Top political scientists predict outcome of the 2012 presidential election

Sep 24, 2012

Twenty eminent election forecasters explain their forecasting models and offer their predictions for the 2012 US presidential election, in PS: Political Science and Politics, published by Cambridge University Press for the American Political Science Association.

With a range of forecasting models and experts, the forecasts vary, but none are predicting a big win either way; yet another indication that 2012 is shaping up to be another very close race.

Five models predict a modest to close plurality for (though three of these are on the cusp of predicting a toss up), five predict a modest to close victory for , and three regard the election as a toss up. The forecasts range from predicting a 53.8% vote for Obama to a 53.1% vote for Romney.

Editor of the journal's forecasting symposium, James Campbell, said: "It is difficult to say exactly why the forecasts vary as much as they do this year, but it appears that those that rely more on the existing holder of office and early public opinion indicators tilted more toward Obama, while those that depend more on objective tipped toward Romney."

The thirteen forecasts and introduction will be published in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, scheduled for release in late September. Articles will be available online, for free, for a limited time at http:// journals.cambridge.org/psc.

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User comments : 11

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Argiod
1 / 5 (2) Sep 24, 2012
From what I can see; there is nothing objective about this Presidential race.
rwinners
1 / 5 (1) Sep 24, 2012
Well, Political Science is an Art, after all.
lairdwilcox
1 / 5 (1) Sep 24, 2012
The social consequences of predicting an election in Romney's favor, and against Barack Obama, are not a small thing in an academic environment. "He's the guy who says that Romney will win!" can be a daunting burden on some campuses. For this reason I predict that this may have biased the findings of some of these people and would add a few points to Romney in each of their evaluations. However, I do acknowledge that it's going to be close and either candidate could win.
obama_socks
1 / 5 (8) Sep 24, 2012
".....but it appears that those that rely more on the existing holder of office and early public opinion indicators tilted more toward Obama, while those that depend more on objective economic variables tipped toward Romney." -from the article-

The part that says, 'those that rely more on the existing holder of office', fairly well explains the motivations of those in favor of Obama...whether as partial or full explanation. It's been said on radio and TV that almost half of the population in the U.S. are not paying Federal income taxes, and many of them are the chronically unemployed, it's true. But the vast majority who don't pay Federal income taxes at all are those who are on the dole, and it is they who heavily rely on Obama to continue their "easy rider" status at the expense of those who are working and earning their pay and paying income taxes. The "lazy bums" were ecstatic when Obama abolished the "look for work" rule as a condition for receiving welfare checks. They love it
rwinners
1 / 5 (1) Sep 24, 2012
The social consequences of predicting an election in Romney's favor, and against Barack Obama, are not a small thing in an academic environment. "He's the guy who says that Romney will win!" can be a daunting burden on some campuses. For this reason I predict that this may have biased the findings of some of these people and would add a few points to Romney in each of their evaluations. However, I do acknowledge that it's going to be close and either candidate could win.


Have you know many academics?
obama_socks
1 / 5 (8) Sep 24, 2012
Another example: http://www.thenew...-century

"Yet another politician has provided a startling picture of the intellectual acumen of who Americans elect to office.

Rep. Yvette Clarke, a Leftist congresswoman from New York, told comic Stephen Colbert, who hosts The Colbert Report on the Comedy Channel, that the Dutch still owned slaves in New York in 1898. Her thoroughly ridiculous utterance, however, isn't the only one we've heard of late."
America's Liberal Democrats make fools of themselves and their Party on a regular basis. Similar to Vice-President Joe Biden's remarks that. "Y'all will be put back in chains."
These Liberals. are totally ridiculous ignoramuses. The shame of it is that they may be reelected by equally ignorant Americans.
kochevnik
4.2 / 5 (5) Sep 25, 2012
These Liberals. are totally ridiculous ignoramuses. The shame of it is that they may be reelected by equally ignorant Americans.
Oh yeah that 47% that Sanatorum admits are too educated to support republicans.
wealthychef
3 / 5 (2) Sep 25, 2012
What is missing from this article is the accuracy of the models. Have they been used in the past and how good are they? I'd bet they are not particularly accurate.
obama_socks
1 / 5 (3) Sep 26, 2012
These Liberals. are totally ridiculous ignoramuses. The shame of it is that they may be reelected by equally ignorant Americans.
Oh yeah that 47% that Sanatorum admits are too educated to support republicans.
--kochevnik--

I don't recollect Santorum ever mentioning the 47% figure while he was still campaigning for the Republican Presidential nomination. Educated in what? Political Science? The dumbing down of many unfortunate Americans by the Liberal-run public school system due to Socialist-slanted Department of Education guidelines and teachers who were educated in those public school systems, as well as many American parents, are to blame if Obama is reelected. Obama hasn't yet destroyed America and the normal American way of life. He has to be ensured of another 4 years in the White House so that he can complete the destruction and allow our enemies to take us over eventually. Obama has charisma, boyish good looks, charm, and wit, but he lies, has secrets, [contd]
obama_socks
1 / 5 (3) Sep 26, 2012
[contd] and he is not forthcoming with the important things like his college grades and record, and why he had, and has, such close personal ties to certain persons who have a history of carrying out some very "UNAmerican activities". And why does he rely so heavily on reading his speeches from teleprompters and rarely looks at his audience directly in front of him. He is known for his many gaffes when speaking without the teleprompters, which makes many people question the true extent of his intelligence.
These are only a few of the issues that make an Obama reelection questionable and objectionable at best.
Obama has signed an Executive Order that will give him certain powers to circumvent the U.S.Constitution if he deems it necessary in order to take total control. We will see why he thought it important to sign that particular E.O. Many people in different countries would like to see the destruction of the U.S. as a world power, perhaps become another Rwanda.
obama_socks
1 / 5 (3) Sep 26, 2012
http://www.infowa...ficials/

This is Communism in action...Red-Chinese style. Kochevnik, take note.

Warning: Do NOT click on the eFoods advertisement...very dangerous, so I'm told.