Analysis: July was cool this year

August 3, 2010
This is a postcard from the future for Washington, DC. The 2010 dates are actual; 2050 dates are representative of average projections. Credit: Design by Remik Ziemlinski.

According to an analysis by Climate Central, July of 2010 will be remembered as a cool one, even in the northeast corridor.

Boston sweat through 8 days of above-90 degree Fahrenheit heat last month. New York City endured 14; Philadelphia suffered 17; and Washington, DC sweltered through 20. These numbers are all well above historical averages (5, 7, 11, and 13 days, respectively) -- but they are beneath consensus projections for the average July by just the middle of this century, assuming little action is taken to reduce of heat-trapping gases.

Under this scenario, Boston can expect an average of 12 July days above 90, New York can expect 16, Philadelphia 21, and Washington, DC 22.

Using a different measure, the monthly average temperature, July 2010 was also well above historical averages in northeast corridor cities, but about the same as temperatures projected for 2050.

Climate Central scientist Claudia Tebaldi conducted the analysis. More detail, illustrations and a description of methodology are available from Climate Central.

in a limited area for a limited time can't be taken as evidence for . However, July's heat comes in the context of a report just released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluding that the 2000's were easily the hottest decade since records began, with numerous other global indicators also pointing toward unequivocal warming. In addition, independent analyses by NOAA and NASA both indicate that January through June 2010 was the hottest such period on record. scientists project the long-term warming trend to continue and accelerate, in the absence of measures to reduce carbon emissions.

Heat stress is the largest weather-related cause of death in the United States. Hot summers also strain the electricity supply due to high demand for air conditioning, as widespread northeast brownouts this summer have testified. These problems are expected to intensify with further warming.

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3 / 5 (6) Aug 03, 2010
Perhaps I'm missing something, but if the temps in July 2010 were almost as warm as projected for 40 years into the future, wouldn't that mean that warming is way "ahead of schedule" rather than cooling? If scientists expected the average temps to be almost like July 2010, but not until 40 more years have passed, what does that mean?
1.7 / 5 (11) Aug 03, 2010
even in the northeast corridor
They apparently forgot to ask Russia. Moscow meteorologists said the city marked its second heat record in the past week when temperatures reached 99.86 degrees Fahrenheit.
4.2 / 5 (6) Aug 03, 2010
Perhaps I'm missing something, but if the temps in July 2010 were almost as warm as projected for 40 years into the future, wouldn't that mean that warming is way "ahead of schedule" rather than cooling? If scientists expected the average temps to be almost like July 2010, but not until 40 more years have passed, what does that mean?

The figures for 2010 were abnormally high and not the average. The article is attempting to state that current predictions show that 2050 will have an average July temperature equaling these anomalously hot days.
2.1 / 5 (7) Aug 03, 2010
The new RSS AMSU data reveal that the global temperature anomaly in July 2010 was +0.608 °C which similar to those +0.606 °C experienced in July 1998.

1.9 / 5 (9) Aug 03, 2010
I still have trouble predicting tomorrow's weather. Can someone show me how they projected 40 years into the future. And I mean other than the usual IPCC method of saying what you want to create the appropriate reaction, and then selecting data points that help support the desired reaction.

I think we should have a contest: Global-warming vs Global-cooling. Here how it works. Every month each team posts the data points which support their point of view, along with stories of course. We then have a vote to see who wins each month. After 24 months we decide who has won.

It's the only democratic way to predict the weather.
4.5 / 5 (8) Aug 03, 2010
Very poorly written lead for the article, to be sure.

It's unclear if this was an attempt at cleverness or humor, but, in any case, it is probably the worst headline I've ever read here on PHYSORG, but I suppose it will have the net effect of getting people to scan the article, since it blatantly disagrees with nearly everyone in the northern hemisphere's experience.
4 / 5 (8) Aug 04, 2010
joefarah: You said: "I think we should have a contest: Global-warming vs Global-cooling."

That ship has sailed. We now have evidence that each decade has gotten warmer for the past 40 years. Only those who are interested in picking points to produce an appearance of a question about the warming that we can easily see. The only valid questions are: "is humankind involved, can it be stopped, and is stopping it worth it." You could actually argue those points but it is much too late to argue that we are cooling instead of heating. If you are serious about thinking that we may be cooling, please put the evidence forward so we can address it. I'm sure Anthony Watt can probably help you.
2.5 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2010
If cool, it definitelly means not perfect....

Drought and wildfires in Russia have driven the price of wheat to the highest in almost two years. Prices for the staple crop have jumped 50% since late June, topping $7 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, BBC News reported.

1.7 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2010
Thermo, you know darn well that 40 years isn't a significant time span for climate. On climate scales 40 years is just data noise. Be realistic for just a little while please.

Increasing urban heat island effect is expected to accompany increased urbanization. If you bulldoze those cities and let the land grow back naturally, those temp increases will be gone. That's not climate change.

If you sample temperature info in the rural areas just outside those cities, you do not see what they are claiming here. This is cherry-picked missleading information.
1.7 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2010
Oh, and Berrien Moore III is one of the clowns responsible for the third IPCC report debacle. These people are tied in with those 11th hour kooks. This isn't a science article, it's a PR stunt.
3.3 / 5 (7) Aug 04, 2010
GSwift7: What I was pointing out is the folks on this forum who come in talking about "cooling." I completely agree that 40 years is not definitive (although it adds credibility and reduces uncertainty in predictions). However, if you look at some sites and listen to some folks - any blip downward, even a few years, leads them to think cooling and conspiracy. Reading your posts over the past few months certainly puts you in the conspiracy group.
2.5 / 5 (8) Aug 04, 2010
lol, conspiracy? no, just a lot of misinformed or underinformed people who talk about things they barely understand on television and in the press, along with a bunch of very emotional people who 'love the earth' and want to 'do something about it'. That's not a conspiracy, it's a movement. The green movement isn't a fantasy or a conspiracy is it? Quite a few conservationists are a bit over-zealous and are sometimes unreasonable, especially the ones who post on this site I think. It's not a conspiracy, it's just a consequence of having too many flower children and yuppie do-gooders who don't read enough to understand what they are talking about. And, if you try to tell them that they need to go look something up, they get offended because it hurts their feelings if you suggest that the things they are SO certain about aren't really as concrete as they feel they are. 40 years isn't even a complete data point on a climate graph. Most of them don't understand that.
1.7 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2010
Oh, and BTW, Climate Central IS tied in with the 11th hour people. And the 11th hour people are way over the edge. They've been in the papers for some of their crazy stunts. Moore, the head of Climate Central, was in charge of the IPCC summary and was highly criticized for lack of attention to peer review. So, I'm not sure why you rated that comment with a 1/5. It was exactly accurate.
3 / 5 (2) Aug 15, 2010
Say and believe what you want; but Southern California has had a very cool summer so far.
2.3 / 5 (3) Aug 18, 2010
but Southern California has had a very cool summer so far.

True. However that doesn't mean much if the glaciers keep melting. We don't have them in Southern California so it doesn't help with the glaciers.

I don't care if it gets a bit colder or warmer. I do care if the glaciers melt AND that is effected by greenhouse gases more then the equatorial temperatures are.


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