All-white jury pools convict black defendants 16 percent more often than whites

April 20, 2012 By Steve Hartsoe

Juries formed from all-white jury pools in Florida convicted black defendants 16 percent more often than white defendants, a gap that was nearly eliminated when at least one member of the jury pool was black, according to a Duke University-led study.  

The researchers examined more than 700 non-capital felony criminal cases in Sarasota and Lake counties from 2000-2010 and looked at the effects of the age, race and gender of jury pools on conviction rates.  

The jury pool typically consisted of 27 members selected from eligible residents in the two counties. From this group, attorneys chose six seated jurors plus alternates.

"I think this is the first strong and convincing evidence that the racial composition of the jury pool actually has a major effect on trial outcomes," said senior author Patrick Bayer, chairman of Duke's Economics Department.

"Our Sixth Amendment right to a trial by a fair and impartial jury of our peers is a bedrock of the criminal justice system in the U.S., and yet, despite the importance of that right, there's been very little systematic analysis of how the composition of juries actually affects trial outcomes, how the rules that we have in place for selecting juries impact those outcomes," Bayer said.

The study, posted Tuesday on the Quarterly Journal of Economics (, focused on how conviction rates varied with the composition of the jury pool, which is randomly determined by which eligible residents are called for jury duty that day.

"The idea is to treat the jury pool  as a natural experiment -- some defendants randomly draw a jury pool that includes some black members while others face a jury seated from an all-white jury pool," Bayer said.

Among the key findings:

-- In cases with no blacks in the jury pool, blacks were convicted 81 percent of the time, and whites were convicted 66 percent of the time. The estimated difference in conviction rates rises to 16 percent when the authors controlled for the age and gender of the jury and the year and county in which the trial took place.

-- When the jury pool included at least one black person, the conviction rates were nearly identical: 71 percent for black defendants, 73 percent for whites.

-- About 40 percent of the jury pools they examined had no black members and most of the others had one or two black members.

-- When blacks were in the jury pool, they were slightly more likely to be seated on a jury than whites. The eligible jury population in these counties was less than 5 percent black.

Bayer said they chose data from Sarasota and Lake counties because these jurisdictions provide more detailed information from court trials than do most other jurisdictions throughout the country.

The researchers said they wanted to know how the racial make-up of a jury pool affects the outcome of a trial because existing empirical literature on the subject was "sparse" and subject to a number of limitations. They also cited anecdotal evidence from trials that has raised questions about fairness, and noted the proportion of incarcerated blacks is almost four times the proportion of blacks in the general population.

Studies based on experimental evidence from "mock" trials are limited in part because the stakes are far lower than for real trials, they said. Studies that examine the correlation of a seated jury's race and related trial results are problematic because seated jurors are not selected at random from a set of people on the jury pool, they said.

In most criminal trials in the United States, prosecutors and defense attorneys can exclude potential jurors without explanation through a process called peremptory challenge. So even if the initial jury pool is randomly drawn, the nature of the charges, the evidence and the attributes of the defendant can all influence the composition of the seated jury.

Excluding potential jurors based on race is illegal; Bayer said the data they examined did not show any misconduct by attorneys. The findings imply that the application of criminal justice is "highly uneven," Bayer said, because conviction rates vary substantially with random variation in the racial composition of the jury pool.

"Simply put, the luck of the draw on the racial composition of the jury pool has a lot to do with whether someone is convicted and that raises obvious concerns about the fairness of our criminal justice system," Bayer said.

"I think our study points to the need for a lot more analysis, and a lot more transparency in collecting data and analyzing it in jurisdictions throughout the country," Bayer said.

Other researchers for the study, "The Impact of Race in Criminal Trials," were Shamena Anwar, an assistant professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, and Randi Hjalmarsson, an associate professor of economics at Queen Mary, University of London. 

Explore further: Juries not as racially diverse as the communities from which they are drawn

More information: "The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials,"Patrick Bayer, et al.Quarterly Journal of Economics. DOI 10.1093/QJE/QJS014.

Related Stories

How to get more Jurors to the courthouse

March 14, 2012

Citizens inclined to ignore a jury duty summons are more likely to respond when reminded that failure to appear could result in fines or jail time, according to a UC Riverside study.

Recommended for you

Scientists see order in complex patterns of river deltas

October 19, 2017

River deltas, with their intricate networks of waterways, coastal barrier islands, wetlands and estuaries, often appear to have been formed by random processes, but scientists at the University of California, Irvine and other ...

Fatty bird gland preserved over 48 million years

October 18, 2017

(—A team of researchers from the U.S., Ireland, Germany and the U.K. has found evidence of preservation of a fatty oil gland from a 48-million-year-old fossilized bird. In their paper published in Proceedings of ...

Waiting periods reduce deaths from guns, study suggests

October 17, 2017

(—A trio of researchers with Harvard Business School has found evidence that they claim shows gun deaths decline when states enact waiting period laws. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy ...


Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

2.5 / 5 (11) Apr 20, 2012
Seems like the lawyers for the defense should object to an all white jury if their client/s are black.
1 / 5 (7) Apr 21, 2012
And assuming that the difference is statistically significant and their client is white, lawyers should try get rid of all blacks from the jury. (66% vs. 73%)

Damn it... I've got an annoying feeling that this study would not influence gov policy, but only defensive strategies.
3.3 / 5 (3) Apr 21, 2012
Did they control for the strength of the prosecution's case? Did they control for the skill of the defense attorney?
1.6 / 5 (7) Apr 21, 2012
Does an all black jury produce the same results for white defendants?
Code warrior is correct, what assessment was made of the strength of defence and prosecution cases. What differences were there in the cases before all white juries and juries that included blacks.
Do you get similar results with other racial background cases.
Finaly isn't it about time that Americans all simply became Americans, instead of white Americans, black Americans, hispanic Americans etc., etc.
Was this research racially motivated with an aim of creating greater racial division within the USA
If there is even the slightest hint of this then we need to look at who funded it and especially why.
1 / 5 (7) Apr 21, 2012
"Does an all black jury produce the same results for white defendants?"

Excellent question. I was wondering about that, too. However, an all black jury would be very difficult to find, I assume.

"Did they control for the strength of the prosecution's case? Did they control for the skill of the defense attorney?"

Since they examined more than 700 cases, I think that it is reasonable to assume that such differences would be "smoothed out" by the large sample pool. Besides, quantifying the strength of a prosecution's case is very difficult.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.