Climate change may boost Middle East rainfall

Aug 13, 2008

The prospect of climate change sparking food and water shortages in the Middle East is less likely than previously thought, with new research by an Australian climate scientist suggesting that rainfall will be significantly higher in key parts of the region.

Recent projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) raised fears that storm activity in the eastern Mediterranean would decline this century if global warming continues on present trends. In turn, that would have reduced rainfall by between 15 and 25 per cent over a large part of the so-called Fertile Crescent.

This is land encompassing parts of Turkey, Syria, northern Iraq, and north-eastern Iran and the strategically important headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

When University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre researcher Dr Jason Evans analysed the IPPC projections, he found that the region's agricultural base faced significant challenges as a result. About 170,000 square kilometres of viable rain-fed agricultural land would be lost; a longer dry season would limit grazing on rangelands; and changes in the timing of maximum rainfall would force farmers in northern Iran to change cropping strategies and even crop types. The results are to be published in the journal Climatic Change.

But the IPCC projections were based on the results of global modelling of climate change, which tends to obscure smaller-scale regional effects.

"The global models are good for investigating what's likely to happen on a planetary scale but the resolution is quite coarse when looking at a more localised regional scale," says Dr Evans. "It's a bit like enlarging a digital photograph until it becomes pixellated and all sorts of detail is blurred out."

"Simulating the climate of the region is a challenge for climate models, due in part to the high natural inter-annual variability, the topography of the region - which includes multiple mountain ranges and inland seas - and the presence of a slight cooling trend in recent decades despite the global trend being a warming."

So in a second far more detailed study, to be published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, Evans used regional climate modelling specific to the Middle East, and the result was very different.

It emerged that while storm activity over the eastern Mediterranean would indeed decline, moisture-bearing winds would be channelled inland more often and diverted by the Zagros Mountains, bringing an increase of over 50% in annual rainfall to the Euphrates-Tigris watershed.

"We need to confirm this result with other models, but a 50 per cent increase in rainfall in such an important agricultural area is a much more hopeful scenario than a 15 per cent decline," says Evans.

Source: University of New South Wales

Explore further: Sea floor conditions mimicked for drilling platforms

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Drought may take toll on Congo rainforest, study finds

18 hours ago

(Phys.org) —A new analysis of NASA satellite data shows Africa's Congo rainforest, the second-largest tropical rainforest in the world, has undergone a large-scale decline in greenness over the past decade.

Florida is 'Ground Zero' for sea level rise

Apr 22, 2014

Warm sunshine and sandy beaches make south Florida and its crown city, Miami, a haven for tourists, but the area is increasingly endangered by sea level rise, experts said Tuesday.

Agriculture's growing effects on rain

Apr 15, 2014

(Phys.org) —Increased agricultural activity is a rain taker, not a rain maker, according to researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and their collaborators at the University of California Los ...

India's ancient mammals survived multiple pressures

Apr 17, 2014

Most of the mammals that lived in India 200,000 years ago still roam the subcontinent today, in spite of two ice ages, a volcanic super-eruption and the arrival of people, a study reveals.

More, bigger wildfires burning western US, study shows

Apr 17, 2014

Wildfires across the western United States have been getting bigger and more frequent over the last 30 years – a trend that could continue as climate change causes temperatures to rise and drought to become ...

Recommended for you

Sea floor conditions mimicked for drilling platforms

46 minutes ago

Mobile jack-up drilling platforms used in the oil and gas industry are at risk of rejection before installation due to their use in harsher environments and deeper waters—but University of WA scientists ...

User comments : 8

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

GrayMouser
2 / 5 (4) Aug 13, 2008
Ok, they've got a 50% in the local model versus a 15% decrease in the global models...

Does anyone else think that you can't have both?
Soylent
3.8 / 5 (4) Aug 13, 2008
Ok, they've got a 50% in the local model versus a 15% decrease in the global models...

Does anyone else think that you can't have both?


I don't see the conflict. Clearly rain in the middle east as a whole can decrease while important agriculatural areas get more.
DrPhysics
2.6 / 5 (5) Aug 13, 2008
Useless article, science and information. Not worth commenting on.
MikeB
3 / 5 (8) Aug 13, 2008
"Simulating the climate of the region is a challenge for climate models"

Simulating the climate for this or any other region or any combination of regions is impossible for the climate models beyond a week or so. It is time to admit that the climate models are worthless for long range planning.
MikeB
3.9 / 5 (7) Aug 13, 2008
Climate Models - Models don't predict. Models are used to establish a statistical measure of where we expect the climate to trend.
In other words, models are used to forecast climate trends.
NCPA Study No. 308 February 2008 concluded
The Forecasting Models Are Unreliable. The Forecasters Themselves Are Unreliable.
dachpyarvile
3.3 / 5 (7) Aug 14, 2008
And...the IPCC is unreliable...
samweiss
3.5 / 5 (6) Aug 14, 2008
"Simulating the climate of the region is a challenge for climate models"

Simulating the climate for this or any other region or any combination of regions is impossible for the climate models beyond a week or so. It is time to admit that the climate models are worthless for long range planning.
Ok, they've got a 50% in the local model versus a 15% decrease in the global models...

Does anyone else think that you can't have both?


I don't see a necessary conflict either. Global models are just coarser - if one uses a regional model with finer resolution it is not unreasonable to expect small locales to vary.

There is an important difference between global *averages* and local climate!

GrayMouser
3 / 5 (4) Aug 17, 2008
"Simulating the climate of the region is a challenge for climate models"

Simulating the climate for this or any other region or any combination of regions is impossible for the climate models beyond a week or so. It is time to admit that the climate models are worthless for long range planning.
Ok, they've got a 50% in the local model versus a 15% decrease in the global models...

Does anyone else think that you can't have both?


I don't see a necessary conflict either. Global models are just coarser - if one uses a regional model with finer resolution it is not unreasonable to expect small locales to vary.

There is an important difference between global *averages* and local climate!



The problem is that the 50% increase and the 15% decrease are LOCAL rainfall predictions. Not global averages.

More news stories

Sea floor conditions mimicked for drilling platforms

Mobile jack-up drilling platforms used in the oil and gas industry are at risk of rejection before installation due to their use in harsher environments and deeper waters—but University of WA scientists ...