Airline passengers in developing countries face 13 times crash risk as US: study

Sep 01, 2010

Passengers who fly in Developing World countries face 13 times the risk of being killed in an air accident as passengers in the First World. The more economically advanced countries in the Developing World have better overall safety records than the others, but even their death risk per flight is seven times as high as that in First World countries.

These statistics are among the findings in the new study Cross National Differences in Aviation Safety Records by Arnold Barnett, which appears in the current issue of Transportation Science, a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). Barnett is a Professor of Operations Research at MIT's Sloan School of Management and a long-term researcher on .

Using worldwide air-safety data, Prof. Barnett calculated that, over 2000-07, the chance of dying on a scheduled flight in a First World nation like the U.S., Japan, or Ireland was 1 in 14 million (this statistic considers propeller planes as well as jets). At that rate, a passenger who took one flight every day would on average go 38,000 years before succumbing to a fatal accident. On the airlines of economically advancing countries in the such as Taiwan, India, and Brazil, the death risk per flight was 1 in 2 million. In less economically-advanced Developing-World countries, the per flight was 1 in 800,000. Prof. Barnett calculates that the risk differences in this three-group model "are not statistically significant within groups, but are highly significant across groups."

All these statistics reflect major advances in safety in the last decade, and Prof. Barnett points out that the distinction he makes is "between safe and very safe, and not between safe and dangerous." Indeed, Prof. Barnett notes that "it is not uncommon for a month to pass without any fatal passenger-jet crashes anywhere in the world."

While the study ends in 2007, the patterns it depicts continue to persist. So far in 2010, there have been eight fatal accidents on scheduled passenger flights. All eight of them occurred in the Developing World.

This video is not supported by your browser at this time.
A podcast interview with Prof. Barnett about this study.

Prof. Barnett questioned why the economically-advancing countries in the Developing World did not have safety records closer to those in the First World, given that they approach First-World standards in life expectancy and per capita income. He cites research that indicates that, in terms of deference to authority and "individualism," the economically advancing Developing-World countries are on average far from those in the First World but almost identical to other Developing-World countries. Prof. Barnett concedes that he should "not get too caught up in speculation," but notes that one possible explanation for why the economically-advancing countries did not fare better is that "their economic shift towards the First World has not been accompanied by a corresponding cultural shift."

Explore further: Can science eliminate extreme poverty?

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

New report estimates 12 million cancer deaths worldwide

Dec 17, 2007

A new American Cancer Society report estimates that there will be over 12 million new cancer cases and 7.6 million cancer deaths (about 20,000 cancer deaths a day) worldwide in 2007. The estimate comes from the first-ever ...

Recommended for you

Can science eliminate extreme poverty?

Apr 16, 2014

Science has often come to the rescue when it comes to the world's big problems, be it the Green Revolution that helped avoid mass starvation or the small pox vaccine that eradicated the disease. There is ...

Japan stem cell body splashes cash on luxury furniture

Apr 14, 2014

A publicly-funded research institute in Japan, already embattled after accusing one of its own stem cell scientists of faking data, has spent tens of thousands of dollars on designer Italian furniture, reportedly to use up ...

User comments : 0

More news stories

Can new understanding avert tragedy?

As a boy growing up in Syracuse, NY, Sol Hsiang ran an experiment for a school project testing whether plants grow better sprinkled with water vs orange juice. Today, 20 years later, he applies complex statistical ...

Crowd-sourcing Britain's Bronze Age

A new joint project by the British Museum and the UCL Institute of Archaeology is seeking online contributions from members of the public to enhance a major British Bronze Age archive and artefact collection.

Roman dig 'transforms understanding' of ancient port

(Phys.org) —Researchers from the universities of Cambridge and Southampton have discovered a new section of the boundary wall of the ancient Roman port of Ostia, proving the city was much larger than previously ...

Net neutrality balancing act

Researchers in Italy, writing in the International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management have demonstrated that net neutrality benefits content creator and consumers without compromising provider innovation nor pr ...