Computer models show possible impact to world's oceans of four major stressors due to climate change

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An international team of researchers has developed a computer model that makes predictions regarding four major stressors to the world's oceans over the next several decades. In their paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the team describes the factors that went into the model and how it can be tuned to make predictions based on estimates of greenhouse gas emissions over the coming years.

Most people know that if the planet heats up, so, too, will the world's oceans. Scientists have been conducting experiments designed to understand what that might mean for sea life—but as the researchers with this new effort note, to date, not much work has been done to unite current findings regarding stressors (changes to marine conditions) to predict when certain changes might come about, or if there might be some overlap.

To create their model, the researchers added information about four main stressors: pH level (more CO2 makes the water more acidic), primary production (availability of food), and water temperature and oxygen levels in the water. Then, they ran 12 climate models to give their own model more information regarding where each of the stressor types was likely to have an impact and when.

The model predicted that within just 15 years more than half of the world's oceans will be reacting to more than one of the four stressors—by 2050, that number will jump to 86 percent. These estimates were based on the status quo, meaning emissions levels remain at current levels. If the countries that signed the Paris agreement come through with their pledges, however, the model showed that could put off the changes due to stressors by approximately 20 years. It also showed that changes in pH levels are likely to have the earliest impact—indeed virtually all of the oceans have already been impacted. They note that particular stressors and their degree of impact will almost certainly vary between geographical areas and types of marine life in that area. They also note that their model is not capable of detailing a timeline for overlap between the —they point out a current example in which both oxygen and pH levels move lower in one part of the ocean, causing corals and crustaceans to become more sensitive to changes in . The model is not able to predict which sorts of adaptions marine life might make, or which are likely to survive under different scenarios.

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More information: Stephanie A. Henson et al. Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems, Nature Communications (2017). DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14682
Journal information: Nature Communications

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Citation: Computer models show possible impact to world's oceans of four major stressors due to climate change (2017, March 8) retrieved 19 July 2019 from
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Mar 08, 2017
gee willikers wait until it's as warm as it was during the Medieval Climate Optimum when wheat, barley and cattle were raised on Greenland (for 400 years).

Mar 08, 2017
2050 seems to become a very interesting year.

- From 2050 onwards we won't be able to feed all people on Earth.
- About 2050 we will exceed 2 critical temperature thresholds.
- Possible collapse of some parts of the oceans by 2050?

Mar 08, 2017
Alrightie.... let's round up the monkeys shall we, shooti aka antigoracle,dogbert,waterprophet and his other 40 puppets once again demonstrates he is very much capable
of shooting the potty miss... (as always) BUT where's your puppet's ? ?
I thought we were going to have some fun ?? You know how i like to put you and your sock monkeys through the chores of expressing your inner selves ;) :D

Mar 08, 2017
We will be gone before it gets that bad. Our life-support system, the environment will not be able to support us.

Ocean acidification is already having an impact, temperature affects other life, and the progressing climatic instability will deal us multiple blows.

Mar 08, 2017

This climate fraud has got to be stopped!

100s of billions of your and my money are being diverted to people like Al Gore and big corporations. True science has been perverted by government grants. Our universities are willing co-conspirators to this misuse of public funds. People need to be indited and jailed for this scheme!

Mar 08, 2017
Why do you project the ethics of your profession onto science, which requires proof and repeatability?

Mar 08, 2017
Re: "2050 seems to become a very interesting year ..."

Scientific models are not crystal balls, people.

Mar 09, 2017
100s of billions of your and my money are being diverted to people like Al Gore and big corporations.

Sorry, I have to ask.

Do you have any evidence at all that 100s of billions are being being diverted to people like Al Gore and big corporations? or are you just scare mongering and blaming everything on some massive international multi decade conspiracy?

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