Twitter analysis provides stock predictions

Economists at the Technical University of Munich have developed a website that predicts individual stock trends. To this end, economists are using automatic text analysis methods to evaluate thousands of daily Twitter microblog messages, so-called "tweets". On www.TweetTrader.net , current forecasts are available for all S&P 500 listed stocks.

The share price of a stock reflects investor and analyst opinions about its prospects and indicates whether positive or negative developments are on the horizon. The micoblogging platform Twitter has become an important medium for the exchange of such viewpoints. Thousands of stock-related messages are broadcasted every day via Twitter. Twittering investors mark tweets according to company stock symbols, for example, "$AAPL" for the U.S. computer company Apple.

In a study, TUM economists showed that the sentiment from Twitter messages develops similar to the stock market and even leads by a day. The Munich-based analyzed 250,000 Twitter messages written in a six-month period and related to S&P 500 listed companies. The result: If an investor had oriented his share purchases according to the Twitter sentiment in the first half of 2010, he would have achieved an average rate of return of up to 15 percent.

The TUM economist Timm Sprenger explains, "If a user often gives good stock recommendations, he will, as a rule, have more followers and will be 'retweeted' (i.e., quoted) more often by other users. Hereby, with good recommendations are affirmed and receive greater weight in the overall analysis."


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More information: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf … ?abstract_id=1702854
Provided by Technische Universitaet Muenchen
Citation: Twitter analysis provides stock predictions (2011, April 4) retrieved 20 September 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2011-04-twitter-analysis-stock.html
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Apr 04, 2011
You realize that the social engineering media and "Search" giants are theoretically capable of world population control. After all, people freely give away all sorts of valuable information, both in terms of things which have "political" or "sentimental" value, and in terms of things which have "real" value.

There was even a "Law and Order" episode in which a computer guru hacked super computers in order to do something much like this, so that they could "predict" the stock market and therefore make billions in "unfair" profits.

If giants like Google, Facebook, and Twitter managed their situation well, they could design systems capable of doing just this, and further, actively manipulating the markets via propaganda.

In reality, they already do this through human nature. Take Yahoo, for example, and their list of ten things others viewed under the "Trending Now" headline. People who read tabloids and such are literally CONTROLLED and ADDICTED to this sort of manipulation.

Apr 04, 2011
So Yahoo can TRICK a significant number of viewers to click on the "trending now" links, where they are diverted to additional propaganda and brainwashing targetted to the specific type of individual who is likely to click on that link.

Is that link "really" Trending Now? Or does the tech giant/information harvesting service just want you to think that so they can use a false sense of "peer pressure" to persuade you into clicking on it yourself?

Peer pressure works, even if there are no "actual" peers doing the pressuring. The mere perception that your "peers" approve of something is enough to brainwash the weak minded into doing that themselves.

Knowing almost everything that happens on earth is a huge advantage for the tech giants, and what better way to do that than to trick the sheeple into doing it willingly via a "free" gossip engine and search engines?

Even job search engines are manipulative and herd people like cattle to the place THEY want you to go.

Apr 04, 2011
They compile permanent log books of anything and everything you have ever said or done.

If there is any internet record of it whatsoever, anywhere, then Google, facebook, twitter, yahoo, and probably microsoft HAVE A COPY OF IT ARCHIVED.

Apr 04, 2011
The whole stock market should be banned...

It creates lots of economical problems...

Like giving to much value to an internet company like myspace...

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