'El Nino' arrives in Pacific for a months-long stay

Jul 09, 2009
Aerial view of a flooded area in Bolivia in 2007. US scientists on Thursday said that the El Nino warming trend of the Pacific Ocean waters has returned, bringing with it almost certain changes in weather patterns around the world.

US scientists on Thursday said that the El Nino warming trend of the Pacific Ocean waters has returned, bringing with it almost certain changes in weather patterns around the world.

The climatological effect -- the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters -- occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a statement that the current El Nino was likely to develop further during the next several months, with additional strengthening possible and is expected to last through early 2010.

In past years, El Nino has been known to suppress Atlantic activity and typically brings beneficial winter rain to the arid US southwest.

But the weather system also often brings damaging winter storms in California and turbulent weather across the southern United States.

El Nino also has been associated with severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

Jane Lubchenco, US undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said the agency plans to provide frequent updates to "industries, governments and emergency managers about El Nino may bring, so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy."

(c) 2009 AFP

Explore further: NASA sees Gonzalo affect Bermuda's ocean sediment: Stirred, not shaken

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

El Nino To Affect Weather In Colorado And Western U.S.

Dec 01, 2006

Colorado's late fall snowstorms could disappear by mid-December due to the influence of an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, said Klaus Wolter, a University of Colorado at Boulder and National Oceanic and Atmospheric ...

El Nino may calm 2006 hurricane season

Sep 07, 2006

Hurricane forecasters say a weather phenomenon called El Nino may make the rest of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quieter than predicted.

Forecasters say El Nino may be developing

Jun 08, 2009

(AP) -- A new El Nino could be approaching. Sea-surface temperatures have been warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, suggesting the potential for the development of the El Nino climate phenomenon this summer, according ...

El Nino may, or may not, soak California

Dec 15, 2006

El Nino, the periodic warming of Pacific waters, puzzles meteorologists who said they don't know whether it will bring needed rain to Southern California.

El Nino could last beyond spring

Dec 11, 2006

A University of Colorado weather expert has warned the El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean could survive past the upcoming spring.

Recommended for you

The ocean's living carbon pumps

1 hour ago

When we talk about global carbon fixation – "pumping" carbon out of the atmosphere and fixing it into organic molecules by photosynthesis – proper measurement is key to understanding this process. By ...

User comments : 14

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

WForWasteland
2.6 / 5 (10) Jul 09, 2009
And guess what? When this happens, IT ISN'T GLOBAL WARMING, as all the newspaper headlines are sure to declare... despite this being a NATURAL, ONGOING CYCLE. Nothing new; doomsday still isn't here. Sorry.
docknowledge
3.9 / 5 (8) Jul 10, 2009
Gosh, thanks for telling us WForWasteland! We could have just asked you, instead of professionals spending millions of dollars over decades to unravel the issues!

Do you know how to build a faster-than-light drive, and where the Holy Grail is, too? Be sure and keep us up-to-date on the latest from your extraordinary brain!
iamcrazy
1 / 5 (2) Jul 10, 2009
global warming killed jfk. wake up people!
Velanarris
1 / 5 (3) Jul 10, 2009
And guess what? When this happens, IT ISN'T GLOBAL WARMING, as all the newspaper headlines are sure to declare... despite this being a NATURAL, ONGOING CYCLE. Nothing new; doomsday still isn't here. Sorry.




You're 100% correct. Even the EPA's NCEE internal release criticizes the current AGW hypothesis and shows causative links with the PDO/ENO cycles. Looks like the "denialists" are starting to be vindicated.







http://cei.org/ce...-004.pdf







Warning: this is a long read and requires adobe acrobat.
thermodynamics
5 / 5 (3) Jul 10, 2009
Vel:

Did you forget to note that this "EPA" document is a copied unofficial ranting of an economist at EPA and is not an official EPA document. It might as well have been written by you. Note it is found at the CEI web site, not EPA. I am astonished that you would not have noted that this is an unofficial document by an economist who is in disagreement with the scientists at EPA. It is almost like you wanted the readers to believe this was the EPA point of view (which it is not). It is filled with disproven theories like the cosmic ray cloud theory. The EPA read it, analyzed it, and did not agree with it. You should have said that up-front.
Velanarris
1 / 5 (2) Jul 11, 2009
Thermodynamics,

How else would I know if someone had actually read it?

This was written and released by the NCEE. It wasn't a single economist. It was written by the National Center for Environmental Economics, an arm of the EPA.
http://yosemite.e...homepage
Noein
3 / 5 (4) Jul 11, 2009
Note it is found at the CEI web site, not EPA.


Exxon pays the CEI lots of $$$ to lie about global warming.

http://www.exxons...heet.php

I wonder how much $$$ was funneled to Alan Carlin?


thermodynamics
not rated yet Jul 12, 2009
Vel:

You need to check your work. This document was written by one person: Alan Carlin. It was never authorized by NCEE, and it was not released by EPA. The link you provided does not point to the document, it is only the home page for NCEE. Don't you know the difference between an authorized document and one that was neither commissioned nor released? One big give away is that it does not have an official EPA number. Each government agency has official document control numbers. This document does not. I am really surprised that you have been fooled into believing this was an official NCEE document. I have always thought you did better research than this.
Velanarris
1 / 5 (1) Jul 12, 2009
After reading the linked paper thermo, do you think the writer is off basee in his reservations, or do you think he's a crackpot?
JoulesBeef
not rated yet Jul 13, 2009
Velanarris
the so called suppressed report was pretty much copied of a skeptics blog and cites debunked and crap data.

he is a crack pot.

http://thelonggoo...ression/

WForWasteland
No one will claim el nino is caused by global warming.. It will add to the global warming temps just as la nina subtracts from it. We are likely to set records again like in 1998.



What might be global warming but we dont know.. is the fact that the cycle of el nino southern oscillation is speeding up.

Velanarris
not rated yet Jul 13, 2009

What might be global warming but we dont know.. is the fact that the cycle of el nino southern oscillation is speeding up.
How exactly is the cycle speeding up?
JoulesBeef
not rated yet Jul 13, 2009
We really arent sure... yet if it is global warmign caused.. that is why i said "might".

but the el nino cycle used to be a 12 year cycle and now it appears to be 3-5 years.



We have had variations in the past, so we are watching and studing this.



There is a lot of thought that a el nino is a mechanism for oceans to reduce the stored up heat, and that global warming will increase the frequency of el nino events.



But i wouldnt be much better than a denists if i suggested this is anywhere near accepted as a fact.


last I want to say, there is nothing wrong with skeptics, science demands you listen to them, as long as they offer science in return.
Alan Carlin, however, is not a skeptic, he is a denists.
A denists will deny in the face of science.
a denists will offer up previously debunked info.
a denists uses a blog as a source for a science paper

thermodynamics
not rated yet Jul 13, 2009
Vel:

After reading the paper I am convinced that the person who wrote it believed everything he wrote. However, I think it is the "belief" that betrays his conclusions. He did no independent analysis, adapted analysis from sites he agreed with and did not compare them to data that disagreed with his view. I just believe he is a political wog who does not understand the science.
Velanarris
not rated yet Jul 14, 2009
Vel:



After reading the paper I am convinced that the person who wrote it believed everything he wrote. However, I think it is the "belief" that betrays his conclusions. He did no independent analysis, adapted analysis from sites he agreed with and did not compare them to data that disagreed with his view. I just believe he is a political wog who does not understand the science.

Then you understand my contention with the "consensus on climate change".