Super-typhoon global frequency could increase tenfold by 2100: Japanese researchers

May 04, 2010 The Yomiuri Shimbun

The frequency of violent typhoons whose winds exceed 194 kph (120.5 mph) could increase about tenfold by the end of this century due to the continuing trend of global warming, a team of Japanese government scientists has concluded.

The prediction was made by a research group at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

The team, led by Kazuyoshi Ouchi, used a to simulate cloud movement and calculate atmospheric conditions over the entire Earth in 14-square-kilometer sectors.

Until now, the smallest such area for which researchers could perform calculations was 20 square kilometers.

The researchers projected the number of global would fall by 25 percent by the end of this century. But they also found that in the same period, the average annual number of strong typhoons -- now just one per June-to-October typhoon season -- would rise to 10.

The calculation took into account predicted future carbon dioxide levels.

They said it was possible a strong typhoon with winds of more than 216 kph (134.2 mph), similar in strength to the 1959 Isewan Typhoon (internationally known as Super Typhoon Vera), would strike every year.

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User comments : 3

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TegiriNenashi
1 / 5 (3) May 04, 2010
Let's make the matter straight. Supercomputers (aka "mainframe"s) possess magical power only in Hollywood movies. As far as climate models go, they have extremely poor track record. Their research is worse than useless: the excessive heat produced during the simulations contributes to the alleged problem.
ormondotvos
3 / 5 (2) May 04, 2010
Now THAT is a maximally silly comment. Who is paying these commenters?
Azpod
1 / 5 (1) May 04, 2010
Yet another wild prediction from the alarmists. I expect this to be no more accurate than the wild predictions of the past that said the Earth would be doomed by 2010.