Study: Shrinking glaciers to spark food shortages

Jun 10, 2010 By MICHAEL CASEY , AP Environmental Writer

(AP) -- Nearly 60 million people living around the Himalayas will suffer food shortages in the coming decades as glaciers shrink and the water sources for crops dry up, a study said Thursday.

But Dutch scientists writing in the journal Science concluded the impact would be much less than previously estimated a few years ago by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on . The U.N. report in 2007 warned that hundred of millions of people were at risk from disappearing glaciers.

The reason for the discrepancy, scientists said, is that some basins surrounding the depend more on rainfall than melting glaciers for their sources.

Those that do count heavily on glaciers like the Indus, Ganges and Brahamaputra basins in South Asia could see their decline by as much as 19.6 percent by 2050. China's Yellow River basin , in contrast, would see a 9.5 percent increase precipitation as monsoon patterns change due to the .

"We show that it's only a certain areas that will be effected," said Utrecht University Hydrology Prof. Marc Bierkens, who along with Walter Immerzee and Ludovicus van Beek conducted the study. "The amount of people effected is still large. Every person is one too many but its much less than was first anticipated."

The study is one of the first to examine the impact of shrinking glaciers on the Himalayan river basins. It will likely further fuel the debate on the degree that climate change will devastate the river basins that are mostly located in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and China.

Scientists for the most part agree glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate as temperatures increase. Most scientists tie that warming directly to higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

Some glaciers, such as in the Himalayas, could hold out for centuries in a warmer world. But more than 90 percent of worldwide are in retreat, with major losses already seen across much of Alaska, the Alps, the Andes and numerous other ranges, according to researchers in the United States and Europe.

Some scientists have come under fire for the 2007 U.N. report, which includes several errors that suggested the Himalayas could disappear by 2035, hundreds of years earlier than data actual indicates. The mistake - the 2350 apparently was transposed as 2035 - opened the door for attacks by climate change skeptics.

The findings by the Dutch team in Science were greeted with caution with glacial experts who did not take part in the research. They said the uncertainties and lack of data for the region makes it difficult to say what will happen in the next few decades to the water supply.

Others like Zhongqin Li, director of the Tianshan Glaciological Station in China, said the study omitted several other key basins in central Asia and northwest China which will be hit hard by the loss of water from .

Still, several of these outside researchers said the findings should reaffirm concerns that the region will suffer due to climate change, exasperating already existing concerns such as overpopulation, poverty, pollution and weakening monsoon rains in parts of South Asia.

"The paper teaches us there's lot of uncertainty in the future water supply of Asia and within the realm of plausibility are scenarios that may give us concern," said Casey Brown, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Massachusetts.

"At present, we know that water concerns are already a certainty - the large and growing populations and high dependence on irrigated agriculture which makes the region vulnerable to present climate variability," he said.

"This paper is additional motivation to address these present concerns through wise investments in better management of water resources in the region, which for me means forecasts, incentives, efficiency."

Birkens and his fellow researchers said governments in the region should adapt to the projected water shortages by shifting to crops that use less water, engaging in better irrigation practices and building more and larger facilities to store water for extended periods of time.

"We estimate that the food security of 4.5 percent of the total population will be threatened as a result of reduce water availability," the researchers wrote. "The strong need for prioritizing adaptation options and further increasing water productivity is therefore eminent."

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User comments : 9

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Shootist
1 / 5 (3) Jun 10, 2010
Warmer times have always, always been kinder times for humans.

Cold? Not so much.
Quantum_Conundrum
1 / 5 (4) Jun 10, 2010
Like I said in reply to the other article on the droughts in the far east: make desalinization plants and aqueducts.

If the U.S. and canada can make the Alaska pipeline, a water-works system should be a cakewalk.
ChiRaven
1 / 5 (5) Jun 10, 2010
Now hold on there just a minute. Let me get this straight. They're saying that INCREASED melting of the glaciers will lead to LESS water in the river basins that the glaciers feed. How does that work again? They've already admitted that the glaciers are not in any immediate danger of disappearing (unless you consider 2350 "immediate"). So what's the deal here?
Quantum_Conundrum
1 / 5 (6) Jun 10, 2010
ChiRaven:

Now come on. Dontcha know tha dummycrats gotta make money off that AGW scare even after it's been totally debunked.
PinkElephant
5 / 5 (5) Jun 10, 2010
@ChiRaven,

Let's say community A gets its water year-round from glacier melt on mountain B. Glacier melts off in the summer, and replenishes in the winter. Now mountain B loses the glacier. Result: in the winter, you get floods of water coming down the mountain; in the summer you get bupkis.

Of course the glacier doesn't just abruptly go from 100% one year to 0% the next. Instead, there's a smooth curve, on average, transitioning from the initial state to final state. Means, over time ever more winter flooding, and ever less summer melt-water.
Sancho
1 / 5 (1) Jun 11, 2010
The report is actually good news --- much lower rate of starvation predicted --- yet the headline is more of the same old booga-booga. Hello?
Quantum_Conundrum
1 / 5 (1) Jun 11, 2010
Pinkelephant:

That's why make dams in the valleys and catch the water for later use. Ends up the same amount of water either way.
frenchie
5 / 5 (1) Jun 11, 2010
For all of you wize know-it-all, glacier shrinking directly affects food and water supply. As for the "dam fixes everything," not all water is above the earth's surface (in a river). In fact, a large majority of water coming from seasonal melt travels underground.

Finally, yes more melting of a glacier = Less water in the river, because the size of the glacier has been reduced and thus its seasonal melt is smaller.

People astound me in their stupidity on these forums
Caliban
1 / 5 (2) Jun 11, 2010
@frenchie,

Agreed. Add also that all the above comments are based on the assumption that annual precipitation remains constant- which is by no means assured.

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