New model: Coastline erosion due to sea level rise greater than previously thought

A new model allows researchers at UNESCO-IHE, Delft University of Technology and Deltares to much more accurately predict coastline erosion due to rising sea levels. It would appear that the effects of coastline erosion as a result of rising sea-level rise in the vicinity of inlets, such as river estuaries, have until now been dramatically underestimated. The scientists have published their research in the online edition of Nature Climate Change on Sept. 2, 2012.

The anticipated rise in sea levels due to will result in coastlines receding worldwide through erosion. This is a known phenomenon that can in principle be calculated and predicted based on a given sea-level rise, by means of the so-called Bruun effect. However, things are a little more complicated when it comes to coastlines in the vicinity of inlets, such as river mouths, and estuaries. These places are affected by other factors, such as changes in rainfall due to climate change, and certain compensating effects (basin infilling).

Until now, science has lacked a model that takes all these effects into account in the calculations of a coastline's future development, even though a demand for this existed among engineers, and planners. The majority of coastline only took the Bruun effect into consideration.

Scientist Rosh Ranasinghe, employed as associate professor at TU Delft and at UNESCO-IHE, has now succeeded in developing a new model that is able to produce much more accurate prognoses. He did so together with researchers of the faculty of Civil Engineering and at TU Delft, UNESCO-IHE and knowledge institution Deltares. With the model, it is possible to make quickly – within a few minutes – of how the coastline will develop in the vicinity of inlets as a result of .

The new model was in turn applied to four different and representative coastal areas (in Vietnam and Australia). The research showed that only 25 to 50 per cent of anticipated coastline change in these areas can be predicted using the Bruun effect. The other processes that occur in the vicinity of inlets are of at least equal importance and coastline change in these areas as a result of rising sea levels has until now been strongly underestimated.

This new model makes it possible to make significantly improved prognoses of coastline erosion due to a rise in sea-levels. Coastal management projects that are being launched shortly will be able to benefit from this model, which means it can make a valuable contribution to coastal management and planning in practice.

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More information: 'Climate-change impact assessment for inlet-interrupted coastlines' by Roshanka Ranasinghe(1,2,3*), Trang Minh Duong(1,3), Stefan Uhlenbrook(1,2), Dano Roelvink(1,2) and Marcel Stive(2), DOI 10.1038/nclimate1664
Journal information: Nature Climate Change

Citation: New model: Coastline erosion due to sea level rise greater than previously thought (2012, September 4) retrieved 26 June 2019 from
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Sep 04, 2012
"The anticipated rise in sea levels".

Still waiting ... for 60 years.

Sep 04, 2012
See also this from NOAA, http://www.ncdc.n...icators/

Since 1993, global sea level has risen at an accelerating rate of around 3.5 mm/year. Much of the sea level rise to date is a result of increasing heat of the ocean causing it to expand. It is expected that melting land ice (e.g. from Greenland and mountain glaciers) will play a more significant role in contributing to future sea level rise.

.35 cm per yr = about 1.5 in. per decade, 15 in per century.

Tide Gauges suggest slight deceleration of the already low 1.7mm per year.


Sep 04, 2012
You appear to be the only person left waiting Tard Boy...


Hilarious. The same straight line from 1930 on. No change in 80 years.

Kind of demolishes global warming doesn't it?

Sep 04, 2012
"Kind of demolishes global warming doesn't it?"

It blows AGW theory, and all the little cultists members right out the f**king water. Sea levels have been rising for the last 80 years - we can all go to bed tonight and sleep well - knowing that there is no global warming - sea levels have been rising for 80 years (repitition added for sarcastic emphasis).

All those hours I have spent debating with Parker - thinking maybe it was making me a better person - I will never get that time back.......

Sea Level has been rising for 20,000 years.


The issue is that AGW cult leaders claim CO2 only affected climate since about 1950. If sea level has risen the same amount from 1930 on, it has nothing to do with CO2.

AGW is a fraud. Claims of catastrophic sea level are a sick joke.

Sep 04, 2012
"Sea Level has been rising for 20,000 years." But not at a constant rate.

NOAA says sea level is barely rising.


Remember, to rise 1 meter (AGW alarmist prediction) in 100 years that would be 10mm per year. Instead it is rising around 0 - 3mm per year, as it always has done for the last 100 years.

Parker started fights on every one of the articles

I disagree with articles. A new thought-crime according to the cult.

The cult wishes no one to ever disagree with them.

"Results indicate that the benches were formed during mid to late Holocene sea-level transgressions, reaching a maximum highstand level of 2 m above present at about 4,000 years ago."


Sea Level is 2000mm lower than it was 4,000 years ago.

Sep 05, 2012
"NOAA says sea level is barely rising."

From your own web site - talk about clueless.

"The mean sea level (MSL) trends measured by tide gauges that are presented on this web site are local relative MSL trends as opposed to the global sea level trend."

Yes. Sea Level is local. If most local sea level rise is 0 to 3 mm then global has to be 0 - 3 mm.


Unless AGW has its own twisted math to go with its twisted logic!

Sep 05, 2012
"Yes. Sea Level is local. If most local sea level rise is 0 to 3 mm then global has to be 0 - 3 mm."

When I took math 1.7 mm /- .5 mm fitted within the range of 0 - 3mm perfectly.

But it is not 10mm per year, the alarmist prediction.

And it has not accelerated over the last 100 years.

Sea Level rise has nothing to do with CO2.

Sep 05, 2012
NotParker needs to look at the actual responses to the objectionable paper he cited:


Here's an enlightening look (also linked from the rebuttal above) at how bad analysis and poor understanding of statistics can lead one to incorrect findings and the wrong conclusions:

Reminds me of the "arguments" that the atmosphere stopped warming since 1998 (pick the most ridiculous high outlier in recent times, then use it as a touchstone to construct trendlines...)

Sep 05, 2012
"And it has not accelerated over the last 100 years.

Sea Level rise has nothing to do with CO2."

Could you tell us why you have better facts than National Geographic?

What references do they provide for their "facts"?

Keep fooling yourselves.

Sep 06, 2012
ParkerTard spends his days listening to voices in his head telling him that he must fight a holy war against science and reason.

"Do you see how stupid you look?" = dir

At this point he barely knows his own name.

Sep 10, 2012
There is good news for ParkerTard

Today arctic ice area did NOT reach a new minimum, but in fact increased by 0.07 million square kilometers.

If this growth in ice cover continues at that rate for the next 1000 years then the entire surface of the Earth and the Sun will be covered in a thick layer of ice thus proving that the earth and the rest of the universe is actually cooling just as ParkerTard and the other QuackTard denialists have claimed for years.

Kaus dey knows dem sciencie stuff.

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