Warming 'pause' gives thought for scientists, sceptics

Remains of dead trees, due to rising sea levels, are pictured on May 7, 2013, on the beach in northern Senegal
Remains of dead trees, due to rising sea levels, are pictured on May 7, 2013, on the beach in northern Senegal.

A slowdown in warming that has provided fuel for climate sceptics is one of the thorniest issues in a report to be issued by UN experts on Friday.

Over the past 15 years, the world's average surface temperature rose far slower than many have predicted.

According to projections, should go in lockstep with the ever-rising curve of heat-trapping .

But in recent years, warming has lagged. So, where has the missing heat gone?

For climate , the answer is clear. Either the computer models used to project temperature rise are flawed, or man-made global warming is just a green scam, they say.

The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will confirm warming has recently slowed.

The document, being debated line-by-line in Stockholm, is the first volume of a vast trilogy that will be released by the Nobel-winning group over the coming months, and only its fifth overview in a quarter of a century.

Over the past 50 years, the mean global temperature rise was 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.2 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, slowing to an average 0.05 C (0.09 F) per decade over the past 15 years.

Half of the could be attributed to , whose particles reflect sunlight, and a bigger-than expected drop in heat from the Sun's changing activity cycle, said a summary of the report.

The other half is attributed to a "cooling contribution from internal variability".

Laurent Terray with the French computer modelling agency Cerfacs said the term is used to explain a shift in the way heat is distributed between land, sea and air.

Still unclear is what causes the variation or determines its duration.

"We know that this kind of episode, of a decadal length or thereabouts, can occur once or twice a century," said Terray.

Swedish Environment Minister Lena Ek, Thomas Stocker and Dahe Qin of the IPCC in Stockholm, Sweden, September 23, 2013
Swedish Environment Minister Lena Ek, Thomas Stocker and Dahe Qin of the IPCC in Stockholm, Sweden, September 23, 2013.

"If it (the present one) continues for two more decades, we may start to think that the computer models are underestimating internal variability."

New research by Britain's Met Office suggests the "missing" heat, or some of it, is being transferred from the ocean surface to the deeps.

Temperatures at depths below 3,000 metres (10,000 feet) have been rising since the 1990s, implying a source of heat-trapping today will contribute to warming tomorrow.

Governments, which have the right to vet and amend the summary but not the main text on which it is based, are looking with concern at the brief section on the warming pause.

This reflects jitters after the IPCC's last big report in 2007 was shown to contain several background errors, denting the agency's credibility.

The panel's main conclusions were not affected but the mistakes were a windfall for sceptics.

Together with the 2008 financial crisis and the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen UN climate summit, this almost sent global warming into political limbo.

In comments of the IPCC summary draft, China, India and Norway want to know why the section dealing with the warming pause fails to refer to the role of the deep ocean.

Others complain the text is dangerous gobbledegook.

"This is an example of providing a bunch of numbers, then leave them up in the air without a concrete conclusion," says an angry US objection seen by AFP.

"(...) [T]he way it is written, it may set itself up for misleading conclusions."

A massive ash clouds rise from the crater of the Mount Sinabung volcano during a fresh eruption on September 17, 2013
A massive ash clouds rise from the crater of the Mount Sinabung volcano during a fresh eruption on September 17, 2013.

Some countries take the opposite line.

Hungary says an anomaly that has lasted 15 years—a blink of an eye on the geological timescale—is too short and laden with unknowns to even rate a mention.

The controversy touches on the sensitive issue of scientific uncertainty.

To scientists, admitting to uncertainty is not merely honest but entirely legitimate—something to be acknowledged and debated, to be rejected or overcome.

But admitting to uncertainty is often misunderstood by the outside world and, says Andreas Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) near Berlin, exploited by sceptics.

"They can't stop physical reality, but they are slowing down" tougher action on carbon emissions, he said in a phone interview.

Alden Meyer, with the US environment group the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), urged the IPCC draft to spell out what is known about the warming pause.

"Otherwise, the denialists will claim that the IPCC's silence on this issue shows that global warming isn't as serious as scientists thought," he said in an email.

"The recent slowdown in temperature increases isn't unprecedented, and should be seen as a 'speed bump' on the way to a warmer world."

Explore further

Climate report struggles with temperature quirks (Update)

© 2013 AFP

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Sep 24, 2013
Yet the AGW Chicken Littles choose to bury their heads in the snow and remain ignorant.

Sep 24, 2013
So lets see if @Anti's "Chicken" logic makes sense; He would need to show,

We don't know enough about the climate system, so there could have been some magical climate force that did cause a previous spike, just like today's

CO2 is not causing the current warming, even though they can't find an alternative explanation (and this is presumably supported by the fact that magical, invisible past spikes in warming do, in fact, maybe-exist).

CO2 would not cause any warming, even though our understanding of physics, the atmosphere, and evidence of past climates all show definitively that it would.

The last point is something the deniers do not seem to get. CO2 is a measured and know greenhouse gas, it's chemistry and physics properties are well known. There is no magic in global warming theory or observation. So what *appears* to be flattening of temperature rise over the past 15 years, IMHO is BS and a distraction from the future calamity of AGW!

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