# Scientist's formula backs Germany to win soccer World Cup

##### Apr 21, 2010

A university professor has developed a mathematical formula which, he claims, shows Germany will win the 2010 World Cup in South Africa this June.

Germany face Australia, Serbia and Ghana in Group D, but Metin Tolan, a physic professor at the University of Dortmund, is convinced German captain Michael Ballack will be lifting the World Cup following the final on July 11.

The scientist has written a formula based on trigonometry which analyses all Germany's results from previous World Cups and predicts a winner for this year's tournament.

Having won the World Cup three times, in 1954, 1974 and 1990, Germany's average finishing place at previous tournaments is 3.7 and Tolan says his formula shows this will be Germany's year to lift the trophy.

"It is very simple, all my calculations prove this," he told Germany magazine "Zeit Wissen".

"The last time we won the World Cup was back in 1990 and there have been four tournaments since," explained Tolan.

"The average finishing place of the Germany team is 3.7 and the German team wins the title every fourth or fifth World Cup.

"Nobody can beat us this year and you can already put the champagne on ice."

Tolan already predicted Germany would win the last World Cup, which they hosted in 2006, but unfortunately for his theory, the home nation was beaten by eventual winners Italy in the semi-finals.

"My formula gave the winner for the following World Cup, this is why it works this time for sure," he explained undeterred after Jurgen Klinsmann's side beat Portugal 3-1 to finish third at the last World Cup.

But Tolan's equations could also help Germany's arch-rivals England, who were dumped out of the last after being beaten on penalties by Portugal, as Fabio Capello's side have a history of struggling with spot-kicks.

"The weakest kicker should take the first penalty, then the second-weakest and so on," he said.

"Then you have the greatest chance of scoring as many goals as possible."

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