Study: Cosmic rays do not explain global warming

Dec 17, 2008
Study: Cosmic rays do not explain global warming
Sudden outbreaks of intense solar activity lead to a strong reduction of cosmic rays. Researchers have studied such events and their impact on cloud formation. Photo: Freefoto

(PhysOrg.com) -- A new study supports earlier findings by stating that changes in cosmic rays most likely do not contribute to climate change.

It is sometimes claimed that changes in radiation from space, so-called galactic cosmic rays, can be one of the causes of global warming. A new study, investigating the effect of cosmic rays on clouds, concludes that the likelihood of this is very small.

The study Cosmic rays, cloud condensation nuclei and clouds – a reassessment using MODIS data was recently published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. A group of researchers from the University of Oslo, Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), CICERO Center for Climate and Environmental Research, and the University of Iceland, are behind the study.

Unlikely that cosmic rays affect warming

There are scientific uncertanties about cosmic rays and cloud formation. Some researchers have claimed that a reduction of cosmic rays during the last decades has contributed to the global temperature rise. The hypothesis is that fewer cosmic rays causes fewer cloud droplets and reduced droplet size, and that this again causes global warming, since reduced cloud droplets would reflect less energy from the sun back to space. However, the researchers who stick to this hypothesis find little support amongst colleagues.

“According to our research, it does not look like reduced cosmic rays leads to reduced cloud formation”, says Jon Egill Kristjansson, a professor at the University of Oslo.

This result is in line with most other research in the field. As far as Kristjansson knows, no studies have proved a correlation between reduced cosmic rays and reduced cloud formation.

Kristjansson also points out that most research shows no reduction in cosmic rays during the last decades, and that an astronomic explanation of today’s global warming therefore seems very unlikely.

Studied solar outbreaks

Kristjansson and his collegaues have used observations from so-called Forbush decrease events: Sudden outbreaks of intense solar activity that lead to a strong reduction of cosmic rays, lasting for a couple of days. The researchers have identified 22 such events between 2000 and 2005.

Based on data from the space-borne MODIS instrument, the researchers have investigated whether these events have affected cloud formation. While previous studies have mainly considered cloud cover, the high spatial and spectral resolution of the MODIS data also allows for a more thorough study of microphysical parameters such as cloud droplet size, cloud water content and cloud optical depth.

No statistically significant correlations were found between any of the four cloud parameters and galactic cosmic rays.

“Reduced cosmic rays did not lead to reduced cloud formation, either during the outbreaks or during the days that followed. Indeed, following some of the events we could see a reduction, but following others there was an increase in cloud formation. We did not find any patterns in the way the clouds changed”, Kristjansson explains.

By focusing on pristine Southern Hemisphere ocean regions, the researchers examined areas where a cosmic ray signal should be easier to detect than elsewhere.

Supporting other recent work

Joanna Haigh from Imperial College London has also studied possible links between solar variability and modern-day climate change.

“This is a careful piece of work by Jon Egill Kristjansson that appears to find no evidence for the reputed link between cosmic rays and clouds," she commented to BBC.

“It's supporting other recent work that also found no relationship," Haigh added.

Paper: www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/7373… acp-8-7373-2008.html

Provided by CICERO Center for Climate and Environmental Research

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Thnder
3.3 / 5 (16) Dec 17, 2008
"Study: Cosmic rays do not explain global warming"
Should read, IMOP and Admittedly I am no expert.
"No studies have proved a correlation between cosmic rays and cloud formation."

The article covers clouds vs rays nothing else that I noticed. While clouds may indeed play a part in global warming it is not the only part.
Global warming covers a multitude of areas that the Cosmic Rays MAY lend a hand to. I would think that a definitive analysis of the rays and the other areas would be in order before a headline like this could be used.
This article does not seem as decisive as its headline would lead me to believe.
MikeB
2.9 / 5 (24) Dec 17, 2008
In unrelated news:

Three global climate model programmers recently died in the bitter -15F temperatures in Denver.
Before they started their hike, they reportedly told their friends, "There is no way it will get below zero, we constructed the models and it will not even get below freezing tonight."
QubitTamer
3.1 / 5 (17) Dec 17, 2008
First, LOLs to MikeB for that comment.

Second, does anyone but the most unwashed rube notice that this says nothing about variations in Solar infrared energy output which is commonly called HEAT? Did anyone REALLY think that high energy cosmic ionizing partical radiation was a factor in increased global warming? This is like being hit by a car and wondering what the fuzzy dice hanging from the rear view mirror of said car contributed to your injuries...

Also for what it's worth Seth Borenstein, the completely unjournalistic non-objective 'science' writer for the AP has had his ass handed to him all over the internet for his fantasy piece of claptrap that he vomited up on Monday. Borenstein or as i like to refer to him, Moronstein, can be googled and linked to every far left greenie-weenie global warming scare mongering group out there.

There's more actual fact checked objective journalism in these comment spaces than what constitutes news from the old media these days...
barakn
2.7 / 5 (19) Dec 17, 2008
There goes MikeB again, demonstrating his confusion over the difference between climate and weather.
MikeB
3 / 5 (14) Dec 17, 2008
Bar,
It's a joke... laugh it up man. You are demonstrating your confusion over the difference between your but and a hole in the ground.
freethinking
3.3 / 5 (16) Dec 17, 2008
Hey.... according to the solar cycle theory, if we hit solar minimum, then temperatures should drop. We hit minimum...... any record cold temperatures of late? Just asking..... If this year we are the coldest.... does this lend credence to the theory?
GrayMouser
2.9 / 5 (15) Dec 17, 2008
"This result is in line with most other research in the field. As far as Kristjansson knows, no studies have proved a correlation between reduced cosmic rays and reduced cloud formation. "

Try checking the research at CERN.
(http://aps.arxiv....8v1.pdf)

Of course the "as far as..." covers a multitude of sins.
M_N
3 / 5 (8) Dec 17, 2008
Thanks - nice article GrayMouser.

The link is a bit broken though - need to remove the parenthesis at the end.
Soylent
3.3 / 5 (12) Dec 17, 2008
Second, does anyone but the most unwashed rube notice that this says nothing about variations in Solar infrared energy output which is commonly called HEAT?


There are very accurate data for solar output and it fails to account for the observed climate data. Serious climate change sceptics have long since moved on to richer pastures; leaving only the climate change denier movement grasping at that particular set of straws.

Did anyone REALLY think that high energy cosmic ionizing partical radiation was a factor in increased global warming?


Yes and it's not an unreasonable proposition. Perhaps you've heard of cloud seeding with silver iodide? The idea is that cosmic rays could ionize the air and form nucleation points for the formation of droplets or ice crystals in much the same way as silver iodide does.
Noein
2.3 / 5 (13) Dec 17, 2008
This must be a devastating blow to the Cosmic Raylian sect of the Church of Global Warming Denialism... Aww...who am I kidding? Once a denialist, always a denialist. No amount of facts or evidence can shake their deep religious faith. It's just like dealing with the young Earth creationists. Their religious beliefs are absolute, fixed, and immutable.
MikeB
3.2 / 5 (11) Dec 18, 2008
"Hey.... according to the solar cycle theory, if we hit solar minimum, then temperatures should drop. We hit minimum...... any record cold temperatures of late? Just asking..... If this year we are the coldest.... does this lend credence to the theory?"


Freethinking this article talks about a few of the recent cold and snow records:

http://www.invest...cid=1501&status=article&id=314237030606167

I have no clue why the mainstream media doesn't cover this sruff. (I really do.)
MikeB
3 / 5 (4) Dec 18, 2008
Can't get link to work...
MikeB
3 / 5 (4) Dec 18, 2008
Freethinking,

Google this... The Day After (Inauguration)

The article I referred to was the #1 hit.
Sorry about bad link...

Mike
mikiwud
2.6 / 5 (10) Dec 18, 2008
Cosmic ray causing cloud creation can be experimentaly reproduced in the laboratory. So, even if it does not have a great effect, it does acually exist. Alot of things have been shown to effect the climate (or local weather) so that alone disproves the IPCC case that only CO2 is the main driver.Warmists need to discredit ALL these to hold their belief, and that seems to be what is happening.
As usual, they show no proof, just try to sow doubt. They then refer back to this doubt they cannot prove as if it is fact just because it has been published.

Roach
4.4 / 5 (7) Dec 18, 2008
I agree there is a differance in between weather and climate so how about a curve snow ball. This morning the residents of Las Vegas awoke to a healthy cover of snow. The two Winter storms this week are certainly weather, but that particular weather pattern is not a typical event in the desert, and is being compared to events 30 or 40 years ago. It's a record snowfall for the strip. So is that a climate shift. We're no longer talking about snow in denver, or increased rain along costal areas, but two temperature and precipitation events that are atypical for a specified region. AGWist, Spin it.
lengould100
2.1 / 5 (7) Dec 18, 2008
One thing the is clearly evident among the comments. Any commentor with ay apparent scientific knowledge gets a VERY low rating.

This site should change its name to ReligOrg.com
MikeB
2 / 5 (4) Dec 18, 2008
Lengo,
Everyone here knows what a great scientific mind lies within you...
Mike Bryant
QubitTamer
3.7 / 5 (7) Dec 18, 2008
Freethinking: Solar Minimum relates to sunspot and solar flare activity in the 11 year solar cycle (just one of many solar cycles btw).

In case you missed it in 3rd grade science class, sunspots are thousands of degrees COOLER than the surrounding solar surface which is why they appear black in pictures (they're not really black of course, just black relative to the thick filter used to take a good picture of the sun).

So solar minimum actually represents an INCREASE in the thermal output of the sun which COULD mean warmer temperatures on the earth.

Again though, anyone claiming to have a working climate model that will accurately match the fossil record of the last few million years also has some beachfront land at the top of Mount Everest to sell you.

Oh and New Orleans, Louisiana also got the most snow in 30 years. Someone got a climate model for global warming that predicted that?
lengould100
2 / 5 (4) Dec 18, 2008
New Scientist: "We cannot ascribe the anomaly to any particular physical factor, like anthropogenic greenhouse gases," says Zorita. "But our conclusions are consistent with those of the fourth IPCC report," which states there is a very high probability that human emissions are causing global warming

http://www.newsci...nce.html
lengould100
4 / 5 (4) Dec 18, 2008
MikeB: Amen to you ;
Velanarris
4.3 / 5 (6) Dec 18, 2008
This past week the Vegas Strip had to be plowed for the first time in 30 years. New England states have been recording record cold temperatures, most fo the midwest US is breaking cold temp records. The list goes on and on.
thinking
4.4 / 5 (7) Dec 18, 2008
I told someone 4-5 months ago that if the theory of solar cycle was correct, that this winter would be the coldest in a long time. Well as I sit snowed in in Washington state with record snow fall.... with the coldest year in many many years... and all around the country record cold temps... also, just talked to a Russian neighbor.. and they stated it is unusually cold in Russia... Record cold everywhere... it looks like solar cycle theory has received a very big boost. Most global warming predictions have failed to occure.
thinking
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 18, 2008
Hummm.... more people doubting man made global warming....

http://businessan...953.aspx

thermodynamics
2.6 / 5 (10) Dec 19, 2008
It is interesting that the year 2008 is about to go into the books as the 10th warmest year on record. If it seems cold to you, you might be acclimatizing. :-)

It may be cold in some spots (even setting records), but that is known as weather and it varies considerably from location to location and year to year.

As for the Arctic blasts we are getting, did you stop to think they are coming from somewhere? Where would that be? That would be the "Arctic" were those who are trying to predict AGW effects say should be warming fastest. What does that mean for a zero-sum heat balance (as a differential approximation to the amount of heat difference from year to year)? It means that there is increased motion of warm air from the mid and lower latitudes that is moving to higher latitudes and cold air from the higher latitudes that is moving toward the lower latitudes. That is exactly how the heat engine of the earth works (moving moisture and air). The motion of more cold air South in our area means there is more motion of warm air North in another area. The result is mixing with the Northern polar region getting more heat. Lets see how the Arctic summer looks this coming year.

I expect this will get the traditional "1" rating from MikeB and the other people who react to any hint that someone might disagree with them over the possibility of CO2 and the warming of the earth and use principles to try to show how things work. Don't disappoint me Mike.
Velanarris
4.4 / 5 (7) Dec 19, 2008
I expect this will get the traditional "1" rating from MikeB and the other people who react to any hint that someone might disagree with them over the possibility of CO2 and the warming of the earth and use principles to try to show how things work. Don't disappoint me Mike.
No, you typically get a 1 for tossing out falsehoods like
It is interesting that the year 2008 is about to go into the books as the 10th warmest year on record. If it seems cold to you, you might be acclimatizing. :-)
The only people calling this the 10th warmest yeazr rely on the ground based temperature readings.

Let me show you why I don't trust them, (data tampering aside).

MMTS Temp monitor located next to a gas grill:

http://wattsupwit...pg?w=518&h=392

NOAA monitor in the center of waste water treatment plant: http://gallery.su...loadItem&g2_itemId=38370&g2_serialNumber=2

Santa Rosa Temp station:

http://wattsupwit...ore-4455
thermodynamics
1.5 / 5 (8) Dec 19, 2008
Vel: Great to hear from you. I am sure MikeB will be right behind.

Lets see. You are saying that the there are a couple of sensor systems that are shown to be in strange locations and you are presenting them as A) Not valid. B) Part of the global sensor network (I have a weather station in my back yard, but it is not part of any network). So, that means that the entire weather sensing program is to be tossed away. Very deep thinking Vel.

Then you state that I am talking only about ground based temperature measurements. On top of that I know your contempt for any of the annual weather models. So, let me take you on a tour.

First, a prediction in January of about where 2008 should rank in the list of high temperature years:

http://www.metoff...103.html

Hmmmmmm.... Seems to be pretty close.

Then if you can read graphs, here is a good set of all kinds of graphics that I bet just frosts you (AGC?).

http://data.giss..../graphs/

Then here is a great site that explains how the troposphere is heating but not the upper atmosphere (as well as information about the oceans etc). The interesting thing is that we expect the troposphere to heat differently from the upper atmosphere due to the absorption by water vapor, CO2 and other GHGs in the lower atmosphere. Who would have guessed that is what happens when we actually measure?

http://www.ncdc.n...ing.html

I know that NOAA, NASA, and the UK met office don't rank with your "Whatsupwiththat" site but I have to do my best because I try to constrain myself to scientific data from sites with actual resources and PhDs doing the heavy lifting.

I'm sure this will be meaningless to you and Mike, but I hope someone else gets an opportunity to take a look to see that you just haven't gotten it right yet.
Velanarris
4.3 / 5 (6) Dec 19, 2008
Vel: Great to hear from you. I am sure MikeB will be right behind.

Lets see. You are saying that the there are a couple of sensor systems that are shown to be in strange locations and you are presenting them as A) Not valid. B) Part of the global sensor network (I have a weather station in my back yard, but it is not part of any network). So, that means that the entire weather sensing program is to be tossed away. Very deep thinking Vel.

Then you state that I am talking only about ground based temperature measurements. On top of that I know your contempt for any of the annual weather models. So, let me take you on a tour.

First, a prediction in January of about where 2008 should rank in the list of high temperature years:

http://www.metoff...103.html

Hmmmmmm.... Seems to be pretty close.

Then if you can read graphs, here is a good set of all kinds of graphics that I bet just frosts you (AGC?).

http://data.giss..../graphs/

Then here is a great site that explains how the troposphere is heating but not the upper atmosphere (as well as information about the oceans etc). The interesting thing is that we expect the troposphere to heat differently from the upper atmosphere due to the absorption by water vapor, CO2 and other GHGs in the lower atmosphere. Who would have guessed that is what happens when we actually measure?

http://www.ncdc.n...ing.html

I know that NOAA, NASA, and the UK met office don't rank with your "Whatsupwiththat" site but I have to do my best because I try to constrain myself to scientific data from sites with actual resources and PhDs doing the heavy lifting.

I'm sure this will be meaningless to you and Mike, but I hope someone else gets an opportunity to take a look to see that you just haven't gotten it right yet.


Those stations I linked are included in the NOAA and GISS temperature data. Feel free to check their site ID as included in the links against the GISS and NOAA databases.

Secondly, let's take a look at the data that the entire AGCC movement is based off of and the fact it has been completely falsified.

http://www.john-d...eco2.htm

Of special relevance is the fact that current CO2 measurements are taken from a base located on the side of an active volcano and that the original measurements of pre-industrial revolution CO2 conc entration were tampered with initially.

http://www.john-d...fig2.gif

Now if you had a single working link I might be able to speak with you on your other suppositions, however, I cannot as your source material is absent.


What I can speak to you on is the tropospheric effect as theorized by AGCC. There should be a temperature anomaly measured in the troposphere showing a high heat concentration jsut before the tropopause, however, as you stated above, there is not, as the heat exchanges between the troposphere and upper atmosphere have not shifted. Meaning your argument undermines your point and stance.

MikeB
4.3 / 5 (6) Dec 19, 2008
Thermodynamics,
You said, " That would be the "Arctic" were those who are trying to predict AGW effects say should be warming fastest."
Actually they USED to say that AGW effects would be more pronounced at BOTH poles. That didn't work out since the Antarctic is cooling, so NOW it's just the Arctic that should be warming.
Anyway, therm, congratulations only you could use the recent (and coming) Arctic wintery blasts as evidence of warming.
Mike Bryant
SteveS
1.8 / 5 (5) Dec 21, 2008
Thermodynamics, Mikeb, Velanarris

Re 10th warmest year on record

If the dodgy weather stations were seriously affecting the figures, this should be obvious when compared to the sea surface temperatures.

However both the Hadley Centres HADSST and NOAA NCDL SST also show 2008 to be the 10th warmest.

MikeB
4 / 5 (4) Dec 21, 2008
Last time I checked, 2008 isn't over yet. Why don't we wait until we get RSS and UAH satellite data? It'll only be a couple more weeks.
MikeB
4.3 / 5 (6) Dec 21, 2008
Speaking of tenth warmest. What if it IS the tenth warmest? Hasn't CO2 been rising merrily along the last ten years? It should be in the top two or three warmest according to 95% of the Global Climate Models. What will it turn out to be on the satellite temperature records?
SteveS
5 / 5 (1) Dec 21, 2008
The meteorlogical year runs from December to November so that it can be split into the four seasons DJF Winter, MAM Spring, JJA Summer, and SON Autumn. The 2008 meteorlogical year ended 30th November.
SteveS
5 / 5 (3) Dec 21, 2008
I doubt that any climate models make predictions for individual years. Climate is weather averaged over a number of years, typically 30.

Natural variation over any ten year period is on average over 0.25 C, the 2008 figure is only 0.21 C lower than the 1998 high.

With this in mind I wouldn't use the last ten year's figures to claim either warming or cooling.
MikeB
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 21, 2008
I found a graph comparing the temperature records over the satellite era. This graph has the four main suspects, GISS and HADCRUT for ground based and UAH and RSS for satellite:

http://www.climat...8_a3.gif

The article it comes from is here:

http://www.climat.../?p=4687

Here is a quotation from the article:

"We now have a 30-year period of satellite records. Within that period, 2008 ranked 26th out of 30 (5th coldest), 23rd for RSS, 16th for CRU and 15th for NOAA and GISS. Tropical temperatures in 2008 were lower in 4 of 5 indices than in 1988, the year of Hansen's famous testimony."

It looks like we are just about where we were thirty years ago.

SteveS
3 / 5 (2) Dec 21, 2008
I'm happy to believe that 2008 ranks 26th out of 30 when it comes to tropical temperatures (20N - 20S)as stated in Steve McIntyre's article

But that doesn't change the fact that globally 2008 is the 10th warmest out of 159 (HADCRUT) and 10th warmest out of 128 (NCDC). Both these figures are corroborated by their respective global Sea Surface Temperature data (HADSST and NOAA NCDC SST) so cannot be attributed to a few poorly sited weather stations.
MikeB
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 21, 2008
The tropics is where the fingerprint of Global Warming should reside according to the IPCC... and yet the warming is not happening.

The tenth warmest indicates that we are cooling. Why isn't it the warmest in view of the continued accelerated production of CO2? Is this the coolest year of this millenium?

These recent Arctic blasts have caused more deaths than the any warming that has taken place.

http://wattsupwit...me-cold/

So it seems that it is cooling this millenium, and the cooling is turning out to be more deadly than warming. People in past times realized that cold is more deadly than heat. We, however have forgotten that fact.
MikeB
3 / 5 (4) Dec 21, 2008
I would like to see this headline:

NASA says: 2008 Coldest Year of the Millenium
thermodynamics
1 / 5 (5) Dec 21, 2008
Vel, MikeB and the rest:

I assume my links were broken by the switch to the new format. Let me try again. I have usually been able to copy them in and have them work before the switch. So, here they are in order:

http://www.metoff...103.html

http://data.giss..../graphs/

http://www.ncdc.n...ing.html

And here is another one for good measure:

http://www.metoff...216.html

I am sure the sites won't do much for some who will discount them just because they are produced by government agencies. I am sure the private rant sites like "wattsupwiththat" are much more reliable in your opinion. I am just including them for people who really care about data as opposed to "conspiracies".

The bottom line is that the traditional scientific sites seem to be of the opinion (based on data no less) that 2008 is the tenth warmest since reliable records started. It just seems cooler in respect to the hot ones we have had for the past decade.

Thanks SteveS for pointing out the bounds of the meteorological year. I hope your explanation clears up why the governmental sites are reporting it as in the books.
MikeB
5 / 5 (3) Dec 21, 2008
Thermo,
Why no satellite data?
MikeB
5 / 5 (5) Dec 21, 2008
Thermo,
I think that if you edit anything at all on your comment, it breaks all the links. So it's probably not a good idea to edit anything after submittal.
thermodynamics
1 / 5 (3) Dec 21, 2008
MikeB:

I seem to be having problems even getting things to post right now. Let me try adding the links as text to see if this works.

"
http://www.metoff...103.html

http://data.giss..../graphs/

http://www.ncdc.n...ing.html

http://www.metoff...216.html

"
thermodynamics
1 / 5 (3) Dec 21, 2008
Let me know if the last set of links works or not. The site is quirky in that it won't even quote a block. The links work for me but I have no idea if they work for anyone else. I certainly am not going to try to edit them.
MikeB
not rated yet Dec 21, 2008
Your links are all working now...
thermodynamics
1.3 / 5 (4) Dec 21, 2008
MikeB asked: Why no NASA data?

The reason is that I have not found any primary (NASA published) satellite information on the temperature profile change. However, in my search I did run across this, which addresses the role of water from a more rigorous perspective.

http://www.nasa.g...ing.html

I am interested in what NASA has to say. If anyone with primary information on the NASA satellite assessment of the change in the atmosphere temperature profile could post the site it would be appreciated.
SteveS
5 / 5 (1) Dec 22, 2008
Satellite Data Link

http://vortex.nss...lic/msu/

tltglhmam_5.2 in msu.tgz gives monthy means up to Nov 2008
SteveS
2.3 / 5 (3) Dec 22, 2008
"These recent Arctic blasts have caused more deaths than the any warming that has taken place."

This article only addresses deaths directly caused by extreme weather events in a single developed country.

Extreme heat and cold are contributing factors in many other deaths not directly cuased by hyperthermia and hypothermia. Droughts are also an extreme weather event and cause famine and desease in developing countries.

Any study in to mortality due to climate change (global cooling or warming) should be global in scale and include deaths caused by secondary effects such as famine and desease caused by drought or flooding.
MikeB
3.7 / 5 (3) Dec 22, 2008
MikeB
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 22, 2008
I believe the study referred to in my previous comment illustrates quite well that the proximate cause of deaths from extreme weather events is poverty. Hurricane Katrina killed less than a thousand with less than stellar preparation and follow up. The numbers are always much worse in poor countries.
Our monies should be used to help poor countries become rich, not to fight the Climate Phantom.
SteveS
3 / 5 (2) Dec 22, 2008
A very good study, but its figures for deaths caused by extreme temperature events could only have taken into account those caused by hyperthermia and hypothermia. Otherwise the 30000 deaths attributed to the 2003 European heatwave would have been included.

http://www.eurosu...leId=552

MikeB
3.7 / 5 (3) Dec 22, 2008
This report:

http://www.planet...tory.htm

puts the number under 15,000 and blames the deaths on the government and on insufficient cash. So again it seems that poverty is the greatest killer.
MikeB
3.7 / 5 (3) Dec 22, 2008
The author of the study did a follow up recently:

http://wattsupwit...me-heat/
SteveS
3 / 5 (2) Dec 22, 2008
Mike

Your first link refers to France alone. For Europe as a whole the figure was well over 30000

read
http://www.eurosu...leId=552
MikeB
4 / 5 (4) Dec 22, 2008
Steve... you are correct... Still poverty is the killer...
MikeB
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 22, 2008
SteveS
5 / 5 (4) Dec 22, 2008
You will get no argument from me regarding poverty. It's undoubtedly the worlds biggest killer.
MikeB
5 / 5 (5) Dec 22, 2008
To the extent that the war on CO2 impoverishes the world, it will remove the tools to fight severe weather.
MikeB
5 / 5 (4) Dec 23, 2008
One more on cold deaths...

http://wattsupwit...comments
Velanarris
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 24, 2008
Vel, MikeB and the rest:

I assume my links were broken by the switch to the new format. Let me try again. I have usually been able to copy them in and have them work before the switch. So, here they are in order:

http://www.metoff...103.html

http://data.giss..../graphs/

http://www.ncdc.n...ing.html

And here is another one for good measure:

http://www.metoff...216.html

I am sure the sites won't do much for some who will discount them just because they are produced by government agencies. I am sure the private rant sites like "wattsupwiththat" are much more reliable in your opinion. I am just including them for people who really care about data as opposed to "conspiracies".

The bottom line is that the traditional scientific sites seem to be of the opinion (based on data no less) that 2008 is the tenth warmest since reliable records started. It just seems cooler in respect to the hot ones we have had for the past decade.

Thanks SteveS for pointing out the bounds of the meteorological year. I hope your explanation clears up why the governmental sites are reporting it as in the books.

Below is a list of peer reviewed papers and studies I think you should read before you toss yourself in with the other AGW theory supporters.

Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth's climate (Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50, pp. 955-968, 2007) - Richard Mackey

Solar activity variations and global temperature (Energy [Oxford], vol. 18, no. 12, pp. 1273-1284, 1993) - Eigil Friis-Christensen

Solar and climate signal records in tree ring width from Chile (AD 1587%u20131994) (Planetary and Space Science, vol. 55, issue 1-2, pp. 158-164, January 2007) - Nivaor Rodolfo Rigozoa, Daniel Jean Roger Nordemann, Heitor Evangelista da Silva, Mariza Pereira de Souza Echer, Ezequiel Echer

Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude climate variability (International Journal of Climatology, vol. 22, issue 8, pp. 901-915, 27 May 2002) - Ronald E. Thresher

Solar Cycle Variability, Ozone, and Climate (Science, vol. 284. no. 5412, pp. 305 - 308, 9 April 1999) - Drew Shindell, David Rind, Nambeth Balachandran, Judith Lean, Patrick Lonergan

Solar Forcing of Drought Frequency in the Maya Lowlands (Science, vol. 292. no. 5520, pp. 1367-1370, 18 May 2001) - David A. Hodell, Mark Brenner, Jason H. Curtis, Thomas Guilderson

Solar total irradiance variation and the global sea surface temperature record (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 96, no. D2, pp. 2835%u20132844, 1991) - George C. Reid

Solar variability and climate change: Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 25, issue 7, pp. 1035-1038, 1998) - E. W. Cliver, V. Boriakoff, J. Feynman

Solar variability and ring widths in fossil trees (Il Nuovo Cimento C, vol. 19, no. 4, July 1996) - S. Cecchini, M. Galli, T. Nanni, L. Ruggiero

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia (Space Science Reviews, vol. 125, issue 1-4, pp. 67-79, 22 December 2006) - J. Beer, M. Vonmoos, R. Muscheler

Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth's temperature (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34, L08203, 2007) - H. B. Hammel, G.W. Lockwood

Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34, L14703, 2007) - Charles D. Camp, Ka Kit Tung

The link between the solar dynamo and climate - The evidence from a long mean air temperature series from Northern Ireland (Irish Astronomical Journal, vol. 21, no. 3-4, pp. 251-254, 09/1994) - C.J. Butler, D.J. Johnston

The Sun%u2013Earth Connection in Time Scales from Years to Decades and Centuries (Space Science Reviews, v. 95, issue 1/2, pp. 625-637, 2001) - T. I. Pulkkinen, H. Nevanlinna, P. J. Pulkkinen, M. Lockwood

Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 32, L16712, 2005) - Willie Soon

Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate (Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, vol. 57, issue 8, pp. 835-845, July 1995) - K. Lassen, E. Friis-Christensen

Variations in Radiocarbon Concentration and Sunspot Activity (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 66, p. 273, 01/1961) %u2013 M. Stuiver

Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages (Science, vol. 194. no. 4270, pp. 1121-1132, 10 December 1976) - J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton

Variations of solar coronal hole area and terrestrial lower tropospheric air temperature from 1979 to mid-1998: astronomical forcings of change in Earth's climate? (New Astronomy, vol. 4, issue 8, pp. 563-579, January 2000) - W. Soon, S. Baliunas, E. S. Posmentier, P. Okeke

What do we really know about the Sun-climate connection? (Advances in Space Research, vol. 20, issue 4-5, pp. 913-921, 1997) - Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark

Will We Face Global Warming in the Nearest Future? (Geomagnetism i Aeronomia, vol. 43, pp. 124-127, 2003) - V. S. Bashkirtsev, G. P. Mashnich


Solar Cosmic Rays

Solar variability influences on weather and climate: Possible connections through cosmic ray fluxes and storm intensification (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 94, no. D12, pp. 14783-14792, October 1989) - Brian A, Tinsley, Geoffrey M. Brown, Philip H. Scherrer

Hale-cycle effects in cosmic-ray intensity during the last four cycles (Astrophysics and Space Science, vol. 246, no. 1, March 1996) - H. Mavromichalaki, A. Belehaki, X. Rafios, I. Tsagouri

Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage--a Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships (Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 59, no. 11, pp. 1225-1232, July 1997) - Henrik Svensmark, Eigil Friis-Christensen

Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate (Physical Review Letters, vol. 81, issue 22, pp. 5027-5030, 30 November 1998) - Henrik Svensmark

Reply to comments on "Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage--a missing link in solar-climate relationships" (Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 62, issue 1, pp. 79-80, January 2000) - Henrik Svensmark, Eigil Friis-Christensen

Cosmic rays and Earth's climate (Space Science Reviews, v. 93, issue 1/2, pp. 175-185, July 2000) - Henrik Svensmark

Cosmic rays and climate--The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global warming (Astronomy & Geophysics, vol. 41, issue 4, pp 4. 18-4. 22, August 2000) - E Pallé Bagó, C J Butler

Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate (Space Science Reviews, v. 94, issue 1/2, pp. 215-230, November 2000) - Nigel Marsh, Henrik Svensmark

Low cloud properties influenced by cosmic rays (Physical Review Letters, vol. 85, issue 23, pp. 5004-5007, December 2000) - Nigel D Marsh, Henrik Svensmark

On the relationship of cosmic ray flux and precipitation (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 28, no. 8, pp. 1527%u20131530, 2001) - Dominic R. Kniveton and Martin C. Todd

Altitude variations of cosmic ray induced production of aerosols: Implications for global cloudiness and climate (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 107, no. A7, pp. SIA 8-1, July 2002) - Fangqun Yu

The Spiral Structure of the Milky Way, Cosmic Rays, and Ice Age Epochs on Earth (New Astronomy, vol. 8, issue 1, pp. 39-77, January 2003) - Nir J. Shaviv

Galactic cosmic ray and El Niño-Southern Oscillation trends in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 low-cloud properties (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 108, no. D6, pp. AAC 6-1, March 2003) - Nigel Marsh, Henrik Svensmark

The effects of galactic cosmic rays, modulated by solar terrestrial magnetic fields, on the climate (Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, vol. 6, no. 5, October 2004) - V. A. Dergachev, P. B. Dmitriev, O. M. Raspopov, B. Van Geel

Formation of large NAT particles and denitrification in polar stratosphere: possible role of cosmic rays and effect of solar activity (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 4, issue 9/10, pp. 2273-2283, November 2004) - F. Yu

Long-term variations of the surface pressure in the North Atlantic and possible association with solar activity and galactic cosmic rays (Advances in Space Research, vol. 35, issue 3, pp. 484-490, 2005) - S. V. Veretenenko, V. A. Dergachev, P. B. Dmitriyev

Galactic Cosmic Rays and Insolation are the Main Drivers of Global Climate of the Earth (arXiv:hep-ph/0506208, June 2005) - V. D. Rusov, I. V. Radin, A. V. Glushkov, V. N. Vaschenko, V. N. Pavlovich, T. N. Zelentsova, O. T. Mihalys, V. A. Tarasov, A. Kolos

On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 110, issue A8, August 2005) - Nir J. Shaviv

Cosmic rays and the biosphere over 4 billion years (Astronomische Nachrichten, vol. 327, issue 9, Page 871, 2006) - Henrik Svensmark

The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays (Physics/0612145v1, December 2006) - Henrik Svensmark

Interstellar-Terrestrial Relations: Variable Cosmic Environments, The Dynamic Heliosphere, and Their Imprints on Terrestrial Archives and Climate (Space Science Reviews, vol. 127, no. 1-4, December 2006) - K. Scherer, H. Fichtner, T. Borrmann, J. Beer, L. Desorgher, E. Flükiger, H. Fahr, S. Ferreira, U. Langner, M. Potgieter, B. Heber, J. Masarik, N. Shaviv, J. Veizer

Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds (Royal Society of London Proceedings Series A, vol. 462, issue 2068, p. 1221-1233, April 2006) - R. Giles Harrison, David B. Stephenson

Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges (Astronomy & Geophysics, vol. 48 issue 1, pp. 1. 18-1. 24, February 2007) - Henrik Svensmark

Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series (Journal Advances in Space Research, February 2007) - Charles A. Perrya

200-year variations in cosmic rays modulated by solar activity and their climatic response (Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, vol. 71, no. 7, July 2007) - O. M. Raspopov, V. A. Dergachev

On the possible contribution of solar-cosmic factors to the global warming of XX century (Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics, vo. 71, no. 7, July 2007) - M. G. Ogurtsov

Cosmic rays and climate of the Earth: possible connection (Comptes Rendus Geosciences, December 2007) - Ilya G. Usoskina, Gennady A. Kovaltsovb

Galactic Cosmic Rays - Clouds Effect and Bifurcation Model of the Earth Global Climate. Part 1. Theory (arXiv:0803. 2765, Mar 2008) -V. Rusov, A. Glushkov, V. Vaschenko, O. Mihalys, S. Kosenko, S. Mavrodiev, B. Vachev


Species Extinctions

Dangers of crying wolf over risk of extinctions (Nature 428, 799, 22 April 2004) - Richard J. Ladle, Paul Jepson, Miguel B. Araújo & Robert J. Whittaker


Temperatures

A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data (Climate Research, vol. 26: 159-173, 2004) - Ross McKitrick, Patrick J. Michaels

Analysis of trends in the variability of daily and monthly historical temperature measurements (Climate Research, vol. 10: 27-33, 1998) - Patrick J. Michaels, Robert C. Balling Jr., Russell S. Vose, Paul C. Knappenberger

Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin (Journal of Climate, vol. 19, issue 17, pp. 4276%u20134293, September 2006) - H. J. Fowler, D. R. Archer

Disparity of tropospheric and surface temperature trends: New evidence (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31, L13207, 2004) - David H. Douglass, Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels

Differential trends in tropical sea surface and atmospheric temperatures since 1979 (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 183%u2013186, 2001) - J. R. Christy, D. E. Parker, S. J. Brown, I. Macadam, M. Stendel, W. B. Norris

Documentation of uncertainties and biases associated with surface temperature measurement sites for climate change assessment (American Meteorological Society, 88:6, 913-928, 2007) - R. Pielke Sr., A. J. Nielsen-Gammon, C. Davey, J. Angel, O. Bliss, N. Doesken, M. Cai. , S. Fall, D. Niyogi, K. Gallo, R. Hale, K. G. Hubbard, X. Lin, H. Li, S. Raman

Does a Global Temperature Exist? (Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics, June 2006) - Christopher Essex, Ross McKitrick, Bjarne Andresen

Estimation and representation of long-term (>40 year) trends of Northern-Hemisphere-gridded surface temperature: A note of caution (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31, L03209, 2004) - Willie W. H. Soon, David R. Legates, Sallie L. Baliunas

Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years (Springer Wien, Volume 95, January, 2007) - Lin Zhen-Shan, Sun Xian

Nature of observed temperature changes across the United States during the 20th century (Climate Research, vol. 17: 45%u201353, 2001) - Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Robert E. Davis

Natural signals in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature record (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 27, no. 18, pp. 2905%u20132908, 2000) - Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger

Observed warming in cold anticyclones (Climate Research, vol. 14: 1%u20136, 2000) - Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Robert C. Balling Jr., Robert E. Davis

Revised 21st century temperature projections (Climate Research, vol. 23: 1%u20139, 2002) - Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Robert E. Davis

Test for harmful collinearity among predictor variables used in modeling global temperature (Climate Research, vol. 24: 15-18, 2003) - David H. Douglass, B. David Clader, John R. Christy, Patrick J. Michaels, David A. Belsley

Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 112, D06102, 2007) - John R. Christy, William B. Norris, Roy W. Spencer, Justin J. Hnilo

What may we conclude about global tropospheric temperature trends? (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 31, L06211, 2004) - J. R. Christy, W. B. Norris


Miscellaneous

A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34, L13705, 2007) - Anastasios A. Tsonis, Kyle Swanson, Sergey Kravtsov

Climate change 2007: Lifting the taboo on adaptation (Nature 445, 597-598, 8 February 2007) - Roger Pielke Jr., Gwyn Prins, Steve Rayner, Daniel Sarewitz

Floods, droughts and climate change (South Africa Journal of Science/Suid-Afr. Tydskr. Wet. vol. 91, no. 8, pp. 403-408, Aug. 1995) - W. J. R. Alexander

Global warming and malaria: a call for accuracy (Lancet Infectious Diseases, vol. 4, issue 6, pp. 323-324, June 2004) - P. Reiter, C. Thomas, P. Atkinson, S. Hay, S. Randolph, D. Rogers, G. Shanks, R. Snow, A. Spielman

Global Warming and the Next Ice Age (Science, vol. 304. no. 5669, pp. 400-402, 16 April 2004) - Andrew J. Weaver, Claude Hillaire-Marcel

Gulf Stream safe if wind blows and Earth turns (Nature 428, 601, 8 April 2004) - Carl Wunsch

Is global warming climate change? (Nature 380, 478, 11 April 1996) - Adrian H. Gordon, John A. T. Bye, Roland A. D. Byron-Scott

Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing (Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, L11813, 2006) - Toshihisa Matsui, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

Misdefining "climate change": consequences for science and action (Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 8, issue 6, pp. 548-561, December 2005) - Roger A. Pielke Jr.

New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? (Energy & Environment, vol. 14, nos. 2-3, pp. 327-350, 1 May 2003) %u2013 T. Landscheidt

No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe (Nature 425, 166-169, 11 September 2003) - Manfred Mudelsee, Michael Börngen, Gerd Tetzlaff, Uwe Grünewald

Some Coolness Concerning Global Warming (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 71, issue 3, pp. 288%u2013299, March 1990) - Richard S. Lindzen

The Ever-Changing Climate System: Adapting to Challenges (Cumberland Law Review, 36 No. 3, 493-504, 2006) - J. R.Christy

Very high-elevation Mont Blanc glaciated areas not affected by the 20th century climate change (Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 112, D09120, 2007) - C. Vincent, E. Le Meur, D. Six, M. Funk, M. Hoelzle, S. Preunkert
thermodynamics
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Vel: Thank you for the extensive list of references. This will take a while to plod through. However, I will look them over. You will not get a response back from me on these just because it will take a lot of reading to get through them. I will read them.