Future for warming US: Not just the heat but the humanity

Future for warming US: Not just the heat but the humanity
In this July 6, 2010 fik photo, a construction worker is backlit from the morning sun while working on a roof in the heat in Chapel Hill, N.C. as temperatures inched into at least the 90s from Maine to Texas and into the Southwest and Death Valley, the mid-Atlantic is embarking on a string of intensely hot days, with temperatures in some places closing in on 100-plus degrees. The combination of global warming and people moving south and west means that by mid-century four to six times more Americans will be sweating through days with extreme heat than just 15 years ago, a new study says. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome, File)

The combination of global warming and shifting population means that by mid-century, there will be a huge increase in the number of Americans sweating through days that are extremely hot, a new study says.

People are migrating into areas—especially in the South—where the heat is likely to increase more, said the authors of a study published Monday by the journal Nature Climate Change. The study highlighted the Houston-Dallas-San Antonio and Atlanta-Charlotte-Raleigh corridors as the places where the double whammy looks to be the biggest.

"It's not just the that is changing in the future," said study co-author Linda Mearns, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. "It is many things: how many people and where people are that affects their exposure to climate changes."

In a unique study looking at the interplay of projected changes in climate and population, scientists tried to characterize the number of people who will feel temperatures of 95 degrees or higher and how often they will feel it. They used a figure called person days for the extreme heat to reflect both the length of time heat waves continued and how many people felt it by multiplying people affected by how many days they felt the heat.

Between 1970 and 2000, the U.S. averaged about 2.3 billion person days of each year. But between 2040 and 2070 that number will be between 10 and 14 billion person days a year, according to the study.

The biggest projected increases in person days is the Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas census region where by mid-century heat exposure will increase by 2.7 billion person days. Right behind is south Atlantic region of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and Washington, D.C., where heat exposure is projected to increase by 2.2 billion person days. New England gets off the easiest with an increase of only 71 million person days.

The scientists used 11 different climate models based on current trends of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions and matched those with demographic trends. Both the increased heat and population shifts had about equal effects but together they made matters even worse, said lead author Bryan Jones, a population geographer at the City University of New York.

Exposure of US population to extreme heat could quadruple by mid-century
Expected increase in average annual person-days of exposure to extreme heat for each US Census Division when comparing the period 1971-2000 to the period 2041-2070. Person-days are calculated by multiplying the number of days when the temperature is expected to hit at least 95 degrees by the number of people who are projected to live in the areas where extreme heat is occurring. The scale is in billions. Credit: ©UCAR.

The question is, will be people adapt by changing their lifestyle, such as staying indoors and using more air conditioning, or will they move to cooler climates. Jones said it is unlikely that people will move to cooler areas to escape the , saying historically people tend to move away from colder areas and into warmer areas like Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.

The scientists chose a threshold of 95 degrees because "at 95 people really, really start feeling it," Mearns said. "Even in a dry climate and I'm sitting here in Boulder, Colorado."

Several outside scientists praised the study. University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd said the problem is likely even worse when you take into consideration the fact that cities get hotter than rural areas.


Explore further

Study blames global warming for 75 percent of very hot days

More information: Future population exposure to US heat extremes, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2631
Journal information: Nature Climate Change

© 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Citation: Future for warming US: Not just the heat but the humanity (2015, May 18) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2015-05-future-humanity.html
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May 18, 2015

"Of course [the climate] concerns me, but of course, we don't know much about the causes of those things. We don't even know for sure whether it is more variable than it used to be. I mean the worst disasters were the Ice Ages, and nobody really understands for sure the causes of Ice Ages, so I'm not saying the climate disasters aren't real, I'm merely saying we don't know how to prevent them." - Freeman Dyson

"What I'm convinced of is that we don't understand climate." - Freeman Dyson

If Freeman Dyson doesn't understand something, how could you possibly understand it?

Answer: You cannot.

"I'm just saying I don't understand it (climate change) and neither does anybody else." - Freeman Dyson

Poj
May 18, 2015
The idea that one person who is knowledgeable (a retired physics professor) and thus the rest of us are not knowledgeable is ridiculous. It's fine if you respect Freeman Dyson and think he knows more than anyone else about Climate Change. That doesn't mean it's true. He's not God is he? Sheesh!

May 18, 2015
This Dyson worship is silly, as is all worship.

Learn to think for yourself.

May 18, 2015
He's not God is he?


But the IPCC or Mann is a god?

BTW, Dyson is not alone in his expert assessment of climate models.

Poj
May 18, 2015
Of course he's not. He has an opinion just like everyone else. I guess we'll all have to wait and see what happens, eh? Hmmmm......

May 18, 2015
It's not the heat but the stupidity.
Despite being the highest CO2 emitter, the US has been cooling since the 1930s
http://www.giss.n...nsen_07/

May 18, 2015
This Dyson worship is silly, as is all worship.

Learn to think for yourself.


Learn to think for yourself? This is NOT what you mean. You mean think as I do.

May 18, 2015
Give us your money, or the Earth gets it.

I want a clean Earth as much as anyone else, but this man-made climate change hoax/crime has got to be stopped.

May 18, 2015
"Learn to think for yourself? This is NOT what you mean. You mean think as I do."
--------------------------------------

No, that would be you talking. You are free to have your own opinion, but one based not on political prejudice or the projection of one's own character onto others in other fields.

May 18, 2015
"Learn to think for yourself? This is NOT what you mean. You mean think as I do."
--------------------------------------

No, that would be you talking. You are free to have your own opinion, but one based not on political prejudice or the projection of one's own character onto others in other fields.


So, tell me. How did YOU manage to abolish your prejudice? Your statement is invalid as there is NO WAY to have a true objective view of ANYTHING. Once again, you mean I should share your prejudice and accept your same projection of reality.

May 18, 2015
Your statement is invalid as there is NO WAY to have a true objective view of ANYTHING.

This is pointless meta-physical babble. The objective truths of some things are so well demonstrated that to challenge them either indicates insanity, or willful ignorance.

May 18, 2015
Give us your money, or the Earth gets it.

I want a clean Earth as much as anyone else, but this man-made climate change hoax/crime has got to be stopped.

So I suppose this means that global warming is not happening because God said he would not smite the Earth again? Well, the bible says that he did say that; however, God never said that he would prevent humanity from smiting the Earth, did he?

He's not God is he?


But the IPCC or Mann is a god?

BTW, Dyson is not alone in his expert assessment of climate models.

Wow, someone here said that IPCC or Mann is a God?

May 18, 2015
The monkeys really flocking together tonight, Shooti like in all his other posts yet again shot the potty miss straight into antisciencegorilla's eye, with both expelling dumb comments without any emperical scientific proof, and gorillamonkey quoting links he does not understand, and his new sockpuppet stevepig to pork his dumb comments on. monkeys i say 200 posts, put in some spunk and up it a level, we aint going to give you those bannanas for just the normal dumb comments, you gotta earn it !

May 18, 2015
Wow. So you're projecting Louisiana population to double by 2070...that's nothing special.

May 18, 2015
It's fine if you respect Freeman Dyson and think he knows more than anyone else about Climate Change. That doesn't mean it's true.

Especially since Dyson has said that he doesn't really know much about climate science.

May 19, 2015
"People are migrating into areas—especially in the South—where the heat is likely to increase more"

Sorry for being such a dumbass again but, i cant understand why the scenario above would be true.
Are people going to move to south "just because" or is it some well known scientific truth that people always migrate to south (within US borders though) even at the cost of their comfort?

May 19, 2015
People are migrating into areas—especially in the South—where the heat is likely to increase more,
Duh! In the light of the past couple of severe winters, and the aging of the population, is there any doubt as to why?


Jun 10, 2015
antigoracle FAILs in his claim
It's not the heat but the stupidity.
Despite being the highest CO2 emitter, the US has been cooling since the 1930s
http://www.giss.n...nsen_07/
The US is adjacent to large ice masses, so as these warm more cool air is added to the region, the link supplied confirms the world is warming despite local minima, this is nothing new, you can prove this with a bath and ice, its so very obvious to school kids yet antigoracle seems to fail again in understanding also that CO2 becomes well mixed & quickly.

antigoracle seems to imagine lots of statics and seems to imagine regions don't sum to make thw world's average of warming.

Also antigoracle does NOT understand in any way shape or form the key settled physics of AGW
https://en.wikipe...transfer

which derives this
http://en.wikiped..._forcing

Which is experimentally verified & proves AGW

Jun 11, 2015
Muttering Mike who pretends to know science, blabbers.
Which is experimentally verified & proves AGW


Show me these experiments.

Jun 11, 2015
Muttering Mike who pretends to know science, blabbers.
Which is experimentally verified & proves AGW


Show me these experiments.
@antig
I don't know about Mike, but "i" have already linked those studies to you

Lacis et al
Francis Vavrus et al
plus about two dozen more

you didn't read them then... why the sudden interest?
if i link them to you, will you read them?

Jun 12, 2015
antigoracle FAILs in research, FAILs in Science communication, FAILs & relies on ME - LOL !
Muttering Mike who pretends to know science, blabbers
Which is experimentally verified & proves AGW
Show me these experiments
This is this issue antigoracle is completely ignorant of, called google scholar, of course antigoracle would have to understand what it means to be a scholar so he might appreciate, understand & have intellect to have gained at least minimal university training in Physics to be apprised of just how Experimental design has progressed to be definitive.

In other words, way over antigoracle's head by many orders of magnitude

Start here 450 articles, then get your nurse to take you to the nearest community college to learn Physics !

https://scholar.g...dt=0%2C5

Then go to a library, you remember before you got dementia, the one with cellulose & READ !

Jun 12, 2015
Muttering Mike, pretending to know science, blabbers again.
So Muttering Mike, which of those experiments proves AGW?

Jun 12, 2015
Muttering Mike, pretending to know science, blabbers again.
So Muttering Mike, which of those experiments proves AGW?


Simpering Anti asks a question that has been answered multiple times for him. The basis for AGW is that the Earth is imbalanced with respect to IR due to additional CO2 (and other GHGs produced by humans). This has been known for more than 100 years. The entire field of spectroscopy supports it and we have been using spectroscopy as a tool for more than 100 years. Only an imbecile such as Anti would keep asking the same question and getting the same answer and not understand it.

Jun 12, 2015
antigoracle impolitely asks
Muttering Mike, pretending to know science, blabbers again.
So Muttering Mike, which of those experiments proves AGW?
You don't appear credible making impolite blurts then expecting your question to be answered...

More mature antigoracle less ugly, be polite but, first bear in mind you need education in Physics to be able to understand experimental methods.

Lets see if you can craft an alternative google scholar search string specifically for radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases, start by reading through the references offered at the end of each of these wikipedia pages, can you do that & NOT be reliant on little ME ?
https://en.wikipe..._forcing

https://en.wikipe...transfer

Why haven't your employers antigoracle prepared you far better or rather chosen someone with a base education in Physics so they might actually be able to articulate dialectic more intelligently ?

Why are you here ?

Jun 13, 2015
Muttering Mike confirms he's pretending to know science by just blabbering.
Muttering Mike you blabbered the following:
Which is experimentally verified & proves AGW


So, I'll ask again. Show me a single experiment that proves AGW.

Jun 14, 2015
antigoracle again impolitely
Muttering Mike confirms he's pretending to know science by just blabbering.
Muttering Mike you blabbered the following:
Which is experimentally verified & proves AGW
So, I'll ask again. Show me a single experiment that proves AGW
No antigoracle I'm fed up spoon feeding you, go to physics forums here, ask politely with wider audience

Why in hell do you focus on me, you're an ignorant paid flunky & refuse to learn & refuse to read the many links supplied & refuse to use google competently !

Get a f..king education antigoracle !

antogoracle physics forums here https://www.physicsforums.com/

I don't use my name there for obvious reasons, see if you can exercise some intelligence:-

1. Politely post a question with sincerity & intelligence
2. Act on the answer by getting educated in essentials
3. Thank the respondents politely

Whilst at it, see if you are smart enough can work out what nick I use on there ;-)

ie Go away

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