Colossal volcanic eruption could destroy Japan, study says

October 23, 2014
Japan could be nearly destroyed by a massive volcanic eruption over the next century, putting almost all of the country's 127 million-strong population at risk, according to a new study

Japan could be nearly destroyed by a massive volcanic eruption over the next century, putting almost all of the country's 127 million-strong population at risk, according to a new study.

"It is not an overstatement to say that a colossal volcanic eruption would leave Japan extinct as a country," Kobe University earth sciences professor Yoshiyuki Tatsumi and associate professor Keiko Suzuki said in a study publicly released on Wednesday.

The experts said they analysed the scale and frequency of in the archipelago nation over the past 120,000 years and calculated that the odds of a devastating eruption at about one percent over the next 100 years.

The chance of a major earthquake striking the city of Kobe within 30 years was estimated at about one percent just a day before a 7.2-magnitude quake destroyed the Japanese port city in 1995, killing 6,400 people and injuring nearly 4,400 others, the study noted.

"Therefore, it would be no surprise if such a colossal eruption occurs at any moment," it added.

The new research comes weeks after Japan's Mount Ontake erupted without warning—killing 57 people and leaving at least six others missing in the country's deadliest volcanic eruption in almost 90 years.

The Kobe University researchers said their study was critical because Japan is home to about seven percent of the volcanoes that have erupted over the past 10,000 years.

A disaster on the southernmost main island of Kyushu, which has been struck by seven massive eruptions over the past 120,000 years, would see an area with seven million people buried by flows of lava and molten rock in just two hours, they said.

Volcanic ash would also be carried by westerly winds toward the main island of Honshu, making almost all of the country "unliveable" as it strangled infrastructure, including key transport systems, they said.

It would be "hopeless" trying to save about 120 million living in major cities and towns across Honshu, the study said.

This prediction was based on geological findings from the eruption of a gigantic crater, 23 kilometres (14 miles) across, in southern Kyushu about 28,000 years ago.

The study called for new technology to accurately grasp the state of "magma reservoirs" which are spread across the earth's crust in layers a few kilometres deep.

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2.2 / 5 (9) Oct 23, 2014
This prediction was based on geological findings from the eruption of a gigantic crater, 23 kilometres (14 miles) across, in southern Kyushu about 28,000 years ago.

Now, talk about the "Little-big-ice age" this would have caused.

In order to save and diversify the gene pool, I would suggest the Japanese people start immigrating to other nations they haven't traditionally immigrated to.

Buy land from other countries and move some of your people there in micro-colonies so that if such a disaster ever happens, at least some of your own genetic lineage survives in tact with enough diversity to be a stable population.

Needs to be in more places than just the west coast of the U.S. too, because the volcanic winter from such a large eruption would probably negatively effect the Pacific Coast for a few years as well. I'd imagine Alaska, Canada, and Washington State would be buried in Ash initially too, and then severe snow falls following, depending on time of year
2 / 5 (8) Oct 23, 2014
See, if you block the Sun over the U.S. west coast and the Pacific, air temps in the stratosphere and upper troposphere fall, but there is all that heat in the ocean....convection would become insane and you'd have significant problems as low pressure systems began to move on shore...feet of snow at a time...feet of rain at a time in mountainous terrain....

We're talking the worst flooding and ice disasters you could imagine, short of "The Day After Tomorrow".

It would probably be almost as bad for the U.S. as a VEI 8 Yellowstone eruption, just it would be worse for the west coast and less bad for the central and eastern U.S.

They should model it though, it'd be interesting to see what a computer simulation with climate level and weather level modeling would spit out: Probably arc-storms and hybrid/sub-tropical storms coming off the E.Pac into California and Oregon.

The crater they describe is an "Apocalyptic" (VEI8), not "Colossal"(VEI6).
Different events?
1.9 / 5 (9) Oct 23, 2014
The U.S. economy would take a hard hit anyway, even without weather effects, because of the loss of trade in automobile and parts sales, and especially technology trade.

I would not want to see this happen in real life for so many reasons...
1.5 / 5 (8) Oct 23, 2014
Saves them dying from the radiation Fukushima is still pumping out. So either way, japan is finished..
3 / 5 (2) Oct 23, 2014
Well, good morning to you too!
4 / 5 (5) Oct 23, 2014
Yeah, and between the eruption and all that radiation, Godzilla is bound to wake up really pissed off!
3 / 5 (4) Oct 24, 2014
more fear mongering. endless these days. everybody is selling their own vision of the 'end'. people are getting desperate for alternative narratives.

the 'science' is sounding more and more messianic every day.
5 / 5 (3) Oct 24, 2014
In New Zealand, we have a large lake (Taupo, 616 square kilometres). It is part of the crater left when the volcano underneath exploded 26,500 years ago. There was 18 cm of ash 1,000km away.
1 / 5 (3) Oct 24, 2014
Hard to take this sort of sensationalist claim as anything more than just that when the article claims westerly winds would carry ash to Honshu. Every map I lay my hands on suggests you would need a southerly wind for ash to reach Honshu because it sits NORTH of Kyushu. (OK, north-east, but you get the point).
Oct 24, 2014
This comment has been removed by a moderator.
5 / 5 (4) Oct 24, 2014
In order to save and diversify the gene pool, I would suggest the Japanese people start immigrating to other nations they haven't traditionally immigrated to.

Given the prospect of a disaster that would kill a number of people that is difficult to grasp, worrying about the diversity of the gene pool is peculiar.

To allay your concerns, there's something in excess of 600000 Japanese living outside the country now, which ought to be enough for your gene pool.
2.3 / 5 (3) Oct 25, 2014
funny as this total nonsense 'science' of doomsday predictionism is just speculation.
meanwhile the iceland twin volcanoes are still furiously streaming lava for over 6 weeks but no one in the news really cares. it's not a 'catastrophe' and cannot easily be catastrophized. furthermore, it's spewing a shit ton of sulfur gas into the atmosphere. if it keeps going endlessly at this rate------then you're going to have a lot of acid rain and aerosolized particles in the northern hemisphere, possibly causing a cooler than usual climate for a afew years, maybe resulting in a summer crop failure in 2015.

highly unlikely----but that is the only actual thing that cause mass crop failures across all of northern europe in the last few hundred years---cold/wet summers.
1 / 5 (1) Oct 26, 2014
Colossal (Put Volcano here) eruption could destroy (Put country here), history says.
not rated yet Oct 26, 2014
Hope the japanese will not meet the same racism they have at home...
I dont know how widespread it is, but its definately time to respect others.
Only retards are bigots.

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