Warming could exceed 3.5 C, say climate scientists

May 24, 2012
Climate researchers said the planet could warm by more than 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit), boosting the risk of drought, flood and rising seas.

Climate researchers said Thursday the planet could warm by more than 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit), boosting the risk of drought, flood and rising seas.

The UN's target is a 2 C (3.6 degree Fahrenheit) limit on warming from pre-industrial levels for manageable climate change.

In a report issued on the penultimate day of new UN talks in Bonn, scientists said Earth's average global temperature rise could exceed the dangerous 3.5 C (6.3 F) warming they had flagged only six months ago.

Marion Vieweg, a policy researcher with German firm Climate Analytics, told AFP the 3.5 C (6.3 F) estimate had been based on the assumption that all countries will meet their pledges, in themselves inadequate, to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

New research has found this is not "a realistic assumption," she said, adding that right now "we can't quantify yet how much above" 3.5 C (6.3 F) Earth will warm.

The monitoring tool is called Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a joint project of Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Impact Research in Germany.

Her colleague, Bill Hare, said the gap between countries' promised interventions and the reality was "getting bigger."

Projections are for greenhouse-gas overshoot of between nine and 11 billion tonnes per year beyond the annual 44-billion-tonne ceiling needed by 2020 to achieve the 2 C (3.6 F) target.

At the moment, the world emits about 48 billion tonnes of these gases, including CO2 and methane.

The United States accounts for six billion tonnes, China seven and the European Union (EU) five, the CAT said.

The 195 parties to the (UNFCCC) are meeting in the former German capital of Bonn for the first time since they agreed in Durban, South Africa, last December to forge a new .

The accord would be completed by 2015 and take effect in 2020.

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Vendicar_Decarian
3.4 / 5 (15) May 24, 2012
The higher the levels of CO2 the greater the eventual warming will be. These estimates presume some reasonable response by nations to limit the production of CO2. If there is none, then the warming will be much higher.

In addition the initial warming will only be approximately half of the final temperature rise that the earth will be committed to.

3.5'C warming by 2100 will mean 7'C warming in the century that follows as a result of the slow temperature response time of the ocean and the long residency time of CO2 in the atmosphere.

And again 3.5'C (7'C eventual) presumes that action is taken to significantly limit CO2 emissions.
freethinking
1.9 / 5 (14) May 24, 2012
Could exceed 3.5, love fake science of Man Made Global warming. According to Al Gore, how much more time do we have to reduce co2 levels? If I recall we only have a few years left to save the world.
rubberman
3.5 / 5 (13) May 24, 2012
Could exceed 3.5, love fake science of Man Made Global warming. According to Al Gore, how much more time do we have to reduce co2 levels? If I recall we only have a few years left to save the world.


What do your calculations show?
Vendicar_Decarian
2.9 / 5 (15) May 24, 2012
"The higher the levels of CO2 the greater the eventual warming will be." - Vendicar Decarian

"According to Al Gore, how much more time do we have to reduce co2 levels?" - FreeTard

Poor Tard. He is incapable of comprehending the first sentence.

I think he is incapable of performing basic arithmetic and is totally foncused by Algebra, which he probably refers to as Algorabra.

rubberman
3.4 / 5 (10) May 24, 2012
LMAO Algoraba.....
NotParker
2.1 / 5 (18) May 24, 2012
Drought and flooding?

What a magical unicorn of a gas that CO2 is. It can cause drought in regions that are flooding and flooding in regions what are in drought.

Anyone who takes this hilarious propaganda is as dumb as VD.

Vendicar_Decarian
3.2 / 5 (13) May 24, 2012
If the changes overlapped exactly then it would truly be a magical gas. But since they don't the only magical gas here is the gas that you are emitting.

"It can cause drought in regions that are flooding and flooding in regions what are in drought." - ParkerTard

Do you intend to remain a liar for the rest of your life ParkerTard?

http://www.youtub...1k2HMoRU
NotParker
2.4 / 5 (14) May 25, 2012
VD is like a little foul mouthed child who believes in Unicorns, and Santa Claus and AGW conmen.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.3 / 5 (9) May 25, 2012
While my scientific training is in physics, astophysics and computer programming, ParkerTard's has decided to remain ignorant and resort to a continual stream of lies in order to propagate his Conservative idiocy.

He is on record as publicly claiming that he will never stop lying in the promotion of his Libertarian ideology.
NotParker
2.5 / 5 (13) May 25, 2012
While my scientific training is in physics, astophysics and computer programming ...


... you should ask for you money back. You are incapable of putting together a rational argument.
Howhot
3.2 / 5 (11) May 26, 2012
Another nail in the coffin of Not-warming-park group. It must be a big coffin; IT SURE DOES HAVE A LOT OF NAILS.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (10) May 26, 2012
One wonders why ParkerTard has just finished posting that a cherry picked temperature trend from central England which represents 1/16 thousanth of the earth's surface is representative of the world as a whole.

"You are incapable of putting together a rational argument." - ParkerTard

He is a congenital liar and is suffering from a mental disease.

kaasinees
2 / 5 (8) May 26, 2012
I wonder how much warming it takes for tectonics to reach such a point that it will catalyze volcanic activity.

In the last years we already had 4 eruptions if i remember correctly and that is unusual.
NotParker
2.4 / 5 (14) May 26, 2012
One wonders why ParkerTard has just finished posting that a cherry picked temperature trend from central England which represents 1/16 thousanth of the earth's surface is representative of the world as a whole.


Despite your whiny name calling, I'll answer.

"The monthly series, which begins in 1659, is the longest available instrumental record of temperature in the world. The daily series begins in 1772."

If VD has an alternative thermometer record that occurs in the 1600s, 1700s and 1800s I would graph it for him.

freethinking
2.8 / 5 (9) May 26, 2012
VD is a hateful progressive name calling bully. Don't believe me, just check out his profile.

Anyone who believes someone as hateful and spiteful as VD, deserves to be a progressive.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.8 / 5 (9) May 26, 2012
ParkerTard thinks that his cherry picked temperature series that covers 1/16 thousanth of the earth's surface is in any way applicable as a replacement for a true global average.

His lies of course were first to claim that the global temp was rising only .009'C per decade and second to use his cherry picked temperature series as "proof" of that rate.

"The monthly series, which begins in 1659, is the longest available instrumental record of temperature in the world." - ParkerTard

Parker Tard is well known to be a congenital liar, and is suffering from a deep seated mental disease.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.5 / 5 (8) May 26, 2012
FreeTard seem so think that progressives will soon be so displeased with the continuous stream of lies and treason coming from American Conservatives that the coming civil war will wipe out their kind.

"VD is a hateful progressive name calling bully." - FreeTard

As a moral man, I will be obligated to assist in that effort.
NotParker
2 / 5 (12) May 26, 2012
ParkerTard thinks that his cherry picked temperature series that covers 1/16 thousanth of the earth's surface is in any way applicable as a replacement for a true global average.


1) Its not cherry picking if it is the only 350 year long thermometer series.

2) Feel free to enlighten us with another series that long.

3) If climate derangement is global, then HADCET should be a viable temperature series.

4) As for "1/16 thousanth of the earths surface", the so-called global series such as GISS comprises about 1000 thermometers near airports or large cities and is probably reasonably representative of less than 1/16 thousandth of the earths surface.

Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (5) May 26, 2012
And represents 1/16,000th of the earth's surface.

That fact disqualifies it as a proxy for global average temperature.

Your dishonest claim that it's long duration somehow makes it statistically relevant is nothing more than a lie.

You cherry picked the temperature series because you thought you could get away with lying with it.

You failed.

"Its not cherry picking if it is the only 350 year long thermometer series." - ParkerTard
Vendicar_Decarian
2.3 / 5 (6) May 26, 2012
ParkerTard's latest lie is easy to expose.

HADCET = Hadley Central England Time series.

Central England represents 1/16,000 of the globe, and hence it's temperature can not provide a global temperature proxy.

"If climate derangement is global, then HADCET should be a viable temperature series." - ParkerTard

Do you intend to remain a liar for the rest of your life Parker Tard?

You are mentally ill. Get help.
NotParker
2.3 / 5 (12) May 26, 2012

1) Its not cherry picking if it is the only 350 year long thermometer series.

2) Feel free to enlighten us with another series that long.

3) If climate derangement is global, then HADCET should be a viable temperature series.

4) As for "1/16 thousanth of the earths surface", the so-called global series such as GISS comprises about 1000 thermometers near airports or large cities and is probably reasonably representative of less than 1/16 thousandth of the earths surface.

Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (6) May 26, 2012
ParekerTard's latest lie is easy to expose.

From Hansen et al 2001...

"The source of the monthly mean station temperatures for the GISS analysis is the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) of Peterson and Vose [1997] and updates, available electronically, from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This is a compilation of 31 data sets, which include data from more than 7200 independent stations."

These thermometers are dispersed all over the earth's surface, and each gives a reading of the air temperature in it's region.

"As for "1/16 thousanth of the earths surface", the so-called global series such as GISS comprises about 1000 thermometers" - ParkerTard
Vendicar_Decarian
2.7 / 5 (7) May 26, 2012
ParkerTard believes that by repeating his lies, they become the truth.

"Its not cherry picking if it is the only 350 year long thermometer series." - ParkerTard

He is a chronic liar, and is mentally diseased.
A2G
3 / 5 (8) May 27, 2012
Based only on how someone presents an argument, then NotParker clearly wins over VD.

I will never respect the opinion of someone who posts in such a childlike way.

Name calling and slandering is not the way a truly intelligent person writes.

VD when are you going to grow up?
Vendicar_Decarian
2.6 / 5 (5) May 27, 2012
I believe in calling liars, "liars", and fools, "fools".

Fools and Liars often have differing opinions on that non issue.

Science is best served by brutal honesty rather than the politically correct speech that the Conservative Enemy demands.

Birger
3.7 / 5 (6) May 27, 2012
Soo... most glaciers are shrinking, spring is coming earlier, rainfall patterns are changing, the permafrost in north Europe and Alaska is thawing out, but the denialbots "know" it is all a big conspiracy, presumably organised by Al Gore in his capacity as head of Opus Dei.
The hundred thousand data sets that support warming are all created by scientists telepathically brainwashed by the alien mind parasites (for the record, that was sarcasm).
NotParker
1.8 / 5 (10) May 27, 2012
Soo... most glaciers are shrinking, spring is coming earlier, rainfall patterns are changing, the permafrost in north Europe and Alaska is thawing out, but the denialbots "know" it is all a big conspiracy, presumably organised by Al Gore in his capacity as head of Opus Dei.
The hundred thousand data sets that support warming are all created by scientists telepathically brainwashed by the alien mind parasites (for the record, that was sarcasm).


Translation: No one buys the AGW lies anymore.
NotParker
1.9 / 5 (9) May 27, 2012
This is a compilation of 31 data sets, which include data from more than 7200 independent stations.


But not current data.

GHCN peaked around 6000 stations in the 1970s. It is down to just over 1000 now.

Nice animated graphics and article here:

http://joannenova...ometers/

And VD, HADCET is the only 350 year thermometer record. Throwing away inconvenient dat is the hallmark of AGW cultists.
Feldagast
2 / 5 (4) May 28, 2012
And not RAW data, that was convienently lost.
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (1) May 28, 2012
Translation: ParkerTard has no rational position and never has.

"Translation: No one buys the AGW lies anymore." - ParkerTard

He is motivated by his mental disease.
Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (2) May 28, 2012
No raw data has been lost.

"And not RAW data, that was convienently lost." - FullofGast

What do you think you are jabbering about? Fool!

You are frothing out of sheer ignorance.

Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (1) May 28, 2012
ParekerTard's latest deception is easy to expose. GHCN stands for Global Historical Climate Network, and this Historical network extends over 7,000 temperature sites, not just the 1,000 that ParkerTard claims.

"GHCN peaked around 6000 stations in the 1970s. It is down to just over 1000 now." - ParkerTard

ParkerTard's original claim was that a .009'C warming in central england was a legitimate proxy for the rise in the earth's temperature even though it represents only 1/16,000 th of the earth's surface.

He then claimed that the GISS temperature set used only 1,000 observing stations, when in fact it has used over 7,000 of them.

The 1,000 now used are regularized, and reproduce the historical results from the other 6,000.

ParkerTard is a congenital liar and is suffering from a mental disease.
SURFIN85
2.3 / 5 (3) May 28, 2012
Politicization of this Science is what is appalling.
Birger
4.2 / 5 (5) May 28, 2012
(Mayor in "Jaws" "-There is no shark!")
.
Some times I wonder just how much it would take to convince the deniers. It helps that many live in a warm climate, while the effects of warming are first visible in boreal or sub-arctic regions. It is easy to ignore forests invading former tundra if you live a thousand miles further south.

Nevertheless, every citizen has an obligation to seek out information about society, even if that information is unpalatable or downright scary. It is, for instance, irresponsible to build a house on a plot that sits right across the San Andreas fault (but people still do it). It is irresponsible to let your kids go without vaccinations (but people still do it). It is up to the grownups to gather information, and try to alter policies to avoid disaster despite the apathy of deniers.
Feldagast
1 / 5 (4) May 28, 2012
I believe there is global warming I just dont think man is the cause or can do anything about it.
NotParker
1.4 / 5 (9) May 28, 2012
Interested readers can check this random page selected from GISS.

http://data.giss....map.y=99

Only 2 of the stations have data up to 2012. Blaine and Clearbrook.

Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (2) May 29, 2012
I select...

http://data.giss....ghbors=1

"Interested readers can check this random page selected from GISS." - ParkerTard

The above plot shows a temperature rise of 0.9'C over the last 70 years.

http://data.giss....ghbors=1

Shows a temperature rise of about 1'C rise over 40 years.

http://data.giss....ghbors=1

Shows a temp increase of about 1.25'C over it's 20 year peroid.

Poor ParkerTard. He is mentally diseased, and needs to get himself to a psychologist before he hurts himself or someone else.
Howhot
3.7 / 5 (3) May 31, 2012
@Mr Notparker, here is a graph for you. It sure looks like a hockey stick to me.

http://en.wikiped...ison.png
Vendicar_Decarian
3 / 5 (2) May 31, 2012
What happened to ParkerTard? Has his coal industry funding run out?
mtc123
1 / 5 (3) May 31, 2012
GOLDEN RULE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT:
FEAR = REVENUE
mtc123
1 / 5 (2) May 31, 2012
Wow! Apparently if you don't drink the Algorean Kool-Aid and glom on to the AGW 'movement' you are to be attacked and referred to Wikipedia. So much hate comes from the hempies. Chill. Hit the bong.
That's what Barry Soetoro would do.
mtc123
1 / 5 (2) May 31, 2012
"Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views."
William F. Buckley Jr
Vendicar_Decarian
not rated yet May 31, 2012
William F. Buckley Jr - I remember him on that TV show he had on PBS. He always looked like he had a very large butt plug uncomfortably rammed up his backside.

Sadly, he was a major force in the destruction of the American State.

Many consider him a traitor for that reason.

Vendicar_Decarian
not rated yet May 31, 2012
Apparently if you can't understand grade school science, you think Al Gore is the father of Global Warming Science.

"Apparently if you don't drink the Algorean Kool-Aid and glom on to the AGW 'movement' you are to be attacked and referred to Wikipedia." - mtc123

And if Gore was the father of Global Warming Science, he would deserve much more than the Nobel Prize that he was awarded.
Vendicar_Decarian
5 / 5 (1) May 31, 2012
What are American Republicans and the U.S. Military Industrial complex banking on?

"FEAR = REVENUE" - mtc123
NotParker
1 / 5 (3) May 31, 2012
What happened to ParkerTard? Has his coal industry funding run out?


Doing research. You shoud try it some day.

"Over the past century, years in Greenland that register as abnormally warm, 1929, 1932, 1941, 1947, and 1960 are outstanding, having temperatures warmer than observed recently. Increases in GrIS melt and runoff during this past century warm period must have been significant and were probably even larger than that of the most recent last decade (1995-2006)."

http://www.arctic...nna.html

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