Scientists forecast nine more Atlantic hurricanes, five big ones

August 5, 2010
A tourist takes a dip into the sea in Cabo San Lucas, Baja California, Mexico as a hurricane approaches in 2006. The forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season calls for nine more hurricanes by November, including five major ones with winds topping 178 kilometers (110 miles) per hour, a Colorado State University study said Wednesday.

The forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season calls for nine more hurricanes by November, including five major ones with winds topping 178 kilometers (110 miles) per hour, a Colorado State University study said Wednesday.

The predictions for a "much more active than average" June-November season includes 18 named tropical storms, three of which -- Alex, Bonnie and Colin -- have already hit the region between June and August.

The predictions by CSU scientists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray confirm an earlier study that called for 10 hurricanes this season -- Alex became a hurricane with 150 kilometers (93 miles) per hour winds and struck Mexico's eastern shores on July 1.

With 18 tropical storms predicted, the 2010 season would best the average 9.6 tropical storms and 5.9 hurricanes recorded this past century, the study said.

The scientists attributed the unusually active season to the La Nina phenomenon that sees cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures and warmer ones in the Atlantic Ocean, giving rise to favorable hurricane-forming conditions.

is a cyclical phenomenon opposite to , which brings unusually warm ocean temperatures to the equatorial Pacific, but cooler temperatures to the Caribbean and the Atlantic.

"We estimate that 2010 will have... five major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 5.0)," the scientists said.

The CSU study put the chances of a major hurricane -- Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale -- striking US shores this season at 75 percent, compared to the last century's 52 percent average.

The chances of a major hurricane entering the , where a three-month BP oil spill was plugged Wednesday, were put at 49 percent, against a 30 percent average.

And the chances of a major storm slamming islands in the Caribbean Sea were put at 64 percent, against a 42 percent average.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale covers five categories ranging from 119 kilometers (74 miles) per hour to 249 kilometers (155 miles) per hour and above.

A Category Three storm is defined as causing "devastating damage," while categories four and five can wreak "catastrophic damage."

Explore further: Experts predict quieter Atlantic hurricane season

Related Stories

Experts predict quieter Atlantic hurricane season

August 4, 2009

Weather experts on Wednesday reduced the number of projected hurricanes in the north Atlantic this season to four, two of them major hurricanes with winds above 178 kilometers (111 miles) per hour.

Oil clean-up faces hurricane threat: forecast

June 2, 2010

Five major hurricanes are forecast to slam into the United States this year, potentially hampering efforts to clean up the devastating Gulf of Mexico oil spill, scientists reported Wednesday.

El Nino may calm 2006 hurricane season

September 7, 2006

Hurricane forecasters say a weather phenomenon called El Nino may make the rest of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quieter than predicted.

Busy Atlantic storm season predicted

August 2, 2005

U.S. storm forecasters say they expect 11 to 14 tropical storms with most developing into hurricanes over the remainder of the 2005 Atlantic storm season.

Recommended for you

Climate change intensifies droughts in Europe

April 23, 2018

Global warming will exacerbate soil droughts in Europe—droughts will last longer, affect greater areas, and have an impact on more people. If the Earth warms by three degrees Celsius, extreme events could become the normal ...

Gauging the effects of water scarcity on an irrigated planet

April 20, 2018

Growing global food demand, climate change, and climate policies favoring bioenergy production are expected to increase pressures on water resources around the world. Many analysts predict that water shortages will constrain ...

2 comments

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

zealous
Aug 05, 2010
This comment has been removed by a moderator.
deatopmg
5 / 5 (1) Aug 05, 2010
I'm w/ Zealous. What is CSU's past record of success with their crystal ball?

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.