Mercury rising: Greater L.A. to heat up an average 4 to 5 degrees by mid-century

Jun 21, 2012

A groundbreaking new study led by UCLA climate expert Alex Hall shows that climate change will cause temperatures in the Los Angeles region to rise by an average of 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of this century, tripling the number of extremely hot days in the downtown area and quadrupling the number in the valleys and at high elevations.

Released today, "Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region" is the first study to provide specific predictions for the greater Los Angeles area, with unique predictions down to the neighborhood level. The report, the most sophisticated study ever developed, was produced by UCLA with funding and support from the city of Los Angeles (news release), in partnership with the Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability (LARC). It is available online at c-change.la.

"The changes our region will face are significant, and we will have to adapt," said Hall, an associate professor in UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and who is also a lead author on the reports, which, among other things, assess global climate-change simulations for the United Nations.

"Every season of the year in every part of the county will be warmer," Hall said. "This study lays a foundation for the region to confront climate change. Now that we have real numbers, we can talk about adaptation."

The LARC's unprecedented coalition of cities, universities, businesses, non-profits and other agencies made the study possible. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and the city of Los Angeles led the way, obtaining a $613,774 grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to study and share and committing $484,166 to commission UCLA's climate-change study. Though scientists knew to expect warming, this is the first time policymakers in the Los Angeles area have precise information on which to base their plans.

"UCLA's model shows projected climate changes down to the neighborhood level, allowing us to apply the rigor of science to long-term planning for our city and our entire region," Villaraigosa said. "With good data driving good policies, we can craft innovative solutions that will preserve our environment and enhance the quality of life for the next generation of Angelenos."

Facts and figures from the study

The study looked at the years 2041-60 to predict the average temperature change by mid-century. The data covers all of Los Angeles County and 30 to 60 miles beyond, including all of Orange County and parts of Ventura, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, and reaching as far as Palm Springs, Bakersfield and Santa Barbara. The study overlaid this entire area with a grid of squares 1.2 miles across and provided unique temperature predictions for each square. This is in contrast to global climate models, which normally use grids 60 to 120 miles across — big enough to include areas as different as Long Beach and Lancaster.

According to the study, coastal areas like Santa Monica and Long Beach are likely to warm an average of 3 to 4 degrees. Dense urban areas like downtown Los Angeles and the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys will warm an average of 4 degrees, and mountain and desert regions like Palm Springs and Lancaster will warm 4 to 5 degrees.

Some of the smallest changes predicted, yet still nearing a 4-degree increase, are in Oxnard (3.68 degrees), Venice (3.70), Santa Barbara (3.73), Santa Monica (3.74), San Pedro (3.78), Torrance (3.80), Long Beach (3.82) and Santa Ana (3.85). Among the highest predicted increases are Wrightwood (5.37), Big Bear Lake (5.23), Palm Springs (5.15), Palmdale (4.92), Lancaster (4.87), Bakersfield (4.48) and Santa Clarita (4.44). Table 2 in the study calls out 27 distinct locations, such as downtown Los Angeles (3.92), San Fernando (4.19), Woodland Hills (4.26), Eagle Rock (3.98), Pasadena (4.05), Pomona (4.09), Glendale (3.99) and Riverside (4.23).

These figures are only annual averages, and the day-to-day increase in temperatures will vary, said Hall, who is a member of UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability (IoES) and director of the institute's Center for Climate Change Solutions. Southern Californians should expect slightly warmer winters and springs but much warmer summers and falls, with more frequent heat waves. Temperatures now seen only on the seven hottest days of the year in each region will occur two to six times as often. The number of days when the temperature will climb above 95 degrees will increase two to four times, depending on the location. Those days will roughly double on the coast, triple in downtown Los Angeles and Pasadena, and quadruple in Woodland Hills. In Palm Springs, the number of extremely hot days will increase from an annual average of 75 to roughly 120.

"Places like Lancaster and Palm Springs are already pretty hot areas, and when you tack on warming of 5 to 6 degrees, that's a pretty noticeable difference," Hall said. "If humans are noticing it, so are plants, animals and ecosystems. These places will be qualitatively different than they are now."

The most sophisticated regional climate study ever developed

The type of climate modeling used in the study is done almost exclusively at the national or international level, said Paul Bunje, the managing director of the LARC, which is based at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. Other cities and states have localized global climate models — but usually by localizing only one model. Hall's team needed months of computer time to downscale 22 global climate models, each with slightly different assumptions about how to predict climate change or factors like future greenhouse gas emissions.

Hall's team included UCLA postdoctoral students Fengpeng Sun and Daniel Walton and graduate student Mark Nakamura. Once they recalculated the almost two dozen global models at the local level, the team analyzed the results and integrated them into an ensemble projection to create the forecast for the entire region.

"This is the best, most sophisticated climate science ever done for a city," said Bunje, who is also the executive director of UCLA's IoES Center for Climate Change Solutions.

"L.A. is one of the first cities to get its act together, from the scientists all the way up to the mayor," Bunje said. "Nobody knew precisely how to adapt to climate change because no one had the data — until now. These are shocking numbers, and we will have to adapt."

Cutting emissions will reduce but not eliminate warming

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the impact on Los Angeles, Hall said. However, even if the world has unanticipated — and perhaps unrealistic — success in drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the greater Los Angeles area will still warm to about 70 percent of the currently predicted levels, the study found.

"We looked not only at a business-as-usual scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue but also at a scenario where emissions are curtailed," Hall said. "Even if we drastically cut pollution worldwide, there will still be quite a bit of warming in Los Angeles. I was a little taken aback by how much warming remains, no matter how aggressively we cut back. It was sobering."

"Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region" is the first of five planned studies Hall will conduct for the city and the LARC about how climate change will affect the Southland.

Hall's team plans to develop similarly comprehensive models for local rainfall, Santa Ana wind patterns, coastal fog (including June gloom), and soil moisture, run-off and evaporation.

Preliminary results already show that Santa Ana winds and June gloom will react to climate change, Hall said.

Global warming is local warming

"I think for many people, climate change still feels like a nebulous, abstract, potential future change, and this makes it more real," Hall said. "It's eye-opening to see how much it will warm where you live. This data lays a foundation for really confronting this issue, and I'm very optimistic that we can confront and adapt to a changing climate."

Explore further: Brazil cracks 'biggest' Amazon deforestation gang

More information: The complete study, "Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region," along with interactive maps and ways to get involved, can be accessed online at c-change.la/

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User comments : 36

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freethinking
2.3 / 5 (12) Jun 21, 2012
Anyone want to take me up on a bet? I bet, that these predictions will NOT happen. Any takers?
Vendicar_Decarian
2.9 / 5 (13) Jun 21, 2012
Not a good bet as Amercia will not exist as a nation within a decade.

"I bet, that these predictions will NOT happen. Any takers?" - FreeTard

Deathclock
2.7 / 5 (11) Jun 21, 2012
Not a good bet as Amercia will not exist as a nation within a decade.


So stupid, and you call other people "tards"? You really are delusional.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.8 / 5 (9) Jun 22, 2012
DeathClock exists blissfully unaware of America's National Debt Clock which now shows a national debt for the U.S. of 15.802 Trillion dollars. Up 0.6 trillion from Jan. of this year.

In 10 years, the U.S. yearly deficit will raise the U.S. national debt to a minimum of 26 trillion.

America will collapse entirely before then.

"So stupid, and you call other people "tards"? You really are delusional." - DeathClock

40 Years of borrow and spend Republicanism has had it's treasonous consequences.
dtxx
1 / 5 (4) Jun 22, 2012
Who cares? The 1KM wide asteroid will be here in 750 years and it won't really have mattered how much oil we burned at that point!
slack
3.3 / 5 (12) Jun 22, 2012
Vendicar -you're now getting tiresome.
Just shut the hell up.
AND learn to spell.. the ONLY TARD here is YOU!
ubavontuba
2.5 / 5 (13) Jun 22, 2012
For at least the the last 30 years, Los Angeles has actually been cooling!

Funny that.
Ojorf
2.7 / 5 (7) Jun 22, 2012
Anyone want to take me up on a bet? I bet, that these predictions will NOT happen. Any takers?


Yeah, I'll take it, at least I'll get something out of this.
ubavontuba
2.8 / 5 (13) Jun 22, 2012
For at least the the last 30 years, Los Angeles has actually been cooling!

Funny that.
Oops, forgot the graph:

http://i48.tinypi...fhno.jpg
rubberman
3.3 / 5 (7) Jun 22, 2012
For at least the the last 30 years, Los Angeles has actually been cooling!

Funny that.
Oops, forgot the graph:

http://i48.tinypi...fhno.jpg


Can't argue with the trend shown in the graph. Clearly, based on this graph, regardless of the rest of the planet, Los Angeles
Need not worry about climate change at all, and these foolish scientists have wasted alot of tax payer money on a worthless study. I bet science is responsible for the other 15.802 trillion dollars of US debt as well. Don't worry....once the whole climate thing blows over the US politicians will figure out that little debt problem....then science will learn a thing or two about creative thinking and problem solving.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (10) Jun 23, 2012
UbVonTard = ParkerTard = SunshineHours1 = Paid Carbon industry shill.

"Oops, forgot the graph:" - UbVonTard
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (10) Jun 23, 2012
Ignoring America's deficit crisis is a perfect way to end the American state.

"Vendicar -you're now getting tiresome." - Slacker

40 years of borrow and spend Republican rule have bankrupted America.
ubavontuba
2.5 / 5 (13) Jun 23, 2012
Uba = Paid Carbon industry shill.
What? You mean I could get paid for posting the truth here? How do I get that job?

40 years of borrow and spend Republican rule have bankrupted America.
I don't disagree.

http://www.nytime...omy.html

NotParker
2.5 / 5 (11) Jun 24, 2012
For at least the the last 30 years, Los Angeles has actually been cooling!

Funny that.
Oops, forgot the graph:

http://i48.tinypi...fhno.jpg


Can't argue with the trend shown in the graph. Clearly, based on this graph, regardless of the rest of the planet, Los Angeles
Need not worry about climate change at all, and these foolish scientists have wasted alot of tax payer money on a worthless study.


"About 1/3 of temperature sites around the world reported global cooling over the past 70 years (including much of the United States and northern Europe). "

http://en.wikiped...perature

So, either there are natural cycles that are cooling most of North America and Europe ...

Or CO2 causes cooling in large parts of the world ....

Or the thermometers in Africa suck compared to the better quality thermometers in NA and Europe

The stubborn facts are, selective warming by CO2 is not believable.
rubberman
4 / 5 (8) Jun 25, 2012
So if 1/3 of the sites showed cooling...2/3 showed what?
Pure genius.

"CO2 causes cooling".... hmmmm....contrary to physics but in your world it would appear anything is possible.

"The thermometers in Africa suck."
This is the epitome of scientific analysis.

I'll put these in the proper order:

"The stubborn facts are, selective warming by CO2 is not believable"
"So, either there are natural cycles that are cooling most of North America and Europe ..."

Postings from the dimension of Parkertard, it's a little different there.
NotParker
1 / 5 (5) Jun 25, 2012
So if 1/3 of the sites showed cooling...2/3 showed what?


Good question.

Its cooling where I live. And for millions of square kilometers near by.

But, back to LA:

Reality: 30 years of cooling

http://i48.tinypi...fhno.jpg

gregor1
1 / 5 (4) Jun 25, 2012
A good appraisal of this work by Bob Tisdale here http://wattsupwit...century/
Read this and make up your own mind

rubberman
5 / 5 (6) Jun 26, 2012
A good appraisal of this work by Bob Tisdale here http://wattsupwit...century/
Read this and make up your own mind



That is pretty neat. I also urge everyone to check this link, look at the graphs they are using and interperate them based on what you see. While you are doing this, read Watts interpretation of the graphs and how he explains what he sees. It's like he's looking at an egg and describing to you why it is a perfect sphere....
mtc123
1.8 / 5 (5) Jun 26, 2012
The environmentalist equation:
Fear = Money and Power
Quick! Donate money to a leftist ennvironmental orgnization.
They will save you.
Sign their petition and send it to your Senator.
Don't think. Just do it!
rubberman
4.3 / 5 (6) Jun 26, 2012
The denialist credo:
It isn't happening!!! (But if it is we have nothing to do with it)

Howhot
5 / 5 (5) Jun 26, 2012
UbVonTard = ParkerTard = SunshineHours1 = Paid Carbon industry shill.

It is hard to argue with that! If not paid for, they sure do love to pander to the oil/gas/coal shills. They love to scoot there broad and wide rear-ends right up to the rightwing-a-tards eco-leaders and beg them to be cheap with them. Cheap gas. Bunch of clueless anti-science pricks.


gregor1
1 / 5 (5) Jun 26, 2012
Thanks for reading the link and making up your own mind as I suggested. Thanks too for defining "denialist" as I'm relieved that I'm not one. We simply don't know what's happening because we don't have the information yet and the models aren't up to the task. (Does that make me a model denialist? Oh no!). I'd like to remind you that climate is generally regarded as weather over 30 years so taking the trend over 30 years does have some legitimacy. The problem I have is when these guys have the temerity to tell us what "will" happen. "Just trust my models" is not science to my mind. I don't care what cereal box you pulled them out of.
Howhot
5 / 5 (4) Jun 26, 2012
30 years of cooling

Oh and by the way, the ocean currents on the west coast flow downward from the Arctic bringing with it a slight cooling effect.
Of course that would only happen when the Arctic ice melts allowing cold water to mix into the pacific current. Of course, that would only happen from ... (pause for dramatic effect) ... Global Warming.
Howhot
5 / 5 (4) Jun 26, 2012
I'd like to remind you that climate is generally regarded as weather over 30 years


The problem Gregor is; how do you say it's weather when your on the up-swing of an exponential hockey stick?!?!
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
Other than a know nothing blogger, who is Bob Tisdale?

"Bob Tisdale has self published a book based on his insightful weblog posts, titled and available from
If the IPCC was Selling Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop Their Deceptive Ads?"

Ah, he is a know nothing blogger who is looking to increase sales of his self published book.
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (3) Jun 27, 2012
And what about your ice box? Is it warming or cooling in there?

"Its cooling where I live." - ParkerTard

Tarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrd.
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (3) Jun 27, 2012
Since I wrote the paragraph below, America's National Debt has increased by 13 billion dollars.

"DeathClock exists blissfully unaware of America's National Debt Clock which now shows a national debt for the U.S. of 15.802 Trillion dollars. Up 0.6 trillion from Jan. of this year." - Vendicar
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (3) Jun 27, 2012
So at least 2/3rds of the earth is warming.

"About 1/3 of temperature sites around the world reported global cooling over the past 70 years (including much of the United States and northern Europe)." - ParkerTard

"The stubborn facts are, selective warming by CO2 is not believable." - ParkerTard

Your own evidence proves otherwise.

A fire in your living room burns a hole in your roof, and as a result a draft enters your kitchen from outside, cooling the kitchen.

According to ParkerTard logic, fire can't be hot.
NotParker
1 / 5 (3) Jun 27, 2012
So at least 2/3rds of the earth is warming.


Not what they said. But we do know they started their graphs in 1950, one of the coldest decades, and left out the 20s/30s/40s.

Totally dishonest.
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (3) Jun 27, 2012
But it is exactly what they said through complementary inference.

You poor, stupid, Tard. Logic is lost upon you.

"Not what they said." - ParkerTard/UbvonTard/sunshinehours1

You are mentally diseased. Get help immediately.
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
Measurements aren't referenced to 1050, but to a baseline temperature that typically runs from the mid 1800's to the late 1970's.

Poor Parkertard. He is ignorant to the last drop.

"But we do know they started their graphs in 1950" - Parkertard

Get mental help Parkertard. Your mind is diseased.
NotParker
1.8 / 5 (5) Jun 27, 2012
So at least 2/3rds of the earth is warming.


Not what they said. But we do know they started their graphs in 1950, one of the coldest decades, and left out the 20s/30s/40s.

Totally dishonest.


"we restricted the period for our analysis to 1950-2010"

Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (4) Jun 27, 2012
But not the base line temperature.

"we restricted the period for our analysis to 1950-2010" - ParkerTard

You on the other hand restrict your denialist analysis to the temperatures where you live, individual states that comprise only 0.03 percent of the earth's surface, or to mindless jabbering about weather rather than climate.

Poor mentally ill ParkerTard, UbVonTard, sunshinehours1, or whatever it else you happen to call yourself today.

NotParker
1.8 / 5 (5) Jun 27, 2012

"we restricted the period for our analysis to 1950-2010"



For example, they ignored the 1920s and 30s.

http://sunshineho...hink-so/
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (2) Jun 28, 2012
ParkerTard's latest nonsense is easy to expose.

As the following graphic shows, the 1920's and 30's weren't particularly warm.

http://woodfortre...rom:1910

"For example, they ignored the 1920s and 30s." - ParkerTard

ParkerTard does provide a link to his BLOG.

http://sunshineho...ess.com/

In which he repeats his same old tired lies, over and over and over again.

ParkerTard puts in many hours posting here, and to his blog as sunshinehours1, as well as elsewhere on the net.

Lying is a full time job for him.

Who is paying his bills?

NotParker
2.3 / 5 (3) Jun 28, 2012
ParkerTard's latest nonsense is easy to expose.

As the following graphic shows, the 1920's and 30's weren't particularly warm.


Even with data adjusting past temperatures downward, 1934 was the 3rd warmest year in US history.

Thats warm.

Nature magazine recently admitted that in Greenland it was as warm in the 1930s as it is now:

"Analysis of the images reveals that over the past decade, glacier retreat was as vigorous as in a similar period of warming in the 1930s"

http://www.nature...-1.10725

"The 1936 North American heat wave was the most severe heat wave in the modern history of North America. It took place in the middle of the Great Depression and Dust Bowl of the 1930s, and caused catastrophic human suffering and an enormous economic toll. The death toll exceeded 5,000, and huge numbers of crops were destroyed by the heat and lack of moisture."

Wikipedia