Hurricane season expected to be weaker than normal

August 6, 2015

Hurricane A
US weather forcasters said Thursday there is a 90 percent chance that the 2015 hurricane season in the Atlantic, which runs through November 1, will be less active than normal.

Earlier predictions had placed the likelihood of a below-normal season at 70 percent, but the latest projections raise that likelihood to a record high confidence level.

There is a ten percent chance the will be near-normal and "no realistic expectation" the season could be above-normal.

The new projections, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Climate Prediction Center, lower the predicted number of hurricanes from between three and six to between one and four. Of those, one, at most, is expected to become a , of category 3 or higher.

They are predicting six to 10 named storms.

The official seasonal averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. NOAA has classified only three of the previous 20 seasons as below-normal, including two of the past six seasons.

Three named storms have already occurred this year off the United States, which are included in NOAA's predicted tally. Two of those made landfall, Ana in May in South Carolina and Bill in June in Texas.

Despite Ana's premature arrival the official hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 31.

The peak months are generally mid-August through October, as NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell cautioned. "Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started," he said.

His team attributes the high likelihood of a below-average season to the El Niño weather system, which has been strengthening and which creates atmospheric conditions that make it difficult for storms to develop.

They also noted the dampening effects of below-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Hurricane formation is associated with warmer waters.

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2 / 5 (4) Aug 06, 2015
They also noted the dampening effects of below-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Hurricane formation is associated with warmer waters.

O GloBULL warming, Where art thou?
1 / 5 (3) Aug 07, 2015
Hmmm.... where are the AGW Chicken Littles?
2 / 5 (4) Aug 07, 2015
Where is global warming, asks the tinfoil hat crowd? Look around the globe.

1 / 5 (3) Aug 07, 2015
Wow, a Chicken Little who does not know the difference between weather and climate.
1 / 5 (2) Aug 07, 2015
US in Longest 'Hurricane Drought' in Recorded History

2.3 / 5 (3) Aug 07, 2015
Le sigh. I posted that article because it was handy in my feed. I don't have the time to google up all the references to the ongoing regional heat waves and above average temps worldwide. Ignoring reality will not change reality. Enjoy your dream world for however long you can sustain your imaginary scenario; sooner or later even you will not be able to ignore the consequences of atmospheric carbon accumulation.
1 / 5 (2) Aug 07, 2015
it was handy in my feed

You AGW Chicken Littles, really do gobble up all the GloBULL warming lies you can get.
1 / 5 (2) Aug 07, 2015
I doubt this story is making the Chicken Little newsfeed.

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