Last decade's slow-down in global warming enhanced by an unusual climate anomaly

A hiatus in global warming ongoing since 2001 is due to a combination of a natural cooling phase, known as multidecadal variability (MDV) and a downturn of the secular warming trend. The exact causes of the latter, unique in the entire observational record going back to 1850, are still to be identified, according to an article by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC).

The earth hasn't warmed at the same pace during the 20th century. The noticeable temperature increases during some periods interspersed with fairly stable or decreasing levels during others have been explained as a combination of secular global warming (likely manmade) and natural climate variability. We are currently, in the early 21st century, experiencing a hiatus period, during which surface temperatures have not risen at the same rate as higher atmospheric radiative forcing.

JRC scientists analysed surface temperature data records – which began in 1850 – to separate natural variations from secular (i.e., long-term) trends. They identified three hiatus periods (1878-1907, 1945-1969 and 2001 to date), during which global warming slowed down. These hiatus periods coincide with natural cooling phases – the multidecadal variability (MDV), most likely caused by natural oceanic oscillations. The scientists therefore conclude that the MDV is the main cause of these hiatus periods during which decelerated.

However, they found that the current hiatus period is, for the first time, particularly strongly influenced by changes in the secular trend, which shows a strong acceleration from 1992-2001 and a deceleration from 2002 to 2013. Such rapid and strong fluctuations in the secular warming rate are unprecedented.

This unique fluctuation in the recent secular warming rate could have several causes, such as recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the accelerated melting of Arctic ice, changes in the deep ocean heat storage or the increasing content of aerosols in the stratosphere. The authors recommend further scientific investigation of the causes and consequences of this change, in order to address whether the global climate sensitivity has recently changed. Such research is crucial to understanding current climate conditions and creating plausible scenarios of future climate evolution.


Explore further

Cause of global warming hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean

More information: Macias D., Stips A., Garcia-Gorriz E. (2014) "Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Technique to Study the Recent Hiatus in the Global Surface Temperature Record." Plos One. dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107222
Journal information: PLoS ONE

Provided by European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Citation: Last decade's slow-down in global warming enhanced by an unusual climate anomaly (2014, September 11) retrieved 21 July 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2014-09-decade-slow-down-global-unusual-climate.html
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Sep 11, 2014
Explanation number n, where n is a large number. (Hint: your models don't work and your predictions are based on poor, biased understanding)

Sep 11, 2014
Has anyone noticed those who want to protect the Earth follow science, while the Deniers follow only money?

They are driven by political prejudice, not science.

Sep 11, 2014
Perhaps orti could look up the ten hottest years in history, and get back to us.

Sep 11, 2014
The AGW Cult "science" is settled.
The weather isn't.
The AGW Cult deceit is unsettling.

Sep 11, 2014
Antigoricle wants to tell us about the acidification of the oceans. He is dodging my questions.

Sep 11, 2014
Antigoricle wants to tell us about the ten hottest years in history, but the numbers are not to his liking.

http://www.climat...globally


Sep 11, 2014
which shows a strong acceleration from 1992-2001 and a deceleration from 2002 to 2013.


Isn't that also the same time frame as the last couple solar cycles?

http://cbdakota.f...-now.png

Just sayin...

Sep 11, 2014
http://www.climat...globally

And you have yet to respond to my many questions regarding ocean acidification.

Why not?

Sep 11, 2014
gkam
please don't use inadequate 'scare tactics' links when trying to force feed AGW, they're easy to debunk...
http://wattsupwit...mec1.gif
We're not even as warm as Roman times, let alone the "10 Hottest Years on Record".

Try again

Sep 11, 2014
"Isn't that also the same time frame as the last couple solar cycles? "
-------------------------------------

You are confusing the magnetic field of the Earth with other phenomena.

Sep 11, 2014
That was the magnetic field (in terms of pole strength/period) of the Sun homeboy.

Try again

Sep 11, 2014
"The snowfall in downtown Rapid City is the earliest in the city since 1888, the NWS said. The previous early snowfall mark was seven-tenths of an inch on Sept. 13, 1970. "
http://www.argusl...5434275/

Sep 11, 2014
Scroofinator, let's discuss it, shall we? From where did you get your "information"?

It is difficult to debate with AGW Deniers, because they cannot discern between real science and the pap they get from their political sources.

No reputable scientists support your views.


Sep 11, 2014
"You know, one of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror."

--Bush interview with CBS News' Katie Couric, Sept. 6, 2006

This game of Rygg's is fun.

Sep 11, 2014
From where did you get your "information"?

From the graph.

It is difficult to debate with AGW Deniers

I'm not a denier, just a skeptic. GHGs do play a role in climate change, but it is currently undefined. Truth is we don't know exactly what GHGs influence is.

No reputable scientists support your views

Who cares about reputable? I sure don't. Give me any scientist to help me run with these ideas, I think I would rather stay away from the peer review crowd.

How can anyone dispute the correlation between a "strong acceleration from 1992-2001 and a deceleration from 2002 to 2013", and
http://wattsupwit...oon1.png


Sep 11, 2014
You are showing me a graph of magnetic field strength. We already know about it. Can you follow it back to prove anything?


Sep 11, 2014
"Bush said, "If we leave Iraq before the job is done, it will create a terrorist state in the heart of the Middle East, a terrorist state much more dangerous than Afghanistan was before we removed the Taliban, a terrorist state with the capacity to fund its activities because of the oil reserves of Iraq."

What Bush warned of eight years ago is exactly what has happened."
"Withdrawal would have emboldened these radicals and extremists. It would have confirmed their belief that our nations were weak. It would help them gain new recruits, new resources. It would cause them to believe they could strike free nations at their choice.

Withdrawal would have increased the probability that coalition troops would be forced to return to Iraq one day, and confront an enemy that is even more dangerous. Failure in Iraq should be unacceptable to the civilized world. The risks are enormous."

http://www.breitb...st-state

Sep 11, 2014
"Oh, no, we're not going to have any casualties."

--Bush discussing the Iraq war with Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson in 2003, as quoted by Robertson

Sep 11, 2014
"The video above is Barack Obama in December of 2011 declaring the mission in Iraq accomplished -- in his words, a "success." According to the president, we were leaving behind an Iraq that was "stable and self-reliant."

Except we weren't, and Obama knew it and so did anyone else paying attention.

Oh, the war in Iraq was won, but it wouldn't stay won without an American presence. "
"In early 1973, North Vietnam and the Viet Cong knew they were defeated, came to the Paris Peace Accords, and agreed to end their aggression against our allies in the sovereign and free nation of South Vietnam.

With the war won, America pulled our troops. In order to keep the peace, we had to only agree to supply our allies in the South with any military hardware they would need should the North Vietnamese attempt to again invade the South.

The Vietnam War was won… until Democrats chose to intentionally lose it. "
http://www.breitb...n-wars-h

Sep 11, 2014
"Obama, Democrats, and the media have all been pushing for the same result in Iraq.

The only difference is that a Communist South Vietnam was never a threat to America.

The terrorist nation-state of ISIS, or whatever they call it, is America's worst nightmare realized.

Obama describes ISIS as "junior varsity."

Obama is a liar. "
http://www.breitb...o-follow

"Barack Obama does CAIR's bidding, says ISIS is 'not Islamic'"
http://www.examin...-islamic

Sep 11, 2014
"No," Obama said. "What I would not have done is left 10,000 troops in Iraq that would tie us down. That certainly would not help us in the Middle East."
""Here's one thing … I've learned as commander in chief," Obama said. "You've got to be clear, both to our allies and our enemies, about where you stand and what you mean.""
http://www.washin...fferent/

Sep 11, 2014
"He (Cheney) cited the president's (Obama) remarks at a fundraiser last month during which he (Obama) credited post-9/11 security measures for making Americans "in the here and now, pretty safe."

"Nice to hear," Cheney quipped to chuckles from the audience, "especially from someone who used to speak so disparagingly about the steps we took after 9/11." The problem, he went on, is that "President Obama seems willfully blind to one of the key facts about the post-9/11 security apparatus: It is not self-sustaining. Those programs and policies must be kept strong and current."
http://www.cbsnew...-record/

Sep 11, 2014
@rggy

Your quotes on Vietnam make me puke. The war was never won. Nixon and Kissenger cynically knew the North weren't going to honor the peace treaty and without a sizeable amount of American troops the South couldn't prevail against the North.


Sep 11, 2014
gkam
please don't use inadequate 'scare tactics' links when trying to force feed AGW, they're easy to debunk...
WUWT bollocks...
We're not even as warm as Roman times, let alone the "10 Hottest Years on Record".

Try again

Really?
"Despite substantial uncertainties, especially for the period prior to 1600 for which data are scarce, the warmest period of the last 2,000 years prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100, but temperatures were probably between 0.1 °C and 0.2 °C below the 1961 to 1990 mean and significantly below the level shown by instrumental data after 1980. Proxy records from different regions show peak warmth at different times during the Medieval Warm Period, indicating the heterogeneous nature of climate at the time. Temperatures in some regions matched or exceeded recent temperatures in these regions, but globally the MWP was cooler than recent global temps."
http://en.m.wikip...m_Period


Sep 11, 2014
"The snowfall in downtown Rapid City is the earliest in the city since 1888, the NWS said. The previous early snowfall mark was seven-tenths of an inch on Sept. 13, 1970. "
http://www.argusl...5434275/

Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.


Sep 11, 2014
We need some more silly and irrelevant cuttings and pastings by Rygg.

He has a quota to fulfill for "Five-Deferment Dick" Cheney.

Sep 11, 2014
Has everyone noticed global warming hasn't stopped, but the rate has slowed by these other factors? As the rate slows, the additional energy is put into more extreme weather. Look at the graphs and see the changes in extremes.

Sep 11, 2014
runrig, what does it matter where the graph comes from, I didn't link to a WUWT article. It's still data extrapolated from the Vostok ice cores.

Sep 11, 2014
I do not understand the continued conservative opposition to ending Global Climate Change, and saving the Earth.

They did not need absolute proof before they mass-murdered those 200,000 Iraqi civilians. Why do they need it now?

Sep 11, 2014
Has everyone noticed global warming hasn't stopped, but the rate has slowed by these other factors? As the rate slows, the additional energy is put into more extreme weather. Look at the graphs and see the changes in extremes.


When you say look at the graphs you need to provide links.

Sep 11, 2014
"John Yoo, a former Bush administration lawyer and one of the primary architects of the "strong executive" theory of presidential power, told BuzzFeed News, "Obama has adopted the same view of war powers as the Bush administration.""
""What is remarkable," Yoo told BuzzFeed News, "is not that Obama eventually had to exercise the powers of his predecessors to protect American national security, but that his party in Congress, and his allies in the media and the universities, have remained so silent about it.""
http://www.buzzfe...#2wwjkas

Sep 11, 2014
Has everyone noticed global warming hasn't stopped, but the rate has slowed by these other factors?

What are "these other factors"?
As the rate slows, the additional energy is put into more extreme weather

This is similar to what I've stated many times on this site, so like Vietvet said please provide some links. Essentially the more GHGs in the system, the more energy.

Sep 11, 2014
The other factors are mainly in the temperature increases in the mid-oceans. I will find the link.

Okay, here's one.

http://www.skepti...1998.htm

Sep 11, 2014
Interesting you talk about George Bush.
Oil is the cause of Global Warming, or more appropriately Global Heating or Global Melting. Not so much CO2 or temperature increase.

The counties that are on the terror list are identically that won't sell us oil.
I think when our "good Muslims" realized that their oil was running out, it spurred us to claim Iraq. Now I also think the reason ISIS is so horrible is they don't want to give us oil either.

So many lives, doesn't that make you want to go green?

Anybody notice that our media has been trying to get us to attack Syria for years, now with ISIS, President Obama apparently doesn't even need our approval.

Sep 12, 2014
To whom do you speak?

Sep 12, 2014
runrig, what does it matter where the graph comes from, I didn't link to a WUWT article. It's still data extrapolated from the Vostok ice cores.

Scroofy... It does matter because everything on WUWT is spun to deny AGW. Greenland is NOT the globe. We are not talking about Anthro Greenland Warming are we?

Can you not understand why it is the Greenland is likely to be so prone to climatic change. If not I can explain.

Sep 12, 2014
Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.

And so, now he pretends he knows climate.

Sep 12, 2014
Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.

And so, now he pretends he knows climate.

That's like saying a heart surgeon can't advise you of the long-term prospects for your organ.
But then I defer to your superior knowledge on the subject.

Sep 12, 2014
Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.

And so, now he pretends he knows climate.

That's like saying a heart surgeon can't advise you of the long-term prospects for your organ.
But then I defer to your superior knowledge on the subject.


Run, he might actually think you are serious. AntiEm is about as dumb as a fence post and doesn't understand irony when it occurs.

AntiEm has yet to demonstrate any understanding of climate, weather, fluid dynamics (and the list goes on). You, on the other hand, have provided excellent information about both climate and weather. Sigh... Just keep up the good work, and we know AntiEm will keep up his uninformed comments.

Sep 12, 2014
Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.

And so, now he pretends he knows climate.

That's like saying a heart surgeon can't advise you of the long-term prospects for your organ.
But then I defer to your superior knowledge on the subject.

Wow!! Now you are a heart surgeon. Too late, as you have already prostrated yourself to -
No more Polar bears - False "Profit" Al
Hockey schtick - Mann
Climategate - Jones

Sep 12, 2014
Greenland is NOT the globe


Umm, Vostok is in Antarctica...
http://cdiac.ornl...tok.html

Sep 12, 2014
Greenland is NOT the globe


Umm, Vostok is in Antarctica...
http://cdiac.ornl...tok.html


"The extension of the Vostok CO2 record shows the present-day levels of CO2 are unprecedented during the past 420 kyr."

I guess you missed that part of the paper.

Sep 12, 2014
"Umm, Vostok is in Antarctica..."

They share the same atmosphere.

Sep 12, 2014
"Umm, Vostok is in Antarctica..."

They share the same atmosphere.

Assumes CO2 is 'well mixed'.
A new satellite is supposed to verify.

http://oco.jpl.na...mission/

Sep 12, 2014
Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.

And so, now he pretends he knows climate.

That's like saying a heart surgeon can't advise you of the long-term prospects for your organ.
But then I defer to your superior knowledge on the subject.

Wow!! Now you are a heart surgeon. Too late, as you have already prostrated yourself to -
No more Polar bears - False "Profit" Al
Hockey schtick - Mann
Climategate - Jones

Like I say ... nothing but a Troll.

Sep 12, 2014
I guess you missed that part of the paper.

I guess you missed the part where I never denied the high levels of CO2, ass. Humans have elevated the levels of GHG, but those effects are not fully understood regardless of what AGW preaches.

Sep 12, 2014
Why are the folk who need absolute proof before we can save the Earth are the same ones who needed no proof at all to kill 200,000 Iraqi civilians?

Sep 12, 2014
Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.

And so, now he pretends he knows climate.

That's like saying a heart surgeon can't advise you of the long-term prospects for your organ.
But then I defer to your superior knowledge on the subject.

Wow!! Now you are a heart surgeon. Too late, as you have already prostrated yourself to -
No more Polar bears - False "Profit" Al
Hockey schtick - Mann
Climategate - Jones

Like I say ... nothing but a Troll.

Like I say ... nothing but a Fool.

Sep 12, 2014
Can antig stop calling names and answer the questions I posed to him regarding Climate Change and the acidification of the oceans?


Sep 12, 2014
Yes, weather is interesting - why I made a career of it.

And so, now he pretends he knows climate.

That's like saying a heart surgeon can't advise you of the long-term prospects for your organ.
But then I defer to your superior knowledge on the subject.

Wow!! Now you are a heart surgeon. Too late, as you have already prostrated yourself to -
No more Polar bears - False "Profit" Al
Hockey schtick - Mann
Climategate - Jones

Like I say ... nothing but a Troll.

Like I say ... nothing but a Fool.

Yep - sums you up.
Deniers regard those with scientific knowledge as fools.
They invert common sense and regard the way things work and the knowledge of same as abhorrent when contrary to their world-view.
Ah diddums ... a threat to your "tax dollars" am I?

Sep 12, 2014
Why are the folk who need absolute proof before we can save the Earth are the same ones who needed no proof at all to kill 200,000 Iraqi civilians?

"Even on a proportional basis, his (Stalin) crimes far surpass Mr. Hussein's, but figures of a million dead Iraqis, in war and through terror, may not be far from the mark, in a country of 22 million people.

Where the comparison seems closest is in the regime's mercilessly sadistic character. Iraq has its gulag of prisons, dungeons and torture chambers -- some of them acknowledged, like Abu Ghraib, and as many more disguised as hotels, sports centers and other innocent-sounding places. It has its overlapping secret-police agencies, and its culture of betrayal, with family members denouncing each other, and offices and factories becoming hives of perfidy."
http://www.nytime...led.html

Sep 12, 2014
"''Enemies of the state'' are eliminated, and their spouses, adult children and even cousins are often tortured and killed along with them.

Mr. Hussein even uses Stalinist maxims, including what an Iraqi defector identified as one of the dictator's favorites: ''If there is a person, then there is a problem. If there is no person, then there is no problem.''"
"Casualties from Iraq's gulag are harder to estimate. Accounts collected by Western human rights groups from Iraqi émigrés and defectors have suggested that the number of those who have ''disappeared'' into the hands of the secret police, never to be heard from again, could be 200,000. "
http://www.nytime...wanted=2

Sep 12, 2014
Rygg needs a tour of the Bush secret torture cells.

Sep 12, 2014
Rygg needs a tour of the Bush secret torture cells.


You have to keep in mind that ryggy is not well. He suffers from Obsessive Compulsive Disorder besides his Delusional Paranoia.

Sep 12, 2014
It's interesting how so many 'liberals' will forgive the torture and murder of millions by their fellow socialists.

Sep 12, 2014
STFU about politics, this isn't an article on Obama's battle plan. Take that shit to one of the other dozen sites you argue at.


Sep 12, 2014
"European Union leaders announced they will be consolidating energy and environmental goals under a new commissioner, effectively axing the intergovernmental groups' climate arm as green policies are making it harder for citizens to pay their power bills."
http://dailycalle...ruggles/

Scroo, tell the 'liberals'. They started it on this thread and I will respond in kind.

Sep 12, 2014
More than 200,000 civilians were killed in the Bush Wars for oil, which they even failed to accomplish.

Sep 12, 2014
@ryggy
"Scroo, tell the 'liberals'. They started it on this thread and I will respond in kind."

Every thread you post on you make political, no matter how far off topic.

Sep 12, 2014
AGW is political.

Sep 12, 2014
AGW is science, an outdated one, but it's still rooted in science. Politicians and lobbyist make it political, so if you want to dump this shit somewhere do it on Forbes, plenty of egos to bash heads with there.

Sep 12, 2014
Politicians and lobbyist make it political,


So do the 'scientists'.

Sep 12, 2014
Because they're paid by the lobbyists

Sep 12, 2014
Because they're paid by the lobbyists

Most are paid by the govt.

Sep 13, 2014
And so the circle is complete. What difference does it make to bitch here on a science site? Let's just stick to the article, which you haven't really added much to.

Sep 13, 2014
And so the circle is complete. What difference does it make to bitch here on a science site? Let's just stick to the article, which you haven't really added much to.

I pointed out an anomalous snow fall in Rapid City, SD.

Sep 13, 2014
Atta boy, way to point out something. How does this anomaly relate to the oceanic anomalies? Hint: think unstable jetstream.

Sep 13, 2014
Atta boy, way to point out something. How does this anomaly relate to the oceanic anomalies? Hint: think unstable jetstream.


What else is there to discuss unless you have access to the data and the code used in the paper.

Unstable jet stream? That has has NEVER happened in the entire history of the planet?

Sep 13, 2014
And so the circle is complete. What difference does it make to bitch here on a science site? Let's just stick to the article, which you haven't really added much to.

I pointed out an anomalous snow fall in Rapid City, SD.

It's called weather ryggy.
Do you want me to find anomalous heat somewhere on the planet?
Heat/cold moves around, the more so if the polar jet is weakened.... As AGW is doing.
You merely highlight a symptom of GW - not a reason for denying it.

Sep 13, 2014


Unstable jet stream? That has has NEVER happened in the entire history of the planet?

Like I keep saying ryggy -you don't do science.
The PJS is certainly weaker than decades ago.... Because the Arctic is warming faster than the temperate latitudes.
Stick to quote-mined political rants then everyone can just mark you a 1, ignore and move on.
There's a good boy/girl.

Sep 13, 2014
When the sh!t finally hits the fan on the AGW Cult's CO2 lies, it would be revealed that they falsified data from 1992 onwards. After all, they cannot be credited with intelligence, as confirmed by climate gate. So, there is only so much they can do to make a world, that's actually cooling, fit their global warming dogma.
I hope Hansen's minions are preparing for prison where hardened criminals would show them global warming.

Sep 13, 2014
You merely highlight a symptom of GW - not a reason for denying it.

ALL weather is now AGW.
How convenient.

Sep 13, 2014
When the sh!t finally hits the fan on the AGW Cult's CO2 lies, it would be revealed that they falsified data from 1992 onwards. After all, they cannot be credited with intelligence, as confirmed by climate gate. So, there is only so much they can do to make a world, that's actually cooling, fit their global warming dogma.
I hope Hansen's minions are preparing for prison where hardened criminals would show them global warming.

All the Troll can up with is hand-waving and bizarre conspiracy theory.
coupled of course with confirmatory bias that blinds to the obvious.


Sep 13, 2014
You merely highlight a symptom of GW - not a reason for denying it.

ALL weather is now AGW.
How convenient.

It's called meteorology .... and is not my or anybody elses responsibility to make you understand it.
1D denialist think has every part of the planet heating equally, both spatially and temporally.
Beyond ignorance. A simple rotating dish with centrally cooled and peripherally heated water demonstrates this fact.

Sep 13, 2014
In the peak of summer it's still way below freezing, yet the AGW morons would believe that the ice shelf melted enough, from above, to collapse.

Sep 13, 2014
In the peak of summer it's still way below freezing, yet the AGW morons would believe that the ice shelf melted enough, from above, to collapse.


Links?

A clue.

While the average summertime temp is -5C, the Larsen A and B ice sheets sit far enough North to develop ice melt ponds at peak temps.

Read more at: http://phys.org/n...html#jCp

Sep 14, 2014
1D denialist think has every part of the planet heating equally, both spatially and temporally.
Beyond ignorance. A simple rotating dish with centrally cooled and peripherally heated water demonstrates this fact.

You go riggy!
I love that model. Add some ice, some burning fuel and you already understand more than most!

Sep 15, 2014
So, time to update the model, ice is no longer the cardinal factor in global change.
It's water temperature like runrig believes.

https://www.faceb...fref=nf#

Things are going to change rapidly now if we don't change rapidly.

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