How much oil have we used?

May 07, 2009
Earth

Estimates of how much crude oil we have extracted from the planet vary wildly. Now, UK researchers have published a new estimate in the International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology that suggests we may have used more than we think.

The idea that we are running out of oil is not a new one, but do we even know how much oil we have extracted from since the first commercial oil wells were sunk in the middle of the nineteenth century? In 2008, chemists Istvan Lakatos and Julianna Lakatos-Szabo of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences theorised that less than 100 billion tonne of has been produced since 1850 and that the average annual production rate is less than 700 million barrels per year.

They compared proven reserves and estimates of yet-to-find (YTF) resources and echoed the sentiment that we will soon face oil shortages even though a substantial part of those reserves remain in the ground untapped.

Now, John Jones in the School of Engineering, at the University of Aberdeen, UK, suggests that the figures cited by Istvan Lakatos and Julianna Lakatos-Szabo for which they give no references grossly underestimates how much oil we have used already. Jones says that we have used at least 135 billion barrels of oil since 1870, the period during which J.D. Rockefeller established The Standard Oil Company and began drilling in earnest.

The oil industry now spans several generations, says Jones, and has historically been as uninterested in how much oil has been drawn as were economists, day-to-day and annual figures being of much greater concern. However, in 2005, The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in London provided a total figure of almost 1 trillion barrels of crude oil (944 billion barrels) since commercial drilling began. Even that figure does not add up, Jones explains.

He has calculated a better estimate by using the volume of a barrel (42 US gallons, or 0.16 cubic metres) and a crude oil density of 0.9 tonnes per cubic metre. ODAC's 944 billion barrels is thus the equivalent of 135 billion tonnes.

Jones explains that this figure is of the same order of magnitude as the estimate offered by Lakatos and Lakatos-Szabo, but is nevertheless 35% higher than ODAC's figure. "Their assertion that less than 100 billion tonnes has been produced is significantly inconsistent with the ODAC," says Jones. The implication is that either ODAC or the Hungarian team are incorrect in their estimates, and suggests that clarification of this important figure is now needed.

More information: "Total amounts of oil produced over the history of the industry" by Jones, in Int. J. Oil, Gas and Technology, 2009, 2, 199-200; http://www.inderscience.com/offer.php?id=24887

"Global oil demand and role of chemical EOR methods in the 21st century" by Lakatos and Lakatos-Szabo in Int. J. , Gas and Coal Technology, 2008 1, 46-64; http://www.inderscience.com/search/index.php?action=record&rec_id=16731

Source: Inderscience

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User comments : 9

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Lord_jag
2.3 / 5 (3) May 07, 2009
So... oil companies lie. It's what they are good at.
lengould100
4 / 5 (5) May 07, 2009
Who cares about historical gross production. The key issue is "how much will be available for importation in ten years, 20 years". Given there hasen't been a discovery on the scale of Gahwar since it was discovered in the 1960's, OPEC countries have an economic interest in falsely inflating their published reserve figures, the most recently touted major discovery TUPI off Brazil which got the whole industry into a tizzy has a total potential to supply the US for about 8x10^9/2x10^7 = 400 days, or the world for 100 days. So perhaps Santos Basin has 10x that. World for 1000 days. How many more of those are there?

Time to start taking this stuff seriously. If we don't do some very smart planning, our entire system of civilization is in jeopardy.
Velanarris
3.8 / 5 (4) May 07, 2009
Who cares about historical gross production. The key issue is "how much will be available for importation in ten years, 20 years". Given there hasen't been a discovery on the scale of Gahwar since it was discovered in the 1960's, OPEC countries have an economic interest in falsely inflating their published reserve figures, the most recently touted major discovery TUPI off Brazil which got the whole industry into a tizzy has a total potential to supply the US for about 8x10^9/2x10^7 = 400 days, or the world for 100 days. So perhaps Santos Basin has 10x that. World for 1000 days. How many more of those are there?



Time to start taking this stuff seriously. If we don't do some very smart planning, our entire system of civilization is in jeopardy.

Complete agreement here. We need to develop new systems of energy that are not petroleum based. There were only so many pools of bioslime billions of years ago.
KBK
1.6 / 5 (5) May 07, 2009
If we get the elitists and the oil companies off our backs--we'd be just fine.

We'd fix this mess.

But neither of those two groups (elitists and/or governments) want us to have any real independence from them.

It really -IS- that simple.
trucks
1 / 5 (6) May 07, 2009
The truth is we have to much oil .
The proof of this is the covert attack Big Oil is doing on the Alcohol Solution
for motor fuels . relentless ! gk
http://www.alcoho...gas.com/
GrayMouser
1 / 5 (1) May 07, 2009
How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
GrayMouser
4.2 / 5 (5) May 07, 2009
So... oil companies lie. It's what they are good at.

So do politicians, eco-activists, some scientists, the press, your parents, my parents,... Everybody lies. Some times intentionally. The question is how important their lies are to what your interested in and how it ends up clouding the issue.
Ashibayai
4.3 / 5 (3) May 08, 2009
In the end it's just a matter of us using a natural resource to our advantage and raising the standard of living. Given that the resource is finite, how will we deal with the drop in standard of living? If the shortage comes quick there will be dire consequences, but if oil companies are as greedy as we think they'll draw the "supply and demand card" out as long as possible to reap maximum profits.

Hopefully by the time that comes, we'll have found an relatively inexpensive solution.
lengould100
not rated yet May 11, 2009
Keep hoping, there, Ashibayai. That'll fix it.