Chinese researchers say early climate changes responsible for human crisis

Oct 04, 2011 by Bob Yirka report

(PhysOrg.com) -- David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong and several of his Chinese colleagues have published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, where they say they have proven that climate change has been the cause of much of history's strife. They say that cold periods have led to reduced crop production which inevitably led to famine, disease outbreaks and wars.

To come up with their findings, the team collected known data based on fourteen different criteria types, such as the price of gold, tree ring information and average human height; all for the period 1500 to 1800 in before it became industrialized. They then used to correlate the data they’d collected with events that were occurring in human history during that time period. Next they divided the time span into four slices, ranging from forty to one hundred and fifty years. The end result, they say, is a guide that shows that for any given time of strife, there was a climate change prior to it that caused it to come about.

As an example, they cite the Thirty Years War, a conflict that eventually involved most of the countries of Europe, that the researchers say, came about as a result of the drop in temperatures during the period, 1559 to 1652, or as historians call it, the General Crisis of the sixteenth century. Because of the famine that went along with the colder temperatures (and destruction of farmlands by warring parties) the average human height dropped by more than three quarters of an inch. Clearly this was a bad time for the people in Europe though it’s a particularly good example for the researchers because most historians agree that the historically barbaric war didn’t seem to have any real root cause, other than general strife.

Zhang and his team say that because the correlations were so clear, they could choose a climatic period of instability and then predict human events based on what they saw with a very high rate of accuracy. They also note that periods of “good” climate tended to result in good times for people as well; the Renaissance being the prime example.

Not everyone is thus far convinced that climate change alone can be used as a pointer to chart out historical events however, or to blame them so easily for the actions that occurred as result. Some suggest the model is a little too simplistic because it doesn’t take into account such factors as rainfall, or the motivations of those in power at the time of .

Nonetheless, it’s likely the results of this study will be used by historians for years to come as a means to explain at least some of the misery in European history, and of course, more such studies that cover other parts of the world and other time periods will likely be undertaken that will either bolster the researchers claims, or show that they are only partly right.

Explore further: Young people in detention being held for longer without trial

More information: The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis, PNAS, Published online before print October 3, 2011, doi:10.1073/pnas.1104268108

Abstract
Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

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User comments : 14

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JRDarby
3.3 / 5 (4) Oct 04, 2011
"Clearly this was a bad time for the people in Europe though [the Thirty Years War is] a particularly good example for the researchers because most historians agree that the historically barbaric war didnt seem to have any real root cause, other than general strife."

... what? No real root cause? Oh, really? Just because you can't reduce the war to a SINGLE cause doesn't mean it has NO cause. The causes were myriad and complex, as human politics, economics, and warfare often are.

That said, interesting article. Certainly environmental factors have a lot to do with human behavior.

Please note, from the abstract: "Recent studies have shown strong temporal **correlations** between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific **causal mechanisms** underlying this relation have not been addressed." Emphasis mine.
R2Bacca
4 / 5 (6) Oct 04, 2011
Correlation does not prove causation.
JRDarby
3 / 5 (2) Oct 04, 2011
And the authors, as I noted above in anticipation of someone saying what you just said, explicitly acknowledged that they were not implying causation.
Doug_Huffman
1.8 / 5 (4) Oct 04, 2011
A claim of proof in natural history does not imply falsifiability.
Vendicar_Decarian
2.5 / 5 (10) Oct 04, 2011
Commie Science. The world needs Liberty Science, where everyone is free to believe any truth they like.

Freeeeeedumb.
Sanescience
3.8 / 5 (4) Oct 04, 2011
China's ruling party certainty wouldn't mind if some of their populations discontent could be directed at "climate change".

"Food shortage? Oh, it's that climate change..." Central authoritarian dictatorship control of the economy that is trying to marginalize your provinces influence on government policy couldn't possibly be a factor.
PinkElephant
2.6 / 5 (5) Oct 04, 2011
Correlation does not prove causation.
But strongly suggests it. After all, it's hardly plausible to say that medieval European climate changes were caused by European wars. So, any causation in this case could only go one way: from climate to human behavior.

And if the correlation is strong (statistically significant), then causation is the most likely conclusion. In this case, the only other alternative is random coincidence.
Howhot
1 / 5 (1) Oct 04, 2011
You know the fun part will be when AGW really begins to make an impact on the human condition, for the worst.

Vendicar_Decarian
2.3 / 5 (6) Oct 04, 2011
@Howhot. Do you have your list ready? I look forward to the Bloody Retribution that will soon be here for the crime of treason against man and nature.

Howhot
1 / 5 (1) Oct 04, 2011
@VD, Haha. Yeah I've not thought about Bloody Retribution, but give it 20 years ... yeah... I can see that happening.
gwrede
5 / 5 (1) Oct 05, 2011
...cooling from A.D. 15601660 caused successive agro-ecological...
According to the Official Truth, then this would have meant that people stopped using fire for cooking and heating for a hundred years.
PinkElephant
2.3 / 5 (3) Oct 05, 2011
...cooling from A.D. 15601660 caused successive agro-ecological...
According to the Official Truth, then this would have meant that people stopped using fire for cooking and heating for a hundred years.
Or, you could stop being a clown and learn the subject on which you're trying to opine, for a change...
Jeddy_Mctedder
1 / 5 (1) Oct 09, 2011
wow, it takes a team of fucking high paid 'scientists' to state the obvious.

for the vast majority of human history , we know that anectotal evidence uniformly demonstrates that cold periods (cold summers and unusually long frosts ) have led to reduced crop production which inevitably led to famine, disease outbreaks and wars

it's all about the food people. all the bitching environmentalists need to get back on traditional environmental issues instead of crying about the end of the world and 20 foot rising oceans in 10 years.
there's plenty of REAL ISSUES WITH REAL WORK TO DO to stop biant nations and corporations from poisoning the earth right now. stop wasting money on this nonsense.
Skepticus
not rated yet Oct 09, 2011
Yeah right, all the wars in human history have nothing to do with economics. They were started for fun and glory, starting from the first monkeys on the ground who bashed the competitors' brains out... to get a bigger share of food as a bonus!