Gamblers predicted Brexit before financial traders, study finds
International finance markets lagged behind punters having a flutter when it came to getting the Brexit result right on EU referendum night, according to research.
Jan 11, 2019
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Testing the reproducibility of social science research
Today, in Nature Human Behavior, a collaborative team of five laboratories published the results of 21 high-powered replications of social science experiments originally published in Science and Nature, two of the most prestigious ...
Tweets can help predict the outcome of soccer matches
New research shows that Twitter activity can help predict the result of football matches when combined with betting market prices.
A simple reward system could make crowds a whole lot wiser
There's a problem with the wisdom of crowds.
Scientists show prediction polls can outdo prediction markets
Ask economists whether prediction markets or prediction polls fare better, and they'll likely favor the former.
Like polls, prediction markets failed to see Trump's victory coming, economist says
As network anchors and pundits appeared stunned at Donald Trump's Electoral College victory Tuesday night, it was obvious much political polling data had missed the mark.
Prediction markets can help identify research results that are too good to be true
One experimental result doesn't mean much in science. To truly know whether a result is valid, it needs to be reproduced in the same way over and over again. Yet research that may not be reproduced often finds its way into ...
What happened to MH370? Prediction markets might give us the answer
Could the wisdom of crowds locate missing Flight MH370? Perhaps with a sufficient number of experts, each bringing a little knowledge of the ocean, currents, wreck salvage, and so forth, the lost aircraft could be found by ...
Researchers suggest adding uncertainty to catastrophe models may help predictability
(Phys.org)—A small team of researchers with members from Universidad de Granada and Princeton University has found that adding some uncertainty to computer models meant to predict catastrophes such as stock market crashes, ...
Bookies may be best bet to predict Referendum
If you want to guess the outcome of the Scottish Independence Referendum, it might be better to consult the bookies than rely on opinion polls.
