Forecasters say El Nino may be developing

Jun 08, 2009

(AP) -- A new El Nino could be approaching. Sea-surface temperatures have been warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, suggesting the potential for the development of the El Nino climate phenomenon this summer, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Nino conditions are associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific and with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. A summer El Nino can lead to wetter than normal conditions in the intermountain regions of the United States and over central Chile. In an El Nino year there tend to be more Eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

In recent months conditions have been neutral - between the warmer than normal El Nino and the cooler La Nina conditions.

Water below the sea surface has been warmer than normal, NOAA said, and warm conditions both on the surface and below normally precede the development of an El Nino, changing wind patterns and potentially affecting worldwide.

Computer models that forecast climate differ, the agency noted, with some predicting arrival of El Nino while others expect continued neutral conditions.


©2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Explore further: New study confirms water vapor as global warming amplifier

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

El Nino To Affect Weather In Colorado And Western U.S.

Dec 01, 2006

Colorado's late fall snowstorms could disappear by mid-December due to the influence of an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, said Klaus Wolter, a University of Colorado at Boulder and National Oceanic and Atmospheric ...

El Nino may calm 2006 hurricane season

Sep 07, 2006

Hurricane forecasters say a weather phenomenon called El Nino may make the rest of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quieter than predicted.

Warm temps, El Nino delay lakes' freezing

Jan 12, 2007

A strong El Nino and warmer temperatures pushed back lake freeze dates for the Northeast and Midwest areas of the United States, a water scientist said.

El Nino may, or may not, soak California

Dec 15, 2006

El Nino, the periodic warming of Pacific waters, puzzles meteorologists who said they don't know whether it will bring needed rain to Southern California.

La Niña Persists

Nov 07, 2007

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in the grips of a cool La Niña, as shown by new data of sea-level heights from mid-October of 2007, collected by the U.S-French Jason altimetric satellite.

Recommended for you

User comments : 4

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

deatopmg
2 / 5 (4) Jun 08, 2009
This possible reduction in Atlantic hurricanes is a blow to the "sky is falling" crowd.

"Computer models that forecast climate differ, the agency noted, with some predicting arrival of El Nino while others expect continued neutral conditions." - great climate models! Oh well, at least we have still the choice of picking the one(s) that give us the answer that fits our belief system.
GrayMouser
1 / 5 (1) Jun 08, 2009
"Computer models that forecast climate differ, the agency noted, with some predicting arrival of El Nino while others expect continued neutral conditions." - great climate models! Oh well, at least we have still the choice of picking the one(s) that give us the answer that fits our belief system.

If the science is settled then how can these climate models differ? They are all based on known facts.
Or are they?
lengould100
5 / 5 (3) Jun 09, 2009
Or picking a belief system which ignores computer models, I suppose?
Velanarris
1 / 5 (1) Jun 10, 2009
If you really want to know what the weather is going to be, get a copy of the original farmers' almanac.