & qualify their objections, why do you think they don't have that capacity ?

Simple questions BartV, specific heat/radiative transfer, why both badly ignored by deniers ?

Arithmetic BartV ?

May 02, 2016
Further to my last post directed at BartV who claimed
Of course it is warming around lakes that have seen a huge city build up around it, like lake Suwa
Ok then, whats the greatest heat transfer method from the "huge city" to the lake water which I expect is below the city sky line ?

Is it convective, conductive or radiative ?

Because you also have to factor in sublimation of the ice as well as evaporation of the exposed liquid water, so unless there are pipes through the city carrying lake water around the air-conditioning plants and dumping that heat into the lake then...

How can the lake water get sizable amount of heat from the city please ?

May 02, 2016
Its Why Mars can reach >20C in summer even in the shade Despite its atmosphere being 1/100th of Earths Because its mostly CO2 ie >98% !!!

Mutterin' Mike, science charlatan and Bonobo "monkey" enthusiast, blabbers.
So, over 2000 times the CO2 on Mars and the temperature in Summer is 20C and yet Mutterin' Mike would have you believe that the 0.3% humans are adding to the 0.03% that is on Earth is catastrophic.
LOL

May 02, 2016
A climate change denier's sanity, such as it is, depends on the delusion of denial. Exactly like a religious believer. You cannot dispel the delusion with logic. Delusion is by its nature logic-proof.

I have engaged in delusion destruction in the past, and the results are bad. Without the delusion, the deluded descend into a stark and brutal insanity. If you thought they were strange or a little crazy before, just destroy the delusion. Then you see raving lunacy in its nakedness.

May 02, 2016
no explanation from you as to why your blog left off the first two data points.

The surest sign that you are in a cult, is that the rest of the ignorant indoctrinated would encourage you to remain in your ignorance. So, what a surprise you got 5s for that.
Your only escape is to educate yourself and perhaps your eyes would open to the fact that all the data is included and that the plot is generated by logic BUILT INTO Excel to output the MOVING AVERAGE.
https://www.youtu...pQcVSeoQ

May 02, 2016
2000 times the CO2 on Mars and the temperature in Summer is 20C
And yet another epic fail
did you forget about Lacis et al?

of course you did
because you never read it to begin with

read that study and you will understand

May 02, 2016
2000 times the CO2 on Mars and the temperature in Summer is 20C
And yet another epic fail
did you forget about Lacis et al?

of course you did
because you never read it to begin with

read that study and you will understand

LOL.
You obviously got one of your brainless Chicken Littles to read, but not explain it to you. You are not called Stumpid, for nothing.

May 03, 2016
antigoracle claims again
Mike, science charlatan and Bonobo "monkey" enthusiast, blabbers
Anything pertinent, any way specific, in any form suggesting I'm any sort of "science charlatan" at all, smartest top 3 examples please ?

In any case, not an enthusiast re Bonobo's as such, their behavior is illustrative for you of "do unto others" re "golden rule" offered as best practice by Greeks, embraced by jesus & clear from your behavior antigoracle you're less than the "monkey" you keep muttering about.

antigoracle claims
...Mike would have you believe that the 0.3% humans are adding to the 0.03% that is on Earth is catastrophic
Never said that, anyway over what period is catastrophic ?

Mentioned often & especially specifically to antigoracle, learn Radiative Transfer (GHG's IR vibrational states) then you'd be intelligently immune to mindless propaganda :/

& feel so much happier & free of being shown up yet again ..just.. so.. sad

Physics !

May 03, 2016
Nope - you big bag of rocks - look closely at the graph - and you will see Bob has conveniently left of the first two data points. And why would bob do that? and why would Bob decide to use a 7 year running average? - there is only about 120 data points - so why not run a linear trend? Can you say CHERRYPICKER?

Nope, you retard. I opened the file in Excel and confirmed your ignorance. I've provided you a link to a video to help you educate yourself but that was absolutely in vain.
Can you say RETARD?
Now you are on permanent ignore.

May 03, 2016
Mike-Skippy with his usual stew of bits and pieces of mania thinking blurts,,,
Blah, Blah, Blah, I am a GENIUS and your are a FOOL and to PROVE it I am going to write a bunch of gibberish that don't mean much but I am sure it's going to get me some up votes from MY tribe even if it sounds like I been UP all night doing DRUG (or skipping the ones the doctors said I should have.). Another BLAH to make sure I am getting noticed.)
Oh yeah? PROVE IT!

Physics !
PROVE IT your self Skippy.

How you like me now Skippy? Aren't you glad you got in my face and thought if would be a good idea play superior to me? Laissez les bons temps rouler (That's coonass for: You ain't seen nothing yet Cher.)


May 05, 2016
Uncle Ira (Ira) Fails quotes crap not written
Blah, Blah, Blah, I am a GENIUS and your are a FOOL and to PROVE it I am going to write a bunch of gibberish that don't mean much but I am sure it's going to get me some up votes from MY tribe even if it sounds like I been UP all night doing DRUG (or skipping the ones the doctors said I should have.)..
Your posts Evident re content/timing.

You're only here to manipulate a sense of Status :/

As long as people don't challenge, you'll meander facile attempts to garner more acceptance but, if anyone (& cares nil re votes) challenges your; bullying, cognition, stupidly faked quotes & old school tactics you become a pit bull exposing yourself, a flawed Science example :/

Ira demands
PROVE IT..
Long ago
http://www.curtin.edu.au
ID # 7602128

Ira veiled threat
..You ain't seen nothing yet Cher.)
Ugh, grow up please & learn Physics re articles & might appear less of an ass, Eg THz paper !

Don't you know better ?

May 05, 2016
@ Mike-Skippy. How you are Cher? Never mind, it was the rhetoric pleasentry, I can see you still in the manic histrionic phase. I am good, thanks for asking.

Uncle Ira (Ira) Fails quotes crap not written
Mike-Skippy fails to write something that makes any sense.

Your posts Evident re content/timing.
What?

You're only here to manipulate a sense of Status
What again?

As long as people don't challenge, you'll meander facile attempts to garner more acceptance but, if anyone (& cares nil re votes) challenges your; bullying, cognition, stupidly faked quotes & old school tactics you become a pit bull exposing yourself, a flawed Science example
Cher,,,, never mind,,, just deserves another "What?"

Long ago
In a land far away.

Ira veiled threat
..You ain't seen nothing yet Cher.)


Don't you know better ? Veiled? Maybe to somebody as weird as you. Nothing veiled about it Skippy.

May 05, 2016
@ Mike-Skippy. P.S. for you Cher.

Mike-Skippy fails,

BLAH,. BLAH, BLAH, Ira has me at the grand disadvantage because I can not write a sentence that makes any sense. He ignores me when I ask him to PROVE IT!! because my hysterical maniacal raving gets me confused before he can finish reading it and that is not fair because I am the Mike-Skippy and I require special rules.


Mike-Skippy, much as I would like to fool around with you, there is not much I can do until you learn to write a little better. It's kind of hard to argue with somebody if they can't say something to argue with.

Don't you know better ?
I know better than to go around demanding peoples to "PROVE IT" and "LEARN THE PHYSICS" when it is me that needs to go learn how to write something that somebody can understand. Your writing skills disqualify you for trading any kind of ideas, especially complicated stuffs like Ira-Skippy or even the not so complicates stuffs like science.

May 05, 2016
@Uncle Ira questions ?

1. Making fake quotes, what you think it tells us about you
2. Why you/Captain Stumpy claim the paper http://arxiv.org/...53v2.pdf is proof THz radiation is harmless
3. Why'd you imagine competency/investigative skills to read/appreciate Science papers
4. Can't you tell claim from evidence
Re Paper
5. Didn't you bother to get specialist advice so not to make false claims
6. Didn't you notice only a model - nil evidence or experimental method, useless as proof !
7. Didn't you notice caveat re heating in the abstract
8. Didn't you notice disclaimer, urging in conclusion
9. Didn't you bother to check key references that THz cannot be harmless
A. Would you expose loved ones, babies to THz beam, how long
&
B. Why any irrational blurt, can't you explain important points
C. Why'd you fail to consider misleading all readers on paper & safety
D. Can't you be specific since you confirmed an actual threat
E. What did you achieve
F. Any good ideas

May 05, 2016
@ Mikey-Skippy. That is a little better.

Yeah
Non
Maybe
Non
Non
What?
Non
Maybe again
Non
Yeah
Yeah
And another What?

Not necessarily in that order, but I am sure the couyon as brilliant as you are can sort it out. (And quit telling lies about what you think I said.)

Oh yeah, I almost forget. Writing stuffs that don't sound like a couyon who has been up all night doing some sort of drugs,, EPIC FAIL. It was a little better, but still the EPIC FAIL.

Never thought I would be the one who gets to tell anybody: GO LEARN ENGLISH AND GRAMMAR!!!!

May 05, 2016
"Never thought I would be the one who gets to tell anybody: GO LEARN ENGLISH AND GRAMMAR!!!!"
--------------------------------

Nobody else did, either. But you had to abandon your phony cajun caricature to do it, didn't you?

May 05, 2016
"Never thought I would be the one who gets to tell anybody: GO LEARN ENGLISH AND GRAMMAR!!!!"
--------------------------------

Nobody else did, either. But you had to abandon your phony cajun caricature to do it, didn't you?


Well somebody had to tell him, might as well be me since nobody else was willing to take the heat for doing it.

Oh yeah, I almost forget. You write that with the straight face or was you making one of your witty jokes? You trying the "phony" card, hooyee, that's rich. Alrighty-roo Cher.

This is where you get to come back chirping "I am real" and "you are SCARED of me because I am glam-Skippy with a lot of experience in foolishments". That one has been such the winner for you, you might try it out one more time.

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