Faster CO2 rise expected in 2019

Faster CO2 rise expected in 2019
Figure 1: Forecast CO₂ concentrations at Mauna Loa over 2019 (orange), along with previous forecast concentrations for 2016 (blue), 2017 (green), 2018 (pink) and Scripps Institute measurements (black). Credit: University of Exeter

With emissions already at a record high, the build-up of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere could be larger than last year due to a slower removal by natural carbon sinks.

During 2019 Met Office climate scientists expect to see one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in 62 years of measurements. The Met Office CO2 forecast is based on a combination of factors including rising anthropogenic emissions and a relative reduction in the uptake of carbon-dioxide by ecosystems due to tropical climate variability.

Professor Richard Betts of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of Exeter said: "Since 1958, monitoring at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii has registered around a 30 per cent increase in the concentration of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere. This is caused by emissions from , deforestation and cement production, and the increase would have been even larger if it were not for natural carbon sinks which soak up some of the excess CO2. This year we expect these carbon sinks to be relatively weak, so the impact of record high human-caused emissions will be larger than last year".

Weather patterns linked to year-by-year swings in Pacific Ocean temperatures are known to affect the uptake of carbon-dioxide by land ecosystems. In years with a warmer tropical Pacific, many regions become warmer and drier, which limits the ability of plants to grow and absorb CO₂. The opposite occurs when the Pacific is cool, as happened a year ago.

The Met Office forecast suggests that the average rise in atmospheric CO₂ will be 2.75 ± 0.58 parts per million (ppm) higher in 2019 than in 2018. This figure would be among the largest annual rises on record, but less than those in 2015-2016 and 1997-1998 – years with El Niño events and hence large Pacific warming. In the first decade of measurements, the rise of atmospheric CO₂ was less than 0.9 ppm per year. The rise has since become generally faster over time as human emissions have increased, but with fluctuations related to climate swings such as El Niño.

The average CO2 concentration in 2019 is forecast to be 411.3 ± 0.6 ppm, with monthly averages reaching a peak of 414.7 ± 0.6 ppm in May, temporarily dropping back to 408.1 ppm ± 0.6 in September before rising again at the end of the year.

Professor Betts added: "The Mauna Loa graph of atmospheric CO₂ is a thing of beauty, but also a stark reminder of human impact on climate. Looking at the monthly figures, it's as if you can see the planet 'breathing' as the levels of carbon dioxide fall and rise with seasonal cycle of plant growth and decay in the northern hemisphere. But each year's CO2 is higher than the last, and this will keep happening until humans stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere. Testing our predictions of the details of this helps us improve our understanding of feedbacks in the climate system."

The CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are measured by the Scripps Institution for Oceanography at UC San Diego and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).


Explore further

El Nino drives fastest annual increase on record of carbon dioxide

Citation: Faster CO2 rise expected in 2019 (2019, January 25) retrieved 18 June 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2019-01-faster-co2.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
687 shares

Feedback to editors

User comments

Jan 25, 2019
I can't help but wonder what climate change deniers think when they see the actual data reflecting the CO2 changes, temperature rises, and ocean level increases. How exactly could this be a hoax or anything other than real? Its like trying to explain that the sun isn't really rising from the east while watching a sunrise.

While it is never a good gamble to bet against the depths of human stupidity, there has to be some sort of true mental blindness happening here that lies even beyond raw idiocy.

Combine that with the horrific consequences inherent in the projected rapid changes to ecosystems and agricultural productivity around the globe, and people have to bleeding insane to trust their own fallible senses instead of the scientific consensus.

Jan 25, 2019
they think ' fake news '

Jan 25, 2019
I think I wish it weren't a fraud because I live in Alaska.

Here, the land rises faster than the ocean as glaciers melt and stop pushing on the mountains. I could use another ten degrees warmth in winter, it would really bring down my heating bill, and summers are mild anyhow. What's more, with all the summer daylight we'd get yet another growing season out of cropland. Not to mention all that tundra (1/5 the size of the USA) turned into the next breadbasket of the world, unsullied by the warped economies of fiat/credit driven condo booms.

Jan 25, 2019
This should be a message to all AGWites to lower their consumption to help prevent this from happening. Turn off you computers, turn down the heat, don't travel beyond walking/bicycling distance from your hole, no more meat or other high carbon foods. Have some dignity and start practising what you preach?

Jan 25, 2019
lol, no more junkets to Paris , Davos

Jan 26, 2019
This should be a message to all AGWites to lower their consumption to help prevent this from happening.


Which makes failure to fix the problem the fault of those who express concern about it? Ironically those who do act that way don't get praised; they are seen as extremists who are not taken seriously - a lose-lose game the way opponents of climate action play it.

This is not a problem that can be fixed by some people making a personal choice when others are left free to act irresponsibly - it needs institutional and regulatory change. It isn't about socialism or any kind of -ism, it is about responsibility and accountability, things that are compatible with free enterprise.

When the price of energy reflects it's full and true costs we will choose low emissions over high.

Jan 26, 2019
Wow! This is such a dire situation I'm surprised that governments around the world are not freaking out! I know the climate deniers would love to live in la-la land but their problem is the reality of the situation is very grave and the future is dark and hot. Dark because power generation will have to be stopped by military force unless it uses renewable fuel.

Jan 26, 2019
If the problem is as bad as the 'scientists' claim and happening as quick as the believe then surely drastic action should be taken NOW. Forget the carbon tax, that will not help, immediately restrict the main sources of carbon 'pollution'. Eliminate all unnecessary travel by air and sea, restrict carbon powered road transport to alternate days based on odd/even license plates, end the production of all infernal combustion engine production, fix all the leaky abandoned oil and gas wells, plug all land based and undersea natural seeps, stop all forest fires at any cost (nuke them if needed), likewise all volcanoes, reduce livestock numbers by 90%, stop all construction of all new buildings, eliminate all use of air conditioners and set maximum indoor temperatures in norther latitudes to 13 Celsius. Increase fear levels worldwide by running adds full time on all media showing lots of scary images and videos of past weather disasters, and target children in particular. It's do or die...

Jan 26, 2019
This is not a problem that can be fixed by some people making a personal choice when others are left free to act irresponsibly...

No doubt;
https://www.zeroh...-private

Jan 26, 2019
particulates in air pollution completely ignored in climate models.

Jan 27, 2019
what happened to waterprophet ? lol...

Jan 27, 2019
particulates in air pollution completely ignored in climate models.


aaaah monkey doooo ! :D
The models aren't made for those still swinging the trees.
And remember, even if when collaborating with your own puppets up on the branches, you'll still end up with more barking and chattering as you always do. Earning more bananas and self inflicted ridicule, just as you always do :D

Jan 27, 2019
This is not a problem that can be fixed by some people making a personal choice when others are left free to act irresponsibly...

No doubt;
https://www.zeroh...-private

Cantdrive Still can't drive, driving his wheelbarrow right into his own sockpuppet, it was quite a bang. Definitely not helping in the accumulation brain cells they so desperately needs.

Jan 27, 2019
lol, no more junkets to Paris , Davos

You snooze every time you try to make a rational thought, and always end up losing.... Again lol..

Jan 27, 2019
Definitely not helping in the accumulation brain cells they so desperately needs.

You type out this gibberish then claim I desperately needs accumulation brain cells....

Jan 27, 2019
@parsec, seems like the 2018 CO2 ppm forcast is significantly off, oepsie ...
I dont know anyone denying climate change, but appently you do, please name a few, that would make the discussion a lot more substantial.

Jan 27, 2019
@parsec, seems like the 2018 CO2 ppm forcast is significantly off, oepsie ...
I dont know anyone denying climate change, but appently you do, please name a few, that would make the discussion a lot more substantial.

Jan 27, 2019
@parsec, seems like the 2018 CO2 ppm forcast is significantly off, oepsie ...
I dont know anyone denying climate change, but appently you do, please name a few, that would make the discussion a lot more substantial.

Jan 27, 2019
This comment has been removed by a moderator.

Jan 28, 2019
This comment has been removed by a moderator.

Jan 28, 2019
Definitely not helping in the accumulation brain cells they so desperately needs.

You type out this gibberish then claim I desperately needs accumulation brain cells....


Everyone knows it's "need" or does your intellect fail to understand the basics of figuring that out (which is likely the case) ;)

Jan 28, 2019
the sky is falling the sky is falling quick call algore

Anonym518498 and his own socks antisciencegorilla,waterprophet,cantdrive fell off the tree, and the sky fell right on top of him lol

Jan 28, 2019
the sky is falling the sky is falling quick call algore

the gorilla fever really coming on strong, quoting al gore ?? lol... al gore is not a scientist just in case you still not sure ;)

Jan 28, 2019
I can't help but wonder what climate change deniers think when they see the actual data reflecting the CO2 changes,


Who cares? CO2 is not a poison you meathead.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more