Report: NASA can't keep up with killer asteroids

Aug 12, 2009 By SETH BORENSTEIN , AP Science Writer
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(AP) -- NASA is charged with seeking out nearly all the asteroids that threaten Earth but doesn't have the money to do the job, a federal report says.

That's because even though Congress assigned the space agency this mission four years ago, it never gave NASA money to build the necessary telescopes, the new National Academy of Sciences report says. Specifically, NASA has been ordered to spot 90 percent of the potentially deadly rocks hurtling through space by 2020.

Even so, NASA says it's completed about one-third of its assignment with its current system.

NASA estimates that there are about 20,000 asteroids and comets in our solar system that are potential threats to Earth. They are larger than 460 feet in diameter - slightly smaller than the Superdome in New Orleans. So far, scientists know where about 6,000 of these objects are.

Rocks between 460 feet and 3,280 feet in diameter can devastate an entire region but not the entire globe, said Lindley Johnson, NASA's manager of the near-Earth objects program. Objects bigger than that are even more threatening, of course.

Just last month astronomers were surprised when an object of unknown size and origin bashed into Jupiter and created an Earth-sized bruise that is still spreading. Jupiter does get slammed more often than Earth because of its immense gravity, enormous size and location.

Disaster movies like "Armageddon" and near misses in previous years may have scared people and alerted them to a serious issue. But when it comes to doing something about monitoring the threat, the academy concluded "there has been relatively little effort by the U.S. government."

And the U.S. government is practically the only government doing anything at all, the report found.

"It shows we have a problem we're not addressing," said Louis Friedman, executive director of the Planetary Society, an advocacy group.

NASA calculated that to spot the asteroids as required by law would cost about $800 million between now and 2020, either with a new ground-based telescope or a space observation system, Johnson said. If NASA got only $300 million it could find most asteroids bigger than 1,000 feet across, he said.

But so far NASA has gotten neither sum.

It may never get the money, said John Logsdon, a space policy professor at George Washington University.

"The program is a little bit of a lame duck," Logsdon said. There is not a big enough group pushing for the money, he said.

At the moment, NASA has identified about five near-Earth objects that pose better than a 1-in-a-million risk of hitting our planet and being big enough to cause serious damage, Johnson said. That number changes from time to time, usually with new asteroids added and old ones removed as more information is gathered on their orbits.

The space rocks are keeping a closest eye on are a 430-foot diameter rock that has a 1-in-3,000 chance of hitting Earth in 2048 and a much-talked about , Apophis, which is twice that size and has a one-in-43,000 chance of hitting in 2036, 2037 or 2069.

Last month, started a new Web site for the public to learn about threatening near-Earth objects.

---

On the Net:

NASA's near-Earth object site: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch

©2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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User comments : 9

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GDM
not rated yet Aug 12, 2009
Ahh geez, Congress, you only get what you pay for. Maybe we need to hold a bake sale to raise money that might possibly save the Earth...or find some really good resources before they "find us"...
Mesafina
5 / 5 (2) Aug 12, 2009
Yes, asteroid mining will become one of man's most profitable industries in the decades to come.
Truth
5 / 5 (2) Aug 12, 2009
"NASA estimates that there are about 20,000 asteroids and comets in our solar system that are potential threats to Earth..." You've got to be kidding me! And we're pinching pennies???? Stop the world, I want to get off!!!
tealeebee
5 / 5 (3) Aug 12, 2009
Not only does astroid mining have great potentials for using resources already in space, but the asteroids themselves can be used on stations and interplanetary vessels as insulation as well as radiation and micrometeorite protection.

Surely the dangers are evident and warrant full speed attention on an international basis. The United Nations has agressively warned about diseases, so why not warn against this most acute health hazard as well?

Besides the near earth objects, there needs to be constant surveillance of the asteroid belt and also the trailing pile of junk behind the orbit of Jupiter. The various gas giants' rings also pose as potential dangers for loose objects being knocked into earth orbit.

In the wake of the recent crash into Jupiter, it somewhat puzzles me why attention is focused almost exclusively on a solar plane. Watchful devices should look up and down as well, so to speak, for incoming threats.
Bob_Kob
2 / 5 (1) Aug 13, 2009
Theres no point in this. If an asteroid were to hit earth and do significant damage, we would still be helpless to stop it even if we knew it was coming.
holoman
1 / 5 (1) Aug 13, 2009
NASA is as GOOD AS ITS LEADERSHIP. For many years the really smart scientist, entrependeurs, inventors have been held back, pigeon holed, and slammed for "non-goose thinking".

I say its high time for management to step back and un-chain the creative minds of these thinkers.
spacester
not rated yet Aug 15, 2009
Most of the rocks up there that are a threat cannot be observed from the Earth's surface because they are in the daytime sky 99.9% of the time (Aten asteroids). They occasionally peek above the horizon at dawn or dusk, and that's when we can catch a glimpse from Hawaii and elsewhere. If we're lucky.

In fact, many of the newly discovered ones are seen by using advanced techniques that use the bending of light by the atmosphere to see beyond the normal horizon.

Part of the politics here is that the Earth-based observation programs thus have diminishing returns, so if we really want to find them all, we'll need to build a space-based observatory. The funding would then presumably shift from one group of scientists and technicians to another, and there may be resistance to that change.

I do not know if such resistance actually exists because I've never ever read an article by anybody anywhere that brings up this transition. IMO Logsdon et al (Chapman, Yeoman, others) need to come clean on this if they truly want to find the rest of the rocks.
EarthlingX
not rated yet Aug 16, 2009
We have technology to change orbit of incoming death bringer, but no interest, because people can't look at the sky, if they can see it at all, while they have to watch their step.
Short sighted, non interested, bored, egocentric, under educated, sci-fi distorted view of the world only makes it worse.
This should really be international project, because it affects us all and technology developed for asteroid protection and utilization will open gates to the sky.
Birger
not rated yet Aug 16, 2009
It is interesting that the congress that is so parsimonous with grants to search for potential Earth impactors have their workplace practically on top of the biggest impact feature north of the Chixchulub impact basin!
The whole Chesapeake bay was originally carved out by an asteroid impact ca. 30 million years ago (simultaneous with a smaller mass extinction). It is partially filled with sediments, masking the telltale circular structure, but the impact sent tectites flying more than 1000 miles away.
As I mentioned in a letter to New Scientist many years ago, maybe we should dig up preserved asteroid fragments and put them on a permanent display, somewhere in central Washington D.C. !

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